Football Freakonomics, the QB driven league, and the Bills

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There has been some discussion of whether Chan is a pass-happy coach recently.

 

I would like to present some data to that regard.

 

There is an episode of Football Freakonomics on whether the NFL is a QB driven league (available on nfl.com). Stats for last year are given as 56% pass attempts, 44% run attempts.

 

Overall for the Bills this year, we are at 59% pass, 41% run. Should Chan get a "pass" on his play calling and the rest of us line up for Crow because that's only about 3% off of the league average?

 

I would say: No. In addition to the shear number of pass and run plays, I think we need to look, overall, at how well each aspect of the game is working.

The Bills have 532 pass attempts (#11 in the league) for 6.7 ypa (#21 in the league). The Bills have 371 run attempts (#26 in the league) for 4.9 ypa (#3 in the league)

 

Let's compare a team with exactly the same number of run attempts, the Green Bay Packers. They have one of the premier QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers have 508 pass attempts (58%, #18 in the league) for 9.2 ypa (#1 in the league). The Packers have 371 run attempts (42%, #26 in the league) for 4 ypa (#21 in the league)

So here we have a team with one of the premier QB in the league, they have the most effective passing game in the league, and we have the same percentage of pass plays that they do.

They have a much less effective running game than we do, and have run exactly the same number of running plays as we have despite the fact that we have the 3rd most efficient running game in the league.

 

Does that make sense?

 

Now let's look at a team with a troubled QB situation where they are headed to the playoffs with their 3rd string QB.

The Texans have 435 pass attempts (46%, #30 in the league) for 7.9 ypa (#7 in the league). The Texans have 516 run attempts (54%, #1 in the league) for 4.4 ypa (#10 in the league).

They have a very effective passing game when they use it - but they use it selectively to adjust to their QB situation. We have a more effective running game than they do, and we use it less.

 

Does this make sense?

 

Mike Lombardi has an article excusing Sanchez for the Jets woes on the NFL.com site: Linky It makes the point:

"The number one thing an organization must do is to find out not what the quarterback can do well, but rather what he can't do. The Jets identified early on that they wanted to manage Sanchez, as they did not want his arm to carry the team. The key to the offense would be its physical nature.(....) The Jets had found a formula for winning with Sanchez, and it was dubbed "Ground and Pound."

 

(It then goes on to diagnose the Jet's reliance on Shonn Greene as an every-down back as a cause of their declining run game, and on Plaxico Burress as a deep threat as a deep-threat failure, and to explain Sanchez limitations (evidently Schott has to tell him who the open man will be on each call and if it's a bad call, he panics - the Jets have to KISS for him - the whole thing is worth reading)

 

My point is, the Bills organization by now should understand what Fitz can do well, and what Fitz can't do (and what the team can do well, and what the team can't do). Fitz can read and make progressions like anyone's business. He can't throw deep with accuracy when he's under pressure. He can throw deep more than people here think, but he has to have time to turn, set, and step into the throw. Our OL can't give him that, especially with all the injuries and without a true "burner" at WR.

 

Yet over and over, week after week, we hear from Chan how we're running the same plays we ran successfully at the beginning of the season and guldurn it they just aren't working now, "we need to execute"

 

The Texans adjusted their play calling to their injury situation, and they're going to the playoffs. We failed to adjust to what teams learned to do to "stop" our O, and we keep trying to get our QB to do something he can't do, rather than planning for our team's strength, and Fitz's strength. We have one of the most effective run games (3rd in YPA), and we try it the least (26 in # of attempts)

 

That's coaching, folks, and it's not good coaching.

[1billsfan]

Chan needs to hire an OC who will be a run first kind of a guy. I think Chan's abilities to call plays and deciding which players to use and when to use them are highly questionable.

 

The Bills three biggest problems were defense, play calling and QB play. The first one was for the whole season and the last two were from the first Jet game on.

 

Draft a Ware-like OLB like Nick Perry with the first pick, hire a qualified OC who know how to use Spiller and Jackson in heavy doses and have Fitzpatrick put a lot of work on his strength and accuracy during the offseason.

Edited December 30, 2011 by 1billsfan

[Coach Tuesday]

Chan needs to hire an OC who will be a run first kind of a guy. I think Chan's abilities to call plays and deciding which players to use and when to use them are highly questionable.

 

The Bills three biggest problems were defense, play calling and QB play. The first one was for the whole season and the last two were from the first Jet game on.

