The Bills' method of winning is unsustainable.

[billsfan1959]

Michael Vick didn't need to throw those two balls into coverage, and Avant fumbled TWICE, which is rare for any receiver. The Patriots have been masterful at taking what we did first meeting and neutering us the second. Teams in the NFL adjust to what their opponent is doing, and therefore when teams don't make the really bad throw or hold onto the ball, then our defense will be up against it.

 

All I can say is games 6-16 and beyond (?) will tell the tale.

 

 

 

What happened in the Cincinnati game when a rookie QB marched the ball down the field?

 

Sometimes they came up big when needed... and if you've been playing attention, our turnovers have stemmed not from pressure, but a distinct plan to jump up and bat balls down and to try and force fumbles. Pressure on the opposing QB has been few and far between...

 

Michael Vick threw two interceptions because of pressure and Avant didn't fumble the ball twice...it was stripped from him...twice. I'd say that is "forcing" turnovers

[T master]

I know I'm going to take some flak for this, and that there will be no shortage of people willing to write comments like "we're 4-1, be happy," or "a win is a win. It doesn't matter how you do it."

 

But a method of winning that will work over the long haul is fundamentally different from, and superior to, a method of winning that will soon fizzle out. The Bills' method of winning seems to be in the latter category.

 

Against the I-95 teams the Bills have played thus far (Patriots and Eagles), the Bills had nine takeaways and no giveaways. And yet, despite that insane +9 turnover differential, the Bills won both games by the skin of their teeth. This means that the Bills were significantly outplayed in the non-turnover aspects of the game, and needed all of those nine turnovers to eke out wins.

 

What happens when the Bills fail to achieve this kind of ridiculously one-sided turnover ratio?

 

Statistically, a good turnover ratio is highly correlated with wins, for obvious reasons. But teams' turnover ratios tend to change significantly from one season to the next. Two seasons ago that worked in the Bills' favor, as there were games Byrd won almost singlehandedly. His turnovers made the Bills' record better than its talent level would otherwise have dictated. Last season Byrd's turnovers dried up, and were no longer available to mask the team's overall lack of talent. That's why the Bills went 4-12. This season the turnovers are back again and (in combination with KC's implosion) are the main pillar of Buffalo's fast start. I do not believe that attaining turnovers at this ridiculous pace is sustainable, any more than the insane pace Byrd set during his rookie year was sustainable.

 

This should not be taken to mean that all is gloom and doom, or an implication that the team will never amount to anything. What it does mean is that Nix's rebuilding process is not as far along as the Bills' current record would seem to indicate. This team needs to play better in the non-turnover-related aspects of the game if its current success is to be sustainable. Maybe some of that can come from younger players already on the roster learning to improve. Byrd himself is a good example of this: he's playing better this year than last year. I also suspect the Bills will need at least one or two good drafts before they can truly become one of the NFL's top teams.

 

I wrote a post earlier on this subject but in a different format , the reason why last year the turn overs weren't there is because of the lack of pressure from our defensive line . The year before we had Schobel , Williams , Kelsay & a few others to at least worry about so it was harder to stop all of the

players .

 

Schobel left no outside pressure concentrate more on the other folks Kelsay & others which left only one real threat Williams which = no interceptions !

 

This year enter Dareus , Merriman , Sheppard , Batten + Moats from last year & the pressure is turned up resulting in more interceptions & the only way this will go away is if these folks are hurt & not playing .

 

If you can't see that along with the upgrade in talent + pressure put on opposing QB's = more interceptions you need to stop posting cause your obviously not paying attention , or a really slow learner , or just not seeing the obvious but it's something !!!

[timba]

There are three other teams in our division and then 12 more in the conference. Odds are ties will be out of the division and you conveniently ignored that there will be no common NFC games in that scenario rendering it a mute point in more than 75% of ties.

 

Look, it is no big deal really, it is what it is. There is no reason for people in denial or upset to ignore facts. As wins go, the Eagles win is a bad one.

 

If you get a choice, you should choose Division wins and then Conference wins. There isn't much to argue on that. However, there is also reality where you don't get to choose your wins. A win to Philadelphia doesn't guarantee a loss to an AFC team later, just as a loss to Philadelphia doesn't guarantee an AFC win later on.

