Nix is showing us the baby

[Scrappy]

I'm really liking Nix's winning attitude:

 

“Talk

is cheap, we all know that. It’s like I’ve always said, don’t tell me

about the labor pains,

just show me the baby. That’s what we’ve got to do. We’ve got to show

you the baby, and the

baby is winning,” Nix said Wednesday, according to the Buffalo News.

[BillnutinHouston]

Nix? I think the real congratulations go to Jim Overdorf - according to many on here, he's the one who is truly shaping this roster.

[hondo in seattle]

Nix? I think the real congratulations go to Jim Overdorf - according to many on here, he's the one who is truly shaping this roster.

 

[SoFFacet]

The effectiveness of Nix's drafting was brought up in this Tuesday's Sal/Leo articlein the D&C and got me thinking. While it is quite apparent that Nix and Gailey have succeeded in improving the performance of this team, it is also the case that the primary engine for this improvement thus far has not been the draft. Nix is on record stating that the Bills intend to build through the draft, as well they should. However, Nix's drafts have produced but one starter to date - Dareus. The question is whether or not this indicates a lack of drafting competence on the part of Nix, despite his demonstrated skill in finding gems in UDFA and the waiver wire.

 

I, for one, do not believe this is fair criticism. It is unreasonable to expect to find year 1 or year 2 starters after the 2nd round. Surely, it is possible, but the odds are against it, especially for the trench positions that Nix has devoted so many draft picks to. Those kinds of players routinely require several years of seasoning before developing into solid players. Worth mentioning is that nearly all of the draft picks are still with the team.

 

I would say then, that the only pick that can be fairly scrutinized at this point in time is Spiller, since he was a 1st round pick and could reasonably be expected to be a starter by this time. I think that most people recognize that Spiller could still become a great player for us, but lament the opportunity cost of picking Spiller (to date, a backup RB) instead of what could have been by this time a starting DE or LB - which we could really use right now.

 

My personal theory is that at the time of the 2010 draft, Nix and Gailey still didn't have a good idea of how good or bad the team they were inheriting was. They couldn't know for sure how many and which players were actually bad, or how many and which players only looked bad because they were surrounded by actually bad teammates, or because they were directed by actually bad coaching.They couldn't know how many and which players that were currently actually bad could be coached to improve, or how many and which players were lost causes. Sure, there were plenty of fan and media opinions on such matters, but as has become readily apparent, the fans and the media rarely have accurate impressions. Nix and Gailey rightfully didn't trust those opinions. So they decided to make no assumptions, disregard everything that the fans, media, Dick Jauron, and everyone else thought about that 2009 Bills, and draft the Best Player Available, period. Enter CJ Spiller.

 

Under the no assumptions approach, many players that had at least some fan and media support were determined to be actually bad, and were removed. Edwards, Lynch, Pos, Whitner, Maybin, Evans, the list goes on. The accuracy of Nix and Gailey's assessments of those players is evident in the team's turnaround this year. As it turns out one of the few actually good players that Nix and Gailey inherited was a running back (Fred Jackson), which has diluted Spiller's impact (Spiller has also diluted his own impact by underperforming expectations so far). Still, I can't blame Nix and Gailey for their approach. Without making assumptions there was no way to anticipate the needs of the 2011 Bills.

[Heathcliff]

I don't think they really knew what a gem Freddy really was. They did pick the best player available i.e. Spiller. It is comforting to know he is in the backup role should Freddy need a week or two off. Running backs are historically injury prone. You just cannot have enough of them. I think we will see the fruits of Spiller, albeit not as soon as a 1st round pick would normally be expected to contribute. But that day will come. Although I wish Freddy could continue to perform at his current level for another 3 or 4 years............... It is unlikely to happen. Enjoy the Freddy show now and prepare for the Spiller show in the future.

