Midseason Gloating

[hondo in seattle]

I'm not right about many things in life - just ask my daughter. But I was - along with some others here - right about a few things this past preseason. Since I'm so infrequently accurate about anything, forgive my gloating...

 

There were some on this board who thought Nix/Gailey would doom us to perpetual years in the AFC basement. Some suggested Nix was too old and just didn't care. And some thought we ended up with Gailey as a coach because Nix and the Bills couldn't attract a competent one. Not only the national media, but some of our own fans predicted we'd be leading the Suck-for-Luck sweepstakes. There was a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth here on TSW about Nix and Gailey. But some us had more faith and it's looking like we were right.

 

Some thought our failure to resign Poz showed a lack of commitment to winning and a sign that the Bills were a sinking ship. Others of us thought Barnett would be a more-than-adequate replacement. I think again we were right.

 

Some thought the Pats were geniuses for signing Haynesworth and Ochocinco. When I (amongst others) questioned the move, my football acumen was questioned rather rudely by the Belicheck-is-infallable crowd. Well Haynesworth was just released and Chad has been a big disappointment. We were right again. (Ganesh, btw, made some good observations about past Belicheck FA misfires).

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Things that I appear to be wrong about so far:

 

Spiller was a good draft pick (he might turn out to be but as of now… no he's not).

Brad Smith was a good pickup in free agency (see Spiller, above).

 

Things that I fortunately appear to be right about so far:

 

Nix was a good hire.

Gailey was a good hire.

The offensive line would be much improved.

Fitz is a good quarterback.

Freddie is and was the best RB on the team.

 

Things that I unfortunately appear to be right about so far:

 

Fitz is not an elite quarterback (still love him and am happy he's our guy).

The combination of Fitz' average arm strength and the lack of field-stretching receivers will make things harder and harder as the season progresses.

The Bills are in the 2nd year of a 3-year build and are ahead of schedule (this is fortunate and unfortunate).

 

Things that I feel/predict going forward:

 

The 2010 draft will not be looked at as a very good draft.

The 2011 draft will be looked at as a very good draft.

The dismissal of Tom Modrak and the hiring of Chuck Cook as Director of Scouting and Tom Gibbons as Pro Personnel Director and other new scouts will make future drafts look more like the 2011 draft and less like the 2010 draft.

The Bills have laid a good foundation for a winning program… now they have to build upon it.

The Bills will not make the playoffs this year but will in 2012.

[Armchair GM]

I'm not right about many things in life - just ask my daughter. But I was - along with some others here - right about a few things this past preseason. Since I'm so infrequently accurate about anything, forgive my gloating...

 

There were some on this board who thought Nix/Gailey would doom us to perpetual years in the AFC basement. Some suggested Nix was too old and just didn't care. And some thought we ended up with Gailey as a coach because Nix and the Bills couldn't attract a competent one. Not only the national media, but some of our own fans predicted we'd be leading the Suck-for-Luck sweepstakes. There was a lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth here on TSW about Nix and Gailey. But some us had more faith and it's looking like we were right.

 

Some thought our failure to resign Poz showed a lack of commitment to winning and a sign that the Bills were a sinking ship. Others of us thought Barnett would be a more-than-adequate replacement. I think again we were right.

 

Some thought the Pats were geniuses for signing Haynesworth and Ochocinco. When I (amongst others) questioned the move, my football acumen was questioned rather rudely by the Belicheck-is-infallable crowd. Well Haynesworth was just released and Chad has been a big disappointment. We were right again. (Ganesh, btw, made some good observations about past Belicheck FA misfires).

 

not to mention the flaming I took for this post: Not as far...

I'm not saying playoffs or bust either. I like the progress I've seen this year and I believe anothe off season and the addition of 1 or 2 key guys makes the future very bright...to me anyway.

[Dan]

I do recall pretty much every paid pundit having the Bills as one of the 3 worst teams in the league. I never thought we'd be that bad, but I really didn't see us doing this well either. Now, after saying that, I'll refer to my preseason thought... I'll reserve judgement and complete optimism until this team wins 8 games. Despite the recent flop, I do feel the Bills are a solidly improving team in most all aspects. Yes, they need depth. And, yes, they need a few more key players. But, in year 2 of the complete rebuild, I'd say that's to be more than expected. I really disliked and was completely underwhelmed by the Gailey hire. But in year 2, the team appears to be very well coached, disciplined, and well on the way to expecting to win. Fitz has also impressed. After a full year as the starter, then a full off season of preparing, I really think his upside is tremendous next year. Bottom line... Are there still holes on the team? Are we still learning how to win week in and week out? Are injuries and depth still a concern? Absolutely. But, in the second year of the rebuild, we really do seem to be going in the right direction.

