NoSaint Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 I'm not sure that Spiller has lined up at RB in the last two games now.... my guess is that since he is getting all his practice reps at WR until Donald Jones comes back that the coaches don't want to insert him at RB without any practice.... Overall, Jackson only had 26 carries (plus three catches). That's not a super-concerning workload. Instead of bringing in White in the reliever role, they pretty clearly used Brad Smith to reduce Jackson's workload, which I think is fine... Over a season, that's 450+ touches. If that happens they shouldn't resign him. Possible that they are ok working him into the ground? Don't trust his body long term so just wear him out and let him walk (as bad as that sounds).
truth on hold Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 i dont know why they dont try this more with Spillers speed he can get by just about anyone Spillers WR style resembles lee Evans. Does fit have the arm strength to hit a speedy receiver in stride 40 yards downfield on a penetrating trajectory that leads him towards the end zone?
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 I figured he must have been inactive but spotted him on the kneeldown. I'm glad Freddie's finally the feature back, but he's getting our entire workload. I'm not sure I ever saw CJ lined up in the backfield yesterday. Spiller is a WR now.
cage Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 Honestly, I think they should have given Spiller the rock for a series or two near the end of the game. Maybe using the wildcat with Smith running the ball to run the clock down was sort of the same thing. We should spell Jackson more. I was thinking the exact same thing in the 4th quarter, why Spiller wasn't given the carries on those last few drives
bills_red Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 Honestly, I think they should have given Spiller the rock for a series or two near the end of the game. Maybe using the wildcat with Smith running the ball to run the clock down was sort of the same thing. We should spell Jackson more. was saying the same thing
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) I'm not worried about Freddie's touches. At his current pace, he'll rack up about 300 carries. 400 is dangerous territory where RBs get injured more often than not. 300 is just right. Edited October 31, 2011 by SageAgainstTheMachine
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 Over a season, that's 450+ touches. If that happens they shouldn't resign him. Possible that they are ok working him into the ground? Don't trust his body long term so just wear him out and let him walk (as bad as that sounds). This actually was my thought exactly. They have him under contract for this year and next. Run the you know what out of him and then let him walk. Might not be the most ethical thing in the world. Time will tell.
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) This actually was my thought exactly. They have him under contract for this year and next. Run the you know what out of him and then let him walk. Might not be the most ethical thing in the world. Time will tell. Gee, ya think? It may be a business, but I don't want to root for a team that treats its best players like **** in return for wins. Edited October 31, 2011 by SageAgainstTheMachine
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) I'm not worried about Freddie's touches. At his current pace, he'll rack up about 300 carries. 400 is dangerous territory where RBs get injured more often than not. 300 is just right. You forget that hes on pace for another 60 or so receptions, and that is not mentioning if we reach the playoffs. Current regular season pace for touches, not carries, is for about 360 without any playoff talk. 350 is where things get hit or miss for returning to a high level of production in the future, or you often see a down year while the body heals. The 400 mark is pretty much a career ender for most backs, young or old. Im sure you can name an exception or two, but few and far between are guys that have a 400 touch season and then go on for a successful career after... If he gets there, as much as I love the guys play - I dont resign him long term after these two years. Thats obviously some ifs -as they might try and slow him down some. I think with shanny in town, yesterday was a little bit personal, and they decided not to ease back on the skins. Edited October 31, 2011 by NoSaint
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 You forget that hes on pace for another 60 or so receptions, and that is not mentioning if we reach the playoffs. Current regular season pace for touches, not carries, is for about 360 without any playoff talk. 350 is where things get hit or miss for returning to a high level of production in the future, or you often see a down year while the body heals. The 400 mark is pretty much a career ender for most backs, young or old. Im sure you can name an exception or two, but few and far between are guys that have a 400 touch season and then go on for a successful career after... If he gets there, as much as I love the guys play - I dont resign him long term after these two years. Thats obviously some ifs -as they might try and slow him down some. I think with shanny in town, yesterday was a little bit personal, and they decided not to ease back on the skins. That's a good point about the receptions. I don't have enough time right now to dig into the stats, but I read once that Eric Dickerson is the only RB to carry the ball 400 times and not get seriously injured or see a gigantic dropoff in play the next season. Two recent examples of overused backs are Larry Johnson who had 416 carries in his last season of competency and Shaun Alexander who had 370.
