Bills Offense: This Is Why We've Been Figured Out

[BuffOrange]

This is a really nice idea but it seems to ignore reality.

 

It's wonderful to say we should run the ball 40 times a game but what happens when we go 3 and out on our first three possessions and our sieve of a defense gives up 21 points on the first three series?

 

This isn't a fantasy world where we can just do whatever we want because we think it's the solution. I agree that this team probably should be running the ball a bit more but you can't ignore two very visible deficiencies.

 

1. We struggle to run because opposing defenses have absolutely zero respect for our ability to go deep. If you watched the Dallas game you notice that on almost every play their entire secondary is within 10 yards of the LoS.

2. Our defense is giving up yards in MASSIVE chunks. In the beginning of the season we were at least somewhat effective against the run. The last two weeks we've been horrific on both sides of the ball.

 

If you're going to advocate that we run the ball 40 times a game you better figure out how we're going to get first downs and maintain long scoring drives because our defense can't stop anyone.

 

Right. Putting "look at what the Pats did to the Jets" in bold as if rushing was a key for them is pretty comical. I'd like to know how many of those runs came in the 4th qtr when the game was in hand. They threw the ball over the field to get their lead.

[Dan]

This is a really nice idea but it seems to ignore reality.

 

It's wonderful to say we should run the ball 40 times a game but what happens when we go 3 and out on our first three possessions and our sieve of a defense gives up 21 points on the first three series?

 

This isn't a fantasy world where we can just do whatever we want because we think it's the solution. I agree that this team probably should be running the ball a bit more but you can't ignore two very visible deficiencies.

 

1. We struggle to run because opposing defenses have absolutely zero respect for our ability to go deep. If you watched the Dallas game you notice that on almost every play their entire secondary is within 10 yards of the LoS.

2. Our defense is giving up yards in MASSIVE chunks. In the beginning of the season we were at least somewhat effective against the run. The last two weeks we've been horrific on both sides of the ball.

 

If you're going to advocate that we run the ball 40 times a game you better figure out how we're going to get first downs and maintain long scoring drives because our defense can't stop anyone.

A dose of sensibility.. Very well stated.

[Casey D]

The word is out on how to beat this team, and defenses are shutting down Ryan Fitzpatrick:

 

Blitz happy teams (Jets, Cowboys, Bengals, Giants) can force Fitzpatrick to make quick decisions on short routes, and will give us ZERO time for longer passes to develop. If you fluster our QB he makes poor decisions, and is erratic with his accuracy. This forces interceptions and inaccurate passes that force 3 and outs.

 

So, how do you combat this?

 

You run the ball until they respect the run. POUND the ball in their face. And I'm not talking about simple run up the gut plays. Rex Ryan said it himself, we only run a handful of different running plays. That's unacceptable. We have two very talented running backs. We need to mix up our running playbook. Get CJ Spiller in the game and get more creative. Run change of direction plays, run reverses, whatever it takes.

 

The Bills average 32 passes from Fitzpatrick a game. Freddy Jackson only averages 18 runs a game. And he's the only back touching the ball for us. In games where Fred Jackson runs the ball 20 or more times, the Bills have won their most decisive victories. Freddy averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Jets, and 8.8 against the Cowboys. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what we need to do against them next time.

 

In order for this offense to succeed, we can't continue to come out with the same philosophy every week. We need to adapt. If they want to blitz us, we have to be able to run the ball. If teams start respecting the run and give Fitzpatrick time, we can get the ball in the air. It's not that difficult to understand.

 

Take a look at what the Pats did to the Jets last night. They ran the ball 28 times, and used 4 different running backs. They didn't gain a ton of yards, but they forced the defense to defend both. You have to be creative, and you have to run the ball to beat these blitz happy teams.

Correct in theory, but not in practice when your opponent scores 28 points in their first 4 possessions.

[Got_Wood]

This is a really nice idea but it seems to ignore reality.

