If i was the GM...

[Danny]

Disclaimer: Okay.. its five in the morning; havent slept, drank too much, and have nothing much to do so here i am starting a new topic based solely on self-endulgence and the purpose of entertaining myself. My suggestion is to only read this post if you really have nothing better to do because if you do; you'll probably be annoyed that i wasted your time. You have thus been warned.

 

First off, i'll proceed under the assumption that next years cap will be set at about $120mil. That gives the Bills *cough* i mean, me... about $15mil to work with. Therefore the first order of business is to resign our own players.

 

1)Stevie Johnson- Is without a doubt the top priority but comes with concerns of questionable behaviour on the field and drop issues. Stevie, however, has demonstrated toughness on the field and despite his antics tends to handle himself well with fans and media. Many believe he is not an elite#1 wideout but definitely wants to be paid like one.

Decision: Offer a 5yr/42mil. contract with moderate signing bonus

Other options: Franchise tag at approx. $9.5million next season to give us more time to resign him to a long term contract and evalutate his progression.

Reason: The contract being offered to Stevie may seem like alot to some and is without a doubt more than i'd like to pay but keep in mind this is a 5yr contract and in 5yrs the wr yearly salaries will have increased significantly. The fact that Stevie is being offered slightly less than im sure he wants may be offset by the fact that the franchise is putting faith in him longterm after only two productive years. Also keep in mind that there are times when this team must offer more than others in order to keep talented players in a small market atmosphere. The Bottom Line: i would definitely try to get him for less but wouldn't offer him much more than that unless incentives come into play.

 

2)Demetrius Bell- This is by far the hardest negotiation to take place. Everyone agrees we want him back but everyone wants him back on conditions/incentives or on the cheap. Unfortunately in the real world that does not happen because there will be teams out there desperate for a left tackle and will be willing to gamble on a guy like this to stay healthy. As one of the most coveted OT in a weak OT free agency year it will unfortunately come down to either overpaying Bell or watching him leave town. That is simply the reality of the situation.

Decison: Offer a 3yr/16mil. or 4yr/20mil. contract. Attempting to work in as much incentives as possible and minimizing future damage if he is released. (good luck with that)

Reason: Games are won in the trenches. Cliche? Yes, but its true and injuries happen (especially to this overpaid guy.. see? im bashing him already for having to pay him so much!) While many will argue that we have Chris Hairston who played well, Nix (my predecessor) himself is quoted as saying Hairston just wasnt ready. I think its best to plan for the worst when it comes to the O-line considering how bad Fitz played when we suffered injuries to it last season. With Pears making $3mil. next year at RT and Bell at LT; Hairston backing them up and a late round draft pick to add depth i feel confident our boys on the edges will pay divedends.

The Bottom Line: I know i will get slapped around a bit because of this and probably should have said "yeah i'd sign Bell to a 3yr-12mil deal with the condition he plays at least 12 games" but lets be serious... im trying to keep this as realistic as possible.

 

3)Scott Chandler- Everyone loves him. I have heard Bills fans say we should give him no more than $5 million/yr. Really? Thats all?? (sarcasm) The best tight ends make about 7-8 million dont they? To pay Chandler $5million\yr at this point in his career is risky to say the least.

Decision: No offer.

Reason: If Bell cannot be signed then Chandler would definitely be resigned. If we could not attract any big name free agents Chandler would definitely be resigned. If i was able to massage the books and free up the cash Chandler would definitely be resigned. That goes without saying.. and if i could find a way to sign them both i would. But when i crunch the numbers i'm trying to err on the side of caution. You guys have to give me a break on this one because so many things need to be sorted out before a decison is made about resigning Chandler and to how much. In order to be realistic and fair i have decided to resign either Bell or Chandler but not BOTH. (Good news though! You can still hassle me about my choice between the two if you think Chandler is more important.)

 

4)Rian Lindell- One of the franchise's most consistent kickers of all-time. Enough said.

Decision: offer a 3yr-7.5million contract

Reason: Nobody pays much attention to Lindell but everyone would talk about him constantly if we lost him and were stuck with someone who wasnt as good. Lindell is long in the tooth however which is why i would try to keep the contract legnth short. Its a modest pay increase and if his agent played hardball i would offer up some guaranteed money or find some other way to sweeten the pot.

The Bottom Line: I wont go into much detail with Lindell. I would try very hard to sign him and i dont think negotiations would fall apart. A deal should be reachable imo.

 

5)Bryan Scott and Kraig Urbik- Both players add depth and it would be great to bring them both back if the price is right.

 

 

 

 

The next thing on the Checklist is to attempt to resign a couple of key players.