[mrags]

Things I was wrong about:

 

The majority of the 2010 class getting better and showing much improvement from last year. Mostly talking about Carrington, Troupe, Easley. I thought these 3 would break out big. Batten has been decent and so has Moats but that's about it.

 

Spiller has his own special section from the 2010 draft. I thought for sure he would break out and be a special player. Maybe not getting the bulk of the load at the position or even the majority. But being able to make the best of his opportunities. Along with this note is my expectations of Chan to get Spiller involved. I know Freddie has been great but CJ needs to get some opportunities and some confidence.

 

Maybin. Not that I thought he would be a star by any stretch but I thought for sure he would do what he's doing in NY but for us. I do think some of his sacks are flukes for sure, but numbers cant be denied. Facts are facts and at the end of the year he'll probably have more sacks than anyone else in our team and as a situational pass rusher.

 

Merriman proved me wring big time. I got so excited likeany of us in the preseason and then the idiot gets injured pumping up tje crowd during his entrance. You've got to be kiding me.

 

When McGee has played he's played very well.

 

Things I was right about:

 

Chan and Buddy have done a great job so far.

 

Going back 3 years I was right about Freddie bring a stud and better than Lynch. I still want to puff my chest about this. Almost nobody wanted to hear my arguments then and it's being proven now.

 

McGee, Parrish can't stay healthy to play more than 5-6 games a season. While McGee is back already and playing well it's clear that both of these guys are big time injury prone.

 

Moats was not a fit at ILB.

 

We would beat the Pats and it would be glorious.

 

Barnett and Wilson would be huge upgrades over Poz and Whitner.

 

We would be at least 8-8 if not better. I know there's plenty of games left to prove me wrong but I don't see us not winnig at least 3-4 more at a minimum.

 

The OL would be better than last year and that's an understatement. It's looking like Wood and Levitre are potential probowlers and Hairston and Bell have played well enough to start at the least.

 

Overall I'm pleased with my predictions and severly upset about others. Mainly no pass rush and the 2010 draft not doing a thing so far. It's tough to think that Carrington can't make it. He played very well in camp and showed he was very diverse. I can't figure out how he can't make the field more as a DE or a OLB as he played it very well.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Merriman proved me wrong big time. I got so excited like any of us in the preseason and then the idiot gets injured pumping up the crowd during his entrance. You've got to be kidding me.

 

What are you talking about? It looked like to me and others that Merriman got injured on the first or second play of the Chiefs game (shoulder).

[K-9]

Football rules state there shall NEVER be midseason gloating.

 

Please go appease the football Gods in a manner they deem acceptable and worthy of their forgiveness.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[eball]

What are you talking about? It looked like to me and others that Merriman got injured on the first or second play of the Chiefs game (shoulder).

Correct, hence the pure idiocy of doing the "lights out" dance when introduced in Week 2 and clearly aggravating the injury.

[metzelaars_lives]

I don't feel like searching for my posts, but I continually said before the season started that the offensive line was average last year. They were above average in YPC and after Fitz took over, above average in not allowing sacks. With another year to gel together and another year under Wood and Levitre's proverbial belts, there was no reason to think their offensive line wouldn't be above average this year. Everyone would scoff at my posts, but I held my stance. I still had them going 6-10 though. Hopefully I'm wrong about that.

[eball]

I predicted 10-6 or 11-5, and I'm still kicking...

[mrags]

Correct, hence the pure idiocy of doing the "lights out" dance when introduced in Week 2 and clearly aggravating the injury.

Thanks Eball. Obviously I knew that he was previously injured but the dance aggrivated it for sure. Chances are it wouldn't have mattered. If it was that fragile it was only a matter of time.

[Buftex]

Jury is still out a bit, for me, on Nix. I still think there is room for improvement in a number of areas, but I also think that Nix just does not have the tool$ that many other GM's have to work with.

