So, why no love for Fitz? How was 6-10 his fault?

[PromoTheRobot]

Fitz is our starter for at least 2 more years. Nix will draft a QB in the next year or two. Got other holes to fix first.

 

PTR

Edited January 3, 2012 by PromoTheRobot

[Orton's Arm]

OK...Fitzty started out hot the first four games with a QB rating over 100 which, by season's end had plumeted to under 80. Why? Does he just flat out suck? Maybe? Maybe not! I won't try and BS anyone that Fitzy is franchise QB. He aint. But, his defense ain't worth a piece of pig turd. Not only that, from opening day to the end of the season, the offense lost 6 of 11 starters plus Roscoe Parish. What QB survives that? Especially in his first full season as a starter? So, he puts the team on his shoulders, and in doing so tries to do too much. Throws 23 picks... not all of which were his fault. And the 23 sacks allowed. That was more a credit to Fitzy getting rid of the ball quickly than it was the offensive line. Hell with a patchwork Oline, he was still making them look better than they really were.

 

So, why is anyone calling for his head? If the Bills offense were playing with a full deck most of the season, would you still be calling for his head? I doubt it, because the Bills would have been a wild card team despite the defense.

 

The offense did not let this team down, nor did Fitzy. The defense was the problem, and has been the problem for several years. Even with McGee, Kyle Williams, and Merriman in the lineup, the Bills never ranked higher than 28th.

 

So, why do we have fans calling for the Bills to draft a QB with the 10th pick? How many brain cells does one have to lose to come up with a gem like that. Do they think RGIII is the second coming of Cam Newton? Well, whooptie doo if he is. Last I checked Cam Newton and the Panthers were 6-10. What, no miracles from Cam? How come the 7th ranked QB with a defense ranked only two notches below the Bills didn't get his team to the playoffs? So, Cam had better numbers than Fitz. Did he lose 7 key players on his offense in doing so? No. Did he win more games than Fitz? No. Then, with those fanslogic, the Panthers should draft a QB with their first pick.

 

Yep... Bring Rogers, Roethlisberger, Brees, or whomever you want to be the Bills QB. This team still aint going to the playoffs with the 26th ranked defense and an offense as ravaged by injuries as the Bills were this season. But, let's still blame 6-10 on Fitzy. Brilliant, just brilliant.

We have some common ground. First, I agree that football is a team sport, and that it doesn't make sense to lay the blame for the 6-10 season at Fitz's feet when the defense as a whole provided significantly worse play than did Fitz. I also agree that some of his INTs weren't his fault. On the other hand, there were plenty of times when a defender should have picked off one of his passes, only to drop it instead. Or when a Bills' WR made a good play to prevent what otherwise would have been an INT.

 

I also agree with your bolded statement that Fitz is not a franchise quarterback. For me to consider a quarterback franchise, he needs to have a career yards per pass attempt of at least 7.2 - 7.4. (If a guy comes in at 7.2 or 7.3, you look at other factors--such as the quality of his supporting cast--to determine whether he's franchise.) Fitz's career average is 6.3 yards per attempt, or 0.2 yards per attempt lower than Trent Edwards' career average. Over the last two seasons, Fitz averaged 6.8 and 6.7 yards per attempt. That's a step above what we're used to seeing from Trent Edwards, but two steps below what a franchise quarterback would have provided. (As an aside, some franchise quarterbacks had averages significantly higher than 7.4. Kurt Warner, for example, averaged 7.9 yards per attempt during his career.)

 

Of the ten most recent Super Bowl winners, nine had franchise quarterbacks. The tenth was the Bucs of 2002: a team with a very good defense, plus a QB who had a Pro Bowl season the year the Bucs won the big one. One can say with near certainty that the Bills will not win a Super Bowl with Fitz under center.