 

AFC win > NFC win

NFC win > loss

[VanCity]

I understand the OP's sentiment, but I see a lot of opportunity for this defense to improve, which is our main issue as i see it. The players are there and the system has evolved to work to most of their strengths. Kelsay was having a , rather surprisingly IMHO, very good season and just sat last week. Upon his return and coupled with the maturation of Carrington, Batten, Moats, and Dareus (and the slight possibility of an effective Troup), we have a very nice front 7 that got consistent pressure on Vick and slowed down the running game, causing the TO's to happen. George Edwards is learning on the job and has Wanny in his ear teaching him the nuances of being a good D-Coordinator. Have some faith and enjoy what has happened.

Edited October 11, 2011 by VanCity

[Ozymandius]

It's true, the Bills could collapse. I think everyone here knows in the back of our minds that it's possible.

 

But my advice would be to just enjoy the ride until that happens.

 

This franchise hasn't been 4-1 very often in its history and obviously not very often in recent history. Who knows when we'll get to experience this kind of start again? Maybe in 2012 they begin the season 1-4.

Edited October 11, 2011 by Ozymandius

[Orton's Arm]

Here's the thing, and I say this with the greatest sincerity, you're not a player or a coach. None of us are. The reality is, whether or not we get too up or too down has absolutely zero impact on whether or not the Buffalo Bills win on Sunday.

 

Now, I know you know this because I consider you to be a smart poster who actually knows the game. So I don't say that with any semblance of disrespect. Now, we could sit here and debate your points -- of which you raise several good ones. I could counter with my belief that measuring the effectiveness of a defense based on yards is caveman football. The NFL ranking should be by points, not yards. The game has gotten too easy to score and it's unfair to hold current defenses (across the league, not just here) to past statistical standards because the NFL has never, ever been as much of a passing and scoring league as it's become almost overnight. It's not that defenses haven't caught up to the spread as it is that the rules have changed to make it almost impossible to consistently stop the passing game. Of course you could rightfully counter that the Bills give up a lot of points as well as yards which would bring you back to your original point.

 

But that brings me to my question. And again, I am curious about the answer to this because I honestly do not understand the mentality and I have very much been a "realist" in the past few seasons. So here it is:

 

Why bother to bring this up now?

 

If you're right (you may well be; the honest truth is we're all just guessing here) and the Bills do crash back to earth at some point this season or next, then shouldn't you just enjoy the good parts of the ride while they're here? After all, you yourself are saying that we're going to be back in the cellar at some point in the very near future.

 

So what does this post accomplish? Is it just the need to say you were right later on if it happens? Or is it something else? The Bills fate in the 2011 season is not going to change if you post this. It wouldn't change if you didn't post it either. Again, I'm not saying you should just blindly believe in sunshine and rainbows -- if you think it's a mirage you have every right to express your opinion. And you could be right.

 

But you could also be wrong.

 

So what do you gain from making this post now? If you're right, you get some satisfaction from being the smartest guy in the room ... who roots for a team that never wins. Plus you miss out on actually enjoying the brief flickers of success your chosen team actually earns -- even if it is by hook or by crook.

 

Again, it's not that you're not allowed to discuss your opinions on these matters. And this is certainly the place to do so. It's just the timing of it I question. What's the rush to be out in front of a curve that you're smart enough to know you can't predict?

 

What's the point of being a fan if you forget to enjoy the successes?

In answer to your question why bring this up now, I'll respond with the following. Over the last ten or more years, Bills fans (including me) have been subjected to false hopes, followed by disappointments. At least for me, the pain of learning that one's hopes were hollow outweighs the initial feeling of excitement which had been created. If someone says "Tom Donahoe," do fans remember the initial excitement most of us felt when we thought we were getting a real football guy from Pittsburgh? Or do they remember the utter futility and worthlessness of his regime? Along the same vein, throwing Drew Bledsoe's name around is more likely to cause fans to remember the mediocrity of his last 2.5 seasons than the greatness of his first eight games.

 

If people here look at the Bills' record and the quality of some of the teams they've beaten, some might conclude that the Bills are a top-5 team. That impression would be mistaken. The Bills are probably a middle of the pack team, at least right now. That might change as some of their younger players come into their own.

