Andrew Luck - Contrarian Post

[Brand J]

I've seen a few full games from Luck and while I wasn't blown away by his arm strength, he has EVERYTHING else that you want in a QB - anticipation, accuracy, vision, leadership, size, athleticism, and great touch. He throws a very catchable ball. I think we'd be 4-2 with a rookie Luck right now, as I don't see him leading the comebacks against the Pats and Raidahs, but I think he makes the throws to beat the Bengals and Giants. Luck will be an outstanding get for IND or MIA. A franchise changer.

[Ozymandius]

Luck has a great arm.

 

There will always be naysayers. Some folks thought he'd be the next Locker and take a drastic fall in draft position. Haven't heard a peep from them lately.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Ozymandius

[LabattBlue]

I've watched over 20 of his games and parts of many others. He has a huge arm and can gun the ball. Not Elway strength but hardly anyone did or does. Arm strength for Luck is not only not an issue, it's a strength. A lot of times his ball seems to not be fired because he changes velocity on it depending on the need. Some QBs just gun every throw. Luck throws as hard as he needs to make it easy for the WR to catch the ball. When he wants and needs to gun it he guns it. His touch is extraordinary. He misses some deep throws at times, but he connects on a ton of them. The long ball is not at all an issue with him.

 

It is easy to watch some of his games, or portions of his games, and say that he has great protection, or WR wide open or a good running game. All of that is true. You can't blame him for that though. When the rush comes he moves in the pocket well or senses the rush or scrambles and looks downfield and throws on the run well, or he runs great. When guys are covered he most often threads the needle. When there is little run game he throws all the time and still delivers.

 

He's not always going to throw the ball great all game long, but in the game in question in the OP, which really wasn't one of his better games, and he started slow, he was 23-36 for 336 yards and 4 TD with 1 INT.

 

Here's a little bit of arm strength...

 

youtube.com/watch?v=rWu9SEerxkU

Thanks for bringing some insights to the discussion. I think the OP is already trashing Luck knowing that he may end up with the Dolphins, in a manner that is similar to the way some folks here still don't believe Brady is a GREAT QB(mainly because he has owned the Bills for close to a decade).

[The AntiFin]

he is a once in a decade QB.....can do it all.

 

 

make up the most ridiculous trade (the entire draft #1-7, three #1's, any player ) and i would gut my team and build around him.

Mike Ditka posts in our forums!

[KD in CA]

I have watched five or six complete games now. My take is that he is more of a system QB than a franchise QB. I see lots of great things in terms of vision and accuracy with just enough athleticism. However most of his throws are short and intermediate routes to TE's, RB's, and curl patterns to WR's. He has a wonderful offensive line, rarely gets any pressure, and an outstanding running game. His deep ball floats and his over the middle and sideline throws don't seem to have a lot of velocity. This past week against lowly Washington State he had several bad deep throws in the first half.

I'm not saying he won't be the top pick in the draft but he is looking less like John Elway and and more like Matt Leinart.

 

Most of any QBs throws in any system are short and intermediate routes.

 

I'll defer to the west coast guys who watch him all the time, but from what I've seen, there is no comparison between Luck and Leinart.

[AxelRipper]

If Luck was truly a system QB, he'd be sucking this year in a system that just changed. Even with a coaching change and a lot of players that left due to that (as usually happens) he stuck around and is just as good under new coaching as he was previously. I expected his stock to drop off this year as most senior QB's do, especially under new systems, but he is still #1. That says something about how good he is at the game.

[Orton's Arm]

he is a once in a decade QB.....can do it all.

 

 

make up the most ridiculous trade (the entire draft #1-7, three #1's, any player ) and i would gut my team and build around him.

I feel the same way. A franchise QB changes the equation for your entire team. If you look at legitimate Super Bowl contenders, just about every one of them has a bona fide franchise QB. Once you have the most valuable and hardest-to-obtain piece of the puzzle, you can build around it.

[Scraps]

I have two words to add: Ryan Leaf... bottom line is that no matter how highly a prospect is touted, you never know how they will turn out.

 

The concern with Ryan Leaf was that he might be a head case, and he was. Nobody is saying that about Luck.

[Orton's Arm]

Mike Ditka posts in our forums!

The New York times performed a regression analysis to determine the relative value of the passing game versus a running game. Reducing your QB's interception percentage is just as important as improving your RB's yards per carry. Improving your QB's yards per attempt is three times as important as improving your RB's yards per attempt. Overall, the passing attack is four times as important as the running game.