 

Some believe that if you don't have a franchise quarterback, but also have deep flaws at other positions, you should fix those other deep flaws first, and wait until later to find your franchise quarterback. The problem with that line of thinking is that franchise quarterbacks enter the league at the rate of less than one a year. This means that an average team will have to wait 42 years before acquiring a franchise quarterback. Deliberately passing up the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback, because other pieces are not yet in place, is nearly certain to set the rebuilding effort back by years or (more likely) decades.

 

Three teams obtained franchise QBs from the class of '83, including the Dolphins, Broncos, and Bills. The Dolphins have yet to replace Dan Marino. The Broncos are still searching for John Elway's replacement. The Bills have been unable to fill the void left by Kelly. The Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars came into existence in 1995. Thus far neither team has yet obtained a franchise quarterback; though that may change for the Panthers with Cam Newton. The New York Jets came into existence in 1959, and have had one franchise quarterback in their history (Joe Namath). Just as Jim Kelly is the only franchise QB in the Bills' history.

 

Suppose a team with a large number of needs decides to fill its non-QB needs first. Filling those other needs will presumably improve its record. By the time it gets around to addressing the need for a franchise quarterback, its draft position will be low enough to preclude it from the most highly touted QBs available.

 

Take a team like the Colts. They went 1-15 in 1997, which allowed them the first overall pick in the 1998 draft. That 1-15 record suggests that that team's needs went well beyond just quarterback. But they took a quarterback anyway, and built a team around him. Drafting Peyton Manning was by far Bill Polian's most successful move as the Colts' GM. I'd argue that Manning was more useful to the Colts than any three other Polian player acquisitions combined. The effect Manning had on the franchise was of a different order than (for example) the effect Edgerrin James had, or the effect Polian's other good non-Manning acquisitions had.

 

To make a long story short, if you don't have a franchise quarterback, and if you have the chance to draft one, you take it. There can be no reasonable dispute on this point.

[Dr. Trooth]

To make a long story short, if you don't have a franchise quarterback, and if you have the chance to draft one, you take it. There can be no reasonable dispute on this point.

 

No doubt. You need a franchise guy. However, 5 of the last 10 Superbowl winners had "FRANCHISE" QBs that were not 1st round picks. 7 of the last 10 Super Bowl losers did not have franchise QBs that were 1st rounders. Going back further, Favre and Warner were not first rounders.

 

Sure, if you don't have a franchise QB and one is sitting there when you're on the clock, you take him. But, how do you know for sure you're drafting a franchise QB, and is the team committed to him? For every Peyton Manning there are several busts... Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, JP Losman, Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossmans. Every team making those selections believed they had their franchise guy.

 

Don't know about you, but I have zero confidence that the Bills organization would recognize a franchise QB. They'd either pass on the right guy or draft the wrong guy.

 

For this draft, after Luck, who is a franchise QB? Who is a sure fire 10-13 year guy that will consistently rank in the top 7 and deliver a SB?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

That is my biggest problem with Fitz is he can't throw over 15 yards accurately. Every other team you watch slinging balls down the field (how about back up QBs, Flynn, and the Pats guy). The short quick game which Fitz is good at was figured out and with Gailey's hatred to run the ball Fitz's arm has really been exposed.

 

It isn't all on Fitz, as offensive injuries really hurt. I really like the guy though with his work ethic and leadership, but in the end he just lacks the physical tools. A lot of people have been saying that about him for awhile and after watching the end of the season unfold I'm starting to jump on that wagon.

 

OK, I'll respond on this thread - am also thinking about a post by Dick Drawn.

 

I think it's clear that Fitz does not have the arm strength of some of the top QB. He can't hurl long bombs from any position whatsoever, when draped with linebackers, etc etc etc. He can do it when the stars align and the conditions are just right. And let me also say right up front, this is not a Fitz apologia. His play has been awful at times, and his OL, coach, and WR are not throwing INTs. He is. I'm not trying to make him out as better than he's been this year, I'm just trying to get at the facts.