 

Draft a Ware-like OLB like Nick Perry with the first pick, hire a qualified OC who know how to use Spiller and Jackson in heavy doses and have Fitzpatrick put a lot of work on his strength and accuracy during the offseason.

 

Chan isn't about to fire himself as OC - it just won't happen.

[nucci]

He is under contract. If he can't play because the injury he will be IR'd or released.

[metzelaars_lives]

All of these figures have to be reconsidered because our offensive line is horrendous and Fitzpatrick has magical powers, being able to get rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback in the league. And the YPC numbers? Well, I guess Jackson and Spiller must be the two best RB's in the league because our offensive line is putrid.

 

Draft O-Line in 2 of the first 3 rounds. We pick up guys off of other peoples' practice squads and they perform well, but they must replaced. Because they came from other teams' practice squads.

 

Signed,

 

Typical fan on this website

Edited December 30, 2011 by metzelaars_lives

[CardinalScotts]

Chan needs to hire an OC who will be a run first kind of a guy. I think Chan's abilities to call plays and deciding which players to use and when to use them are highly questionable.

 

The Bills three biggest problems were defense, play calling and QB play. The first one was for the whole season and the last two were from the first Jet game on.

 

Draft a Ware-like OLB like Nick Perry with the first pick, hire a qualified OC who know how to use Spiller and Jackson in heavy doses and have Fitzpatrick put a lot of work on his strength and accuracy during the offseason.

 

who to use - to who you? With this depleted roster I don't know who we move the football, and more importantly either do you.

[Gray Beard]

When Fred got hurt, the Bills lost their big, powerful every down back. I think it would be interesting to see how the statistics work before and after Fred was hurt. The Jets have some big backs that can pound out first downs pretty well. The Giants also did until recently, but I think their backs are running out of gas.

 

I have a gut feel that Chan was too pass wacky even before Fred was hurt, and after Fred was hurt he had a built in excuse because Spiller and Choice are not big bruisers. They would go pass wacky as soon as they were down by any margin, which often created 3-and-outs, which just compounds an already bad situation.

 

What scares me is that I can almost see the Bills going after a big bruiser of a back (Richardson) because they may believe that they can't pound out the yardage with the players that are currently on the roster.

 

Using McIntyre to open up holes might help, but Chan is reluctant to do that, and having two backs work together to create and then go through a hole without the defense figuring it out and stopping it is a little more complicated to pull off.

[xsoldier54]

There has been some discussion of whether Chan is a pass-happy coach recently.

 

I would like to present some data to that regard.

 

There is an episode of Football Freakonomics on whether the NFL is a QB driven league (available on nfl.com). Stats for last year are given as 56% pass attempts, 44% run attempts.

 

Overall for the Bills this year, we are at 59% pass, 41% run. Should Chan get a "pass" on his play calling and the rest of us line up for Crow because that's only about 3% off of the league average?

 

I would say: No. In addition to the shear number of pass and run plays, I think we need to look, overall, at how well each aspect of the game is working.

The Bills have 532 pass attempts (#11 in the league) for 6.7 ypa (#21 in the league). The Bills have 371 run attempts (#26 in the league) for 4.9 ypa (#3 in the league)

 

Let's compare a team with exactly the same number of run attempts, the Green Bay Packers. They have one of the premier QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers have 508 pass attempts (58%, #18 in the league) for 9.2 ypa (#1 in the league). The Packers have 371 run attempts (42%, #26 in the league) for 4 ypa (#21 in the league)

So here we have a team with one of the premier QB in the league, they have the most effective passing game in the league, and we have the same percentage of pass plays that they do.

They have a much less effective running game than we do, and have run exactly the same number of running plays as we have despite the fact that we have the 3rd most efficient running game in the league.

 

Does that make sense?

 

Now let's look at a team with a troubled QB situation where they are headed to the playoffs with their 3rd string QB.

The Texans have 435 pass attempts (46%, #30 in the league) for 7.9 ypa (#7 in the league). The Texans have 516 run attempts (54%, #1 in the league) for 4.4 ypa (#10 in the league).

They have a very effective passing game when they use it - but they use it selectively to adjust to their QB situation. We have a more effective running game than they do, and we use it less.

 

Does this make sense?

