papazoid Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 A safety is a rare play in any game, but for it to happen in the Super Bowl as the first score of the game? No one would expect that to happen. No one would lay a bet on something so unlikely, right? Wrong. Jona Rechnitz bet $1,000 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas that the first score of the game would be a Giants safety. With 50-to-1 odds on such an unlikely score, Rechnitz is walking away from Las Vegas with a $50,000 pay day. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/man-wins-50-000-tom-brady-safety-155056494.html
Gary M Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 A safety is a rare play in any game, but for it to happen in the Super Bowl as the first score of the game? No one would expect that to happen. No one would lay a bet on something so unlikely, right? Wrong. Jona Rechnitz bet $1,000 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas that the first score of the game would be a Giants safety. With 50-to-1 odds on such an unlikely score, Rechnitz is walking away from Las Vegas with a $50,000 pay day. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/man-wins-50-000-tom-brady-safety-155056494.html The group i was with was wondering what that line was?
shrader Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 He put a thousand on that? How much money does this guy have?
KD in CA Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 He put a thousand on that? How much money does this guy have? At least $50,000 now.
papazoid Posted February 6, 2012 Author Posted February 6, 2012 He put a thousand on that? How much money does this guy have? that was exactly my first thought.....he must of had a whole bunch of crazy prop bets.
dwight in philly Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 it really doesnt seem like that much when you consider the odds of that happening. 50-1 seems doesnt strike me as 1000 -1, which i feel is more realistic. a safety on the first play?? only 50-1??
CodeMonkey Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 (edited) it really doesnt seem like that much when you consider the odds of that happening. 50-1 seems doesnt strike me as 1000 -1, which i feel is more realistic. a safety on the first play?? only 50-1?? Not the first play, the bet was the first score would be a NY safety. Edited February 6, 2012 by CodeMonkey
KD in CA Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 (edited) it really doesnt seem like that much when you consider the odds of that happening. 50-1 seems doesnt strike me as 1000 -1, which i feel is more realistic. a safety on the first play?? only 50-1?? The bet wasn't a safety on the first play, it was a safety as the first scoring play of the game. Pretty big difference. And it's now happened twice in 46 Super Bowls, so 1000-1 is a little ridiculous. Edited February 6, 2012 by KD in CT
1B4IDie Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 Which are better odds Jona Rechnitz has a gambling problem, or Rechnitz is a time traveler from the future?
RyanC883 Posted February 6, 2012 Posted February 6, 2012 it really doesnt seem like that much when you consider the odds of that happening. 50-1 seems doesnt strike me as 1000 -1, which i feel is more realistic. a safety on the first play?? only 50-1?? I agree, 50-1 seems low. 100-1, or 1000-1 seems much more like it.
Danny Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 I guarantee you that this guy did not come out on the plus side once all his bets were tallied. Who the hell would drop a grand on something like that. Serious issues.
dwight in philly Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 The bet wasn't a safety on the first play, it was a safety as the first scoring play of the game. Pretty big difference. And it's now happened twice in 46 Super Bowls, so 1000-1 is a little ridiculous. ok then! i guess i jumped the gun, but i still think the first score being a safety deserves better odds than 50-1.
silvermike Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 And a Giants safety at that - a Pats safety is a loser on that bet. Very roughly speaking, let's say a team has one safety per season (1/16 safeties per game) and two TDs and two FGs per game. So 1/65 of your scores are safeties. Cut it in half because there are two teams, I get 1 in 130 odds for a bet that paid 50:1. Not a strong play.
GOBILLS78 Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 Which are better odds Jona Rechnitz has a gambling problem, or Rechnitz is a time traveler from the future? It seems to me he's somewhere between Dock Ellis and Doc Brown.
KD in CA Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 ok then! i guess i jumped the gun, but i still think the first score being a safety deserves better odds than 50-1. Sure, but Vegas is never going to pay true odds (assuming they were even possible to calculate) on such a long shot bet. There's no point; no one is going to say "Hmmm....I'd take that bet at 75:1 but not 50:1". If you are into taking crazy long shot bets, than you play it, simple as that. That's why almost every team in the NFL is listed as a 50-1 or better shot to win next year's Super Bowl. Do the Bills really have a 50-1 shot? Of course not. But Bills fans are still going to bet it.
CodeMonkey Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 Can you imagine ole Jonas reaction when he saw the flag get thrown
Max997 Posted February 7, 2012 Posted February 7, 2012 (edited) He put a thousand on that? How much money does this guy have? that was my thought exactly...if he can afford to wager 1000 on something he assumed he would lose then 50k prob isnt a big deal to him Edited February 7, 2012 by Max997
papazoid Posted February 8, 2012 Author Posted February 8, 2012 Rechnitz owns a capital investment firm in Manhattan. He told the entertainment website that he only makes one Super Bowl bet per year. TMZ reports that Rechnitz plans to donate all the post-tax money to various charities, including one of Tom Brady's choice. He also hopes to donate $5,000 to a charity selected by Justin Tuck, the Giants defender whose pass rush forced Brady to make his illegal throw downfield. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/giants-fan-won-50-000-super-bowl-safety-191343682.html
dwight in philly Posted February 8, 2012 Posted February 8, 2012 Sure, but Vegas is never going to pay true odds (assuming they were even possible to calculate) on such a long shot bet. There's no point; no one is going to say "Hmmm....I'd take that bet at 75:1 but not 50:1". If you are into taking crazy long shot bets, than you play it, simple as that. That's why almost every team in the NFL is listed as a 50-1 or better shot to win next year's Super Bowl. Do the Bills really have a 50-1 shot? Of course not. But Bills fans are still going to bet it. on that premise you are probably correct, i guess it comes down to having the disposable cash to be able place that type of bet. if one takes a flyer on that bet, i think they deserve better odds and obviously vegas is not going to give them.
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