 

It's wonderful to say we should run the ball 40 times a game but what happens when we go 3 and out on our first three possessions and our sieve of a defense gives up 21 points on the first three series?

 

This isn't a fantasy world where we can just do whatever we want because we think it's the solution. I agree that this team probably should be running the ball a bit more but you can't ignore two very visible deficiencies.

 

1. We struggle to run because opposing defenses have absolutely zero respect for our ability to go deep. If you watched the Dallas game you notice that on almost every play their entire secondary is within 10 yards of the LoS.

2. Our defense is giving up yards in MASSIVE chunks. In the beginning of the season we were at least somewhat effective against the run. The last two weeks we've been horrific on both sides of the ball.

 

If you're going to advocate that we run the ball 40 times a game you better figure out how we're going to get first downs and maintain long scoring drives because our defense can't stop anyone.

 

Thanks for talking to me like some ignorant child, and ignoring what I actually said in my original post.

 

You have to establish some kind of balance in order to keep the defense guessing and actually move the ball down the field. I didn't say we should run the ball exclusively even if it doesn't work. I said we need to ESTABLISH the run in order open up the pass.

 

It doesn't matter if we're down 21-0, if we're predictable on offense we won't get anywhere.

 

If our O-line can't protect the QB when we're in a spread formation, we need to either bring in an extra TE or use multiple running backs to help protect Fitz. We've got some guys that are injured, and we need to make up for that by giving the QB some help. Not by giving our QB 3 seconds to come up with the same short crossing patterns and screens.

 

Another point I want to bring to the table: Donald Jones was targeted 10 TIMES against the Cowboys.

 

For someone just coming off an injury, with mediocre hands, and limited athletic ability, Chan Gailey sure leaned on this guy a heck of a lot in our offensive game plan. Think about this, an undrafted, should be backup WR gets more targets than Stevie Johnson, dependable receiver David Nelson, and our 9th overall pick CJ Spiller. What kind of game plan is that???

 

He rewarded us with a tipped ball interception, and a two yard route on a 3rd down play when we needed 3 yards. Pathetic.

 

Meanwhile, CJ Spiller gets ONE touch. What did he do to get this kind of disrespect from Gailey??

Edited November 14, 2011 by Got_Wood

[K-9]

I will just say there's a difference between not abandoning the run and running a lot just to make a point. You HAVE to take what a defense gives you BEFORE you can take what you want. FJ has been the HEAVY focal point of the opposing defenses the last two weeks.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited November 14, 2011 by K-9

[Chilly]

Thanks for talking to me like some ignorant child, and ignoring what I actually said in my original post.

 

You have to establish some kind of balance in order to keep the defense guessing and actually move the ball down the field. I didn't say we should run the ball exclusively even if it doesn't work. I said we need to ESTABLISH the run in order open up the pass.

 

It doesn't matter if we're down 21-0, if we're predictable on offense we won't get anywhere.

 

If our O-line can't protect the QB when we're in a spread formation, we need to either bring in an extra TE or use multiple running backs to help protect Fitz. We've got some guys that are injured, and we need to make up for that by giving the QB some help. Not by giving our QB 3 seconds to come up with the same short crossing patterns and screens.

 

Another point I want to bring to the table: Donald Jones was targeted 10 TIMES against the Cowboys.

 

For someone just coming off an injury, with mediocre hands, and limited athletic ability, Chan Gailey sure leaned on this guy a heck of a lot in our offensive game plan. Think about this, an undrafted, should be backup WR gets more targets than Stevie Johnson, dependable receiver David Nelson, and our 9th overall pick CJ Spiller. What kind of game plan is that???

 

He rewarded us with a tipped ball interception, and a two yard route on a 3rd down play when we needed 3 yards. Pathetic.

 

Meanwhile, CJ Spiller gets ONE touch. What did he do to get this kind of disrespect from Gailey??

 

Was Jones' targets a product of Gailey specifically targeting him or he being a hot receiver / 2nd or 3rd read on a lot of plays and our offense failing to pick up blitzes, stop rushers, know what was going on, etc?

