Coach Tuesday Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Can someone please explain to me why we even care if the Bills end up overpaying the guy by $1-$1.5 million a year? They're WAY under the cap. There is no other WR remotely as good as SJ on the roster. If they cut him and draft his replacement, it will be more of the wheel-spinning we've seen over the last decade, and they'll have the youngest WR corps in the league. So again, why are we debating whether the Bills should draw a line in the sand at $6 million and not pay a cent more. It ain't your money. Please, tell me why you care. I need to know.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Not only is an insulting lowball offer a bad idea in any negotiation, but there's also the element of a deadline before he hits the open market… there's a time element, a window where the team has exclusive negotiating rights. By flirting with the expiration of his contract it's almost like they're asking to lose him, IMO. Stevie's people have stated that his asking price is based somewhat on a "hometown discount." NFL players rightly play for that guaranteed money because of the extremely hazardous nature of their profession. I seriously doubt Stevie and his people will be interested in anything approaching an "incentive-laden contract." JMO. Well, that would depend on exactly how it's structured and how big the incentives were, not? That's part of the negotiation. The players want the biggest signing bonus and the highest amount of guaranteed money. The team wants to minimize the guaranteed money and ensure that the player won't sign the check and hit the snooze alarm. So you take a starting pile of greenbacks and try to divvy it up in a way that satisfies both parties - that's what happened with Fitz, right? I think if they approach the negotiations as they did with Fitz, and if Johnson has the same savvy (or can borrow some from his bearded bud), the Bills could come up with a combination of signing bonus, guarantee, and some hefty incentives that would give him the possibility to earn MORE than he might get on the open market - guarantee him closer to the low end of what he's slotted for, but put more of it up front. That's how to get it done, now that (as you rightly point out) the time element is not in the Bill's favor.
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 In some cultures, yes. In this culture, the norm is to make a low offer but not one that is below "reasonable and customary". I believe negotiators look at "average per year", ie, when the signing bonus is included and the total divided by the number of contract years, what is the average value?. 5 years at $30 million with a $15 mil signing bonus (what you would offer him) is $9 million APY, which is $7.5 million more than what SJ has been reported as wanting. $25 mil with a $10 million signing bonus is $7 million APY. So basically you're saying you'd make him a starting offer that is much closer than the $2M difference that was reported, which would be culturally appropriate and would agree with those of us who say "no, don't make an offer that's insultingly low" Now the devil is in the details, and maybe he actually wants a higher APY or a longer contract than your generous $9 million upper range. That ought to be the kind of thing reasonable negotiators can work out - a bit more bonus, some performance incentives. The thing I don't know, is whether Overdorf et al are reasonable negotiators or the football equivalent of Filene's Basement. Which went bankrupt. We have no idea what Stevies $7.5 mil offer includes, but I doubt that it is taking into account a signing bonus. Usually when they are at this stage, that is what they are asking for as a base salary, and then there is the signing bonus. We have no idea on the details past "He is looking for $7.5 mil a year" and "He has told the Bills multiple times that he wants to wait until the end of the season to get back to negotiating" Stevie asking for $7.5 mil a season, and the Bills initially offering $5-6 mil a season is not as "insulting" or "low ball" as fans are making it out to be.
BillsVet Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 The thing I don't get is this. Whether Overdorf negotiates the contracts or not. Shouldn't it be the head of football operations' job to say to the negotiator, get it done? I mean Nix likes the guy and if the $7.5M figure is accurate, the GM has to step in and take responsibility. I doubt Nix has final say in who to re-sign when money like this involved. We've seen he wasn't involved much with the Evans trade, so it stands to reason he isn't empowered enough to make decisions that would affect the bottom line like a long term deal worth say, 40M with 20M guaranteed. I also wouldn't be surprised if the team claims they can't come to agreement, then point to K. Williams and Fitzpatrick as evidence they're committed to winning when the heat comes down for not retaining their only go-to receiver.
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Let's see. 5 years at 30 mill, and a 15 mil signing bonus, is 45 mil / 5 = 9 mil a year, more than Stevie is asking for. if you assume that the $7.5 is taking into account the signing bonus, which it most likely is not, $7.5 is base salary per year with a signing bonus being extra. Signing bonuses are only included in the salary when calculating the cap hit, which the player and his agent don't normally care about when negotiating
dpberr Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 I'd pay SJ. Two back to back 1K seasons? One of the few receivers that can catch balls against Revis? Yeah, I'd keep a guy like that around. You are paying for performance and continuity and an expectation of future performance for a young player like SJ. I think continuity between the OL/WR/RB is important so if you have good players, you shouldn't feel hesitant about retaining them.