[truth on hold]

I think they were trying to make a splash with their first pick and hence the unexpeced spiller pick. I bet the motivation came more from nix looking for an all purpose back like LT

Edited September 28, 2011 by Joe_the_6_pack

[Stealth]

Mostly due to Fred Jackson perhaps, but I've been of the belief that a rb doesn't have to put up some mythical stats for perceived draft slotting. If Gailey can get out of Spiller say what Darren Sproles has done over his career in SD and now New Orleans than he is worth the pick, even if he's not a 1400 yard 400+ yard rush/rec back. Fred Jackson as of now affords us this opportunity to not put a square peg into a round hole. Get Spiller out in routes, off tackle runs and sweeps to get the man out in space. Let him return punts. He can be a valuable asset for this team and in 2 of the first 3 games esp the oak game proved as much

[BillsVet]

When you look at the people making plays so far this season, most of them are not Nix finds. Fitzpatrick, Stevie J, K. Williams, Kelsay (!), perhaps Bell, definitely Wood and Levitre, and of course Fred Jackson. Even Florence, McKelvin, and Byrd were there before Nix became GM.

 

In fairness, Dareus, David Nelson, Chandler, and Donald Jones have all been added since 2010. No one can expect a rebuild to be completed in 1 season, but I wouldn't say the team has been reconstructed at all. Having said that, they've gotten great production from people Nix didn't find. And the 2010 draft hasn't yielded any starters yet.

[thewildrabbit]

Its my take that Nix didn't really know or understand who were the best talent evaluators on the team besides himself. I mean c'mon the man can't scout every single player out there, he had to trust some others.I think what Nix finally realized is what most diehard fans have known for quite a few years. That Tom Modrak has been killing this team with his evaluations for the last decade, hence the reason he was finally fired. So I look at his first year as GM a wash because of Modrak still being the head of the scouting dept.

 

Now look at what happened since Nix figured out that he needed to be more involved in the evaluation process, The single acquisition of TE Scott Chandler was a huge upgrade to the offense. I can't state enough how much this single acquisition by the Bills helped their offense, in and out of the red zone.

 

Plus letting go of Lee Evans and the Poz has worked out very well so far. It really remains to be seen how Nix's drafts work out, but I can tell you that his influence on the players brought in for the O line, offense, defense have really upgraded this team. Plus they are doing it and winning with some not so great players.

 

His best move so far, firing Modrak.

 

His best player acquisition so far, Scott Chandler, the Bills finally have a decent huge red zone target. 4 TD's in 3 games so far, all this coming from a kid who had ZERO TD's and ONE catch in his first 4 years

 

I'm a Nix fan now

[jcbillsfan]

I have been thinking about the spiller pick . In fact the entire draft. If you look round by round at what the Bills Picked and the next ten picks in each round it is hard to fault a lot of their picks

round 1 spiller , maybe thomas ss would have been a wiser pick but not a huge need either , I know there is the Buluga fans but taking a right tackle that high is very unconventional .

round 2 clearly the Pats tight end would be the choice

round 3 I happy with pick

round 4 again you would have to say the pats tight end , but their was a ton of red flags on him

round 5 any but wang, but by round 5 kind of a crap shoot

round 6 Moats seemed like a steal last year, he seems to have fallen out of favor this year

round 7 what ever

 

on the whole does not look like it is going to be remembered as a very Deep or strong draft

[jcbillsfan]

isn't time for one of those buddy nix pressers .

[Malazan]

Thanks Jim Overdorf and Littman!

[clancynut]

They were not going to take the third best tackle with the 9th overall pick. Wilson said at the end of that season, the Bills need to more exciting on offense hence the Spiller pick. Plus they picked up David Nelson as a UDFA the day after the draft ended can't they count him as a scouting success?

[jcbillsfan]

They were not going to take the third best tackle with the 9th overall pick. Wilson said at the end of that season, the Bills need to more exciting on offense hence the Spiller pick. Plus they picked up David Nelson as a UDFA the day after the draft ended can't they count him as a scouting success?

nelson and jones both count.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

When you look at the people making plays so far this season, most of them are not Nix finds. Fitzpatrick, Stevie J, K. Williams, Kelsay (!), perhaps Bell, definitely Wood and Levitre, and of course Fred Jackson. Even Florence, McKelvin, and Byrd were there before Nix became GM.

 

In fairness, Dareus, David Nelson, Chandler, and Donald Jones have all been added since 2010. No one can expect a rebuild to be completed in 1 season, but I wouldn't say the team has been reconstructed at all. Having said that, they've gotten great production from people Nix didn't find. And the 2010 draft hasn't yielded any starters yet.