 

I'm truly puzzled about the "Fitz just lacks physical tools" bit, and here's why. If you go to Washington Post Stats and look up "Big Play Passes" (>29 yds), which I believe are supposed to be the pass and not pass + YAC, Fitz is tied for #11, tied with Joe Flacco and just after Matt Ryan and Andy Dalton. He has 29 on the year (the elite 5-6 QB have ~ 40. Cam Newton has 34. Hmmmm. How'd that happen for a QB who can't throw over 15 yds.

 

OK, let's try another look. Fitz is #11 in NFL passing yards, just after Roeth and Newton and just ahead of Flacco and Freeman. So if he's so noodle-armed, he must get lots of YAC, right? YAC stats Hmmm, no, he's #8 there, 1 yd behind Newton, flanked by Manning, Romo, and Roeth. (Brady and Brees head the list, BTW. Close to half their passing yardage is YAC).

 

So he's getting a reasonable number of long pass plays (assuming I'm correct that is passing) relative to his peers, he's in the top third for passing yards, and he's not getting a disproportionate amount of YAC. I know some people hate statistics, but when you put all that together - how can he be really be that much more noodle-armed than his peers on "every other team"? He's right up there in the top third on the # of long pass plays, the passing yardage-YAC, and the completion percentage (#9, just ahead of five QBs of teams in the playoffs - Hasselbeck, Smith, Ryan, and Manning, and Schaub, and also higher than Cam Newton)

 

Anyone else see the puzzlement here? Fitz is not fit to be an NFL QB, we can't win with him, he's horribly inaccurate, and he has a higher completion percentage than 5 QBs of teams in the playoffs, higher than the QB of 23 other NFL teams?

 

Now let's get to the heart of the puzzle. Those are his stats AFTER throwing the league's highest # of INTs, and after outright suck-suck-suck-sucking at times.

 

Dick Drawn (hope this isn't picking on you, bro, I'll try to cross-ref this post in a response to yours if I fail, know that I tried) suggests that Fitz just has horrible physical mechanics which make it impossible to be consistently accurate (I hope that isn't mis-stating?). Dick, love your posts, respect you bunches, can't entirely buy it and here's why. Fitz has had three games this year where his completion percentage is >70% - in two it was almost 78%! The whole game, racking up 262 passing yards (that was game 5, 6, and 7). He's had 4 other games at or above 66% completion, which is very very good.

 

So WTF, gentlemen? Clearly, Fitz is capable of throwing accurately and consistently, the entire game, for several games in a row. Whatever mechanics he's using in those games, they work. I also want to make clear I entirely believe that Dick sees what he's seeing - if he says he sits on the 50 yard line and says Fitz mechanics suck, I'm sure he's watched some sucky mechanics out of Fitz. The stats say that too - Fitz has had games with totally putrid completion percentage, 38%, 48%, barf.

 

It begs the question tho, doesn't it - why? Why do his mechanics suck and his accuracy suffer in some games but not others? It's not that he simply isn't capable or doesn't "have it". He has it some times, and not others. What's going on? What's the difference?

 

If Fitz and his coaches can really drill down into a season worth of film and figure it out, then solve it, maybe we'll have something yet.

 

IMO, what has really killed the Bills in Fitz' play is not the inaccuracy per se or the "noodle arm". Both of those don't seem to be quite as bad as people perceive them to be. It's the interceptions, man. Whatever the thought process is that results in those picks, Fitzy, quit it. Just stop, man. Because most of them aren't misfires, they're throwing into double or triple coverage, or throwing where the ball can be tipped and picked. Get rid of those, and we're good. Other QB have improved here, you do it too. IMO a lot of it is trying to carry the team, trying to force stuff to happen when the Bills are behind, but that's just my opinion.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Hopeful

[Orton's Arm]

No doubt. You need a franchise guy. However, 5 of the last 10 Superbowl winners had "FRANCHISE" QBs that were not 1st round picks. 7 of the last 10 Super Bowl losers did not have franchise QBs that were 1st rounders. Going back further, Favre and Warner were not first rounders.