 

Let's say you'd been told that $80,000 had been set aside in an escrow account for you. In one year's time you'd be allowed to use that money to buy a new car. You're shown the legal papers, and everything is confirmed to your and your lawyer's satisfaction. Over the course of that year you spend a lot of time thinking about, reading about, and test driving $80,000 cars. But then, the day before the funds were scheduled to be released to you, you get a phone call. Something fell through. Now, only $30,000 will be available for your new car. Most people in this situation would feel bitterness or disappointment over the $80,000 car they didn't receive. Yes, they'd also feel grateful for the $30,000 car they were given. But the gratitude might be less than the disappointment.

 

If, on the other hand, the person had expected a $30,000 car all along, the feeling of gratitude upon receiving the car would be unalloyed with either bitterness or disappointment. This is why realistic expectations are better than false hopes.

Edited October 12, 2011 by Edwards' Arm

[Malazan]

If, on the other hand, the person had expected a $30,000 car all along, the feeling of gratitude upon receiving the car would be unalloyed with either bitterness or disappointment. This is why realistic expectations are better than false hopes.

 

Try Xanax and a therapist instead of advil and TBD

[Thurman#1]

We intercepted Brady four times and Vick four times. It looks more like a trend than an aberration. I will take a 489 yard 5 turnover game every single time.

 

 

Me, too. But as the OP pointed out, that pace is unsustainable. When's the last team that averaged 5 INTs a game for the season?

 

OK, four?

 

Three?

 

Surely there must be someone averaging two per game? Well, I only checked back to 2005, but no, there's not. So four or five a game is fairly freakish, and we're unlikely to even come close to continuing at our current pace of 2.4 per game. So, understanding that, how will we do when they drop off?

 

That's the question.

[thewildrabbit]

I really don't get this post. The Bills' defense was horrible last year. They took steps to make it better; however, it is hard to turn something so bad into something good overnight. It typically takes some time. Consequently, we had a pretty good idea that the defense was still going to have problems this year. That is one of the reasons why most people on this board and elsewhere predicted this team would be fortunate to win 5 or 6 games at best this year (and many predicted the team to finish first in the 2012 Luck sweepstakes). Now, here we sit, five games into the season, with the team 4 -1, and some people are predicting the team will not be able to sustain winning with their defense. The defense is what it is. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But, they have found a way to compensate for their defensive shortcomings by forcing turnovers and making big defensive plays at key moments - and by playing very good football on the offensive side of the ball.

 

They weren't supposed to beat the Raiders because of their vaunted running game...but they did. They weren't supposed to beat the Patriots because of their unstoppable passing game...but they did. They weren't supposed to beat a desperate, Eagles team that, offensively, can be as diverse and potent as any team in the game...but they did. In fact, this team has found a way to win 4 out of 5 games with this defense. What more can you ask for?

Here is the reason for this post!

 

 

The Bills have recently been down the 4-1 road before, in 2008 in fact! All it took was one missed blocking assignment and a severe concussion on the QB to ruin that team for the 08 season. The effects of that concussion didn't manifest itself right away, but sometimes that's how they work. Will this Bills team go down that same road as that 8 team and tank the season? Good Lord I hope not because it looks like the Bills have finally found their QB.

 

Guys, get a freaking grip on reality! This Bills defense is bad, how bad you ask? Currently 30th in the league bad, 29th in rushing bad, 26th in passing bad. They have no real pass rusher except Darius as Kyle Williams was blanked in Sundays game, no pressures, no tackles, no assists. Is he injured? George Wilson, Marcel Darius and Nick Barnett all made the defense look good. Still the defense allowed 489 yards to Vick & co. While the Bills offense was able to gain 331 yards, most of that was all Fred Jackson, 111 yards rushing, 85 receiving ...almost 200 yards of offense just from Freddy!

 

The biggest reason the Bills were so successful on offense was because the HC of the Eagles took the O line coach and turned him into the DC this year, what a completely boneheaded move. The Bills spread offense forced the Eagles into a nickle package which the Bills exploited beautifully, the Eagles thought they could control FJ with just two LB's, needless to say the Eagles team can't tackle, isn't disciplined and shouldn't be playing a cover scheme with Nnamdi Asomugha...the freaking morons!!

