The Bills' method of winning is unsustainable.

[XXL Franchize]

I know I'm going to take some flak for this, and that there will be no shortage of people willing to write comments like "we're 4-1, be happy," or "a win is a win. It doesn't matter how you do it."

 

But a method of winning that will work over the long haul is fundamentally different from, and superior to, a method of winning that will soon fizzle out. The Bills' method of winning seems to be in the latter category.

 

Against the I-95 teams the Bills have played thus far (Patriots and Eagles), the Bills had nine takeaways and no giveaways. And yet, despite that insane +9 turnover differential, the Bills won both games by the skin of their teeth. This means that the Bills were significantly outplayed in the non-turnover aspects of the game, and needed all of those nine turnovers to eke out wins.

 

What happens when the Bills fail to achieve this kind of ridiculously one-sided turnover ratio?

 

Statistically, a good turnover ratio is highly correlated with wins, for obvious reasons. But teams' turnover ratios tend to change significantly from one season to the next. Two seasons ago that worked in the Bills' favor, as there were games Byrd won almost singlehandedly. His turnovers made the Bills' record better than its talent level would otherwise have dictated. Last season Byrd's turnovers dried up, and were no longer available to mask the team's overall lack of talent. That's why the Bills went 4-12. This season the turnovers are back again and (in combination with KC's implosion) are the main pillar of Buffalo's fast start. I do not believe that attaining turnovers at this ridiculous pace is sustainable, any more than the insane pace Byrd set during his rookie year was sustainable.

 

This should not be taken to mean that all is gloom and doom, or an implication that the team will never amount to anything. What it does mean is that Nix's rebuilding process is not as far along as the Bills' current record would seem to indicate. This team needs to play better in the non-turnover-related aspects of the game if its current success is to be sustainable. Maybe some of that can come from younger players already on the roster learning to improve. Byrd himself is a good example of this: he's playing better this year than last year. I also suspect the Bills will need at least one or two good drafts before they can truly become one of the NFL's top teams.

[8-8 Forever?]

A very intelligent post. I wholeheartedly agree. I compare this team with the 90-94 Bills team, and it is day and night. That team, whatever its flaws, had elite talent. I am not sure this team does, with the exception of maybe Fred Jackson, who deserves all the praise one can give. Maybe that makes this team more praiseworthy, and the season more enjoyable, but it is simply not sustainable. This may be a playoff team (I hope!!), but it sure is not a SB championship team.

 

The problem is that this temporary success will undermine the Bills' draft position, which will make it that much harder to draft elite talent. Detroit is benefitting from that now (we have largely squandered it in recent years). How happy would we be if Indianapolis goes 15-1, and drafts Andrew Luck, who leads them to another 15 years of playoff football? Here we are, eking out 4-12 season after 4-12 season, with a 10-5 season mixed in, and Indianapolis has one down year, and drafts a once in a decade QB that we will never see? Ugh.

Looks like that will happen. Bills miss out on the big QB draft year. Figures. I like Fitz, don't get me wrong. But if Gailey had Luck, really unbelievable success would follow IMO.

[Santana]

I'm a realist, I don't like to sugarcoat things just to appeal to others. Although I do believe there's a time and place and a way to make a point. It really upsets me to know that after Buffalo wins a game, people would have to find a way to deflate the win....ON A BILLS FORUM ONLY HOURS AFTER THEY WON!?! C'mon man it simply amazes me. Last year we were 0-5 at this point. I don't want to hear about how we can't sustain wins because of this or that after the game. I want to come here and rejoice with all of my fellow Bills fans. I feel that all of us deserve to speak our minds but we also deserve to just enjoy a victory at the same time. We are winning, and like everyone used to say about us when it was the other way around good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose. We are now that good team that finds ways to win.

[Orton's Arm]

Actually a high powered spread offense that doesn't give up the ball a lot and an opportunistic defense that produces a lot of turnovers but gives up a lot of total yardage were sustainable for many recent teams in the superbowl and some winners of it all. This is what the trend of this Bills team is. Cardinals, Saints, Colts (the year they won it against Chicago with the worst run defense in the league), Packers.