 

Sure, if you don't have a franchise QB and one is sitting there when you're on the clock, you take him. But, how do you know for sure you're drafting a franchise QB, and is the team committed to him? For every Peyton Manning there are several busts... Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, JP Losman, Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Tim Couch, Cade McNown, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossmans. Every team making those selections believed they had their franchise guy.

 

Don't know about you, but I have zero confidence that the Bills organization would recognize a franchise QB. They'd either pass on the right guy or draft the wrong guy.

 

For this draft, after Luck, who is a franchise QB? Who is a sure fire 10-13 year guy that will consistently rank in the top 7 and deliver a SB?

You are correct to say that five of the last ten Super Bowl winners had franchise QBs found outside the first round. Three of those five wins were achieved by Tom Brady. The other two were attained by Drew Brees, chosen 32nd overall. This was the first pick of the second round, because the Texans had not yet come into being.

 

Tom Brady was a sixth round pick of the 2000 draft. Since 2001, not one franchise QB has been added to the NFL in rounds 4 - 7, or as an undrafted free agent. Any given NFL team should expect to be the beneficiary of a Tom Brady story about once every 210 years.

 

All the franchise quarterbacks active in the league today were taken in the top 32 picks, with the exception of Matt Schaub (third round) and Tom Brady (sixth round). Your odds of finding a franchise QB in the first round are much higher than they are outside of it.

 

I agree there are pitfalls associated with drafting a quarterback in the first round. But there are pitfalls associated with using a first round pick at any position. This past decade, the Bills have achieved first round busts at OT (Mike Williams), RB (McGahee), QB (Losman), SS (Whitner), DT (McCargo), RB (Lynch), CB (McKelvin), and LB (Maybin). If you know you're probably going to strike out no matter what position you target, why not swing for the fences (by taking a QB) rather than bunting (by taking a RB or SS)?

 

I hope the current front office is more competent than the above list would imply. But the logic is still the same: if a draft pick is associated with high risk, why not work to increase the possible reward? That said, there are things which can be done to reduce the risk element. For example, "polished" quarterbacks chosen because of their ability as pocket passers are more likely to succeed than "raw" QBs taken because of their athletic potential. Losman was a member of the latter category, which is another way of saying he was a near-certain bust from the very moment he was drafted. Another way to reduce risk is to take college quarterbacks who have performed at a high level for at least 2 - 3 years. One good season is not enough. A team using this thought process would have steered clear of many of the bust QBs you mentioned, without also steering clear of a single franchise QB taken in the first round during the last ten years.

 

As for specific college quarterbacks the Bills should target: I have not followed college football closely enough to meaningfully answer that question. The Bills should trade the house for a franchise QB if the right guy is there, but should eschew drafting a QB if the right guy isn't there.

[raleighbillsfan78]

Its ALWAYS about the QB!

Pats & GB have two of the worst pass defenses in the HISTORY of the NFL this year

Two #1 seeds w/ two future HOF QB's

[Hapless Bills Fan]

To make a long story short, if you don't have a franchise quarterback, and if you have the chance to draft one, you take it. There can be no reasonable dispute on this point.

 

I have two questions.

 

The first is: what do you mean by "chance to draft one"? Does it mean if there's a guy there when your team drafts, who you think has the potential to be a franchise QB, you draft him when your turn comes even if you already have a decent starting QB on the roster (Rodgers/Favre for example)? If so, I agree - if he's the BPA and a once-in-several-years caliber player, you take him. If you don't think he's worth that high of a pick, you don't take him at the expense of drafting a better player who can help the team at another position.

 

Does it mean if there's a QB available that you like and think might be a franchise guy, who is projected at #1 or #2, you do whatever it takes to move up and draft him?

Trade every draft pick you have, and your first round picks for several years if that's what it takes?