Let's not forget Nick Barnett, the best player on our defense so far in 2011.

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

Nix? I think the real congratulations go to Jim Overdorf - according to many on here, he's the one who is truly shaping this roster.

 

Bravo, my friend. Well played.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

I nominate OP for most tired cliches used in thread titles ever.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The effectiveness of Nix's drafting was brought up in this Tuesday's Sal/Leo articlein the D&C and got me thinking. While it is quite apparent that Nix and Gailey have succeeded in improving the performance of this team, it is also the case that the primary engine for this improvement thus far has not been the draft. Nix is on record stating that the Bills intend to build through the draft, as well they should. However, Nix's drafts have produced but one starter to date - Dareus. The question is whether or not this indicates a lack of drafting competence on the part of Nix, despite his demonstrated skill in finding gems in UDFA and the waiver wire.

 

My personal theory is that at the time of the 2010 draft, Nix and Gailey still didn't have a good idea of how good or bad the team they were inheriting was. They couldn't know for sure how many and which players were actually bad, or how many and which players only looked bad because they were surrounded by actually bad teammates, or because they were directed by actually bad coaching.They couldn't know how many and which players that were currently actually bad could be coached to improve, or how many and which players were lost causes. Sure, there were plenty of fan and media opinions on such matters, but as has become readily apparent, the fans and the media rarely have accurate impressions. Nix and Gailey rightfully didn't trust those opinions. So they decided to make no assumptions, disregard everything that the fans, media, Dick Jauron, and everyone else thought about that 2009 Bills, and draft the Best Player Available, period. Enter CJ Spiller.

 

Under the no assumptions approach, many players that had at least some fan and media support were determined to be actually bad, and were removed. Edwards, Lynch, Pos, Whitner, Maybin, Evans, the list goes on. The accuracy of Nix and Gailey's assessments of those players is evident in the team's turnaround this year. As it turns out one of the few actually good players that Nix and Gailey inherited was a running back (Fred Jackson), which has diluted Spiller's impact (Spiller has also diluted his own impact by underperforming expectations so far). Still, I can't blame Nix and Gailey for their approach. Without making assumptions there was no way to anticipate the needs of the 2011 Bills.

 

You make a number of interesting points. It is not uncommon for 2nd -4th round draft choices to take a couple years to develop. My take on the 2010 draft was we were still picking up too many projects: DEs we were going to convert into LB and so forth. Expect several years to develop in those circs. What you want to see is players being active on special teams and contributing when they do see the field. Moats, Carrington, Troup, and Batten all fit the Bill (haha) on this. I'm especially pleased by Batten's progress. Easley showed promise, too - just three bad rolls of the dice for him, not the fault of the talent evaluation. So I don't see 2010 draft as a bust at all. The only outright mistake was Wang. So far this year Williams and Searcy are showing promise, White is a special-teams Beast and Hairston looks like a find as well. I'd like to be seeing more from Sheppard - am I missing something?

 

An additional point is that at the time of the 2010 draft, Nix and Gailey were basically dependent upon the scouting reports of the previous regime, unless they had their own evaluation to work from. And they couldn't be sure which scouts were actually producing quality information, whether there was poor information versus good scouting being overruled. I think it says a lot that they drafted heavily from players Chan actually had worked with in the Senior Bowl in 2011, and that Modrak got his walking papers and the scouting staff reorganized this year. I actually respect that NIx gave it time and didn't come in with a scythe.

 

The real test will come in 2012, the first year of a scouting staff put together by the current regime. No excuses now guys.

[Scrappy]

I nominate OP for most tired cliches used in thread titles ever.

 

I second the .... hey wait a minute.

[JamieMD12]

Living in Baltimore, I see Nix taking a very simular approach to the draft as the very successful GM down here. Draft the "best available player" on your board. For too long we have seen GM's in Buffalo draft to fill a "need". What we need is the best available player on the board!!! If the stars align and our need is meet with the best available player on the board then GREAT. But the long term approach to succesful drafts has always been best available player.