 

1)Fred Jackson- I've heard alot about how he is past 30 years of age and how C.J. Spiller spelled him wonderfully and is ready to take the reigns. This like many other things in life is certainly not black and white. Jackson may get injured again next year. Spiller may also get injured if asked to carry the load. The good thing about this situation is that no matter if his contract is reconstructed or not, regardless if he is given an extension or not... Fred Jackson is still under contract. But i'm not willing to sit around and find myself in the same situation i'm in this offseason with Stevie. So i'll stick with what i know. What i know is that while Fred is past 30 he has not taken the punishment other 30yr old rbs have taken; I know that Fred played his heart out last season at a break neck pace even though it wasnt the last year of his contract; and i know that he is the most diverse and athletically gifted player on this offense. I also know that since i didnt sign Chandler, Fitz will be looking for as much outlets as he can find and this means i need a rb that the ball can be checked down to. Can you name many other players in the Nfl as elusive as Fred in the open field?

Decision: Extend his contract and give him a fat signing bonus to compensate his low base salary next year. Something tells me that Fred wont be looking for Stevie Johnson money even though he probably deserves it more and since the team holds leverage right now.. we might as well use it.

 

2) Andy Levitre- Will make less than a million next year. Medium to Long-term extension preferred.

 

 

 

 

As you have probably noticed ive already exceeded the yearly salary cap. Luckily there are a couple of players that will save the team a few dollars in the salary cap; Now alot of these moves will require a sense of just who i can get in free agency. This is were realism may have to take a back seat to optimism. There is also a question as to how much of certain players contracts are guaranteed and thus exactly how much would be saved by releasing them. Once again i will err on the side of caution as to not make this the equivalent of a kid in a candy store.

 

1)Dwan Edwards and Spencer Johnson- By cutting these DE/DT i will save $4mil and $3.5 mil respectively. It is important to note at this time i am intending on going after a DL in free agency or else i could not cut two of our best defensive linemen. I like both these guys.. especially edwards but $7.5 million is alot of money and im tired of watching good players ALMOST get to the QB. I need a great player who gets there often.

 

2)Shawne Merriman- A beast? Absolutely. Well liked and respected but an absolute liability. http://nyjetscap.com/Bills/bills2012.php states we would save over $5 million by cutting him. However http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3171/shawne-merriman claims that $3mil of his 2012 base salary is guaranteed. I would cut him and keep Edwards if possible but for the sake of arguement i will assume it is not reasonable to cut him and therefore he stays on the roster (or IR if history is any indication)

 

3)Drayton Florence- Not as bad as people think.. not as good as his contract would suggest. Cornerbacks are notorious for getting big contracts so a 3yr/15mil contract isnt the worst ive seen. But $5million is alot to pay for a guy of this calibre, especially since we have Aaron Williams with a year under his belt. By cutting Florence we are saving over $3.5 million

 

4)Chris Kelsay and Terrence McGee- Both these players are walking the line. There are arguements to be made about both cutting them and keeping them. McGee is great when healthy but rarely healthy. Kelsay is all heart but not the most talented. By cutting McGee i would save about $2million which would be great if i didnt still have to pay another $4 million in dead money. If i cut McGee i keep Florence but ive decided to keep McGee and use a draft pick to add depth at the position. By cutting Kelsay i would save $3.5 million but still owe over $2mil. Taking into account that the team may run a 43 next season and that Kelsay is one of the lockeroom leaders i have decided to keep him for now.

 

5)Brad Smith- Making just under $4million and a saving of slightly over $2mil if cut. He can be useful although up to this point he has not made an impact. Keep. For now.

 

 

And there you have it. I am now about $10 million under the cap give or take and can use some of that in Free Agency. Alot would depend on the Draft and who is there at number 10. I would definitely take a defensive pass rusher. There are certainly a couple out there worth looking at but no matter what... the important thing is that he is an impact player.

Assuming we draft an OLB in the draft i would be able to focus my attention in free agency on a defensive end.

 

My choice would be Robert Mathis. He would fall under our price range and while he is undersized.. the man is a beast and knows how to terrorize quarterbacks. Many say he has only put up amazing starts because he plays with Freeney but fail to mention that his stats are BETTER than Freeney's in almost every category and in most years throughout his career. Not that he is better than Freeney - but credit is due. He is not a perfect fit but a Dline with Chris Kelsay -Kyle Williams -Marcell Dareus -Robert Mathis would be hard to stop. Most of all, Indy is unlikely to resign him which cant be said for most of the other coveted defensive ends on the market.

 

Now....

 

Before everyone starts chanting Mario Williams let me just point out that i dont have enough money to make that happen. (Neither will the Bills). And no...i wasnt able to find a way to go after an elite WR in free agency either. At best i might be able to find cap for a solid number two. I know, i know, im a cheap GM. I did the best i could boys! Oh really? Well to hell with this...i quit!

 

Note: This will not be proof read or spellchecked. Goodnight, errr...or morning.

Edit: okay, i couldnt help it. I had to fix a couple of words.