 

This might be where we disagree. I don't believe it makes sense to mortgage every position on a team to one draft prospect, however promising. One must point out that of the teams with widely acknowledged elite QB in this year's playoffs, one drafted their franchise QB in the 6th round, one signed their franchise guy as a FA, one drafted their franchise guy at #24 in the 1st) The playoff QB drafted at #1 overall has been widely regarded as a disappointment, even a bust, for the last 5 years. I also get puzzled by the definition of franchise QB - is Smith a franchise QB? Is Flacco? Is Dalton? He's looking pretty good, and was taken in the 2nd. Roeth was drafted 11th. The point is, the rare, truly great ones come in different ways and at different points in the draft so why sell your team's draft rights for a "mess of pottage", even if it's tasty-looking pottage?

 

The second question is: if there can be no reasonable dispute on a point, doesn't that make your argument tautological**? (Your assertion, by definition, can not be disproved, because any argument or dispute is by definition, unreasonable.) I respect your right to your opinion, and I'm highly suspicious of assertions that can not entertain reasonable counterexample or argument, or that can not be disproved.

 

**Tautology means a series of self-reinforcing statements that cannot be disproved because the statements depend on the assumption that they are already correct.

[PromoTheRobot]

NFL QB stats

 

I know a lot of folks think Fitz is sub-par, but his stats say otherwise:

 

#9 in comp pct. (62%)

#10 in TDs (24)

#11 in yards (3,832)

 

Yes, yes... he's #1 in INTs. But many of those came in the 7 game losing streak trying to come from way behind. In the first 7 games, Fitz has the fewest INT's (7).

 

He's not the ideal QB. He has trouble with certain kinds of throws. And I wouldn't be surprised if Nix drafts a QB in the next draft or two. But Fitz is hardly the clusterf**k the haters make him out to be. He'll do while we get the D fixed.

 

PTR

Edited January 3, 2012 by PromoTheRobot

[mjt328]

It's not all his fault.

 

 

But there is no doubt that Fitz is big contributor to our 10-22 record over the last two seasons. And considering how important the quarterback position is in the NFL, he might be the biggest problem.

 

 

Everybody makes a bad throw once in awhile. But you will never see the top QBs in this league consistently miss open receivers like Fitzpatrick. You will never find a top QB go weeks at a time without hitting even one deep throw. If you don't believe me, just watch a game involving Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Manning, Stafford, Rivers, etc.

 

 

Fitzpatrick does make some beautiful throws occasionally. I like his fire and I like his competitiveness. But it's those 5-6 overthrows and misfires (I'm being generous here) each week that will keep him from being a consistent winner in the NFL.

[PromoTheRobot]

It's not all his fault.

 

 

But there is no doubt that Fitz is big contributor to our 10-22 record over the last two seasons. And considering how important the quarterback position is in the NFL, he might be the biggest problem.

 

 

Everybody makes a bad throw once in awhile. But you will never see the top QBs in this league consistently miss open receivers like Fitzpatrick. You will never find a top QB go weeks at a time without hitting even one deep throw. If you don't believe me, just watch a game involving Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Manning, Stafford, Rivers, etc.

 

 

Fitzpatrick does make some beautiful throws occasionally. I like his fire and I like his competitiveness. But it's those 5-6 overthrows and misfires (I'm being generous here) each week that will keep him from being a consistent winner in the NFL.

Really? Do you think our D had anything to do with losing?

 

PTR

[John from Riverside]

People may not agree with this but.....

 

I have all the bills games on TIVO....went back and looked at some things....

 

Fitz is one of those guys that more often then not needs some time in a game to find a rythum......

 

- When our defense was doing its part....the team as a whole looks very good.....offense and special teams also seems to click when the defense gets stops

 

- When we fall behind early.....a combonation of Fitz not playing well AND playcalling seems to really hurt us......no matter how well our running game is doing we will inexplicabally start lining up in spread formations taking the RB's out of THEIR rythum of a game.......