 

Mike Lombardi has an article excusing Sanchez for the Jets woes on the NFL.com site: Linky It makes the point:

"The number one thing an organization must do is to find out not what the quarterback can do well, but rather what he can't do. The Jets identified early on that they wanted to manage Sanchez, as they did not want his arm to carry the team. The key to the offense would be its physical nature.(....) The Jets had found a formula for winning with Sanchez, and it was dubbed "Ground and Pound."

 

(It then goes on to diagnose the Jet's reliance on Shonn Greene as an every-down back as a cause of their declining run game, and on Plaxico Burress as a deep threat as a deep-threat failure, and to explain Sanchez limitations (evidently Schott has to tell him who the open man will be on each call and if it's a bad call, he panics - the Jets have to KISS for him - the whole thing is worth reading)

 

My point is, the Bills organization by now should understand what Fitz can do well, and what Fitz can't do (and what the team can do well, and what the team can't do). Fitz can read and make progressions like anyone's business. He can't throw deep with accuracy when he's under pressure. He can throw deep more than people here think, but he has to have time to turn, set, and step into the throw. Our OL can't give him that, especially with all the injuries and without a true "burner" at WR.

 

Yet over and over, week after week, we hear from Chan how we're running the same plays we ran successfully at the beginning of the season and guldurn it they just aren't working now, "we need to execute"

 

The Texans adjusted their play calling to their injury situation, and they're going to the playoffs. We failed to adjust to what teams learned to do to "stop" our O, and we keep trying to get our QB to do something he can't do, rather than planning for our team's strength, and Fitz's strength. We have one of the most effective run games (3rd in YPA), and we try it the least (26 in # of attempts)

 

That's coaching, folks, and it's not good coaching.

I agree with your assessment 100%. During the losing streak, Chan failed to adjust once defensive coordinators figured out what he was doing. I also agree that he doesn't utilize his players according to their strengths. The mark of good coaching is getting the most out of the players you have, not trying to make them conform to your system. Particularly when it becomes obvious that your system is not working.

[jjmac]

When Fred got hurt, the Bills lost their big, powerful every down back. I think it would be interesting to see how the statistics work before and after Fred was hurt. The Jets have some big backs that can pound out first downs pretty well. The Giants also did until recently, but I think their backs are running out of gas.

 

I have a gut feel that Chan was too pass wacky even before Fred was hurt, and after Fred was hurt he had a built in excuse because Spiller and Choice are not big bruisers. They would go pass wacky as soon as they were down by any margin, which often created 3-and-outs, which just compounds an already bad situation.

 

What scares me is that I can almost see the Bills going after a big bruiser of a back (Richardson) because they may believe that they can't pound out the yardage with the players that are currently on the roster.

 

Using McIntyre to open up holes might help, but Chan is reluctant to do that, and having two backs work together to create and then go through a hole without the defense figuring it out and stopping it is a little more complicated to pull off.

 

I see your point, but I don't think that Richardson will last that long. Also, Nix promised Jackson a new contract, even after he got hurt. Would he do that if he wasn't returning from his broken leg?

[PDaDdy]

I like Chan as a coach and what he is trying to do but I do think that he passes too frequently. At the start of the year it wasn't too bad because we had healthy WRs. Once they started dropping like flies and we were starting a wild cat QB as our #2 WR you have to run the ball. Apparently Spiller isn't the bust that the whiners that proclaimed him without seeing him in extended action.

 

Basically we had one WR a great starting RB and apparently a pretty good back up RB that is improving every week. Why wouldn't you modify your play calling to make use of the 3 actual weapons you had on the team? Instead we stuck with Freddy and ran him into the ground. We let CJ rot on the bench and had Fitz trying to throw the ball to a bunch of guys who were bagging groceries when the season started.

[Gray Beard]

I see your point, but I don't think that Richardson will last that long. Also, Nix promised Jackson a new contract, even after he got hurt. Would he do that if he wasn't returning from his broken leg?

Since Spiller is not a big, every-down guy, and Choice hasn't been terribly impressive, and Fred is 30 years old and coming off an injury, I think they may decide to go after another big back in the draft or as a UDFA just to be safe. I hope they wait until later in the draft (or after the draft) to do it, because there are other positions of need that should be addressed with the first several rounds of the draft. I am also curious what went wrong with Johnny White. He was drafted in the Nix/Gailey era, but they never use him. Is he a disappointment, or are the coaches just too set in their ways to give the new guy a chance?

