At the end of the day, the Jets limited opposing QB to a league-low 60

[Hapless Bills Fan]

NFL.com article overall reasonable analysis of Bills and Jets strenghts/weaknesses had this:

 

"At the end of the day, the Jets have limited opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 60.5 quarterback rating, equaling a tough assignment for any signal-caller."

 

Had me wondering, so I looked under the hood. And it's not so simple.

 

1st game Romo: 101.9 QB rating. Nope, not a tough assignment for him, just some clutch boneheadedness

3rd game Campbell: 81.7 QB rating. That's pretty standard for Campbell in a run-centered Oak O. Nope, not particularly tough day for him.

5th game Brady: 100.7 QB rating. Typically Brady.

 

So three overall decent QB (I know some will disagree about Romo and Campbell, but overall that's what they are - decent QB) had quite nice outings. Just another day at the office, no tough assignment at all.

 

Here's the ugly.

2nd game Carolina QB by Committee:

Luke McCown 1.8 QB rating (no, that's not a typo - zero-one-point-eight: it was a good idea to release David Garrard and his 2010 90.8 QB rating, why?)

Blaine Gabbert 102.8 QB rating (hmmm, maybe that's why?)

4th game Joe Flacco 37.4 QB rating (he's always been a hot-n-cold guy - traditionally it's been Cincy and GB who really pwn him but he seems to be having a bad year)

6th game Matt Moore 41.8 QB rating

7th game Philip Rivers 51.4 QB rating (a low point in an INT-prone year)

 

The Jets beat up on two hapless backups in McCown and Moore, and gave a serious bad day to two quality QB who are overall having poor (for them) years.

 

In other words, it's not that the Jets are limiting every QB they face to a mediocre QB rating of 60. It's "bimodal" to use the geek term - 3 of the 5 "decent" QBs they've faced have done just fine thank you, while 2 "decent" QB have struggled against them and they just beat the snot out of a couple of backups.

 

Looking a little further under the hood, the Ravens are 13th and the Chargers 19th in sacks given up, while the Ravens are a dismal 23rd in the league in QB hits given up.

These facts might have some bearing on the struggles of their QB against the blitz-happy Jets.

 

As we all know, the Bills are #2 in sacks given up and #7 in QB hits, a testament to both good OL play and quick decision making/release by Fitz. We're on our 3rd string LT, but he did OK last couple games against a good pass rusher.

 

So. If the OL continues its consistent play and Fitz continues his ability to read-and-react, there is absolutely no reason to believe he will not have a good outing.

On the other hand, if the OL falls apart and we can't adjust by leaving in blockers, the Jets could give Fitz fits.

 

Oh, by the way - the Jets are 15th in QB hits and 17th in sacks given up. It would surely be kind of us to ensure Sanchez has the view of the Ralph from his back, with a 300 lb behemoth atop him. Though I'm not picky, a 250 lb LB would do.

[r00tabaga]

Good read. Well done sir.

Thank you.

[Shouldaplayedflutie99]

Jacksonville, not Carolina.

[sllib olaffub]

Agreed, well done! I've never been overly fond of numbers - statistics and averages can be so misleading. I think when it all boils down, the Jets are a tough defense that know how to rattle QB's. I'd bet there isn't a QB in the NFL who would say they don't mind playing the Jets. The Jets are tough. They'll almost surely be tough for us. What makes them so tough? The coach is good at coming up with ways to attack weaknesses, and to surprise the offense. Add to that the guys on that defense are relentless and they are disciplined and just plain mean, and I have a harder time seeing us be successful against these Jets than almost any other team we've seen or will see.

 

But, if we play our best, and stay healthy, we can win. It'll be hard, and that's alright. Actually, I'd love to see us just crush them - but, the only way I can see that happening is if we shut down their offense, which is the weak part of their team. We should be able to score ten to twenty points on them, so the real challenge, I think, will be in keeping their offense from getting going.