 

I'd argue that the ceiling of your running game is determined at least as much by your offensive line as by your RB. Conversely, the ceiling of your passing game is dictated by your QB. An offense with Trent Dilfer lining up under center will have a much lower ceiling than an offense with Kurt Warner.

 

Trading away a king's ransom for one player can be a very viable strategy . . . as long as you're getting a king of a player in return. A Ricky Williams isn't worth this kind of price. But an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, or even a Phillip Rivers, would be.

[8-8 Forever?]

Everyone on this board also leaves out how simply awful his father was, yet not one person here can name a crappy QB whose son excelled in the NFL. Gale Gilbert's kid was good in HS but he flamed out in college. Good luck with Luck.

 

Daddy

Wow, Oliver Luck is his father? That is interesting... great research crayonz. Wow. Oliver Luck was terrible. Oh the post Earl Campbell, pre-Warren Moon days for the Oilers.. ugly

[The AntiFin]

The New York times performed a regression analysis to determine the relative value of the passing game versus a running game. Reducing your QB's interception percentage is just as important as improving your RB's yards per carry. Improving your QB's yards per attempt is three times as important as improving your RB's yards per attempt. Overall, the passing attack is four times as important as the running game.

 

I'd argue that the ceiling of your running game is determined at least as much by your offensive line as by your RB. Conversely, the ceiling of your passing game is dictated by your QB. An offense with Trent Dilfer lining up under center will have a much lower ceiling than an offense with Kurt Warner.

 

Trading away a king's ransom for one player can be a very viable strategy . . . as long as you're getting a king of a player in return. A Ricky Williams isn't worth this kind of price. But an Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, or even a Phillip Rivers, would be.

I don't disagree -- IF you're 100% sure that what you're getting is a "sure thing," which as we all know is impossible. For every Rodgers and Manning there's a Leaf and Russell. Rodgers was hardly a sure thing when GB drafted him. The knock on Peyton was that he never won big games (yes, he since has proved that wrong). Personal statistics aside, I (personally) don't believe Rivers is in the same league as the other two. I don't believe he'll ever win a championship even though he's got all the talent around him to do so.

 

I'd be interested to know how many on this board would be comfortable trading all of our 2012 picks for a young Phillip Rivers. Which reminds me -- Didn't Eli go #1 that year? Even better -- Who would trade all of our 2012 draft picks for a young Eli Manning?

[KD in CA]

he is a once in a decade QB.....can do it all.

 

 

make up the most ridiculous trade (the entire draft #1-7, three #1's, any player ) and i would gut my team and build around him.

 

But if you are Miami, Minnesota or Indy, you won't need to gut your team -- you'll just take him at #1 and be on your way, which is why I'll be rooting for the Dolphins every week.

 

The fun will start if the Rams or Panthers end up at #1, since presumably they will be selling to the highest bidder.

[zow2]

But if you are Miami, Minnesota or Indy, you won't need to gut your team -- you'll just take him at #1 and be on your way, which is why I'll be rooting for the Dolphins every week.

 

The fun will start if the Rams or Panthers end up at #1, since presumably they will be selling to the highest bidder.

 

I'm just hoping he ends up in the NFC. Can't handle another stud QB in the AFC East and Indy doesn't deserve that good fortune.

[Scraps]

I'm just hoping he ends up in the NFC. Can't handle another stud QB in the AFC East and Indy doesn't deserve that good fortune.

 

No where could he be under more pressure than if he ended up at Indy. Can you imagine the relationship between Manning and Luck. Could Indy possibly push Manning aside to make room for Luck like Green Bay did with Favre and Rodgers?

[Orton's Arm]

I don't disagree -- IF you're 100% sure that what you're getting is a "sure thing," which as we all know is impossible. For every Rodgers and Manning there's a Leaf and Russell. Rodgers was hardly a sure thing when GB drafted him. The knock on Peyton was that he never won big games (yes, he since has proved that wrong). Personal statistics aside, I (personally) don't believe Rivers is in the same league as the other two. I don't believe he'll ever win a championship even though he's got all the talent around him to do so.

 

I'd be interested to know how many on this board would be comfortable trading all of our 2012 picks for a young Phillip Rivers. Which reminds me -- Didn't Eli go #1 that year? Even better -- Who would trade all of our 2012 draft picks for a young Eli Manning?

I agree that Phillip Rivers is a step down from Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.

 

I agree that there's an element of risk involved when selecting a QB very early in the draft. But as you know, some prospects are riskier than others. Pre-draft, Peyton Manning was felt to be more of a sure thing than Ryan Leaf because of the former's proven track record. But Leaf supposedly had more "upside" due to his arm strength. I would not trade away a draft for a QB with physical potential and "upside," such as Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. But I would do so for a guy who was felt to be close to a sure thing, like Andrew Luck.