Edited December 30, 2011 by Gray Beard

[Best Player Available]

Chan needs to hire an OC who will be a run first kind of a guy. I think Chan's abilities to call plays and deciding which players to use and when to use them are highly questionable.

 

The Bills three biggest problems were defense, play calling and QB play. The first one was for the whole season and the last two were from the first Jet game on.

 

Draft a Ware-like OLB like Nick Perry with the first pick, hire a qualified OC who know how to use Spiller and Jackson in heavy doses and have Fitzpatrick put a lot of work on his strength and accuracy during the offseason.

Accuracy cannot be worked on. You either have it or not. Fitz doesn't have it.

Different sport but none the less a good analogy Shaq missed over 5000 free throws in his career.

He worked on that every single off season too no avail.

 

Arm strength maybe. But with a career of terrible accuracy what good is a cannon, if it can't hit the broadside of a barn?

[Turbosrrgood]

Looks like I'm in the minority in this one, but I don't blame Chan.

 

I think this offense is VERY short on talent, and I was amazed by what the Chan's offense was able to do with the players they had. The way I looked at it, we already had a very poor #2 receiver in Donald Jones, once he, Jackson, and Wood went down the offense simply became unworkable.

 

Fitz and Stevie, and Spiller alone can't carry an offense, no matter how good the game plan is.

 

On the plus side, Spiller has really stepped it up and shown he has some talent.

 

I certainly can't fault people for being upset about a collapsed season though.

Edited December 30, 2011 by Turbosrrgood

[dpberr]

Excellent original post.

 

I saw the storm clouds forming in the game against the Bengals. I knew we the offensive strategy was exposed in the Giants game when I saw the similarities between the Giants and Bengals defense on first and second down.

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

* * *

 

Let's compare a team with exactly the same number of run attempts, the Green Bay Packers. They have one of the premier QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers have 508 pass attempts (58%, #18 in the league) for 9.2 ypa (#1 in the league). The Packers have 371 run attempts (42%, #26 in the league) for 4 ypa (#21 in the league)

So here we have a team with one of the premier QB in the league, they have the most effective passing game in the league, and we have the same percentage of pass plays that they do.

They have a much less effective running game than we do, and have run exactly the same number of running plays as we have despite the fact that we have the 3rd most efficient running game in the league.

 

Does that make sense?

 

* * * *

 

Hey Hopeful. Interesting stats. My only comment is with respect to the Green Bay comparison. While I do not follow Green Bay closely, my impression is that they have had some blow out wins this year, in which they were pretty far ahead in the 4Q. If they follow the typical pattern (don't really know because I don't watch them often), it seems likely that they would be running the ball more in the 4Q when they were trying to use clock.

 

OTOH, the Bills have trailed by a significant margin even in some of the games they came back to win. As a result, the Bills haven't been in a position as often as Green Bay to try to use clock to protect a lead. Do you think that might explain part of what the game-long stats show? I wonder if there's a way to break out the clock usage effect - - maybe stats for just the first quarter when clock usage isn't a factor and most games would not involve a team going pass-heavy to catch up or run-heavy to use up the clock?

 

Like you, I would also like to see Chan stick with the run a little longer even if slightly behind, but I think the comparison with Green Bay might be slightly skewed for the reasons stated above.

 

What do you think?

[Dr. Trooth]

The offense is not even close to being the problem. 59% PASS/41% RUN. So what? If they had a defense that could simply stop a runny nose, injuries on offense not withstanding, the Bills would be good for 4 or 5 more wins and would be playing next weekend.

[San-O]

 

Yet over and over, week after week, we hear from Chan how we're running the same plays we ran successfully at the beginning of the season and guldurn it they just aren't working now, "we need to execute"

 

The Texans adjusted their play calling to their injury situation, and they're going to the playoffs. We failed to adjust to what teams learned to do to "stop" our O, and we keep trying to get our QB to do something he can't do, rather than planning for our team's strength, and Fitz's strength. We have one of the most effective run games (3rd in YPA), and we try it the least (26 in # of attempts)

 

That's coaching, folks, and it's not good coaching.

 

 

+ 1

 

Bingo.

 

The bigger problem is, if he ain't figured it out yet, he ain't gonna! Dagnabbit.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Since Spiller is not a big, every-down guy, and Choice hasn't been terribly impressive, and Fred is 30 years old and coming off an injury, I think they may decide to go after another big back in the draft or as a UDFA just to be safe. I hope they wait until later in the draft (or after the draft) to do it, because there are other positions of need that should be addressed with the first several rounds of the draft. I am also curious what went wrong with Johnny White. He was drafted in the Nix/Gailey era, but they never use him. Is he a disappointment, or are the coaches just too set in their ways to give the new guy a chance?

