UConn James Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Investor's Business Daily story How big will the bust be? Earlier this week, the Conference Board predicted China's GDP growth will fall to 8.7% next year — about in line with Barclay's outlook. But from there, if you're Chinese, things get scary. From 2013 to 2017, China's growth will average 6.6%. And after that, through 2025, it will average just 3.5%. Doesn't sound so bad? Well, economists generally believe growth below 6% for China is tantamount to recession, given its huge debts, rampant rural poverty, tens of millions of underemployed, massive infrastructure investments and aging work force. So, like fast-growing but overly indebted Japan before it, China may be entering a period of relative economic stagnation — marked by rising prices, increasing social pressures from rural Chinese seeking a better life in the big cities, and rising costs for its fast-aging population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Soon they'll have to move their factories to Angola for cheaper labor in order to keep profitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Soon they'll have to move their factories to Angola for cheaper labor in order to keep profitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Investor's Business Daily story Do them a favor, buy American..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/282207/why-we-need-not-envy-china-jonah-goldberg : “Imagine that there’s a country exactly like the United States. Exactly the same size. It’s got the same cities. It’s got the same number of rich people and poor people. It’s just like us. And now add 1 billion peasants. That’s China.” Obama has returned to campaign mode and his fear-China refrain. To listen to Obama, China’s beating us in some sort of infrastructure race.... The reason China has invested massively in infrastructure is simply that it has relatively little of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 For about 30 years I've been hearing that China's gonna go bust and I'm sure one day these people are going to be right- but most of these people are looking for indications to support their preconceived notion that China's system can't work, they have a strong bias in their predictions, of course one day they will be right just like one day those predicting the end of the world will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 For about 30 years I've been hearing that China's gonna go bust and I'm sure one day these people are going to be right- but most of these people are looking for indications to support their preconceived notion that China's system can't work, they have a strong bias in their predictions, of course one day they will be right just like one day those predicting the end of the world will be right. And likewise we've been hearing about how X is going to overtake us, unseat us, and so on since the end of the second world war. American's are always building up the threat, apparently we need something to be scared of. Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, whose competence we greatly over estimated in typical fashion, we've been busy looking for replacements. And when there are no suitable replacements, we pick the next closest thing and hype them up until they're on the verge of overtaking us. We have an underdog mentality here. Even though we've been the biggest kid on the block for the last 60 years we've yet to shake off the upstart spirit in some ways. Its better than complacency. China may build all of our toys, but the average citizen can't afford what they spend countless hours manufacturing. Literacy is still an issue in China, bicycle and moped are still the main form of transportation. They are still many years behind in their development. China is very much so in its industrial revolution. They have yet to face the social issues and strife that comes with industrialization, but the pressure is certainly building. Think about what this country went through in the early to mid 1900s. Food quality issues, labor rights issues, pollution issues, safety, corruption, etc. Now think about recent news in China. Melamine in the milk, Foxconn, lead and heavy metals in the water, air quality in Beijing, rare forms of birth defects, sewage pipes that go nowhere, concrete buildings without rebar, kickbacks, fraud, etc. The totalitarian police state can only keep it together for so long. People will demand reform, which will increase the cost of doing business, lead to higher prices, the erosion of price advantages. Manufacturing will shift to Southeast Asia and Malaysia. Time will tell how China's economy can diversify. They may have a strangle hold on the manufacturing sector now, but that's cyclical and at some point the next emerging nation will get their shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 And likewise we've been hearing about how X is going to overtake us, unseat us, and so on since the end of the second world war. American's are always building up the threat, apparently we need something to be scared of. Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, whose competence we greatly over estimated in typical fashion, we've been busy looking for replacements. And when there are no suitable replacements, we pick the next closest thing and hype them up until they're on the verge of overtaking us. We have an underdog mentality here. Even though we've been the biggest kid on the block for the last 60 years we've yet to shake off the upstart spirit in some ways. Its better than complacency. China may build all of our toys, but the average citizen can't afford what they spend countless hours manufacturing. Literacy is still an issue in China, bicycle and moped are still the main form of transportation. They are still many years behind in their development. China is very much so in its industrial revolution. They have yet to face the social issues and strife that comes with industrialization, but the pressure is certainly building. Think about what this country went through in the early to mid 1900s. Food quality issues, labor rights issues, pollution issues, safety, corruption, etc. Now think about recent news in China. Melamine in the milk, Foxconn, lead and heavy metals in the water, air quality in Beijing, rare forms of birth defects, sewage pipes that go nowhere, concrete buildings without rebar, kickbacks, fraud, etc. The totalitarian police state can only keep it together for so long. People