 

To the people that think turnovers aren't pure luck, you guys are delusional. Every team in the NFL teaches their players to try and strip the ball, intercept the ball, recover fumbles, every team! Just wait and watch what happens when the Bills fail to get turnovers, it won't be pretty! The Buffalo Bills are currently the #1 team in the NFL in turnover ratio! (Now this statistic might just be the only unsustainable) not the Steelers, not the Packers, not the Patriots. Do the Bills have a defense filled with pro bowlers? well maybe just one right now, Mr everywhere!

 

 

Currently Buffalo is11th in total offense. They are 13th in passing offense and 4th in rushing offense. Needless to say as well as Fitzscreamy is playing, Fred Jackson is playing almost on another level and carrying this team. Wanna know an interesting fact? Fitzscreamy attempted only 3 passes over 10 yards against the Eagles! Its that spread offense and Fitz's ability to get the ball to the open receiver in 3 seconds that negates most pass rush against him. If you noticed in both the Bengals & Eagles game that when the Bills utilized a closed formation and tried to run and throw they were less successful.

 

Both the Buffalo offense and defense can be exploited, the defense by a team with a power running game, the offense by stacking the box and jamming-knocking the receivers out of their routes. Thus causing Fitz to hold the ball longer, and attempt deeper passes. which he tried to do against Cincy, the result was he hurried many passes and they went wild. Probably why Marvin Lewis guaranteed a win against Buffalo and was able to pull it out with a rookie QB behind center. The Raiders this year fielded a brand new HC, new OC, new DC. The Patriots have the worst defense in the league and the best offense. Buffalo managed to get 4 INT's on Brady, a guy who only threw 4 INT's in all of last season! KC was a horridly bad team at the start of the year.

 

 

The Bills have had some lucky breaks go their way so far this year (about time) and hopefully it will continue and the Bills keep winning. So unsustainable? Maybe yes, maybe no! It all depends on how that oblong spheroid bounces and how good their opponents play them. The Bills are currently tied in the AFC East with the Patriots and look to be better then the Jets and Dolphins. But the Bills still face the, 3-2 @ NY Giants, 3-1 Redskins up north, 2-2 @ Cowboys, 3-2 Titans, 4-1 @ Chargers, 4-1 @ Patriots.

[BuffOrange]

In answer to your question why bring this up now, I'll respond with the following. Over the last ten or more years, Bills fans (including me) have been subjected to false hopes, followed by disappointments. At least for me, the pain of learning that one's hopes were hollow outweighs the initial feeling of excitement which had been created. If someone says "Tom Donahoe," do fans remember the initial excitement most of us felt when we thought we were getting a real football guy from Pittsburgh? Or do they remember the utter futility and worthlessness of his regime? Along the same vein, throwing Drew Bledsoe's name around is more likely to cause fans to remember the mediocrity of his last 2.5 seasons than the greatness of his first eight games.

 

If people here look at the Bills' record and the quality of some of the teams they've beaten, some might conclude that the Bills are a top-5 team. That impression would be mistaken. The Bills are probably a middle of the pack team, at least right now. That might change as some of their younger players come into their own.

 

Let's say you'd been told that $80,000 had been set aside in an escrow account for you. In one year's time you'd be allowed to use that money to buy a new car. You're shown the legal papers, and everything is confirmed to your and your lawyer's satisfaction. Over the course of that year you spend a lot of time thinking about, reading about, and test driving $80,000 cars. But then, the day before the funds were scheduled to be released to you, you get a phone call. Something fell through. Now, only $30,000 will be available for your new car. Most people in this situation would feel bitterness or disappointment over the $80,000 car they didn't receive. Yes, they'd also feel grateful for the $30,000 car they were given. But the gratitude might be less than the disappointment.

 

If, on the other hand, the person had expected a $30,000 car all along, the feeling of gratitude upon receiving the car would be unalloyed with either bitterness or disappointment. This is why realistic expectations are better than false hopes.

 

It seems like most fans either feel like you do, or are writing angry emails to the Colin Cowherds of the world who don't give us enough respect. I don't know man, you often have to find that happy medium in life. That's where I am, and I feel like I'm in a good place right now with the Bills.

