Ozymandius Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 Let me say right off the bat that the Bills have sucked the past two weeks. We all know that, and getting to 10 wins seems to be far-fetched the way things stand right now. But let's assume for a second that the Bills can turn things around. I went back and did some research and found out that ever since the NFL went to the current 8-division format, teams that go 10-6 are 29-6 as far as making the playoffs, meaning they have reached the postseason 29 out of 35 times. (Actually the real number is 29-5 but for obvious reasons, I went ahead and counted the New England team that missed the playoffs at 11-5). So the goal is still to get to 10 wins. If the Bills get to 10 wins and miss the playoffs, so be it. We can still be proud of the team because they did their jobs and were just a bit unlucky since 10-6 usually gets in. Right now, I see three paths to 10-6: (1) Upset the Jets at the Meadowlands and go 4-2 in the rest of the games (2) Upset the Patriots in New England and go 4-2 in the rest of the games (3) Lose to both the Jets and the Patriots but go 5-0 against mediocre to bad opponents (Miami x 2, Tenn, SD, Den) Again, none of those possibilities seem likely but they are all doable. If the Bills can't win just ONE tough road game all season long (Options 1 and 2), they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. And if the Bills can't take care of business against mediocre to bad teams (Option 3), they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. But if they ARE able to pull off either 1, 2, or 3, they will likely be in according to the history of 10-6. If not, we can still be proud of them. Make us proud, team. For the first time in 12 years, makes us proud of your season.
jkrules Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 I have difficulty believing that if the Bills do not beat the Jets or NE that they will make the playoffs. If they lose to both of those teams then it seems more likely that the Jets will make the playoffs. I still believe the Bills are going to have to beat the Jets and get to 11 wins to have a shot.
KOKBILLS Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 Let me say right off the bat that the Bills have sucked the past two weeks. We all know that, and getting to 10 wins seems to be far-fetched the way things stand right now. But let's assume for a second that the Bills can turn things around. I went back and did some research and found out that ever since the NFL went to the current 8-division format, teams that go 10-6 are 29-6 as far as making the playoffs, meaning they have reached the postseason 29 out of 35 times. (Actually the real number is 29-5 but for obvious reasons, I went ahead and counted the New England team that missed the playoffs at 11-5). So the goal is still to get to 10 wins. If the Bills get to 10 wins and miss the playoffs, so be it. We can still be proud of the team because they did their jobs and were just a bit unlucky since 10-6 usually gets in. Right now, I see three paths to 10-6: (1) Upset the Jets at the Meadowlands and go 4-2 in the rest of the games (2) Upset the Patriots in New England and go 4-2 in the rest of the games (3) Lose to both the Jets and the Patriots but go 5-0 against mediocre to bad opponents (Miami x 2, Tenn, SD, Den) Again, none of those possibilities seem likely but they are all doable. If the Bills can't win just ONE tough road game all season long (Options 1 and 2), they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. And if the Bills can't take care of business against mediocre to bad teams (Option 3), they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. But if they ARE able to pull off either 1, 2, or 3, they will likely be in according to the history of 10-6. If not, we can still be proud of them. Make us proud, team. For the first time in 12 years, makes us proud of your season. Hope you're right... But based on what I've seen from this Defense this year, the Offense the past couple weeks, and the growing injury problems, I think they'll be lucky to get to 8-8...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 I'm no longer convinced 10-6 gets it done, especially with the tie-breaker situation we're in.
Ozymandius Posted November 15, 2011 Author Posted November 15, 2011 I hope you're right! I'm not predicting 10-6. This thread is more about how 10-6 usually gets the job done and about the three ways the Bills can reach 10-6.
Reddy Freddy Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 I think it's very possible that 9-7 makes it this year, if tiebreakers fall our way. I give the East to the Pats because of their easy remaining schedule and I give one of the wild cards to the Ravens or Steelers (whoever doesn't win the North). To get the other one, we have to beat out the Bengals (6-3), Jets (5-4), and Titans (5-4), and several teams that have worse records than us. We obviously play the Jets and Titans still, so those games will be key. If we beat both of them and then play even with them the rest of the year, we would be ahead of them. The Bengals are tougher because they have a game lead on us and they beat us, but I think it's very possible they collapse down the stretch. I could definitely see a 3 or 4 way tie at 9-7 for the last wild card. Conference record could be the decider. If we don't make the playoffs, I have a feeling that Bengals loss will be the one that keeps us out.
opfball91 Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 It would be a struggle, close losses and piling injuries kill yet another Bills season. Here's hope to next year
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 10 - 6 is a wet dream. Face the reality now.