 

It's another test, and it will surely show us where we're at. If we win, I think it will just go to show that this team is for real. The only two losses being by 3 points says a lot if the rest of your games are consistently well played, and we've seen real adversity. We beat these Jets tomorrow and it says look out, NFL, the Bills can play with anyone. We lose, and it says, the Bills are definitely improving, and are a team on the rise, but they're not ready to make a run.

 

Let's hope it's a good one.

[XXL Franchize]

The Jets could hold opposing QB's to -100.00 QB rating. Doesn't matter....... they have absolutely no answer for Action Motha Fu%@$kin jackson!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CSBill]

Agreed, well done! I've never been overly fond of numbers - statistics and averages can be so misleading. I think when it all boils down, the Jets are a tough defense that know how to rattle QB's. I'd bet there isn't a QB in the NFL who would say they don't mind playing the Jets. The Jets are tough. They'll almost surely be tough for us. What makes them so tough? The coach is good at coming up with ways to attack weaknesses, and to surprise the offense. Add to that the guys on that defense are relentless and they are disciplined and just plain mean, and I have a harder time seeing us be successful against these Jets than almost any other team we've seen or will see.

 

But, if we play our best, and stay healthy, we can win. It'll be hard, and that's alright. Actually, I'd love to see us just crush them - but, the only way I can see that happening is if we shut down their offense, which is the weak part of their team. We should be able to score ten to twenty points on them, so the real challenge, I think, will be in keeping their offense from getting going.

 

It's another test, and it will surely show us where we're at. If we win, I think it will just go to show that this team is for real. The only two losses being by 3 points says a lot if the rest of your games are consistently well played, and we've seen real adversity. We beat these Jets tomorrow and it says look out, NFL, the Bills can play with anyone. We lose, and it says, the Bills are definitely improving, and are a team on the rise, but they're not ready to make a run.

 

Let's hope it's a good one.

 

"Agreed, well done! I've never been overly fond of numbers - statistics and averages can be so misleading."

 

Mark Twain: "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

[Dorkington]

This is a responsible statistical analysis. Good read.

 

The Jets can play well against the pass, but it's obvious that they don't *every* game. We have a chance to pass on them if we play it right!

[plenzmd1]

At the End of the Day

 

 

Your another day older..thats all you can say for the lifr of the poor!!!

 

 

Sorry, just saw Les Mis again a couple weeks ago..and yes I know the lyrics

 

Back to football

Edited November 6, 2011 by plenzmd1

[Bleed Bills Blue]

Here, let me hold some tools for you while you tinker under the hood. May I suggest this 3-foot long torque wrench to swat any little green bugs you see crawling around...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Agreed, well done! I've never been overly fond of numbers - statistics and averages can be so misleading. I think when it all boils down, the Jets are a tough defense that know how to rattle QB's. I'd bet there isn't a QB in the NFL who would say they don't mind playing the Jets. The Jets are tough. They'll almost surely be tough for us. What makes them so tough? The coach is good at coming up with ways to attack weaknesses, and to surprise the offense. Add to that the guys on that defense are relentless and they are disciplined and just plain mean, and I have a harder time seeing us be successful against these Jets than almost any other team we've seen or will see.

 

But, if we play our best, and stay healthy, we can win. It'll be hard, and that's alright. Actually, I'd love to see us just crush them - but, the only way I can see that happening is if we shut down their offense, which is the weak part of their team. We should be able to score ten to twenty points on them, so the real challenge, I think, will be in keeping their offense from getting going.

 

It's another test, and it will surely show us where we're at. If we win, I think it will just go to show that this team is for real. The only two losses being by 3 points says a lot if the rest of your games are consistently well played, and we've seen real adversity. We beat these Jets tomorrow and it says look out, NFL, the Bills can play with anyone. We lose, and it says, the Bills are definitely improving, and are a team on the rise, but they're not ready to make a run.

 

Let's hope it's a good one.