Turbosrrgood Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 (edited) Here's the thing, the Bills are basically "screwed" at WR. Johnson and his agent know this. They have all of the leverage. IMO, with all of the cap space they have, they not only need to keep Johnson and pay his market value, but pick up another solid WR as well. Be it through the draft or FA. Johnson may have drop issues, but he is solid and has been good in this offense. The simple fact is that this offense probably can't succeed without him. I know there isn't a lot of faith in our FO, but I just don't see the Bills letting him go... Edited December 30, 2011 by Turbosrrgood
HuSeYiN1978 Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 I think Stevie's asking price (if true) is VERY decent... Anyway, I'm more frustrated about Nix not being a "player" in Free Agency... We can't have the Bills ready for the playoffs based only on the draft... Dwan Edwards and Nick Barnett were both injured just like Merriman when we got them so it was low cost to get them and Barnett and Dwan turned out to be good choices made by Nix but Nix HAS to get a high caliber free agent this year if he wants to keep his job... IMO of course...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 (edited) We have no idea what Stevies $7.5 mil offer includes, but I doubt that it is taking into account a signing bonus. Usually when they are at this stage, that is what they are asking for as a base salary, and then there is the signing bonus. We have no idea on the details past "He is looking for $7.5 mil a year" and "He has told the Bills multiple times that he wants to wait until the end of the season to get back to negotiating" Stevie asking for $7.5 mil a season, and the Bills initially offering $5-6 mil a season is not as "insulting" or "low ball" as fans are making it out to be. That's your doubt and your opinion, and we can all agree to disagree. The point SJBF made is exactly a propos: there is a window of time where it is highly favorable to the home team to get the deal done before the player hits the open market. It is very much in the team's interest to do this, which is why it is NOT in the team's interest to stall out negotiations with a low ball offer. It encourages the player to do exactly what SJ and his agents did: say "well allrighty then, let's wait!" Waiting for FA is very much in the player's interest, and if there's any "bad taste" in the player's mouth, he may choose to go elsewhere even if the money is comparable or a little better. That's why effective FO take pains not to go there. I'd like to point out that your own range of what you'd offer him actually is a much higher APY ($9 million) and that more guaranteed money and more money up front is more desireable to the player and less desireable to the team. In other words, Stevie would like to have you as the Bills rep negotiating the contract. Aside: am I the only one who thinks we might have been better, if we'd have paid Posluzney AND brought in Barnett? Edited December 30, 2011 by Hopeful
PO'14 Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 If he wants to stay here...then pay him the 7 million. Here is a player that can go to a better franchise, but wants to stay here. Get the deal done, and lets have a nice core for next year in Fitz, Jackson, Spiller, Chandler, Johnson, Nelson and on Defense Byrd, Wilson, Dareus, Williams, Barnett, Williams. Draft a few needs that will play next year. Get a coach on Defense that can actually coach and lets bring on the 16-0 Season! We are headed in the right direction. Just need to guide the crew.
EldaBillsFan Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 He's worth 8.5 ...... His numbers suffered because of QB play
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 That's your doubt and your opinion, and we can all agree to disagree. The point SJBF made is exactly a propos: there is a window of time where it is highly favorable to the home team to get the deal done before the player hits the open market. It is very much in the team's interest to do this, which is why it is NOT in the team's interest to stall out negotiations with a low ball offer. It encourages the player to do exactly what SJ and his agents did: say "well allrighty then, let's wait!" Waiting for FA is very much in the player's interest, and if there's any "bad taste" in the player's mouth, he may choose to go elsewhere even if the money is comparable or a little better. That's why effective FO take pains not to go there. I'd like to point out that your own range of what you'd offer him actually is a much higher APY ($9 million) and that more guaranteed money and more money up front is more desireable to the player and less desireable to the team. In other words, Stevie would like to have you as the Bills rep negotiating the contract. Aside: am I the only one who thinks we might have been better, if we'd have paid Posluzney AND brought in Barnett? My range is a much higher APY because it includes factoring in the signing bonus, the $7.5 mil a season his agent is saying is not including the signing bonus. Stevie and his agent only said "lets wait til the seasons over", not "Lets wait until FA starts and see what other offers are out there". Alot of players say that because they don't want the distraction of negotiating during the season when they are trying to focus on playing and putting up numbers to get a bigger deal. Also, with the numbers he was putting up, waiting til the offseason would also drive up his price. He has never said he wants to test FA before signing a deal, just that he wants to wait til the season is done to get back to negotiating. There is still LOTS of time for both sides to negotiate, and my original point is that lets wait until atleast February before we all start throwing tantrums because they haven't reached an agreement. For all we know, Tuesday morning he could have a brand new deal signed
Endless Ike Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 So instead of signing after Fitz, he wanted to risk possible injury and wait until after the season? Translation - let's see what a contender might offer me...... No, the bills probably said "prove that you're a top 20 WR if you want top 20 WR $$$" and Stevie probably said "OK, I will."
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 He's worth 8.5 ...... His numbers suffered because of QB play His numbers may also be padded due to being on an offence that lines up in shotgun, 5 WR sets all the time.........