 

I agree with a lot of what you're saying about the takeaways - they're not sustainable and anyone who thinks they are is kidding themselves. I also agree with most of what Cowherd has said. Homefield may have made the difference in 3 of our wins so far. How many games would we win if we played the 3game road trip the Jets just did? Very possibly zero. Another thing nobody is talking about is the offense has very quietly put up 13 and 24 points the last two weeks - not a cause for panic, but not exactly fireworks either. I hope Gailey can stay one step ahead of these defenses...

 

The bottom line right now is that despite some of these red flags, we've put ourselves in a position at 4-1, where we can "come down to earth" a bit and still get to the playoffs, which is really all anyone is realistically hoping for this year. Sweep Miami, beat Denver, Tennessee, split with the Jets, get 1 of the Giants/Skins games - there's 10 wins. This team can do that I think without getting crazy lucky bounces; they just need to avoid the collapsing like a house of cards '08 replay.

The Jets I think are one of the biggest keys - a 2game lead over them can evaporate quickly if we lose that 1st game against them - suddenly it's a 1game lead and we have to beat them at their place or else lose the tiebreaker. We need to bury them here - I hope the crowd is as loud as ever for that game.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Michael Vick didn't need to throw those two balls into coverage, and Avant fumbled TWICE, which is rare for any receiver. The Patriots have been masterful at taking what we did first meeting and neutering us the second. Teams in the NFL adjust to what their opponent is doing, and therefore when teams don't make the really bad throw or hold onto the ball, then our defense will be up against it.

 

All I can say is games 6-16 and beyond (?) will tell the tale.

 

What happened in the Cincinnati game when a rookie QB marched the ball down the field?

 

Sometimes they came up big when needed... and if you've been playing attention, our turnovers have stemmed not from pressure, but a distinct plan to jump up and bat balls down and to try and force fumbles. Pressure on the opposing QB has been few and far between...

 

Michael Vick threw two interceptions because of pressure and Avant didn't fumble the ball twice...it was stripped from him...twice. I'd say that is "forcing" turnovers

 

No pressure on the QB. Turnovers dried up. Defense giving up tons of yards. Cincinnati game all over again.

 

I hope this finally puts to rest this idea that as long as we win everything is peaches and cream and rainbows. We're getting closer to a really good team status, but the denial of our flaws has to end and realism sets in. I am much more optimistic about the Redskins game now and the Jets game, but when we play the Cowboys and Chargers expect more of what happened against the Giants.

Edited October 17, 2011 by BmoreBills

[BuffOrange]

No pressure on the QB. Turnovers dried up. Defense giving up tons of yards. Cincinnati game all over again.

 

I hope this finally puts to rest this idea that as long as we win everything is peaches and cream and rainbows. We're getting closer to a really good team status, but the denial of our flaws has to end and realism sets in. I am much more optimistic about the Redskins game now and the Jets game, but when we play the Cowboys and Chargers expect more of what happened against the Giants.

 

If the turnovers were even yesterday, we win. While getting 4 takeaways per game is obviously unsustainable, I don't think this loss does much to 'prove' we need all kinds of fortunate bounces to beat most teams.

 

I happen to think the Cowboys & Chargers are better than the Giants. Seriously, if the Giants & Cowboys swapped schedules so far NYG might be 1-4 and Dallas 5-1. If I'm wrong then we're in great shape. But I think most of us hoping for 10 wins have those games chalked up as losses anyway.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

If the turnovers were even yesterday, we win. While getting 4 takeaways per game is obviously unsustainable, I don't think this loss does much to 'prove' we need all kinds of fortunate bounces to beat most teams.

 

I happen to think the Cowboys & Chargers are better than the Giants. Seriously, if the Giants & Cowboys swapped schedules so far NYG might be 1-4 and Dallas 5-1. If I'm wrong then we're in great shape. But I think most of us hoping for 10 wins have those games chalked up as losses anyway.

 

What I'm saying is that turnovers for this team are inconsequential- what matters is shoring up our defense. In either case, + or - in differential, we're in every single game and our defense MUST step up and finish.

 

I'm hoping for a winning season and optimism going into 2012.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Now the negative nancies are unhappy with the W/L record so its all about winning with the proper "style points".

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Now the negative nancies are unhappy with the W/L record so its all about winning with the proper "style points".