Jack Straw Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 Maybe they're trying to see how he handles a full workload before talking money, given his age.
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) That's a good point about the receptions. I don't have enough time right now to dig into the stats, but I read once that Eric Dickerson is the only RB to carry the ball 400 times and not get seriously injured or see a gigantic dropoff in play the next season. Two recent examples of overused backs are Larry Johnson who had 416 carries in his last season of competency and Shaun Alexander who had 370. I posted a pretty comprehensive article from a fantasy site recently. it wasnt out of this world writing but a good data reference. ill see if i can track it down later. 400 was a huge wall. pretty much career ending young, old, lots of career carries, or few. didnt matter. the body just isnt supposed to endure that many hits and still be able to heal. 350 (maybe it was a little higher, i dont remember, but it could have been 360 or 370) was a decent split. you saw a lot come back and play, but a lot didnt too. dont quote a 50-50 number, but it was a surprisingly even split. the other thing the article found was that guys that saw a big jump in touches usually had a hard time with recovery. i guess a shock to their system, while a guy that averages 330 isnt as effected by a small bump to 360. i suppose your body gets some degree of tolerance to the hits when you take them year in and year out without crossing the line. im no doctor, so maybe thats statistically a weird anamoly but it was something that they noticed in the data. like the 350 barrier, it wasnt 100% of guys but it was a surprisingly high split. Edited October 31, 2011 by NoSaint
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) the other thing the article found was that guys that saw a big jump in touches usually had a hard time with recovery. i guess a shock to their system, while a guy that averages 330 isnt as effected by a small bump to 360. i suppose your body gets some degree of tolerance to the hits when you take them year in and year out without crossing the line. im no doctor, so maybe thats statistically a weird anamoly but it was something that they noticed in the data. like the 350 barrier, it wasnt 100% of guys but it was a surprisingly high split. Interesting. One counter-example is Michael Turner, who went directly from light use in SD to heavy use in ATL without any ill effects. But obviously there are exceptions to everything. EDIT: Upon further review, Turner did suffer an injury the season after advancing to 376 carries, but he was still effective in the 11 games he started, averaging 4.9 YPC. Edited October 31, 2011 by SageAgainstTheMachine
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) Interesting. One counter-example is Michael Turner, who went directly from light use in SD to heavy use in ATL without any ill effects. But obviously there are exceptions to everything. EDIT: Upon further review, Turner did suffer an injury the season after advancing to 376 carries, but he was still effective in the 11 games he started, averaging 4.9 YPC. He definitely struggled that following year, even if the stats dont totally reflect it totally. If i recall he also put on some weight though, so there was debate to why he struggled and look slow/beat up/was injured more easily. Was he out of shape, or was his body still healing from the year before? I dunno. I do know I want to say he had 1-2 big games and most of the season looked really pedestrian (say 3.5 a carry, but against the saints and someone else he broke a couple long runs and had 10 yard a carry type days). By cutting his carries in half, one or two extra big runs could really boost his ypc Edited October 31, 2011 by NoSaint
NoSaint Posted October 31, 2011 Posted October 31, 2011 Maybe they're trying to see how he handles a full workload before talking money, given his age. Only problem is at a 350-400 touch workload you dont know til he shows up next year and puts up numbers. at that point if he doesnt have a deal, im not betting on him to be super eager to come back. i think they have their minds made up more or less, but im not sure what the plan is. whether its wait til the offseason, or run him dead.... i think they have a pretty good idea of what hes capable of, what he wants, and whether they plan to give it eventually...
Frez Posted November 23, 2011 Author Posted November 23, 2011 I guess we will see now what RB depth this team really has. Boom....out goes the lights!
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