will demand reform, which will increase the cost of doing business, lead to higher prices, the erosion of price advantages. Manufacturing will shift to Southeast Asia and Malaysia. Time will tell how China's economy can diversify. They may have a strangle hold on the manufacturing sector now, but that's cyclical and at some point the next emerging nation will get their shot. I don't think of China as a Juggernaut but all these predictions of imminent collapse seem to come from an ideological bias or whistling past the graveyard. I do think China is doing some things better than The US - I think China's securing natural resources through business arrangements is smarter than the US doing the same thing through military dominance, I think China's decision to be world class in certain sectors of forecasted importance may be a better idea than to have no industrial policy and let everything be driven by market forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 (edited) I don't think of China as a Juggernaut but all these predictions of imminent collapse seem to come from an ideological bias or whistling past the graveyard. I do think China is doing some things better than The US - I think China's securing natural resources through business arrangements is smarter than the US doing the same thing through military dominance, I think China's decision to be world class in certain sectors of forecasted importance may be a better idea than to have no industrial policy and let everything be driven by market forces. I think imminent collapse is a bit of hyperbole as well. Just pointing out that they have a long way to go before they are even in our rearview. China won't be catapulting over the US anytime soon. The more they grow, the closer the get to dealing with social pressures. The pressures will add tremendous costs to their unbridled industrial system. Unless the Chinese are content to drink sewage laced with poison (the poor boil their water in Shanghai, not that helps with lead. Those that can afford it stick to bottled water), live in death traps next to coal burning power plants, ride their bike to work at a factory for 16 hours and earn $11 a day, then I would imagine change is on its way and their crazy growth rate is unsustainable. Although people have been predicting revolution in China for years and the state has proven pretty adept at keeping the masses in line. Maybe they can get Ko Simpsons kinda rich while 2 billion citizens work for peanuts. Edited November 10, 2011 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I think imminent collapse is a bit of hyperbole as well. Just pointing out that they have a long way to go before they are even in our rearview. China won't be catapulting over the US anytime soon. The more they grow, the closer the get to dealing with social pressures. The pressures will add tremendous costs to their unbridled industrial system. Unless the Chinese are content to drink sewage laced with poison (the poor boil their water in Shanghai, not that helps with lead. Those that can afford it stick to bottled water), live in death traps next to coal burning power plants, ride their bike to work at a factory for 16 hours and earn $11 a day, then I would imagine change is on its way and their crazy growth rate is unsustainable. Although people have been predicting revolution in China for years and the state has proven pretty adept at keeping the masses in line. Maybe they can get Ko Simpsons kinda rich while 2 billion citizens work for peanuts. China has a lot of balls to juggle but from all the difference conferences I've watched I have to give credit that Chinese officials are aware of these many different problems both present and future and are devising/implementing counter measures- and while it is unknown whether they will be successful or not I find them more aware, more knowledgeable, more transparent,and more responsive with China,s problems than our elected officials are with ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 China has a lot of balls to juggle but from all the difference conferences I've watched I have to give credit that Chinese officials are aware of these many different problems both present and future and are devising/implementing counter measures- and while it is unknown whether they will be successful or not I find them more aware, more knowledgeable, more transparent,and more responsive with China,s problems than our elected officials are with ours. Sounds pretty f---in' great! When do you move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buff_bills4ever Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I don't think of China as a Juggernaut but all these predictions of imminent collapse seem to come from an ideological bias or whistling past the graveyard. I do think China is doing some things better than The US - I think China's securing natural resources through business arrangements is smarter than the US doing the same thing through military dominance, I think China's decision to be world class in certain sectors of forecasted importance may be a better idea than to have no industrial policy and let everything be driven by market forces. It's because of market driven forces that our economy is so diversified. China's social policies make it very competitive in the manufacturing market NOW with a younger population, but the One Child policy that's been in place since the 70 mean that roughly half of the population will hit retirement age within the next two decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 It's because of market driven forces that our economy is so diversified. China's social policies make it very competitive in the manufacturing market NOW with a younger population, but the One Child policy that's been in place since the 70 mean that roughly half of the population will hit retirement age within the next two decades. And shortly behind that, the ratio of men to women will be getting severely disproportionate due to infanticide of girls during said One Child policy. Which is going to make for a lot of horny Chinks, who will be virtually flooding the US's burgeoned online porn and sex toy market! As I've posited for years, by 2050, there's going to be 290 million people in the US who get paid to !