[KOKBILLS]

The defense is bad right now. But I don't think the personnel is as bad as George Edwards makes it look. We have far too many guys playing out of position. The defensive ends are too big and slow, and our defensive backs are playing 7 yards off of receivers. We're playing stupid football and we're soft. That's a bad combination.

 

100% agree with this point...

 

Look no further than the Houston Texans and what a PROVEN NFL DC can get out of the talent he's given...Anyone can say whatever they want about Wade Phillips as a HC, but as a DC he's one of the best...He's taken a Defense that finished 30th in the League last Season (dead last vs. the Pass) and has them playing lights out...All that without their best player on Defense (Mario Williams) to boot...

 

The Bills have spent 11 Draft Picks in 2 years on Defense...Plus they added Nick Barnett...There is ZERO excuse for them to be as bad as they are...I'm not saying they have a ton of talent, or as much talent as Houston...But they DO have talent, and they are TERRIBLE...Good Coaching would go a LONG, long way in helping this Defense at least be respectable...Outside of the Washington Game just about every Offense they have faced has made them look silly for at least part of the Game...Edwards is in WAY, way over his head...It was a terrible hire and this is what makes Head Coaching tough...Chan hired the wrong guy and now he's got to go out and right this wrong...

[BillsVet]

100% agree with this point...

 

Look no further than the Houston Texans and what a PROVEN NFL DC can get out of the talent he's given...Anyone can say whatever they want about Wade Phillips as a HC, but as a DC he's one of the best...He's taken a Defense that finished 30th in the League last Season (dead last vs. the Pass) and has them playing lights out...All that without their best player on Defense (Mario Williams) to boot...

 

The Bills have spent 11 Draft Picks in 2 years on Defense...Plus they added Nick Barnett...There is ZERO excuse for them to be as bad as they are...I'm not saying they have a ton of talent, or as much talent as Houston...But they DO have talent, and they are TERRIBLE...Good Coaching would go a LONG, long way in helping this Defense at least be respectable...Outside of the Washington Game just about every Offense they have faced has made them look silly for at least part of the Game...Edwards is in WAY, way over his head...It was a terrible hire and this is what makes Head Coaching tough...Chan hired the wrong guy and now he's got to go out and right this wrong...

 

Absolutely. From top to bottom, the organization is just dysfunctional and eventually it reaches the playing field. 11 defensive players drafted and 3 UFA's signed in the past 2 off-seasons and this is what they get? Not to mention Nix inherited Byrd, Wilson, Kelsay, and Williams. They have a lot of supporting cast types, but aside from the potential of Dareus, there isn't one guy on that defense I game plan around.

 

Chan did hire the wrong DC, but he had nothing to really pick from in early 2010. Just like Dick Jauron had nothing to pick from when he went OC shopping after Fairchild was gone in early 2008. Good HC's, DC's, and OC's don't want to come here because they will not get the support from the front office in terms of players. So promising candidates shy away from openings.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The word is out on how to beat this team, and defenses are shutting down Ryan Fitzpatrick:

 

Blitz happy teams (Jets, Cowboys, Bengals, Giants) can force Fitzpatrick to make quick decisions on short routes, and will give us ZERO time for longer passes to develop. If you fluster our QB he makes poor decisions, and is erratic with his accuracy. This forces interceptions and inaccurate passes that force 3 and outs.

 

So, how do you combat this?

 

You run the ball until they respect the run. POUND the ball in their face. And I'm not talking about simple run up the gut plays. Rex Ryan said it himself, we only run a handful of different running plays. That's unacceptable. We have two very talented running backs. We need to mix up our running playbook. Get CJ Spiller in the game and get more creative. Run change of direction plays, run reverses, whatever it takes.