 

I really need to see this team with a decent defense before I can evaluate other parts of the team.....most wont agree that QB play should be affected by defensive play but on this team I think it does.

 

Fitz is a good qb....he is not a great one....he is a solid game manager....he is not a difference maker......he needs help. Give him that help and lets see what happens.

 

Getting Edwards out of there was a good start

[ganesh]

I agree with this 100%

 

I would even argue that if we had two of our "lost" receivers healthy for the entire year (e.g., Jones, Easley, and/or Parrish), this would have been a playoff team.

 

I disagree. The defense on this team was way too inconsistent for the offense to have overcome...The season went down the toilet, when Williams, Wood and Freddie went on IR and Chan just could not trust CJ.

 

NFL QB stats

 

I know a lot of folks think Fitz is sub-par, but his stats say otherwise:

 

#9 in comp pct. (62%)

#10 in TDs (24)

#11 in yards (3,832)

 

Yes, yes... he's #1 in INTs. But many of those came in the 7 game losing streak trying to come from way behind. In the first 7 games, Fitz has the fewest INT's (7).

 

He's not the ideal QB. He has trouble with certain kinds of throws. And I wouldn't be surprised if Nix drafts a QB in the next draft or two. But Fitz is hardly the clusterf**k the haters make him out to be. He'll do while we get the D fixed.

 

PTR

 

And he is also the 1st QB since Kelly to post back-to-back 3000 yard seasons.....Fitz is kind of guy that needs to be surrounded with talent and he can win. He is not a vocal leader and cannot win games by his own will (Like a Ben). In many ways, he is more like a Brady who needed all that talent on the OL and WR corps to win consistently.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I disagree. The defense on this team was way too inconsistent for the offense to have overcome...The season went down the toilet, when Williams, Wood and Freddie went on IR and Chan just could not trust CJ.

 

Agree that Fitz is an average QB who can win, given the right pieces around him and the right gamecalling.

 

What scares me is that I'm not sure it's just Chan not trusting CJ.

 

Even when Wood was in the game and Fred was healthy, Chan seemed to inexplicably get away from the run and into these 5 WR sets and a pass-heavy game, the moment the other team's offense got slightly ahead of us. The idea may be to pass to set up the run, make some deep pass plays and get the defense to back off. It's conventional, it's traditional, and for us it doesn't work. Fitzy simply doesn't have the kind of arm that can scare a pressuring D into backing off and set up the run that way, especially when he's under pressure and trying to get the ball out even faster. Chan has to come up with a different strategy, or expect more of the same.

[PromoTheRobot]

Agree that Fitz is an average QB who can win, given the right pieces around him and the right gamecalling.

 

What scares me is that I'm not sure it's just Chan not trusting CJ.

 

Even when Wood was in the game and Fred was healthy, Chan seemed to inexplicably get away from the run and into these 5 WR sets and a pass-heavy game, the moment the other team's offense got slightly ahead of us. The idea may be to pass to set up the run, make some deep pass plays and get the defense to back off. It's conventional, it's traditional, and for us it doesn't work. Fitzy simply doesn't have the kind of arm that can scare a pressuring D into backing off and set up the run that way, especially when he's under pressure and trying to get the ball out even faster. Chan has to come up with a different strategy, or expect more of the same.

 

It's not that Chan doesn't trust CJ, it's that Chan's offense is built around the pass. And he wants to RBs to change the pace, so neither will get many touches. Think back. Fred didn't get many more carries than CJ.

 

PTR

[CodeMonkey]

It's not that Chan doesn't trust CJ, it's that Chan's offense is built around the pass. And he wants to RBs to change the pace, so neither will get many touches. Think back. Fred didn't get many more carries than CJ.

 

PTR

I agree with you completely. Which is why an accurate QB is higher on my list of needs that it seems to be on yours.

I just wish I could snap my fingers and make it so, but unfortunately good QBs don't grow on trees.

