Carson Palmer to Raiders

[Brand J]

Wrong. The object is to make money.

 

A bad team with chronically bad attendance that is having it's first exciting season in a decade makes money by keeping the momentum going forward.

 

 

Assuming Palmer comes into that franchise and has success. In any rate, money is made win an organization is able to sustain success. Mortgaging premium picks for an aging QB who has been on a downward spiral, eliminates an organization's opportunities to select young talent. Young talent that has the potential to contribute to sustainable success. No other team in the NFL makes this trade, at least not at that price. The Raiders need a GM desperately.

[PS 56]

Raiders way overpaid for Palmer.... a first and a second?

[RyanC883]

Raiders way overpaid for Palmer.... a first and a second?

 

 

This team is loaded with young talent. No guarantee you will get Palmar's talent, even the watered down type, in the 1st or 2nd. (i.e. the picks they traded away could have wound up becoming Jarmacus Russell, Aaron Maybin, Ryan Leaf, Mike Williams, etc. type picks.) They have very young WR's, a young talented RB, a solid O and D line. Palmer helps the young guys learn the game, and also has a cannon arm that will enable the Raiders to stretch the field and open up more space for McFadden. I think this will work out well for them.

Edited October 18, 2011 by RyanC883

[dwight in philly]

Raiders way overpaid for Palmer.... a first and a second?

i think they did also, but in the event they win the superbowl this year, then its worth it. i like "not mortgaging the future" as much as the next guy, but if you can win now, i am all in. in buffalo, we are all too familiar with "building for the future", sometimes i think its nice to win now!

[papazoid]

look at it another way....

 

a first round pick is a $4-5million slot in your cap space on a totaly unproven rookie.

 

the raiders can now take that money and use it on a proven free agent.

 

first round draft picks are OVERRATED !!

 

this was a good deal for BOTH teams.

 

carson palmer is even re-doing his deal financially.

 

 

how did the Richard Seymour trade work out for New England ??

 

their D-Line has been crap since seymour left.....now new england has a backup OT in Nate Solder to show for it.

[billsjackets]

This is the NFL version of Major League. Put a ****ty team on the field then move them to LA.

[wnyBacker]

Would be a great move if they didn't have to give up their next 4 drafts to get him

[Brand J]

look at it another way....

 

a first round pick is a $4-5million slot in your cap space on a totaly unproven rookie.

Every single player in the NFL started out as an unproven rookie...

 

first round draft picks are OVERRATED !!

They're definitely NOT overrated if you're fortunate enough to draft a cornerstone player! I don't even have to run down the amount of big name first rounders selected in the last 3 years alone.

 

this was a good deal for BOTH teams.

Without question it's a good deal for the Bengals. It only becomes a good deal for the Raiders if they're getting the Carson Palmer of 2007. He hasn't been anywhere near that type of player for a number of years now. Until he disproves the fact that he's regressing, he is and will continue to be, a name.

[Orton's Arm]

i think they did also, but in the event they win the superbowl this year, then its worth it. i like "not mortgaging the future" as much as the next guy, but if you can win now, i am all in. in buffalo, we are all too familiar with "building for the future", sometimes i think its nice to win now!

I disagree with the bolded statement. The Bills' poor track record is due in large part to management's shortsightedness.

 

Over the last 40 years, the Bills have used their first pick of the draft on a RB ten different times. During that span, they have not once used their first pick of the draft on a QB.

 

A RB is a "win now" type pick, because it's expected that a rookie RB can come in and contribute immediately. The downside is that RBs typically have short careers. A QB is a build for the future pick, because rookie QBs are typically useless, and belong firmly on the bench. The upside is that a QB is the most important player on the team, and QBs tend to have longer careers than players at most other positions.

 

TD's regime is a perfect example of "win now." In his very first draft, he used a second round pick on a RB, even though the Bills already had Antowain Smith. A few years later he'd use a first round pick on another RB even though the Bills already had Travis Henry. The second time around he tried to make himself seem future-oriented, by pointing out that McGahee would be out with an injury during his rookie year. But the bottom line is that he was still spinning his wheels at the RB position instead of implementing a serious blueprint to build a successful team over the long haul.

 

Similarly, TD traded away a first round pick for an aging veteran (Bledsoe), who was released three years later. He allowed his DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment to go first-contract-and-out. Letting Antoine Winfield leave gave TD the salary cap space he needed to overpay for an aging Troy Vincent and for Lawyer Milloy.

 

The Bills went 5-11 in 2005, TD's fifth (and last) season with the team. Not only were the Bills a bad team, they were an aging bad team. There were no long-term solutions at four of the five OL spots, there was nothing at quarterback, nothing at WR except for Lee Evans, very little in the defensive front-7 except for Aaron Schobel, and little or nothing at safety.