 

The Bills average 32 passes from Fitzpatrick a game. Freddy Jackson only averages 18 runs a game. And he's the only back touching the ball for us. In games where Fred Jackson runs the ball 20 or more times, the Bills have won their most decisive victories. Freddy averaged 4.6 yards per carry against the Jets, and 8.8 against the Cowboys. It doesn't take a genius to figure out what we need to do against them next time.

 

In order for this offense to succeed, we can't continue to come out with the same philosophy every week. We need to adapt. If they want to blitz us, we have to be able to run the ball. If teams start respecting the run and give Fitzpatrick time, we can get the ball in the air. It's not that difficult to understand.

 

Take a look at what the Pats did to the Jets last night. They ran the ball 28 times, and used 4 different running backs. They didn't gain a ton of yards, but they forced the defense to defend both. You have to be creative, and you have to run the ball to beat these blitz happy teams.

 

This is a really really good post - thoughtful analysis. Of course I think so in part because it mirrors my own thinking. Even Chan has said we pass to set up the run. It follows that if we can't pass because we're being blitzed/shut down on the short stuff, we never set up the run, especially since Chan's apparent idea of how to overcome the short/mid shutdown is to have Fitzy toss long bombs down the sideline that are low-percentage even for top QBs.

 

The Jets walked on the field with the Pats fat, dumb, n' happy that they'd "solved" the Pats. Instead, Belicheck adjusted his playbook, hit them with all kinds of runs coming from all different backs, and watched the Jets implode. I can't decide which team I hate most, and it was still a thing of beauty for a football fan.

 

Of course, losing Wood for the rest of the season is not a good sign for our team.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

This is a really nice idea but it seems to ignore reality.

 

It's wonderful to say we should run the ball 40 times a game but what happens when we go 3 and out on our first three possessions and our sieve of a defense gives up 21 points on the first three series?

 

This isn't a fantasy world where we can just do whatever we want because we think it's the solution. I agree that this team probably should be running the ball a bit more but you can't ignore two very visible deficiencies.

 

1. We struggle to run because opposing defenses have absolutely zero respect for our ability to go deep. If you watched the Dallas game you notice that on almost every play their entire secondary is within 10 yards of the LoS.

2. Our defense is giving up yards in MASSIVE chunks. In the beginning of the season we were at least somewhat effective against the run. The last two weeks we've been horrific on both sides of the ball.

 

If you're going to advocate that we run the ball 40 times a game you better figure out how we're going to get first downs and maintain long scoring drives because our defense can't stop anyone.

 

The pourous defense is merely another reason to run the ball and keep them off the field. I believe the suggestion to pound it implies they should try to move the chains and keep the ball...

Edited November 15, 2011 by over 20 years of fanhood

[Got_Wood]

This is a really really good post - thoughtful analysis. Of course I think so in part because it mirrors my own thinking. Even Chan has said we pass to set up the run. It follows that if we can't pass because we're being blitzed/shut down on the short stuff, we never set up the run, especially since Chan's apparent idea of how to overcome the short/mid shutdown is to have Fitzy toss long bombs down the sideline that are low-percentage even for top QBs.

 

The Jets walked on the field with the Pats fat, dumb, n' happy that they'd "solved" the Pats. Instead, Belicheck adjusted his playbook, hit them with all kinds of runs coming from all different backs, and watched the Jets implode. I can't decide which team I hate most, and it was still a thing of beauty for a football fan.

 

Of course, losing Wood for the rest of the season is not a good sign for our team.

 

Great post. Especially your point of Chan's idea that a low percentage long bomb is the solution to our short passes being shut down. Talk about lazy play calling. It doesn't take a genius to figure us out as a defensive coordinator.

 

And you're right, even though I despise the Patriots, it was pretty amazing watching them run over the Jets the way they did on Sunday night. Even when the run wasn't working, they mixed up their plays to keep the defense guessing.

