nodnarb Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 ...in terms of coaching and strategy...this is also what sells tickets, a point not lost on the NFL... "In other football news, the Patriots have the league's leading offense, averaging an Arena League-like 507 yards per game. Last year, New England was the NFL's highest-scoring team. In 2007, the Patriots set the NFL record for points in a season. Yet Bill Belichick cut his teeth as a defensive zealot. His big break was as defensive coordinator for the Bill Parcells Super Bowl Giants, a grind-it-out defensive team. As head coach in Cleveland, Belichick emphasized defense. Now he's an offensive wizard, while the Patriots rank last in the NFL in defense. Impostor, tell me where the real Bill Belichick is and what you've done with him! The New England coach is nothing if not analytical, and realized -- especially with the past decade of rule changes intended to favor offense -- that defense-oriented teams sometimes win but high-scoring teams almost always win. There are coaches who strategize to come out ahead in a low-scoring defensive struggle. For the past five years, Belichick has been strategizing to spin the scoreboard. The Patriots under Belichick are now 62-3 when scoring at least 30 points. A high-scoring team almost always wins, so Belichick has undergone a religious conversion, from defense to offense. For five seasons, Belichick has been using a shotgun-spread offense, mostly from the no-huddle, because recent experience shows this puts up the most points. Against a no-huddle offense, the defense can't substitute, and since playing defensive line is more tiring than playing offensive line, in the second half, the Patriots' O-line takes over. Despite 163 pass attempts, New England has allowed just four sacks -- a tired, disorganized opposition is a reason. And Belichick has been studying the playbooks of great offensive teams of the past, including Bill Walsh's. On Sunday, the Patriots rolled out a favorite Walsh play, a double fake. Tom Brady pump-faked a screen pass left, then rapidly play-faked a draw, then threw down the middle to Deion Branch for a touchdown. Steve Young was a master of the double fake. In the current NFL, only Brady and Drew Brees run this action consistently. Right now the league's five highest-scoring teams -- Green Bay, Detroit, New England, Buffalo and New Orleans -- are a combined 17-3. None of these teams are in the top 10 for defense. In the modern game, high-scoring is the surest path to victory." http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7056133/tmq-says-nfl-comebacks-losing-team-lost-lead
BillnutinHouston Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 Interesting analysis. I think we ARE on the right track with Chan and Buddy.
MaineMoxie Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 Fascinating. Plug one or two more holes on D, get the O consistent, and the Bills could be a force. It also explains why Jauron was soooooo bad.
Don Dokken Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 Right now the league's five highest-scoring teams -- Green Bay, Detroit, New England, Buffalo and New Orleans -- are a combined 17-3. None of these teams are in the top 10 for defense. In the modern game, high-scoring is the surest path to victory." http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7056133/tmq-says-nfl-comebacks-losing-team-lost-lead I love TMQ and wholly agree that explosive offense is the way to go, but I couldn't help but laugh when I read this stat. Of course the five highest-scoring teams would be successful! It is almost as though the team with the most points wins the game.
jimmy10 Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 The point of the stat about the top five scoring teams is not that they're winning. Of course when you score more, you win more. The point is that none of those teams are in the top 10 for defense - so they are also giving up a lot of points too. Which emphasizes the main point of the article: high-octane offenses are in. You don't care if you give up 30. Just go out there and score 40!
NoSaint Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 17-3 with two of those losses head to head. The bills loss to cincy being the only one not at the hands of a top 5 offense
ColdBlueNorth Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 May be even more true the way penalties are called. I remember every run on the edge being called back because of a holding call on a TE, can't remember seeing even one of those penalties this year. I saw Merrimen hauled down from behind and sat on during a screen play against the Bengals and the official just looked the other way. All the rules to protect the QB, WR, and running backs where the defense cannot put a good hit on them. The only thing I have not seen a lot of is pass interference calls. Besides the one in our endzone against NE, I have seen DBs mugging guys all the way down the field without drawing the hanky. Interesting article and it is hard to argue with NE's success.
WickedGame Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 17-3 with two of those losses head to head. The bills loss to cincy being the only one not at the hands of a top 5 offense Which also means two of those wins are head to head...