I'll point out some differences between this Bills team and the teams you mentioned.

 

1) Those teams had better defenses than the Bills. There are those in this thread who've made it sound like the Bills' defense allows lots of yards, but few points. That simply isn't the case. The Patriots scored over 30 points on the Bills' defense, the Eagles scored 24, the Bengals scored 23, and the Raiders scored 35. These numbers are not the hallmark of a defense that bends but doesn't break, or that gives up tons of yards without giving up the score. This defense will often give up yards and the score . . . except when causing a turnover.

 

2) Just to add to point 1, the Bills' defense is (as some have pointed out), ranked in the mid-20s. That low ranking cannot be attributed to rules changes, because the rules are the same for everyone. I'll grant that rules changes have made it easier to score than ever before. But this defense has serious problems even after taking those rules changes into account.

 

3) Some have argued (correctly) that the way to win in today's NFL is to pass and to stop the pass. The Bills seem unable to do these things as well as the top-tier teams in the league--at least WRT the non-turnover-related aspects of the game.

 

4) The teams you mentioned were quarterbacked by Warner, Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. I'd argue that every quarterback on that list deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Fame player.

 

Last season, Fitzpatrick was a clear upgrade over Edwards, but played well below the level of anyone on that list. Fitz will never be able to do the things those quarterbacks can do, because he isn't nearly an accurate a passer as they are.

 

Back in the '70s, it was often felt a quarterback had to have elite arm strength to be elite. During the '80s, Bill Walsh designed an offense tailored to Joe Montana's abilities, thereby proving that a quarterback could be great even with a mediocre arm. Montana made up for his lack of arm strength with elite accuracy and the ability to hit receivers in perfect stride.

 

During the first three games of the Bills' season, it appeared as though Gailey may have taken the next big step forward in offensive evolution. His quarterback--Fitzpatrick--was neither strong-armed nor overly accurate. But what Fitz did have was elite-level decision-making ability. The offense Gailey designed would spread defenses out. It called on Fitz to use that elite decision-making ability to exploit whatever defensive weaknesses this created. Fitz would use his "good enough" arm strength and accuracy and his elite decision-making to play at an elite level.

 

However, the offense hasn't done as well these last two games as it had the first three. Maybe these last two games were an anomaly. Fitz may have been playing hurt against the Bengals, for example. Or maybe defenses are starting to catch up to Gailey's offensive scheme. Or maybe the offense looked better than it really was during those first three games due to its opponents' defensive weaknesses. I expect to have a better feel for the offense by the end of the season. But as of right now, Fitz has yet to demonstrate he can play at or near the level of Warner, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers. This being the case, it would be unwise to assume the Bills will be able to use the same model those teams used to achieve the same level of success they achieved.

[The Senator]

I know I'm going to take some flak for this, and that there will be no shortage of people willing to write comments like "we're 4-1, be happy," or "a win is a win. It doesn't matter how you do it."

 

But a method of winning that will work over the long haul is fundamentally different from, and superior to, a method of winning that will soon fizzle out. The Bills' method of winning seems to be in the latter category.

 

Against the I-95 teams the Bills have played thus far (Patriots and Eagles), the Bills had nine takeaways and no giveaways. And yet, despite that insane +9 turnover differential, the Bills won both games by the skin of their teeth. This means that the Bills were significantly outplayed in the non-turnover aspects of the game, and needed all of those nine turnovers to eke out wins.

 

What happens when the Bills fail to achieve this kind of ridiculously one-sided turnover ratio?

 

Statistically, a good turnover ratio is highly correlated with wins, for obvious reasons. But teams' turnover ratios tend to change significantly from one season to the next. Two seasons ago that worked in the Bills' favor, as there were games Byrd won almost singlehandedly. His turnovers made the Bills' record better than its talent level would otherwise have dictated. Last season Byrd's turnovers dried up, and were no longer available to mask the team's overall lack of talent. That's why the Bills went 4-12. This season the turnovers are back again and (in combination with KC's implosion) are the main pillar of Buffalo's fast start. I do not believe that attaining turnovers at this ridiculous pace is sustainable, any more than the insane pace Byrd set during his rookie year was sustainable.