 

In my mind, our biggest playmakers on offense are Freddy Jackson, Stevie Johnson, and CJ Spiller (he should be). They need to see more looks and touches than anyone else. In addition to them, David Nelson and Scott Chandler are dependable possession receivers and red zone targets. So, we need to utilize them in 3rd and 4th and short scenarios. No more fade routes on 4th and 2 yards. These guys are tall targets with great hands, and we should recognize that. I don't want to see Donald Jones or Naaman Roosevelt be a significant part of our game plan at all going forward. Poor hands, poor speed, and average athleticism will not win us games.

 

I sincerely hope Chan takes a hard look at his game plan this week. This is a must win game against Miami, who is suddenly a dangerous team.

[Bufcomments]

100% agree with this point...

 

Look no further than the Houston Texans and what a PROVEN NFL DC can get out of the talent he's given...Anyone can say whatever they want about Wade Phillips as a HC, but as a DC he's one of the best...He's taken a Defense that finished 30th in the League last Season (dead last vs. the Pass) and has them playing lights out...All that without their best player on Defense (Mario Williams) to boot...

 

The Bills have spent 11 Draft Picks in 2 years on Defense...Plus they added Nick Barnett...There is ZERO excuse for them to be as bad as they are...I'm not saying they have a ton of talent, or as much talent as Houston...But they DO have talent, and they are TERRIBLE...Good Coaching would go a LONG, long way in helping this Defense at least be respectable...Outside of the Washington Game just about every Offense they have faced has made them look silly for at least part of the Game...Edwards is in WAY, way over his head...It was a terrible hire and this is what makes Head Coaching tough...Chan hired the wrong guy and now he's got to go out and right this wrong...

yes and i agree its coaching.

 

Move Spencer Johnson inside, one would think he would be more effective as a DE than LB.

 

Blitz Moats from both sides more often.

 

Blitz 6 guys if you have to and jam those WR's at the line to give the rush a chance.

 

enough of 300 pound guys playing LB, it not clever at all.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Right. Putting "look at what the Pats did to the Jets" in bold as if rushing was a key for them is pretty comical. I'd like to know how many of those runs came in the 4th qtr when the game was in hand. They threw the ball over the field to get their lead.

 

Ask and you shall receive, BuffOrange.

 

Note that the Pats weren't firmly in control until well into the 4th quarter. At the end of the 3rd Q, the Jets were answering a Pats T with a drive of their own.

So while it looks like the Pats scored 10 unanswered in the 3rd, they actually were answered with a TD drive.

At the very beginning of the 4th, the score was 23 - 15 and 1 TD with a 2 pt conversion would have tied it.

 

Here's the breakdown

1Q: 8 passes to 6 runs. Evenly divided between 2 backs. 6 pts off 2 FG.

2Q: 16 passes to 2 runs. Brady was 3-of-8 with fumble and a safety until an effective 7 pass TD drive at the very end of the half.

Score was 13 to 9 and the game looked very winnable.

3Q: 11 passes to 4 runs. 3 ineffective, pass-heavy possessions resulting in a FG, TD drive balanced between 4 passes and 4 runs.

4Q: 7 passes to 6 runs. TD. 1 pass to 5 runs. punt.

 

Bottom line: the Pats were most effective mixing pass and run about equally through most of the game. The Jets let one nice passing drive get away from them at the end of the half.

Of the 7 drives where the Pats went pass-heavy, only 1 resulted in a score. The rest were 3-or-4 and stall.

 

Perception that the Pats were most effective all game when they mixed in a steady diet of run plays by different backs is confirmed.

Most of the Pats offensive points came from balanced drives.

[Gugny]

100% agree with this point...

 

Look no further than the Houston Texans and what a PROVEN NFL DC can get out of the talent he's given...Anyone can say whatever they want about Wade Phillips as a HC, but as a DC he's one of the best...He's taken a Defense that finished 30th in the League last Season (dead last vs. the Pass) and has them playing lights out...All that without their best player on Defense (Mario Williams) to boot...

