Jump to content

QEIII - $545 Billion


/dev/null

Recommended Posts

So the Fed buys mortgages, which takes the banks off the hook, as home prices are still declining and defaults still rising; and banks get reserves that the Fed will pay interest on. I guess I'll refinance when the 30-year hits 3%...

 

Btw, it's been 3 years and a couple trillion of so-called money printing, so where's that big inflation?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All window dressing until housing stabilizes.

 

It's starting to. It's still not good - home prices are falling, and will continue to, and there'll be a glut of supply for a while. But foreclosures and short sales are starting to go smoother, so the market is finally starting to adjust to the new reality of supply and pricing. Prices won't bottom out for a while (3Q 2012 if we're lucky, more likely early 2013), but the market is at least stable and not completely "no one buying, selling, or lending" !@#$ed-up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's starting to. It's still not good - home prices are falling, and will continue to, and there'll be a glut of supply for a while. But foreclosures and short sales are starting to go smoother, so the market is finally starting to adjust to the new reality of supply and pricing. Prices won't bottom out for a while (3Q 2012 if we're lucky, more likely early 2013), but the market is at least stable and not completely "no one buying, selling, or lending" !@#$ed-up.

 

There are quite a few brokers here that are advertising on getting Canadians to buy second homes in the US such as LA/Miami/Vegas. Probably not a huge impact but should help stir some demand for housing. The drawback is that you'll have more Canadians around you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's starting to. It's still not good - home prices are falling, and will continue to, and there'll be a glut of supply for a while. But foreclosures and short sales are starting to go smoother, so the market is finally starting to adjust to the new reality of supply and pricing. Prices won't bottom out for a while (3Q 2012 if we're lucky, more likely early 2013), but the market is at least stable and not completely "no one buying, selling, or lending" !@#$ed-up.

Why do you think the Fed is going to buy mortgages? It's prevention by preemption this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So the Fed buys mortgages, which takes the banks off the hook, as home prices are still declining and defaults still rising; and banks get reserves that the Fed will pay interest on. I guess I'll refinance when the 30-year hits 3%...

 

Btw, it's been 3 years and a couple trillion of so-called money printing, so where's that big inflation?

 

You said it yourself, savers get punished. It costs more to have a modest savings account open than you receive in interest. Have you gone to the grocery store lately? Real wages are down over the past decade. The stock market is down over the past decade. Housing is down, yet Potato Chips cost $8 a pound and unless you go out to the Taco bell 99 cent menu, you get punished.

 

I think you may not respect the idea of hyperinflation which will hit when bailouts reach critical mass and people denounce all currency. They have been doing it fairly orderly now for 3 years, but as you see, the US is on the hook for the rest of the world. If you peg the dollar to gold, there is inflation creeping towards 20% since this mess started. I think that is a fairly conservative estimate to use going forward.

 

Celebrating the modest rise you have seen so far given the macro situation is like Terry Schiavo's doctor celebrating keeping her alive. It's all artificial, and if you can tell me how to make $15 trillion in debt disappear without going into a depression or letting real goods rise at this point....I want you in Washington.

Edited by Clip Smith
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why do you think the Fed is going to buy mortgages? It's prevention by preemption this time.

 

Mortgage securities. Not quite the same. The homeowner would arguably be better off if the government were buying whole loans.

 

And the housing market's going to turn around on its own time, irrespective of the Fed's or government's interference. I've been saying since '07 that this wouldn't get cleared up until early 2012 - I changed that estimation to early 2013 solely on the lenders' incompetent handling of foreclosures. The Fed purchases, targeted for mid-2012 as they seem, will allow the government to nicely take credit for what I expect will happen anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mortgage securities. Not quite the same. The homeowner would arguably be better off if the government were buying whole loans.

 

And the housing market's going to turn around on its own time, irrespective of the Fed's or government's interference. I've been saying since '07 that this wouldn't get cleared up until early 2012 - I changed that estimation to early 2013 solely on the lenders' incompetent handling of foreclosures. The Fed purchases, targeted for mid-2012 as they seem, will allow the government to nicely take credit for what I expect will happen anyway.

Who said it was to help homeowners?

Take the marginal loans off the books now...in exchange for interest earning risk-free reserves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...