 

To expand on that point a little further, I'd like to take a look at the Bills' drafts starting in 2000, and ending in 2009. It would take too long to list every player from each of those drafts, so instead I'll just list the guys who amounted to something.

 

2000: nobody

2001: Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel

2002: nobody

2003: Terrence McGee

2004: Lee Evans

2005: nobody

2006: Kyle Williams

2007: nobody

2008: Demetrius Bell, Stevie Johnson

2009: Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd, Andy Levitre

 

If you had all ten of those guys in their prime, and if Green Bay offered you Aaron Rodgers in exchange for them, would you make that trade?

 

I suspect the above question could be argued either way. If a franchise QB like Rodgers is of equal or greater value than ten years of Bills' drafts, it stands to reason that it would be worthwhile to give up two or three years' worth of drafts for a player like Luck. Assuming, of course, that you're confident that Luck will be at or near the level of Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Not really related, but when Aaron Rodgers came out he had a very weak arm and threw like an awkward 8th grader.

 

Now he has maybe the strongest arm in the league and throws perfectly. Not sure who the GB QB coach is but he is a good one.

can we bring him here to work on Fitz arm.

[The AntiFin]

I agree that Phillip Rivers is a step down from Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers.

 

I agree that there's an element of risk involved when selecting a QB very early in the draft. But as you know, some prospects are riskier than others. Pre-draft, Peyton Manning was felt to be more of a sure thing than Ryan Leaf because of the former's proven track record. But Leaf supposedly had more "upside" due to his arm strength. I would not trade away a draft for a QB with physical potential and "upside," such as Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. But I would do so for a guy who was felt to be close to a sure thing, like Andrew Luck.

 

To expand on that point a little further, I'd like to take a look at the Bills' drafts starting in 2000, and ending in 2009. It would take too long to list every player from each of those drafts, so instead I'll just list the guys who amounted to something.

 

2000: nobody

2001: Nate Clements, Aaron Schobel

2002: nobody

2003: Terrence McGee

2004: Lee Evans

2005: nobody

2006: Kyle Williams

2007: nobody

2008: Demetrius Bell, Stevie Johnson

2009: Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd, Andy Levitre

 

If you had all ten of those guys in their prime, and if Green Bay offered you Aaron Rodgers in exchange for them, would you make that trade?

 

No way. Andrew Luck could be a god, but if he doesn't have the likes of Wood and Levitre protecting him or Lee and Stevie to throw to, he's just a tackling dummy. Montana, Kelly, Elway, Marino -- same deal. Dilfer showed us that a very mediocre QB can win a Super Bowl. I guess my "argument" is that I wouldn't sacrifice a team for one player. I wouldn't even sacrifice the Bills' 2011 draft for Rogers. Our defense is horrible despite some nice picks. Imagine what it would be like without them. Rodgers couldn't win that type of shootout week in and week out.

 

I have to say, though, I really like your style of posting. You research stats, make valid points and offer an interesting perspective.

[papazoid]

No where could he be under more pressure than if he ended up at Indy. Can you imagine the relationship between Manning and Luck. Could Indy possibly push Manning aside to make room for Luck like Green Bay did with Favre and Rodgers?

 

i'd go just the opposite....rodgers was the understudy for 4 years to favre.....how much pressure is that ?.....go to a crap team with no offensive line and start immediately ??...now thats pressure.

[NoSaint]

For the people bringing up leaf and Russell..... REALLY?!?!? Leaf was a huge headcase and Russell was lazy as anything. This was their MO in college. This wasn't shocking when it happened in the pros. If you can find the obvious knock on him that may come back to haunt who picks him, then I'll credit that. At this point if he misses it will likely be either due to an awful line, or poor coaching. As long as he's not totally shell shocked he should be a gimme to be better than those two. I think at this point it's not a matter of if he's good, but how good and will he land in a decent spot.

[ieatcrayonz]

For the people bringing up leaf and Russell..... REALLY?!?!? Leaf was a huge headcase and Russell was lazy as anything. This was their MO in college. This wasn't shocking when it happened in the pros. If you can find the obvious knock on him that may come back to haunt who picks him, then I'll credit that. At this point if he misses it will likely be either due to an awful line, or poor coaching. As long as he's not totally shell shocked he should be a gimme to be better than those two. I think at this point it's not a matter of if he's good, but how good and will he land in a decent spot.

I'm glad you at least agree about his dad sucking and that being a factor. For the record, I also agree with you that comparisons to Leaf and Russell are not valid. The best comparison is probably Gale Gilbert's kid and that does not bode well for Luck.