 

Thanks for the kind words. Statistics are like many things in life (guns, chainsaws, blasting caps) - useful tools, subject to misuse, and dangerous in the wrong hands.

I'm also sure you're right, there aren't any QB who go in saying "whoooo hoo! it's the Jets today - piece of cake!" The point I was trying to make is, it's not like the Jets have consistently turned every QB they faced into a gibbering "QB rating of 60 " willie. It's not the inevitability the media would like to have us believe.

 

I disagree a little bit with the (prevailing) viewpoint that winning this one game shows we're legit and losing says we're not ready to make a run. I think at the end of the day this is just one game. If we play tough and show improvement (esp if we shut down the run) but fall short on the points, at the end of the day we are 5-3 and have half the season left to learn and improve, or hit the downhill slide. It's the 2nd half of the season and esp. whether we can play tough and win on the road that will show if we're really ready for January, even if we win today.

 

I just really, really, really want to see the Bills knock the Cocky out of the Jets Sockies. Last year, the Jets was Fitz' 2nd game after Trentative got the Hook. The team as a whole was struggling - this is the game where Gailey, in his presser, said "we were a bad football team today". That said, Fitz didn't have the horrid day the Jets have given other QB: he only completed 44% of his passes, but he successfully passed for 128 yds, 2 TD, no INTs, no fumbles for a QB rating of 83.6. What really stands out is he rushed 7 times for 74 yds, more than 10 YPC- we had 114 yds rushing and most of them were Fitzy. He fought really really hard in the 19 minutes he had. We weren't helped by miscues - a muffed punt by Ellis (who? released after that) and a Lynch fumble, failure to recover a Sanchez fumble. We definitely helped ourselves lose.

 

That was last year, this is this year. Let's Go Buffalo!

 

Here, let me hold some tools for you while you tinker under the hood. May I suggest this 3-foot long torque wrench to swat any little green bugs you see crawling around...

 

C'mon man! Those 3' long torque jobbies expensive! Too costly for swatting bugs!

 

We want to get those green bugs the old-fashioned way - step on 'em, run right over 'em, and enjoy the satisfying "CRUNCH!" as their egos pop right in front of us.

[boyst]

Good read. Well done sir.

Thank you.

He's a she...jus' sayin'.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

With no apologies to anyone, another professional-quality post by Hopeful.

 

You are one of the select handful.

 

 

Great job!

[CardinalScotts]

good work-

 

Flacco is in the quality item ? The do win much like the Bears taking Rex Grossman to the super bowl with them. Good teams Flacco usually pedestrian, bad team he'll pad the stats.

 

If the O-line and blitz pick up is there Bills will have a big day

[Acantha]

The fact is, you can "look under the hood" at every single defense in the league and their results against different opponents. Every team will have games that QB's did better against them than others, and of course most will show better defense against poor QB's. There will be a slight curve based on strength of schedule, but that's true of every stat and standing in the league.

 

Fact is, at this point in the season and playing against the same teams everyone else in the league plays against, the Jets are limiting QB's to lower QB ratings.

 

This is the same argument people used to use about Schobel and his "garbage time sacks," claiming that he ranked so highly in the league was due to so many sacks coming at times that didn't matter, disregarding the fact that every other team in the league played with similar "garbage time" as the Bills.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Disagree somewhat Faustus.

 

When a team has played less than half their season, the sample size is so small (7 games) that valid points can be brought up as to why certain stats are not representative of the reality of a situation.

 

For example, look at San Diego's won-lost record (4-3) and see who they've beaten… at the times they beat those 4 teams (Minnesota, Kansas City, Denver, Miami), only one of those teams had a victory and those teams have a combined 8 wins this year.

 

Or that ridiculous bye week argument (3-9 off the bye) from last week purporting that the bye was hurting teams this year because of a mandated extra day off.