Edited January 29, 2012 by Danny

[mob16151]

I wouldn't be adverse to cutting thigpen (2 million in savings)

[Bruce]

Not a bad overall post for being tired and drunk. Or drunk and tired.

 

I would not play contract games with Bell, nor has he shown anything warranting a big investment up until now. Hairston will improve and if Bell thinks he can get more money and a better situation that what he has in Buffalo, then so be it. Nix has said that we're also going to be drafting a LT, this year, and I believe that it will be in the first 3 rounds (just a hunch).

 

Chandler, I agree completely with Nix's assessment. He is in an ideal situation for his career right now in Buffalo. If he thinks that the grass is greener somewhere else, and if he leaves, he'll be waived and/ or out of football within 2 seasons.

 

Same with Parrish. But he's getting older and is showing to be too injury prone.

 

Kelsay we need to keep (did I just say that?). McGee may be done. I agree that Florence screws up with penalties and bad plays about as often as he wins. He can be a solid DB when he's on, but when he's off....he's OFF.

 

Steve Johnson should be resigned, if possible- but not for premiere money. Fred Jackson should get priority. He's arguably our grittiest player (alongside Kyle Williams, Eric Wood, and Nick Barnett), and giving him a contract worthy of his abilities would be a huge gesture by the Bills. I'd probably lose Dwan Edwards and Spencer Johnson. Not sure what to do with Merriman.

 

But I don't feel that we are that much off anymore. If we can get another solid draft like the 2011 one, and gain 5-6 players out of it, and sign 1-2 impact free agents, I think the Bills will be on the verge if not competing in the wild card round of the playoffs next year.

[CBD]

1)Stevie Johnson- Is without a doubt the top priority but comes with concerns of questionable behaviour on the field and drop issues. Stevie, however, has demonstrated toughness on the field and despite his antics tends to handle himself well with fans and media. Many believe he is not an elite#1 wideout but definitely wants to be paid like one.

Decision: Offer a 5yr/42mil. contract with moderate signing bonus

Other options: Franchise tag at approx. $9.5million next season to give us more time to resign him to a long term contract and evalutate his progression.

Reason: The contract being offered to Stevie may seem like alot to some and is without a doubt more than i'd like to pay but keep in mind this is a 5yr contract and in 5yrs the wr yearly salaries will have increased significantly. The fact that Stevie is being offered slightly less than im sure he wants may be offset by the fact that the franchise is putting faith in him longterm after only two productive years. Also keep in mind that there are times when this team must offer more than others in order to keep talented players in a small market atmosphere. The Bottom Line: i would definitely try to get him for less but wouldn't offer him much more than that unless incentives come into play.

It might not be as much as he's asking for, remember the quote from Joe Buscaglia.

A source close to the situation told WGR's Joe Buscaglia that Stevie Johnson's asking price placed in to the Buffalo Bills during negotiations was an annual salary of $7.5 million.

It's pretty vague but the $7.5M could be what he's looking for annually, prior to signing bonuses etc. He could be asking for something like 5 years $50M or so when you add a signing bonus of $12M. Edited January 29, 2012 by Carey Bender

[Astrobot]

I agree with most of your moves. Let's add Thigpen to the cuts.

 

 

Now you need a WR (likely your P1), backup CB (P3), a backup QB (P3), OLB (P2 M3--multiple, as early as RD3 for the 2nd LB), TE (P2), OT (P3) and probably a groomable high potential DE that's bigger than Mathis (P3).

 

Simulating that:

1 10 Whitney Mercilus OLB34 Illinois

2 42 Juron Criner WRP Arizona

3 74 Kellen Moore QB Boise State

4 105 Kheeston Randall DE34

4 124 Brandon Lindsey OLB34 Pittsburgh

5 138 Donnie Fletcher CB Boston College

5 (est.)160 DeVier Posey WRF Ohio State

6 169 Jeff Allen OT Illinois

7 200 Ishmaa'ily Kitchen DT34 Kent State

 

We could do lots worse with all these moves!

[Danny]

I wouldn't be adverse to cutting thigpen (2 million in savings)

 

Me neither. But then we would need a backup. Probably cost us a couple million and then we are back where we started.

 

Not a bad overall post for being tired and drunk. Or drunk and tired.

 

I would not play contract games with Bell, nor has he shown anything warranting a big investment up until now. Hairston will improve and if Bell thinks he can get more money and a better situation that what he has in Buffalo, then so be it. Nix has said that we're also going to be drafting a LT, this year, and I believe that it will be in the first 3 rounds (just a hunch).

 

Chandler, I agree completely with Nix's assessment. He is in an ideal situation for his career right now in Buffalo. If he thinks that the grass is greener somewhere else, and if he leaves, he'll be waived and/ or out of football within 2 seasons.