 

As far as I'm concerned, they can go after all the big UDFA running backs they like. Bring 'em all into camp and let 'em run around.

 

Just don't burn up a high draft pick when we need a pass rush so badly and maybe a WR, 'kay Chix and Nailey?

 

Looks like I'm in the minority in this one, but I don't blame Chan.

 

I think this offense is VERY short on talent, and I was amazed by what the Chan's offense was able to do with the players they had. The way I looked at it, we already had a very poor #2 receiver in Donald Jones, once he, Jackson, and Wood went down the offense simply became unworkable.

 

Fitz and Stevie, and Spiller alone can't carry an offense, no matter how good the game plan is.

 

On the plus side, Spiller has really stepped it up and shown he has some talent.

 

I certainly can't fault people for being upset about a collapsed season though.

 

Fair enough, Turbos, but riddle me this: once the already-sketchy WR corp got further decimated and the "semi-burner" Jones guy went out, why keep running those 4 and 5 WR sets?

[BillsVet]

My point is, the Bills organization by now should understand what Fitz can do well, and what Fitz can't do (and what the team can do well, and what the team can't do). Fitz can read and make progressions like anyone's business. He can't throw deep with accuracy when he's under pressure. He can throw deep more than people here think, but he has to have time to turn, set, and step into the throw. Our OL can't give him that, especially with all the injuries and without a true "burner" at WR.

 

Yet over and over, week after week, we hear from Chan how we're running the same plays we ran successfully at the beginning of the season and guldurn it they just aren't working now, "we need to execute"

 

The Texans adjusted their play calling to their injury situation, and they're going to the playoffs. We failed to adjust to what teams learned to do to "stop" our O, and we keep trying to get our QB to do something he can't do, rather than planning for our team's strength, and Fitz's strength. We have one of the most effective run games (3rd in YPA), and we try it the least (26 in # of attempts)

 

That's coaching, folks, and it's not good coaching.

 

Fitz not being able to throw deep sorely limits the ability to keep defenses honest. This AFCE Blog post on ESPN is probably a big part of the reason Gailey doesn't call more intermediate or deep passes with his QB. Not surprisingly, when Gailey needed Fitzpatrick to make a play against the Giants in Week 7, Fitz tossed 2 picks. He knows it puts his QB in a position to fail, because his QB lacks touch on the intermediate to deep throws.

 

It's harder to keep defenses on edge with nothing more than a short passing game and running the ball. I think Charlie Casserly said something about how stopping the Bills can be done by pressing their receivers, thereby disrupting their route running and timing of the QB. This makes Fitzpatrick take more time, which isn't available because the pass protection, at least from the OT's, isn't all that great. The OL gets a lot of misguided credit because he doesn't get sacked. Well, opponents don't have to sack the QB to stop the Bills either, as evidenced by the last 8 games.

 

For all the talk about Gailey being an offensive guru, he doesn't adapt when people figure him out. It happened at GT and it's happening in Buffalo. Sure, everything looked good in the first 6 weeks of the season, but when teams figured them out as Casserly mentioned, he couldn't respond. Some will point to the injuries, or lack of talent, but if the coach is unwilling to make changes and simply say they need better execution, isn't that a HC who isn't very creative and too wedded to his system? I know so.

[jjmac]

Since Spiller is not a big, every-down guy, and Choice hasn't been terribly impressive, and Fred is 30 years old and coming off an injury, I think they may decide to go after another big back in the draft or as a UDFA just to be safe. I hope they wait until later in the draft (or after the draft) to do it, because there are other positions of need that should be addressed with the first several rounds of the draft. I am also curious what went wrong with Johnny White. He was drafted in the Nix/Gailey era, but they never use him. Is he a disappointment, or are the coaches just too set in their ways to give the new guy a chance?

 

I think that White just went through a normal year of rookie RB struggles, just like CJ did last year. Since he was a 5th-round pick, it's not like they were counting on 1,000 yards from him this year.

 

There is a possibility of FJ, CJ, Choice, White, and Bruce Hall coming to camp next year. If that is the plan, I can't imagine adding another RB, unless he is a UDFA.