Pete Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 interesting. I think we should run the no huddle much more often. Fitz definitely has the brains for it
The Senator Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) Belicheat* used to travel to Gainesville at least once a year, and/or bring Urban Meyer to Foxboro, just to study the Gators spread-offense and consult with Meyer on implementing it. NE*, Green Bay, the Colts, and a few other NFL teams have been using 'the spread' extensively for a few years now. The NFL's winning-est teams 'broke the code' long before the light bulb went on for rest of the league... Link - Belichick turns to unlikey source for coaching advice Link - Gators' spread offense catching on in the NFL Shotgun formations, ho-huddles, empty backfields, spreading the offense and forcing opponents to defend the entire length and width of the field, distributing the ball evenly among all offensive targets, right down to building an offensive line of nasty over-sized 'big uglies' to provide superior pass-protection - the similarities between what the Bills and the rest of the NFL's most potent, high-scoring, pass-oriented offenses are doing this season, and what Mike Leach was doing at Texas Tech 10 years ago (and even before he arrived at TT), are amazing... Link - The Mike Leach Offense Explained Link - Coach Leach Goes Deep, Very Deep For the last 4 years, I've been chastised ad nauseum by some on TSW attempting to enlighten me on why the high-scoring, pass-oriented, Spread/AirRaid/Whatever-You-Wanna-Call-It offense as implemented by Meyer, Leach, and others, is purely a college gimmick - and that it would never, ever work in the NFL. Well, the spread-offense has clearly arrived. The league's best coaches realized its effectiveness years ago, and the NFL certainly now recognizes the entertainment value of high-scoring aerial shoot-outs. It's here, and it's not going away. Lucky for us Bills fans, Chan Gailey's done a pretty darned good job implementing it... GO BILLSSS!!!! 18 and 1 baby!!!!! . Edited October 5, 2011 by The Senator
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) Gailey looks like a hell of a hire. Edited October 5, 2011 by Big Bad Boone
truth on hold Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) Thankfully Shannie thought he was too cool for us Edited October 5, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack
Captain Hindsight Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 Thankfully Shannie thought he was too cool for us and ralph was too cheap to pay him
truth on hold Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 No Ralph would have paid him same as hes getting in DC
UConn James Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) The New England coach is nothing if not analytical, and realized -- especially with the past decade of rule changes intended to favor offense -- that defense-oriented teams sometimes win but high-scoring teams almost always win. There are coaches who strategize to come out ahead in a low-scoring defensive struggle. For the past five years, Belichick has been strategizing to spin the scoreboard. The Patriots under Belichick are now 62-3 when scoring at least 30 points. A high-scoring team almost always wins, so Belichick has undergone a religious conversion, from defense to offense. Right now the league's five highest-scoring teams -- Green Bay, Detroit, New England, Buffalo and New Orleans -- are a combined 17-3. None of these teams are in the top 10 for defense. In the modern game, high-scoring is the surest path to victory." http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7056133/tmq-says-nfl-comebacks-losing-team-lost-lead A point I've been trying to make for the past few years as people here kvetch about the defense. How many times have I typed out "... the NFL has slanted the rules in favor of offense...." I don't know, but it's a lot. McKelvin complainers say that while he's usually in position to do so, he doesn't make plays on the ball very frequently/well. Well, pass interference calls that spot the ball at the point of the foul are at least part of the problem. A DB puts his hands out or up, or even just a slight nudge and he takes a huge risk in gifting a WR a catch he may not have been able to actually make. It seems like McKelvin takes the option of his close presence at the point causing enough of a distraction in the WR's attention to force an incompletion. Can't say I entirely blame him. It's Catch-22 these days. The thing in all of the rules changes, tho, is that the balance in the game is gone. It doesn't really matter if you invest heavily in your defense. Given the rules, most any offense you face is going to get yardage, is going to get points. What matters most is the margins --- forcing a field goal here, bending-but-not-breaking and forcing an odd punt, coming up with an INT or knocking the ball out. But wait, you say, to a large degree defense has always been about the margins. Yes, but the margins are ever thinner. Defenses can no longer take away the big plays from talented offenses because --- by nature of how much harder the committee has made it to play unpenalized defense --- they aren't allowed to do so! The NFL wanted more scoring. We're seeing high-30- and 40-point games at a time of the season that used to favor the defense as an O got its stevestojan together. This is what's wrought. Neutered defenses. So, it shifts most of the burden of success onto your offense. When the other team scores, your offense needs to respond in like kind or you're soon going to be down 14. It's one thing getting a defensive penalty; it sucks, but it's not as big a deal in a league where that's going to be the equivalent of a routine slant pass because your DB has to be scared to breathe on a WR. Getting screwed over by the refs on offense now hurts bigger than ever, which is what made the Stevie Johnson catch-then/but-not-a-catch such a blow. And as much as our O looked like it can hold its own (with our starters in place), the FO's almost entire devotion to drafting defense --- while perhaps necessary and beneficial to rebuilding what Jauron literally gutted --- can't continue. Teams need to invest first and foremost in a QB who can run your offense, and then offensive (OL second most important) depth. Look at the Colts with Manning vs. without now. Everything came unraveled. Edited October 5, 2011 by UConn James
dave mcbride Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 Good post and good comments by TMQ. One other central point: it really is all about the QB in today's NFL. Outside of Freddie Jackson, the other Bills skill players and their o-line are the opposite of elite when it comes to physical talent. Put Losman in at QB, and this team is averaging 11 points a game. Fitz's thinking on the football field rivals Brady's, Manning's, and Brees's. He doesn't have their physical talent (particularly w/regard to accuracy), but he's good enough. To think of it another way, who would you rather have - Fitz or Sam Bradford? I know who I'd take. Bradford is young, so he can obviously get better, but his processing doesn't impress me and he looks very mechanical. That's why Andrew Luck is the hottest qb prospect in ages. He has the mind for it as well as the talent.
kickedface Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 i have to agree that the nfl pretty much castrated defenses. i don't really like it. i've always been a fan of the defensive struggles. the ravens-jets game was pretty awesome. tmq really has had a direct line to my brain all season
JESSEFEFFER Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 (edited) With this type of football, it should really require a different metric to rate defenses other than yards allowed. I'd look at yards per play, 3rd down conversion rate and QB passer rating allowed. Edited October 5, 2011 by JESSEFEFFER
dorquemada Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 interesting. I think we should run the no huddle much more often. Fitz definitely has the brains for it You know, it turns out he went to Harvard, a school of some renown.
Captain Hindsight Posted October 5, 2011 Posted October 5, 2011 You know, it turns out he went to Harvard, a school of some renown. never heard of it
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