 

Back when TD was general manager, Marv Levy praised the trade for Bledsoe. He said that if you used a first round pick on a QB and it turned out to be Drew Bledsoe, you'd be very happy with the pick. Shortly after becoming GM, he said that if you build for the future, you're building for someone else's future. Based on these data, it should surprise no one that Marv continued "living for the moment," exactly as TD had done. He went into his first draft with the thought that the defense had to be improved right away, with the two most critical positions being SS and DT. That blinkered focus was why he ignored better players at other positions in order to squander his first round picks on Whitner and McCargo.

 

Going into his second draft, Marv once again adopted a "live for today" mentality. Not content with the 12,535 early picks the Bills had used on RBs over the last decade, Marv decided to use the 12th overall pick on yet another RB. He then traded up in the second round to grab a LB, in part because LBs are typically expected to make solid contributions their rookie years.

 

In addition to these things, Jabari Greer was allowed to go first-contract-and-out, and the 12th overall pick was used on his intended replacement (McKelvin). Throwing away top-15 picks like this in a "live for today" celebration would be inexcusable--at least to someone seriously interested in building the team for the long haul. It is absolutely boneheaded to create holes by letting your youngest and best players leave by free agency, only to use your very best draft picks to fill those holes.

 

Bill Belichick is a guy who builds for the future. The kind of trade Belichick loves the most is to trade away the Patriots' second round pick in this year's draft for the other team's first round pick in next year's draft. Do you think a guy like Belichick would have indulged himself in even a tenth of the outright stupidity of the TD/Levy era? His disciplined approach to building a team is one of the reasons why the Patriots obtained three Super Bowl rings under his regime.

 

The Raiders appear to have adopted the same "live for today" shortsighted mentality associated with TD and Levy. Not only is this an extremely bad trade for the Raiders, but I strongly suspect that if this decision is representative of how the franchise is being run, they are unlikely to have much success until their current GM is replaced.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Edwards' Arm

[Mike in Horseheads]

I disagree with the bolded statement. The Bills' poor track record is due in large part to management's shortsightedness.

 

Over the last 40 years, the Bills have used their first pick of the draft on a RB ten different times. During that span, they have not once used their first pick of the draft on a QB.

 

A RB is a "win now" type pick, because it's expected that a rookie RB can come in and contribute immediately. The downside is that RBs typically have short careers. A QB is a build for the future pick, because rookie QBs are typically useless, and belong firmly on the bench. The upside is that a QB is the most important player on the team, and QBs tend to have longer careers than players at most other positions.

 

TD's regime is a perfect example of "win now." In his very first draft, he used a second round pick on a RB, even though the Bills already had Antowain Smith. A few years later he'd use a first round pick on another RB even though the Bills already had Travis Henry. The second time around he tried to make himself seem future-oriented, by pointing out that McGahee would be out with an injury during his rookie year. But the bottom line is that he was still spinning his wheels at the RB position instead of implementing a serious blueprint to build a successful team over the long haul.

 

Similarly, TD traded away a first round pick for an aging veteran (Bledsoe), who was released three years later. He allowed his DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment to go first-contract-and-out. Letting Antoine Winfield leave gave TD the salary cap space he needed to overpay for an aging Troy Vincent and for Lawyer Milloy.

 

The Bills went 5-11 in 2005, TD's fifth (and last) season with the team. Not only were the Bills a bad team, they were an aging bad team. There were no long-term solutions at four of the five OL spots, there was nothing at quarterback, nothing at WR except for Lee Evans, very little in the defensive front-7 except for Aaron Schobel, and little or nothing at safety.

 

Back when TD was general manager, Marv Levy praised the trade for Bledsoe. He said that if you used a first round pick on a QB and it turned out to be Drew Bledsoe, you'd be very happy with the pick. Shortly after becoming GM, he said that if you build for the future, you're building for someone else's future. Based on these data, it should surprise no one that Marv continued "living for the moment," exactly as TD had done. He went into his first draft with the thought that the defense had to be improved right away, with the two most critical positions being SS and DT. That blinkered focus was why he ignored better players at other positions in order to squander his first round picks on Whitner and McCargo.

 

Going into his second draft, Marv once again adopted a "live for today" mentality. Not content with the 12,535 early picks the Bills had used on RBs over the last decade, Marv decided to use the 12th overall pick on yet another RB. He then traded up in the second round to grab a LB, in part because LBs are typically expected to make solid contributions their rookie years.

 

In addition to these things, Jabari Greer was allowed to go first-contract-and-out, and the 12th overall pick was used on his intended replacement (McKelvin). Throwing away top-15 picks like this in a "live for today" celebration would be inexcusable--at least to someone seriously interested in building the team for the long haul. It is absolutely boneheaded to create holes by letting your youngest and best players leave by free agency, only to use your very best draft picks to fill those holes.