 

This should not be taken to mean that all is gloom and doom, or an implication that the team will never amount to anything. What it does mean is that Nix's rebuilding process is not as far along as the Bills' current record would seem to indicate. This team needs to play better in the non-turnover-related aspects of the game if its current success is to be sustainable. Maybe some of that can come from younger players already on the roster learning to improve. Byrd himself is a good example of this: he's playing better this year than last year. I also suspect the Bills will need at least one or two good drafts before they can truly become one of the NFL's top teams.

Abridged version.

[In-A-Gadda-Levitre]

Last season, Fitzpatrick was a clear upgrade over Edwards, but played well below the level of anyone on that list. Fitz will never be able to do the things those quarterbacks can do, because he isn't nearly an accurate a passer as they are.

 

Back in the '70s, it was often felt a quarterback had to have elite arm strength to be elite. During the '80s, Bill Walsh designed an offense tailored to Joe Montana's abilities, thereby proving that a quarterback could be great even with a mediocre arm. Montana made up for his lack of arm strength with elite accuracy and the ability to hit receivers in perfect stride.

 

During the first three games of the Bills' season, it appeared as though Gailey may have taken the next big step forward in offensive evolution. His quarterback--Fitzpatrick--was neither strong-armed nor overly accurate. But what Fitz did have was elite-level decision-making ability. The offense Gailey designed would spread defenses out. It called on Fitz to use that elite decision-making ability to exploit whatever defensive weaknesses this created. Fitz would use his "good enough" arm strength and accuracy and his elite decision-making to play at an elite level.

 

However, the offense hasn't done as well these last two games as it had the first three. Maybe these last two games were an anomaly. Fitz may have been playing hurt against the Bengals, for example. Or maybe defenses are starting to catch up to Gailey's offensive scheme. Or maybe the offense looked better than it really was during those first three games due to its opponents' defensive weaknesses. I expect to have a better feel for the offense by the end of the season. But as of right now, Fitz has yet to demonstrate he can play at or near the level of Warner, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers. This being the case, it would be unwise to assume the Bills will be able to use the same model those teams used to achieve the same level of success they achieved.

 

Well, according to ESPN's Total QBR, Fitz is currently at #5 in the league, right up there with the best in the business and ahead of some big names...

[Juror#8]

I'll point out some differences between this Bills team and the teams you mentioned.

 

1) Those teams had better defenses than the Bills. There are those in this thread who've made it sound like the Bills' defense allows lots of yards, but few points. That simply isn't the case. The Patriots scored over 30 points on the Bills' defense, the Eagles scored 24, the Bengals scored 23, and the Raiders scored 35. These numbers are not the hallmark of a defense that bends but doesn't break, or that gives up tons of yards without giving up the score. This defense will often give up yards and the score . . . except when causing a turnover.

 

2) Just to add to point 1, the Bills' defense is (as some have pointed out), ranked in the mid-20s. That low ranking cannot be attributed to rules changes, because the rules are the same for everyone. I'll grant that rules changes have made it easier to score than ever before. But this defense has serious problems even after taking those rules changes into account.

 

3) Some have argued (correctly) that the way to win in today's NFL is to pass and to stop the pass. The Bills seem unable to do these things as well as the top-tier teams in the league--at least WRT the non-turnover-related aspects of the game.

 

4) The teams you mentioned were quarterbacked by Warner, Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. I'd argue that every quarterback on that list deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Fame player.

 

Last season, Fitzpatrick was a clear upgrade over Edwards, but played well below the level of anyone on that list. Fitz will never be able to do the things those quarterbacks can do, because he isn't nearly an accurate a passer as they are.

 

Back in the '70s, it was often felt a quarterback had to have elite arm strength to be elite. During the '80s, Bill Walsh designed an offense tailored to Joe Montana's abilities, thereby proving that a quarterback could be great even with a mediocre arm. Montana made up for his lack of arm strength with elite accuracy and the ability to hit receivers in perfect stride.