 

The Bills have spent 11 Draft Picks in 2 years on Defense...Plus they added Nick Barnett...There is ZERO excuse for them to be as bad as they are...I'm not saying they have a ton of talent, or as much talent as Houston...But they DO have talent, and they are TERRIBLE...Good Coaching would go a LONG, long way in helping this Defense at least be respectable...Outside of the Washington Game just about every Offense they have faced has made them look silly for at least part of the Game...Edwards is in WAY, way over his head...It was a terrible hire and this is what makes Head Coaching tough...Chan hired the wrong guy and now he's got to go out and right this wrong...

Exactly, exactly, exactly. It's no coincidence that the O was rolling while the D was stopping other teams. Excellent point, bringing up Houston, too. Christ, look at New Orleans' success with Gregg Williams! I don't care about a big name, per se, but for God's sake - it doesn't take a genius to see that George Edwards is in WAY over his head. He's killing this team. It all starts with stopping the other team ... then we'll have our "high powered offense" back.

[KOKBILLS]

It all starts with stopping the other team ...

 

At this point I'd settle for just slowing them down every now and again...

 

It's really become brutal!

[muffmonster]

At this point I'd settle for just slowing them down every now and again...

 

It's really become brutal!

 

We seem to force a lot of 3rd downs, but never get them off the field.

[8-8 Forever?]

No, I think it's that teams know the following:

 

1) Our WRs are below-average, esp. at getting off of jams

 

2) Our line can't hold up for too long

 

3) The passing game is quick-read and aims to get the ball out fast

 

Solution? Jam our WRs at the line and force Fitz to hold the ball and our line to sustain its blocks.

 

Which also shuts down the running game, because 8 guys are in or near the box on every play now. We are pretty much screwed offensively until teams respect the deep seam pass to the TE or long ball to WR, neither of which we can do with today's personnel. My view is this offense needs short fields to be successful. No 80 yard TD drives for this offense. Defense and Steams need to step up and get Fitz some drive starts near midfield .. give them a chance to be successful. It all works together. Bills offense has been stuck with terrible starting field position for the past two weeks.

[CodeMonkey]

At this point I'd settle for just slowing them down every now and again...

 

It's really become brutal!

Agreed. That Jets first half was unbearable.

[Got_Wood]

Ask and you shall receive, BuffOrange.

 

Note that the Pats weren't firmly in control until well into the 4th quarter. At the end of the 3rd Q, the Jets were answering a Pats T with a drive of their own.

So while it looks like the Pats scored 10 unanswered in the 3rd, they actually were answered with a TD drive.

At the very beginning of the 4th, the score was 23 - 15 and 1 TD with a 2 pt conversion would have tied it.

 

Here's the breakdown

1Q: 8 passes to 6 runs. Evenly divided between 2 backs. 6 pts off 2 FG.

2Q: 16 passes to 2 runs. Brady was 3-of-8 with fumble and a safety until an effective 7 pass TD drive at the very end of the half.

Score was 13 to 9 and the game looked very winnable.

3Q: 11 passes to 4 runs. 3 ineffective, pass-heavy possessions resulting in a FG, TD drive balanced between 4 passes and 4 runs.

4Q: 7 passes to 6 runs. TD. 1 pass to 5 runs. punt.

 

Bottom line: the Pats were most effective mixing pass and run about equally through most of the game. The Jets let one nice passing drive get away from them at the end of the half.

Of the 7 drives where the Pats went pass-heavy, only 1 resulted in a score. The rest were 3-or-4 and stall.

 

Perception that the Pats were most effective all game when they mixed in a steady diet of run plays by different backs is confirmed.

Most of the Pats offensive points came from balanced drives.

 

Great breakdown Hopeful. Thanks for clearing that up. I really hope Chan takes a hard look at his philosophy so far this year, and makes some serious changes.

[beggar13]

I feel like everyone is just repeating what they have been told on radio and TV shows. Chan needs to get creative while at the same time staying committed to the run. If we lose to Miami, I am going to just die of embarrassment. Being at last week's game in person was one of the most excruciating things I have ever been through (and I was at the Atlanta game two seasons ago).