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 if you assume that the $7.5 is taking into account the signing bonus, which it most likely is not, $7.5 is base salary per year with a signing bonus being extra. Signing bonuses are only included in the salary when calculating the cap hit, which the player and his agent don't normally care about when negotiating Dude, this is just plain wrong. The signing bonuses matter to the team for far more than cap hit, because the team wants to back-load the contract and minimize the guaranteed money paid up front. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money paid up front. The player and his agent care big-time about guaranteed money when negotiating, esp. when it's paid up front. That's what they want - more guaranteed money and more up front. Any savvy player/agent would take $30 million a year over 5 year base salary with a $15 million signing bonus up front, over a $7.5 million signing bonus plus $37.5 million over 5 years base salary, even though the total amount of the contract is the same in both cases. The team would far rather pay the latter, as salary is usually end-loaded (eg he'll start out at $5 or $6 and get paid more at the end) - in the Not-For-Long, the chances are good the player will be injured, traded, or cut before that time and the team will never see those greenbacks go out the door. My range is a much higher APY because it includes factoring in the signing bonus, the $7.5 mil a season his agent is saying is not including the signing bonus. Could you please provide your source for this info? I think it's just your speculation, either way, but I'll be happy to be shown to be wrong
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Dude, this is just plain wrong. The signing bonuses matter to the team for far more than cap hit, because the team wants to back-load the contract and minimize the guaranteed money paid up front. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money paid up front. The player and his agent care big-time about guaranteed money when negotiating, esp. when it's paid up front. That's what they want - more guaranteed money and more up front. Any savvy player/agent would take $30 million a year over 5 year base salary with a $15 million signing bonus up front, over a $7.5 million signing bonus plus $37.5 million over 5 years base salary, even though the total amount of the contract is the same in both cases. The team would far rather pay the latter, as salary is usually end-loaded (eg he'll start out at $5 or $6 and get paid more at the end) - in the Not-For-Long, the chances are good the player will be injured, traded, or cut before that time and the team will never see those greenbacks go out the door. Could you please provide your source for this info? I think it's just your speculation, either way, but I'll be happy to be shown to be wrong Can you provide me your source to show that it includes the signing bonus, or any time an agent/player has included the signing bonus amount into the APY that they want? The signing bonus is paid upfront to the player, not over the length of the contract, so the only time it is ever figured into the contract is when talking about a teams cap hit for the player. I never said the agents don't care about the signing bonus figure, or that they don't want the most upfront money, What I said is that the agent/player don't care during negotiations what the cap hit will be for the player, i.e. what the total contract will look like over the span of the contract per year (the cap hit figure). Since the signing bonus is paid upfront, they don't take that into account as part of the yearly salary (unless maybe they were finance/accounting majors in school and fiscally responsibile, but thats a small fraction of pro sports athletes). Some players may be willing to lower their salary demands per year IF its put into a signing bonus
apuszczalowski Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Briere Drury II not quite In this situation, the Bills aren't falling all over themselves trying to re-sign a guy thats already decided he wants to "go home" to play (Drury) while the other guy is jumping up and down yelling at the front office to atleast make an offer before he hits FA because he truly wants to stay here (Briere)
Dan Posted December 30, 2011 Posted December 30, 2011 Can someone please explain to me why we even care if the Bills end up overpaying the guy by $1-$1.5 million a year? They're WAY under the cap. There is no other WR remotely as good as SJ on the roster. If they cut him and draft his replacement, it will be more of the wheel-spinning we've seen over the last decade, and they'll have the youngest WR corps in the league. So again, why are we debating whether the Bills should draw a line in the sand at $6 million and not pay a cent more. It ain't your money. Please, tell me why you care. I need to know. Exactly. As far as I'm concerned, pay Stevie whatever it takes to keep him. This team is better with him than without - it's really that simple. ... Aside: am I the only one who thinks we might have been better, if we'd have paid Posluzney AND brought in Barnett? No, you're not. I've been saying that for a while. No, Poz is/was not the best LB in the league and perhaps not worth his salary. But, who cares? He was the best LB on the team in 2010. Keep him, let one or two of the other scrubs walk, and sign Barnett. That would have given us a much stronger LBing core in 2011. It's the same with Evans, and now Stevie. Keep Stevie, Nelson, and then add a decent to good FA WR and we're a better team in 2012. Let Stevie walk because he wants a million or 2 more, only to replace him and the team is no better than they were. Unfortunately, this has been the Bills for a decade. Let a good player walk rather than give him a new, higher paying contract; only to draft/sign someone to replace him. As a result, we've had the same holes on this team since forever. It's been the very definition of spinning your wheels. Now the new FO says they want to change that; they have a plan. They've re-signed a couple of players, which is good. If they re-sign Stevie, I just may believe that our FO is turning a corner. If they let him walk, regardless of the reason, then this FO is no different than the last several. IMO, signing Stevie means far more than just signing a player; it will show that this team is serious about trying to win. If they let him walk, regardless of his new salary, it just demonstrates that winning is not the most important thing to this FO.
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