 

Anyone with a minute enough of sense in their brain knows that teams who give up 400+ yards a game can't possibly go very far in the postseason. Your idea of negative isn't very realistic- how many times can our defense fail us before something rattles around in your head that brings you to the realization that this year is merely a prelude to defensive improvement and is not a season where we go deep into the playoffs? Enjoy the ride, but be realistic, please.

[BringBackFlutie]

Anyone with a minute enough of sense in their brain knows that teams who give up 400+ yards a game can't possibly go very far in the postseason. Your idea of negative isn't very realistic- how many times can our defense fail us before something rattles around in your head that brings you to the realization that this year is merely a prelude to defensive improvement and is not a season where we go deep into the playoffs? Enjoy the ride, but be realistic, please.

 

I fully agree with you- but I'm highly disappointed because we put SO much into this defense in the off-season and see no improvements. On the other hand, our new talent really does come up with good plays, so perhaps George Edwards truly is horrible. Again, I'm not looking forward to two straight years of defensive improvement. Unless the offensive talent level magically rises (not saying they aren't good, but could use improvement, or at least enough investment to keep them together), that's a poor rebuild.

[2003Contenders]

A few thoughts...

 

1. There is no denying that the defense is bad. They can't rush the passer, stopping the run remains an issue -- and DBs have trouble covering when the opposing QB has all day waiting for routes to develop.

 

2. The realization of the above truth places unnecessary stress on an offense that has been pretty good. It is to the point, where the lack of faith in the defense has led to some questionable (and overly reckless) offensive play calling at then end of football games.

 

3. With that said, the defense did NOT force any turnovers against the Giants -- and as bad as the defense played, if Fitz doesn't toss those 2 INTs (or at least one of them), the Bills probably beat a pretty good Giants team on the road.

 

4. The OP's comments about the method of winning by HAVING to rely on turnovers may be valid. However, it should be pointed out that no team in this league (not even the undefeated Packers) is a complete package. Thus, it will not take a pristine performance to win each week. Yesterday the Bills D (minus 3 veteran starters) recorded no sacks, no turnovers, allowed over 400 yards, committed a number of VERY costly PI penalties -- and still darn near beat a good Giants team on the road.

[Adam]

If the wins don't mean we are all set, then the losses don't mean we are hopeless either. You can't have it both ways.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

If the wins don't mean we are all set, then the losses don't mean we are hopeless either. You can't have it both ways.

 

Actually you can, it is called game analysis with a realistic look at what happened. Average teams will tease you with games of awesomeness only to let you down with games where they lay eggs. Teams go 3-1, 4-1, 4-2 all the time and miss the playoffs, or nose dive, or struggle midway through only to come roaring back to life.

 

As i said before, our next big test is not the Giants, not the Redskins, but the JETS. You cannot possibly have any hope to make the playoffs without beating them, and unfortunately their strength matches up poorly with our weakness as of NOW. If we can get Aaron Williams out there and make changes within the secondary, we could very well fix what ails us.

[Orton's Arm]

If the wins don't mean we are all set, then the losses don't mean we are hopeless either. You can't have it both ways.

I'll go along with this. The Bills had a -2 turnover differential against the Giants, and yet came very close to winning. That means there were both positives and negatives. I also agree with BmoreBills' comment about the need for game analysis, and his implication that the Bills are still an average team which will tease you at times.

 

I'd put the defense in the negative category: it's one of the worst in the league in terms of yards. It also does a lousy job of preventing points from being scored. Until recently it made up for that with tons of turnovers. But as has been pointed out in this thread, that pace of turnover generation was unsustainable, and was not sustained against the Giants.

 

On the credit side of the ledger I'd put anything RB-related, the Bills' WR corps (more or less), the TE and FB, and (sort of) Fitz. Also the OL isn't as bad as many feared it would be. While Fitz is a good fit for what Gailey wants to do with the Bills' offense, those who feel he's at or near the level of Rodgers, Brees, or other top tier QBs are badly mistaken.

 

The offense needs a first round QB and a second round OL to take the next step forward. In order to become decent, the defense probably needs another defense-oriented draft. Between offense and defense, the Bills are probably two drafts away from becoming a serious threat to go to the Super Bowl. (This assumes that everything goes well, and--most importantly--that they're able to obtain a franchise QB in the next two drafts.) In the meantime, the Bills will still be an entertaining team to watch, and will fight hard every week. I intend to enjoy the ride, but not to expect too much.