Edited January 3, 2012 by CodeMonkey

[PromoTheRobot]

I agree with you completely. Which is why an accurate QB is higher on my list of needs that it seems to be on yours.

I just wish I could snap my fingers and make it so, but unfortunately good QBs don't grow on trees.

There are only 5-6 QBs like you are describing in the entire NFL now. So many teams besides the Bills have that hole. Fitz is middle-of-the-pack. He's the best we've had in a while but we could do better. I'm pretty confident we will draft a QB soon to groom.

 

PTR

[mountainwampus]

All of Fitzy's problems are correctable. His arm strength has improved this season. 90% of his throws to the right and middle of the field are on target. 50% of his throws left are awful. Chan's favorite play on 3rd and short happens to be a deep left pass, Fitzy's biggest weakness. Usually throws to the left are behind or underthrown. A big part of this are his mechanics. He waits too long to turn his shoulders left. Good coaches should be able to fix this. A good coach would call plays that utilize his strengths, like 5 yard slant routes on 3rd & short. Also, is Fitzy the toughest QB in the NFL? I think so. Look at how he runs for first downs, always diving head first for extra yardage. He's come a long way since last year. Watch him continue to progress next season.

 

Thing he does better than any QB in the NFL: Avoiding sacks

[bananathumb]

Why no love for a QB who will never win the big games because he can't make the big plays when we need them.

 

Think back a little: we were rolling into Cinci, but Fitzpatrick couldn't make the plays. We came home to Jets and same thing;

he had his chances, but is just too inaccurate against good defenses.

 

A $59 million backup who will be here doing the same thing for years.

 

Maybe that's why "no love for Fitz".

 

You think?

[thewildrabbit]

Agree that Fitz is an average QB who can win, given the right pieces around him and the right gamecalling.

 

What scares me is that I'm not sure it's just Chan not trusting CJ.

 

Even when Wood was in the game and Fred was healthy, Chan seemed to inexplicably get away from the run and into these 5 WR sets and a pass-heavy game, the moment the other team's offense got slightly ahead of us. The idea may be to pass to set up the run, make some deep pass plays and get the defense to back off. It's conventional, it's traditional, and for us it doesn't work. Fitzy simply doesn't have the kind of arm that can scare a pressuring D into backing off and set up the run that way, especially when he's under pressure and trying to get the ball out even faster. Chan has to come up with a different strategy, or expect more of the same.

Perfect statement that so many just don't see or understand

 

Its unreal to watch Gailey call so many shotgun pass plays out of the spread offense with an empty backfield when the Bills have a lead, and mostly ignore the run game. But then when the team loses the lead his play calling for passing intensifies, which makes no logical sense. When you are behind in the score the opposing defense tend to play their nickel and dime packages more, so in essence Chan is throwing right into their strength.

 

Look at the NE game, in the first QTR NE was forced to respect the run game with Spiller being able to break long runs. Once the Patriots got the lead and were able to reinforce their 2nd worst pass defense with extra BD's the complexion of the game changed very quickly. Then to compound the issue Scott Chandler goes out with an injury, and Gailey benches Stevie Johnson the entire game. Thus hamstringing the already under more duress QB.

 

Then look at the Buffalo Bills receiving corps, WR Derek Hagan, WR Ruvell Martin, WR Naaman Roosevelt, TE Kevin Brock....WTF are these guys? And the play caller intensifies the passing game as the opposing defense steps up its pass defense packages...

 

This type of play calling makes no logical sense to me, and it never will. From my perspective it has almost nothing to do with Fitz's arm or accuracy. I'd think ANY QB in the league would suffer the same fate as Fitz does under those circumstances. Look at what happened to Tom Brady in the Buffalo Bills first game against them. Buffalo has almost no pass rush but was still able to pressure Brady. Then imagine removing Wes Welker and Gronk from the game on Brady and see what would happen.

[2003Contenders]

Some random thoughts about Fitz...