 

Bill Belichick is a guy who builds for the future. The kind of trade Belichick loves the most is to trade away the Patriots' second round pick in this year's draft for the other team's first round pick in next year's draft. Do you think a guy like Belichick would have indulged himself in even a tenth of the outright stupidity of the TD/Levy era? His disciplined approach to building a team is one of the reasons why the Patriots obtained three Super Bowl rings under his regime.

 

The Raiders appear to have adopted the same "live for today" shortsighted mentality associated with TD and Levy. Not only is this an extremely bad trade for the Raiders, but I strongly suspect that if this decision is representative of how the franchise is being run, they are unlikely to have much success until their current GM is replaced.

...Guess its nit picking that Jim Kelly was a first round pick.

[bills_red]

lol at the Raiders

 

this is the worst trade in nfl history.

 

agree

[BringBackFlutie]

Carson Palmer is a Drew Bledsoe clone in just about every way imaginable. This is the Bledsoe trade all over again.

 

I made this reference to my girlfriend- who thought the trade was a GREAT idea (used to be a Bengals fan until I forcefully pointed her in the right direction of fandom). However, I thought the situation was similar- but Carson a Drew Bledsoe clone? Are you kidding me? Drew Bledsoe was a sniff away from the hall of fame if he won the SB against the Pack, and he had a cannon for an arm. He was much more valuable pre-Bills.

 

lol at the Raiders

 

this is the worst trade in nfl history.

 

...Atlanta/Cleveland, 2011 NFL Draft, comes to mind.

Edited October 18, 2011 by BringBackFlutie

[Billshank Redemption]

This team is loaded with young talent. No guarantee you will get Palmar's talent, even the watered down type, in the 1st or 2nd. (i.e. the picks they traded away could have wound up becoming Jarmacus Russell, Aaron Maybin, Ryan Leaf, Mike Williams, etc. type picks.) They have very young WR's, a young talented RB, a solid O and D line. Palmer helps the young guys learn the game, and also has a cannon arm that will enable the Raiders to stretch the field and open up more space for McFadden. I think this will work out well for them.

Have you seen how that girl throws the football?

[Orton's Arm]

...Guess its nit picking that Jim Kelly was a first round pick.

No, it's not nitpicking. I respect your desire to see errors corrected.

 

In this case there was no error. Jim Kelly was a first round pick, but he wasn't the Bills' first pick of that draft. In 1983, the Bills used the first of their two first round picks on Tony Hunter, TE. The second of their two first rounders was used on Jim Kelly.

 

Hunter went 12th overall, and Kelly was taken 14th overall. It's been convincingly argued that such a small draft position difference is almost the same thing as using one's first pick of the draft on a QB. This contrasts to the 2004 draft, when the Bills used the 13th overall pick on Lee Evans, and the 22nd overall pick on Losman. A difference like that is significant, and means a lot more than the difference between 12th and 14th overall!

 

Jim Kelly was the closest the Bills ever came to using their first draft pick on a QB. The Kelly era was the brightest time in Bills' history. Somehow I don't think those two things are a coincidence!

 

I'm not implying that using an early pick on a QB is a guarantee of success. But if a team doesn't have a real QB, and doesn't intend to use an early pick to obtain one, odds are that it's setting itself up for long-term failure. Hoping that one's team will be the next recipient of a Tom Brady story is like confusing a lottery ticket with a retirement plan.

[NoSaint]

No, it's not nitpicking. I respect your desire to see errors corrected.

 

In this case there was no error. Jim Kelly was a first round pick, but he wasn't the Bills' first pick of that draft. In 1983, the Bills used the first of their two first round picks on Tony Hunter, TE. The second of their two first rounders was used on Jim Kelly.

 

Hunter went 12th overall, and Kelly was taken 14th overall. It's been convincingly argued that such a small draft position difference is almost the same thing as using one's first pick of the draft on a QB. This contrasts to the 2004 draft, when the Bills used the 13th overall pick on Lee Evans, and the 22nd overall pick on Losman. A difference like that is significant, and means a lot more than the difference between 12th and 14th overall!

 

Jim Kelly was the closest the Bills ever came to using their first draft pick on a QB. The Kelly era was the brightest time in Bills' history. Somehow I don't think those two things are a coincidence!

 

I'm not implying that using an early pick on a QB is a guarantee of success. But if a team doesn't have a real QB, and doesn't intend to use an early pick to obtain one, odds are that it's setting itself up for long-term failure. Hoping that one's team will be the next recipient of a Tom Brady story is like confusing a lottery ticket with a retirement plan.