 

Closer examination showed that only 4 of those 12 teams had winning records, that only 2 of those teams still have winning records, and that those 12 teams were underdogs in 10 out of 12 games.

 

In other words, the season is so incomplete that statistics are much more skewed than they will be at season's end when things have averaged out more.

[jr1]

The Jets have given up 5 more points than the Bills this year. I'm not afraid of a team that gives up more points than a defense coached by George Edwards

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

At the end of the day the Bills are scoring MORE points per game than the NYETS and allowing LESS points per game than the NYETS.

[Acantha]

In other words, the season is so incomplete that statistics are much more skewed than they will be at season's end when things have averaged out more.

But they're skewed for everybody. There's nothing about the Jets schedule that would separate them from the other 31 teams in the NFL. When all is said and done, at this point in the season the Jets have a damn good pass defense. That doesn't mean nobody will ever be able to throw on them, it just means they're good, and it's going to be tough going. There's no amount of digging into stats that's going to negate that fact.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

But they're skewed for everybody. There's nothing about the Jets schedule that would separate them from the other 31 teams in the NFL. When all is said and done, at this point in the season the Jets have a damn good pass defense. That doesn't mean nobody will ever be able to throw on them, it just means they're good, and it's going to be tough going. There's no amount of digging into stats that's going to negate that fact.

Point taken.

 

They have 3 excellent cornerbacks.

 

 

I hope that their pass D isn't as good as the stats indicate and that their somewhat lackluster pass rush (17 sacks, tied for 13th in the league) will mean that they are more vulnerable to the pass than it appears.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

good work-

 

Flacco is in the quality item ? The do win much like the Bears taking Rex Grossman to the super bowl with them. Good teams Flacco usually pedestrian, bad team he'll pad the stats.

 

If the O-line and blitz pick up is there Bills will have a big day

 

Thanks for the kind word.

 

Right on on the blitz pickup and OL. "Course saying "pick up and stop the Jets blitz is kinda like saying "shut down Fred Jackson" - "gee, why didn't the other teams think of that?"

Easy to say, not so easy to accomplish.

 

IMO, yes, Flacco is a quality NFL QB. Others may disagree, just as they disagree with me about Campbell and Hasselbeck being decent. The man has more than 2x the wins than losses lifetime. He had more than 2x the TD to INTs last year and has passed for >3000 yds twice in his short career. He has every quality attribute people throw out - the YPA, the completion %. He's not a guy who can carry a team like Peyton Manning, he's not Tom Brady, and at least half the teams in the NFL would love to have the QB Fairy deliver a Flacco clone to their camp.

 

He is a bit of a system QB and he does depend on a decent OL to give him time.

 

I never understand the "garbage time" "pad the stats" thing. As long as teams come back from 21 pt deficits, how do you decide when enough is enough and it's garbage time? And most of the top QB (Brady Peyton etc) keep piling up the points, so it impacts everyone's stats.

 

Go Bills!

 

But they're skewed for everybody. There's nothing about the Jets schedule that would separate them from the other 31 teams in the NFL. When all is said and done, at this point in the season the Jets have a damn good pass defense. That doesn't mean nobody will ever be able to throw on them, it just means they're good, and it's going to be tough going. There's no amount of digging into stats that's going to negate that fact.

 

Hey Faustus,

 

You have valid points, and yes, the Jets have a damn good pass D. The point I was trying to dig into is that the media coverage (and fantasy football nerds) make it sound like the Jets are turning every QB into a Mediocre Matt, like they're some unstoppable juggernaut of pass coverage/blitzing. And a deeper dive makes it clear that is not the case. So far the teams they face fall into two groups: 1) business as usual, the QB had a typical outing for him (good or bad) 2) two quality QB (Rivers and Flacco) who are having sub-par years, and who really stunk up the joint with the Jets in the house

 

Protect, pick up the blitz, the Jets pass D is solvable (see NE). A strong running game helps (see Oak). Can we do likewise? Tune in at 12 central.