 

During the first three games of the Bills' season, it appeared as though Gailey may have taken the next big step forward in offensive evolution. His quarterback--Fitzpatrick--was neither strong-armed nor overly accurate. But what Fitz did have was elite-level decision-making ability. The offense Gailey designed would spread defenses out. It called on Fitz to use that elite decision-making ability to exploit whatever defensive weaknesses this created. Fitz would use his "good enough" arm strength and accuracy and his elite decision-making to play at an elite level.

 

However, the offense hasn't done as well these last two games as it had the first three. Maybe these last two games were an anomaly. Fitz may have been playing hurt against the Bengals, for example. Or maybe defenses are starting to catch up to Gailey's offensive scheme. Or maybe the offense looked better than it really was during those first three games due to its opponents' defensive weaknesses. I expect to have a better feel for the offense by the end of the season. But as of right now, Fitz has yet to demonstrate he can play at or near the level of Warner, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers. This being the case, it would be unwise to assume the Bills will be able to use the same model those teams used to achieve the same level of success they achieved.

 

Any thoughts on post #65? Particularly interested in knowing your thoughts on the measurable defensive skill sets and how you differentiate them.

[buffalo_bills]

I'm a realist, I don't like to sugarcoat things just to appeal to others. Although I do believe there's a time and place and a way to make a point. It really upsets me to know that after Buffalo wins a game, people would have to find a way to deflate the win....ON A BILLS FORUM ONLY HOURS AFTER THEY WON!?! C'mon man it simply amazes me. Last year we were 0-5 at this point. I don't want to hear about how we can't sustain wins because of this or that after the game. I want to come here and rejoice with all of my fellow Bills fans. I feel that all of us deserve to speak our minds but we also deserve to just enjoy a victory at the same time. We are winning, and like everyone used to say about us when it was the other way around good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose. We are now that good team that finds ways to win.

Amen!

[EasternOHBillsFan]

I'm a realist, I don't like to sugarcoat things just to appeal to others. Although I do believe there's a time and place and a way to make a point. It really upsets me to know that after Buffalo wins a game, people would have to find a way to deflate the win....ON A BILLS FORUM ONLY HOURS AFTER THEY WON!?! C'mon man it simply amazes me. Last year we were 0-5 at this point. I don't want to hear about how we can't sustain wins because of this or that after the game. I want to come here and rejoice with all of my fellow Bills fans. I feel that all of us deserve to speak our minds but we also deserve to just enjoy a victory at the same time. We are winning, and like everyone used to say about us when it was the other way around good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose. We are now that good team that finds ways to win.

 

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to read threads critical of the game!!!!

[sac bills]

Agreed! Who gives a crap how we got here - we're 4-1 and have beaten two (supposed) Super Bowl contenders. It's been a blast!!

[The Senator]

You'd rather enjoy a win - rather than immediately opine that any Bills success is merely tentative and entirely spurious???

 

 

 

I refuse to do either - there's another game to prepare for...

 

 

The Official Eli Manning Sucks Blog

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills 43

New Jersey Giants 0

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

18 and 1 baby!!!!!

[Astrojanitor]

We've been burned by the fast start before. I think at this point most of us are trying to figure out if we have an actual good team or the 08 Bills. Or 09 Broncos. Not a perfect team, so we discuss the areas of concern. Plus it's a football discussion board, what else are we going to talk about? You want it to just become a giant circle jerk because our team has managed to put together some wins?

[Santana]

No one puts a gun to your head and forces you to read threads critical of the game!!!!

 

 

You're right!,but as a member I have the right to reply to any post that I want to if i'm not bashing or demoralizing their theories. Just like no one put a gun to your head and made you reply to this post. I'm not out to make enemies I'm just trying to be positive about us having a good start to the season when no one gave them a chance (myself at times included)and everyone from upstate NY and worldwide has their right to enjoy it for at least 24hrs, that's all!!

 

We've been burned by the fast start before. I think at this point most of us are trying to figure out if we have an actual good team or the 08 Bills. Or 09 Broncos. Not a perfect team, so we discuss the areas of concern. Plus it's a football discussion board, what else are we going to talk about? You want it to just become a giant circle jerk because our team has managed to put together some wins?