 

1. His inconsistency is maddening, and I simply cannot put my finger on the cause/solution. Accuracy is certainly an issue. But we have seen many instances where he can thread the needle -- and throw it on a rope between defenders. Clearly the long ball isn't his strength, but he he has often been inaccurate on too many short passes (screens included) as well. His errors tend to be more physical errors than mental ones, as reading defenses IS a strength. On a related note, his biggest strength is with is pre-snap reads and knowing where to go with the ball quickly. That is a big reason why the Bills were among the league leaders in fewest sacks allowed this year. I think part of what happened this year is that the defense was so bad that he often felt COMPELLED to score on every possession, which led to too many negative plays.

 

 

2. He certainly does not have elite arm strength, but it is adequate. As I alluded to above, the deep ball is NOT a strength of his. But I do not think it is a matter of arm strength. As often as he under-threw receivers, he also over-threw them. Since he does not have an elite arm (a la Rogers, Cutler, Stafford or Vick), he cannot get away with poor mechanics. That is, poor footwork is often a culprit of bad passes from Fitz as was best exemplified by those 2 INTs he threw in the Giants game.

 

 

3. He was not helped by play calling or supporting cast. It is not a coincidence that Fitz's fortunes started fading at the time that injuries to the surrounding players on offense revealed just how thin the roster is. I know many here are unhappy with Stevie -- and what he did in the season finale was just plain foolish -- but the Buffalo Bills are NOT going to be a better team if they allow him to leave. I liked what I saw from Hagan Sunday, and I wonder if he could be a player like Brandon Lloyd who suddenly figures it out after several years in the league. The possibility of Easley making it onto the field in 2012 intrigues me, but he has yet to play a down in a real NFL game. Roscoe is probably a goner. As a WR3, David Nelson is fine; but he doesn't belong on the outside. Donald Jones and N. Roosevelt both needed to be upgraded. Since Chan is so stuck on running these multi-WR sets, it is imperative that the Bills have depth at the position. I would like to see the Bills re-sign Stevie AND bring in another WR in the off-season. Chandler was a revelation at TE this year, and the Bills can certainly get by with him. But I do have to wonder how much better the offense would be with an elite guy like Gronkowski there. It wouldn't hurt Chan to take a page out of the Patriots' playbook and run multi-TE sets with Chandler and a another quality pass-catching TE at the helm. Of course, if they take care of the WR position, Nelson can function in that role as a slot WR too. Getting back to the play calling, I am worried that Chan is starting to get Kevin Gilbriditis. Like Chan, Gilbride has been a successful OC here (at least in 2002) and elsewhere. He certainly deserves some credit for what the Giants have done in recent years. However, he sometimes INSISTS on throwing the ball when it just doesn't make good sense -- just like Chan. With SJ benched, Chandler out of the game and the OL fortified (valiantly) with numerous back-ups, you would have thought that Chan would focus more on the running game once the Bills took a 21-point lead.

 

 

4. Not sure there is help on the horizon. There are probably about 10 starting QBs in the league that I would rather have than Fitz right now, and there about an equal number of QBs in the league to whom I believe that he is undoubtedly superior currently. I would say that he ranks somewhere in the 13-18 range at QB -- or, in other words, he is an average starter. Now, there are currently a number of positions that are woefully below average (especially WR2 and LB/DE). Getting an elite QB trumps all else, and I would hope that the front office heads into next season with the same mind-set that they did last year. That is, they can survive with Fitz, but if a franchise QB falls to them, then they HAVE to take him. Alas, those guys do not grow on trees. They are not going to be able to get Luck -- and probably not RG3 either. What I do hope they do differently than last year is that if a high risk/high reward guy like Mallet happens to be there for the taking (as he was as late as the 3rd round last year), then they should pull the trigger. Even if it takes him a year or 2 to develop, the Bills have the luxury of being patient with adequacy at the position with Fitz.

 

At least that is my 2 cents...