 

 

frankly, yes. i think you just explained about 50 years of football in one post. taking a qb first isnt a promise of success, but not taking one is nearly a promise that you wont succeed. good teams get their premiere player at the premiere position. bad teams hope that guy shows up.

 

i will say that the bills have used first round picks on more than jp and kelly - pointing to trades for bledsoe and RJ - but thats not the same as investing in that guy that has elite tangible skills, minimal question marks, is young, and having him in your system from the start.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

For those commenting that Campbell will be back this season, two things.

 

Different people have different recovery periods for a broken collarbone. When I saw the play where Campbell got tackled and injured, I immediately knew it was a collarbone and I believe that it was a clean break. .. that it snapped when he hit the ground. That said, there's no guarantee that his bones mend fully and that he's ready to play football in 6 weeks. By that time, the Raiders season could go down the tubes courtesy of Kyle Boller. So not only was this trade an attempt to save the Raiders' season, there's also no guarantee that Campbell would recover sufficiently to play well upon his return. Campbell has to overcome the physical part and the psychological part of coming back from a broken clavicle.

 

For those suggesting that Campbell is available in a trade, I guess that's possible but part of this whole deal is the fact that Campbell is a free agent after this year. It's likely now that he will not be back with the Raiders next year.

 

For those questioning how quickly Palmer can pick up the new offense, Raiders HC Hue Jackson and Carson Palmer were together with the Bengals. More precisely, Jackson was the Bengals receivers coach and I've heard here in the bay area that Jackson/the Raiders are running a similar offense to the one that Jackson and Palmer collaborated on in Cincinnati… the point being that one might infer that Palmer will pick up the Raiders offense fairly quickly.

 

For those stating that Palmer has a big arm, I'm not sure to what degree that is still true. Over the past several seasons, Palmer's had elbow problems for which he's refused to have surgery for and the last several times I saw him play, his arm looked good but clearly not as powerful as it was earlier in his career. Which brings us to the last point.

 

Several posters are incredulous that Palmer would be able to pass a physical because of his recent inactivity. A physical examination has zero to do with fitness. It has everything to do with injuries and medical conditions.

 

If Palmer's elbow is considered sound, he will pass his physical.

 

 

[CardinalScotts]

In 2005 Carson Palmer was one hell of a quarterback- since then he's a middle of the road guy. Raiders over paid, if the Bengals knew how to draft they could be dangerous but odds are they will screw it up. Palmer has had surgeries on his knee and thumb as well as a bad elbow. How long till he learns the playbook, how long til he's in playing shape, what about the arm you just don't roll of the couch arm ready to go. Gutsy move but the Raiders don't have a pick next year til 5th round, and not much in 2013 either.

Edited October 19, 2011 by CardinalScotts

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Looks like it's official....1st rounder in '12 and possible 1st in '13....helluva price to pay

It's too much, especially for a guy Palmer's age and with his injury history.

[truth on hold]

It's an extraordinary price in this era when draft picks are so highly valued. Have to wonder how Al's passing play into this: something he was holding up or something they thought he would have wanted?

Cinci made out like bandits that's for sure

[maryland-bills-fan]

I think this was a good trade for Oakland. Lets assume that the trade was for one first next year and a conditional 1st to third the following year. Okay, then if it comes out to two successive 1st round picks, then it means that Oakland got into the playoffs. Also, remember that picks in the year after the upcoming draft are discounted in value and therefore go up one round. (example: a 2011 2nd round pick is about the same value as a 2012 1st round pick).

 

What do the Raiders give up? If the make the playoffs, they give up a pick that is somewhere 21st to 32nd in the upcoming draft and something that might be worth a 56 to 64th player this year. They might get two nice players out of that. Instead they get a real nice QB. One nice player for sure, and not 2 probable nice players. One nice player for sure at the hardest position to fill, rather they maybe two busts. They also give Campbell a few years to get up to speed in the NFL, rather than being thrown into the fire and burning up. This alone might be worth a 2nd round pick.

 

Right now, the Raiders are on the cusp of making the playoffs. Palmer is an upgrade at QB, so they have improved their chance of making the playoffs even more. They have a strong running game, which makes the transition to a new QB easier. They have the hapless Chiefs next, then a bye and then the hapless Broncos. That gives Palmer 4 weeks to get ready for the Chargers. Oh, by the way, Hue Jackson was WR coach with the Bengals 205-2006 so he is familiar with Palmer.

 

So, if they don't make the trade, they are out of the playoffs. If they make the trade and make the AFC championship game, they lose two picks somewhere in the 28-32 range, but have a successful season and a veteran, proven NFL QB. Remember that if you are a middle-of-the-pack team, you have to take advantage of any opportunity to get into the playoffs and the superbowl. Or would you rather a perpetual "nice try" team?

 

Its a no-brainer.

Edited October 19, 2011 by maryland-bills-fan