 

Same with Parrish. But he's getting older and is showing to be too injury prone.

 

Kelsay we need to keep (did I just say that?). McGee may be done. I agree that Florence screws up with penalties and bad plays about as often as he wins. He can be a solid DB when he's on, but when he's off....he's OFF.

 

Steve Johnson should be resigned, if possible- but not for premiere money. Fred Jackson should get priority. He's arguably our grittiest player (alongside Kyle Williams, Eric Wood, and Nick Barnett), and giving him a contract worthy of his abilities would be a huge gesture by the Bills. I'd probably lose Dwan Edwards and Spencer Johnson. Not sure what to do with Merriman.

 

But I don't feel that we are that much off anymore. If we can get another solid draft like the 2011 one, and gain 5-6 players out of it, and sign 1-2 impact free agents, I think the Bills will be on the verge if not competing in the wild card round of the playoffs next year.

 

Yeah i started drunk and a little tired and finished just really tired

I agree with all your points. I wouldnt mind cutting McGee and keeping florence.. financially i just thought it would make more sense cutting florence.

I didnt mention it but, i wouldnt resign Parrish either unless he came super cheap.

[mob16151]

Me neither. But then we would need a backup. Probably cost us a couple million and then we are back where we started.

 

I'd be more inclined to take a guy in rd's 3 or 4 of the draft, and then wing it with that player.

[Danny]

I'd be more inclined to take a guy in rd's 3 or 4 of the draft, and then wing it with that player.

 

Thats a very good point. (Lets ignore the fact i didnt think of that.) Ok Thigpen's gone.

[jcbillsfan]

wonder if bell could be had for 1 year 5 million guarenteed . if he puts up a big year he is looking at 50 million on the open market.

 

no thanks to mathis rather have avril if he hits the open market

[Astrobot]

wonder if bell could be had for 1 year 5 million guarenteed . if he puts up a big year he is looking at 50 million on the open market.

 

no thanks to mathis rather have avril if he hits the open market

Wondering also if we sign Calais Campbell at DE, rather than missing out on the guy he's compared to (Coples).

[mob16151]

Wondering also if we sign Calais Campbell at DE, rather than missing out on the guy he's compared to (Coples).

 

I love Campbell, but I have a hard time seeing the Cards letting him hit free agency. I imagine they'd tag him first.

[Astrobot]

I love Campbell, but I have a hard time seeing the Cards letting him hit free agency. I imagine they'd tag him first.

Agree. Without a 2nd rounder this year (Kolb trade), the Cards need 1-2 Big uglies for their O-line, and can't be adding a need on Defense.

[Jason423]

I run the nyjetscap.com site and just wanted to throw in my two cents about some things. I was told that the Merriman guarantee is for injury only and not skill, meaning if you cut him you should not be on the hook for any additional money.

 

Id be surprised if you guys do not re-sign Johnson. Hes a really good talent and clearly worth something in that 8-8.5 million a year range. His only issue is the diva stuff during a game, which is not that much different a problem than the Jets have with Holmes and most teams have with good WRs. I do think the Bills ownership might hesitate to give him a big money deal because they whiffed so badly on Lee Evans.

 

You should just stick with Fred Jackson and move on when his deal expires. Players that age dont last, regardless of how much they have been used, and extending him can put you in a bad cap position in the future. You can do year to year deals after this season is he can still go. Spiller is terrible, but you can find a RB cheap in the draft next year or the year after.

 

The Bills have a great cap cushion for next year. They have a $1.5 million exemption they can use (though they were one of just a few to not use the $3 million one in 2011) plus unused cap space from 2011 to carry over (somewhere around $20 million)if they want. They might not do either because it looks bad for a team that has a reputation for not spending money to see it reported that the team has $40 million in cap room to use, but at least for the near future the Bills are not going to need to worry about cutting guys because of the cap ramifications. Its strictly going to be about cutting guys that are making too much money for their production.

[CSBill]

Concerning Bell and Johnson - my perspective is we NEED to resign both of them, whatever the cost.

 

There is talk of the BIlls going for LT with their first pick; so here we go again, letting a proven one walk (with questions, I know), and then being put in the position of having to use a top draft pick to replace him--if we can.

 

Winning teams keep their developing players, which frees them to add players at other positions of need. For some reason, the BIlls have a systemic internal problem with this idea, and let good-enough people go, to open up gaps where there does't need to be.

 

I love Campbell, but I have a hard time seeing the Cards letting him hit free agency. I imagine they'd tag him first.

 

Looks like that is what will happen (just like the BIlls should do with Johnson if they can't work out a deal)

 

Calais Campbell would be open to tag - Calais Campbell (DL) Arizona Cardinals

Rotoworld — Free agent DE Calais Campbell said Monday that he would be open to receiving the franchise tag from the Cardinals.

January 23, 2012