 

I never hated the Gailey hire, but there were a few guys, at the time, I would have much preferred. I must say now, I was very wrong about Gailey. He has been an excellent choice.

 

I am inclined to give some of the credit that everyone is giving to Nix, to Doug Whaley. I think our head of "pro-personel" and assistant GM is being forgotten about. He has brought in a bunch of diamonds in the rough, from other teams...been a while since that department has had much success.

 

btw- I was one of those who was sure the Bills wouldn't win more than 6 or 7 games. I think that will be wrong...can envision them winning 10.

Edited November 9, 2011 by Buftex

[hondo in seattle]

K-9, I poured a shot a tequila, drank half, and left half for the gods of football in penance for gloating too soon.

 

Armchair, optimists tend to get beat up by the pessimists here. I wonder if that's just a Buffalo thing or more universal.

 

Metz, good call about the O line. That was something I was worried about.

 

Things I was wrong about:

 

* I expected more from Parrish and Spiller.

 

* I'm not sure what I expected from Merriman but I was hoping for much more than this.

 

* I expected the D to give up less yards but take the ball away less. Didn't forsee this high-risk, high reward style.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I was a bit shocked by John Clayton's mid season grades AFC EAST: New England: C | N.Y. Jets: B | Miami: F | Buffalo: A-

 

I mean come the JETS lost 3 in a row!!

Edited November 10, 2011 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[HARCO186]

I can agree on most of what is said but think the Bils still have a shot for the playoffs. They have 8 games left and all 3 are tied and equal with each othe so 8 games is a lot. If the Bills beat the cowgirls they can make the playoffs. Look at the schedule and the jets have a tough few games a head and so does everyone else. I think the Bills will not only make the playoffs next year but will be contenders for the dance next year. The defense will be greatly improved next year as the Bills will get a couple free agent LB's to fill the need at outside LB. Say what you want about Moats, but he still needs a year or so more along with another strong DE. One more strong LB and DE and the Bills will be a wrecking machine. They may even have it with Williams as a DE instead of NT. Again say what you will but Williams is not a 3-4 NT. He's an animal for sure but not a 3-4 NT that clogs the middle up as Darues has been. If anything the Bills go back to a 4-3 and Darues and Williams as tackles would be a great duo. Wanny will look at that this summer I'm sure.

Getting back to the point is the Bills are a much better team now than last year. They can be a playoff team this year as well. I had them at 8-8 and anything better is considered a great year. Now I can see them going 10-6 or 11-5, and they just might get a playoff spot. If the patsies beat the jets and we beat them as well and we beat the pats we can win the division. It will come down to how Miami does against these guys and us.

[Dr. K]

I had them for 9-7 before the season, and I think they still have a good shot at that. But There's still time for either a total collapse or a run at the playoffs. This team is still very much a work in progress, and I can't really tell how good they are.

 

I figured they were far better than a bottom-feeder, but what's the top end right now? I think 9-7 is still pretty optimistic even if that means they only need to go 4-4 the rest of the season.

[Mr. WEO]

Things I was wrong about:

 

* I expected more from Parrish and Spiller.

 

* I'm not sure what I expected from Merriman but I was hoping for much more than this.

 

* I expected the D to give up less yards but take the ball away less. Didn't forsee this high-risk, high reward style.

Here's a few more:

 

1. Dareus

2. Fitz is better prepared for this season than any in his life.

3. Edwards will get better. No one excels their first time doing something. But with Sanders and Wannstedt to mentor him, Edwards will run a better ‘D’ this year.

4. Merriman is healthy.

5. The veterans now understand Gailey’s offense and will execute better.

6. Our new S&C coaches will make a difference. The Bills will not be ravaged by injuries this year.

7. Younger players are reaching their potential. Wood, Levitre, Bell, Spiller, Moats, et al will be more productive.

8. Gailey has lots of weapons (Smith, Parrish, Spiller, Evans) and will find better ways to use them.

9. Fewer defensive players are now playing out of position as we transition to 3-4/hybrid.

10. Cosmic karmic forces will finally give us long-suffering Bills fans some relief.

 

Merriman, Barnett, Morrison... The Bills LB corps will look very different this year. And that's a good thing. We need to give Merriman a recruiting bonus.