 

I understand that trust me, like I said i'm a realist when it comes to expectations. I'm not telling anyone not to post or reply or whatever all I'm saying is that we should be able to just enjoy it for a little bit for a day. So if that's your definition of a "circle jerk" then yeah I guess so. Thanks for your analogy on circle jerking though, it was awesome.

[wnyBacker]

Come on that's weak. We obvioulsly wont be getting five picks every game and our defense won't dominate everyone, BUT our offense is still extremely effective and can put up a lot of points.

 

That alone helps to "sustain"wins.

[Mr. WEO]

I'm a realist, I don't like to sugarcoat things just to appeal to others. Although I do believe there's a time and place and a way to make a point. It really upsets me to know that after Buffalo wins a game, people would have to find a way to deflate the win....ON A BILLS FORUM ONLY HOURS AFTER THEY WON!?! C'mon man it simply amazes me. Last year we were 0-5 at this point. I don't want to hear about how we can't sustain wins because of this or that after the game. I want to come here and rejoice with all of my fellow Bills fans. I feel that all of us deserve to speak our minds but we also deserve to just enjoy a victory at the same time. We are winning, and like everyone used to say about us when it was the other way around good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose. We are now that good team that finds ways to win.

 

 

Then do so.

 

But if you can't help yourself, maybe you can add to a thread (look down--it's right there) that exists instead of starting the same exact topic.

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/136763-are-you-kidding-me/

[n3wyork13]

Someone is always bitchin or moaning on here AFTER we get a win.....over anaylzing all the stats on why we can keep winning or we got lucky that we won...WE WON WHO CARES! Your not getting paid by espn to statalize everything so stop and just enjoy the W!

[TH3]

Here is the way I kind of see it. You can win with a top rated offense and or defense that grinds out statistics - maybe say like old Bill Parsells teams or the Jets. Grind it out, let your statistically superior team have its results regress to the mean. You can get beat once in a while but after 16 games....you have won 10 to 12 of them.

 

The other way to do is skip the stats and MAKE PLAYS. The Pats have been living on this for the last 8 years. Bills are statistically almost equal to the Pats - and in the same way have a 4-1 winning record - why? Because both teams MAKE BIG important plays. The Bills have been making plays on both sides of the ball all year long - big offensive and big defensive plays that leap frog the stats.

 

I do beleive that the league has changed since the Parcells days and the factor of winning has changed from grinding out stats - to that of having a team that makes plays. The question the thread starter posited - is this 4-1 record a statistic anomoly?

 

I don't think so - I think our coaching staff and other staffs (New England) have teams and game plans that enables the team to MAKE PLAYS.

 

Unsustainable? Good question - after 16 games we will know!

[Just in Atlanta]

Abridged version.

You are a fine editor.

[Santana]

Then do so.

 

But if you can't help yourself, maybe you can add to a thread (look down--it's right there) that exists instead of starting the same exact topic.

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/136763-are-you-kidding-me/

 

 

I am. I didn't want to reply to the topic, I wanted to make my own topic taking an opposing view so I did. (Look up--it's right there).

 

You'd rather enjoy a win - rather than immediately opine that any Bills success is merely tentative and entirely spurious???

 

 

 

I refuse to do either - there's another game to prepare for...

 

 

The Official Eli Manning Sucks Blog

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills 43

New Jersey Giants 0

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

18 and 1 baby!!!!!

 

 

hahaha I like that man!

[gravytrain]

I'm a realist, I don't like to sugarcoat things just to appeal to others. Although I do believe there's a time and place and a way to make a point. It really upsets me to know that after Buffalo wins a game, people would have to find a way to deflate the win....ON A BILLS FORUM ONLY HOURS AFTER THEY WON!?! C'mon man it simply amazes me. Last year we were 0-5 at this point. I don't want to hear about how we can't sustain wins because of this or that after the game. I want to come here and rejoice with all of my fellow Bills fans. I feel that all of us deserve to speak our minds but we also deserve to just enjoy a victory at the same time. We are winning, and like everyone used to say about us when it was the other way around good teams find ways to win, bad teams find ways to lose. We are now that good team that finds ways to win.

 

 

 

here. here.