@#$ each other and maybe 60 million people to feed, clothe, house and otherwise pamper them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 And shortly behind that, the ratio of men to women will be getting severely disproportionate due to infanticide of girls during said One Child policy. Which is going to make for a lot of horny Chinks, who will be virtually flooding the US's burgeoned online porn and sex toy market! As I've posited for years, by 2050, there's going to be 290 million people in the US who get paid to !@#$ each other and maybe 60 million people to feed, clothe, house and otherwise pamper them. Peoples Republic of Sausage Fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_In_Norfolk Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 And likewise we've been hearing about how X is going to overtake us, unseat us, and so on since the end of the second world war. American's are always building up the threat, apparently we need something to be scared of. Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, whose competence we greatly over estimated in typical fashion, we've been busy looking for replacements. And when there are no suitable replacements, we pick the next closest thing and hype them up until they're on the verge of overtaking us. We have an underdog mentality here. Even though we've been the biggest kid on the block for the last 60 years we've yet to shake off the upstart spirit in some ways. Its better than complacency. China may build all of our toys, but the average citizen can't afford what they spend countless hours manufacturing. Literacy is still an issue in China, bicycle and moped are still the main form of transportation. They are still many years behind in their development. China is very much so in its industrial revolution. They have yet to face the social issues and strife that comes with industrialization, but the pressure is certainly building. Think about what this country went through in the early to mid 1900s. Food quality issues, labor rights issues, pollution issues, safety, corruption, etc. Now think about recent news in China. Melamine in the milk, Foxconn, lead and heavy metals in the water, air quality in Beijing, rare forms of birth defects, sewage pipes that go nowhere, concrete buildings without rebar, kickbacks, fraud, etc. The totalitarian police state can only keep it together for so long. People will demand reform, which will increase the cost of doing business, lead to higher prices, the erosion of price advantages. Manufacturing will shift to Southeast Asia and Malaysia. Time will tell how China's economy can diversify. They may have a strangle hold on the manufacturing sector now, but that's cyclical and at some point the next emerging nation will get their shot. Nice post. I have always been of the opinion that its basically impossible to run a country successfully with some input of the people on decisions. The Founding Fathers accomplished that with the House of Reps, at least in part, but China has done a decent job for a few decades without the people's input, that cannot last forever. We have a pretty big stake in seeing that transition take place smoothly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heels20X6 Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Fear India. They're just as good at math as them Chinese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 And likewise we've been hearing about how X is going to overtake us, unseat us, and so on since the end of the second world war. American's are always building up the threat, apparently we need something to be scared of. Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, whose competence we greatly over estimated in typical fashion, we've been busy looking for replacements. And when there are no suitable replacements, we pick the next closest thing and hype them up until they're on the verge of overtaking us. We have an underdog mentality here. Even though we've been the biggest kid on the block for the last 60 years we've yet to shake off the upstart spirit in some ways. Its better than complacency. China may build all of our toys, but the average citizen can't afford what they spend countless hours manufacturing. Literacy is still an issue in China, bicycle and moped are still the main form of transportation. They are still many years behind in their development. China is very much so in its industrial revolution. They have yet to face the social issues and strife that comes with industrialization, but the pressure is certainly building. Think about what this country went through in the early to mid 1900s. Food quality issues, labor rights issues, pollution issues, safety, corruption, etc. Now think about recent news in China. Melamine in the milk, Foxconn, lead and heavy metals in the water, air quality in Beijing, rare forms of birth defects, sewage pipes that go nowhere, concrete buildings without rebar, kickbacks, fraud, etc. The totalitarian police state can only keep it together for so long. People will demand reform, which will increase the cost of doing business, lead to higher prices, the erosion of price advantages. Manufacturing will shift to Southeast Asia and Malaysia. Time will tell how China's economy can diversify. They may have a strangle hold on the manufacturing sector now, but that's cyclical and at some point the next emerging nation will get their shot. It's not an underdog mentality. It's the bullseye on the back mentality that any first place competitor feels they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Fear India. They're just as good at math as them Chinese. If we fear the Indians, who will we turn to for tech support when the dreaded BSOD appears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 If we fear the Indians, who will we turn to for tech support when the dreaded BSOD appears? Just buy a new computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I don't think of China as a Juggernaut but all these predictions of imminent collapse seem to come from an ideological bias or whistling past the graveyard. I do think China is doing some things better than The US - I think China's securing natural resources through business arrangements is smarter than the US doing the same thing through military dominance, I think China's decision to be world class in certain sectors of forecasted importance may be a better idea than to have no industrial policy and let everything be driven by market forces. You actually admire the Communist Chinese model? Do all 10 of you meet to recite passages from the little red book? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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