Ozymandius Posted November 15, 2011 Author Posted November 15, 2011 I'm no longer convinced 10-6 gets it done, especially with the tie-breaker situation we're in. That may be right. Afterall, 10-6 teams are only 29-6, not 35-0 in making the playoffs. Maybe this will be another exception. But as of right now, I think 10-6 still gets the job done. The playoff picture looks very crowded right now but the view could change drastically in a few weeks. Would anyone really be surprise if the Ravens continue to lose games they "should" win, given how shaky Flacco and that offense is? Would anyone really be surprised if the Bengals finish 9-7 or worse? Isn't it possible the Jets faceplant a few more games after that devastating loss to New England and given how shaky Sanchez is?
dib Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 But if they ARE able to pull off either 1, 2, or 3, they will likely be in according to the history of 10-6. If my aunt had testicles she'd be my uncle.
Ozymandius Posted November 15, 2011 Author Posted November 15, 2011 10 - 6 is a wet dream. Face the reality now. But if they ARE able to pull off either 1, 2, or 3, they will likely be in according to the history of 10-6. If my aunt had testicles she'd be my uncle. Since 10-6 is impossible, clearly you guys would wager $1000 to my $10 that the Bills don't reach 10 wins, right? Why pass up a free $10? Put your money where your mouth is.
bruceisloose78 Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 The way I see is if the bills lose either of the next 2 games, our season is over in regards to making the playoffs. If we beat both the fins and Jets over the next 2 weeks, we'll all be back on board.
HeHateMe Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 The Jets and NE are both better than Buffalo and will surely have a better record at the end. This is not a playoff caliber team.
FutureBillsGM Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 (edited) The Jets and NE are both better than Buffalo and will surely have a better record at the end. This is not a playoff caliber team. The Jets could easily be 9-7 with a loss to us. Giants are tough and Philly has the potential to beat anyone on a good day. New York Jets 5-4 9-7 @Denver W Buffalo L @Washington W Kansas City W @Philly L NY Giants L @Miami W Assuming Balt/Pitt get the first wildcard, and this scenario plays out above, Cincy will be our toughest competion since they hold the first tiebreaker over us and have a pretty cake schedule outside of their division. I see them 10-6 unless somehow Houston's ground game can win that one for them: Cincinnati 6-3 10-6 Pittsburgh L @Baltimore L Cleveland W Houston W @ St. Louis W Arizona W Baltimore L Assuming Balt/Pitt get one wildcard, and Cincy finishes 10-6, we would have to get to 11 wins to make the playoffs. I can see 10-6 for us as a possibility, 11 wins.....not so much: Buffalo 5-4 10-6 @ Miami W @ NYJets W Tennesee W @San Diego L Miami W Denver W @New England L The other team in the wildcard talk at this point is Tennesee, I see them finishing at 9-7, possibly 8-8 if Tampa or Houston show up: Tennesee 5-4 9-7 @ Atlanta L Tampa Bay W @Buffalo L New Orleans L @Indy W Jacksonville W @Houston W So it looks like we are Houston fans (they impact us with Tennesee and Cincy). If this plays out, we have to hope the Pats rest up their starts in Week 17 because I doubt we pull off the cross country win in SD. Edited November 15, 2011 by FutureBillsGM
C.Biscuit97 Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 The Jets and NE are both better than Buffalo and will surely have a better record at the end. This is not a playoff caliber team. Yet, we beat the Pats.
Marv Levy Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 Switch the numbers around and then you'll be right. 6-10 is what they will be. I predict one more win for this sorry ass team. No playoffs once again. F&*K!!
EasternOHBillsFan Posted November 15, 2011 Posted November 15, 2011 (3) Lose to both the Jets and the Patriots but go 5-0 against mediocre to bad opponents (Miami x 2, Tenn, SD, Den) There is no way we make the playoffs at 10-6 with this scenario... the Jets would own the tiebreaker along with Cincinnati, Baltimore (AFC), and Pittsburgh (AFC). We'd be screwed...
Ozymandius Posted November 15, 2011 Author Posted November 15, 2011 There is no way we make the playoffs at 10-6 with this scenario... the Jets would own the tiebreaker along with Cincinnati, Baltimore (AFC), and Pittsburgh (AFC). We'd be screwed... I agree it's unlikely but it's not impossible. Two of NYJ, Cincy, and Baltimore could end up 9-7. Also, with the Bills having two losses to NFC teams, they could conceivably win a tiebreaker with certain teams on AFC record (but not against Cincy or NYJ in the scenario we're discussing).
phypon Posted November 16, 2011 Posted November 16, 2011 Since 10-6 is impossible, clearly you guys would wager $1000 to my $10 that the Bills don't reach 10 wins, right? Why pass up a free $10? Put your money where your mouth is. That's some tempting action right there. But why to your $10? If you want to bet, how about man up and put your money where your mouth is and match the bet. How about my $10 to your $1000? Are you in for that or are you afraid to put your money where your mouth is?
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