Beware of the Bengals

[BiggieScooby]

The Cincinnati Bengals appear to the average flyby fan to be the next in line to get a drubbing similar to the one we put on Kansas City in week 1; however I wouldn't be too quick to chalk this one up in the win column just yet.

 

To the casual fan the Bengals are a mess: Carson Palmer retired rather than having to play another down for them, leading wide receiver Jerome Simpson had a 2.5lbs package of marijuana randomly show up at his home that the Feds happened to be tracking. They are starting an inconsistent rookie second round quarterback, an ACL injury claimed promising second year receiver Jordan Shipley's season, and dependable tight end Bo Scaife who signed after 6 productive seasons with Tennessee was also lost to IR. To make matters worse leading rusher Cedric Benson may face disciplinary action for his past transgressions during the lockout and may be suspended for a few games.

 

Now let me tell why the Bengals are a threat and here's why: Defense, Defense, and Defense. After pulling off a mild upset in week 1 on the road against rival Cleveland Browns, the Bengals lost a hard fought game in the closing seconds at Denver 22-24, and battled a similar offensively challenged but defensively talented squad in the San Francisco 49ers in a 8-13 loss.

 

The Bengals are two seasons removed from what was considered a surprising 10-6 2009 campaign. Andy Dalton is an underrated rookie QB who played lights out in college at TCU and upset Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl capping a 13-0 season. Dalton started all 4 years and went 42-8 in college as a starter including 34-3 in his final 3 seasons.

 

The Bengals also boast what could be the best sure-fire receiver in the past decade in AJ Green a player whom Jerry Rice said he'd prefer over Julio Jones from Alabama.

 

The Bengals are built to grind you down and stay in the game. Their defense is solid blended with veteran corners like Nate Clements and Leon Hall and younger studs like middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and a solid front 4. To make matters worse the Bengals are tied for 5th in the league with 9 sacks, the 5th rated pass defense at only 188.3 ypg, and the 5th rate run defense at 88.0 ypg. Cincy also has yielded the 6th fewest points per game at 18.0. Altogether the Bengals have the number 3 defense in all of football.

 

Offensively the Bengals boast the worst 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL at a lowly 23.7%, but they offer a balanced attack averaging 96.7 yards on the ground and 204.7 yards through the air.

 

To recap we are going up against a tough opponent who will find ways to slow down our attack with a top 5 defense. We are going against a QB who could be lights out, and a WR who is talented enough to challenge double coverage. Also the Bengals have a good tight end weapon in Jermaine Gresham who is sure to get Rob Gronkowski type looks. We also find ourselves in the same cleats we found ourselves last week, as the Bills have had the Bengals number in recent years racking off 10 wins in a row. I expect this to be a close game where turnovers decide the game. The longer the Bengals stay in this game, the more confidence their young offensive duo in Dalton and Green will have. Sorry guys but I think our Bills start slowly again and fall victim to the Bengals defense…Bengals 24 Bills 17.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Well, on any given Sunday…

 

Look, there are a few unheralded teams that are probably better than one might think… Tennessee immediately comes to mind.

 

And any team which doesn't come prepared to play is just asking to be beaten.

 

On the other hand, you have to ask yourself a few questions.

 

Are the Bills likely to suffer a letdown? If they're playing at less than 100% are the Bengals capable of beating them? And finally, speaking to your touting of the Cinci defense, how good are the offenses that the Bengals have faced?

 

Here's some statistical context for your thesis:

 

Offenses Ranked by Yardage:

 

26th Cleveland

27th Denver

32nd San Francisco

 

I'm not gonna worry about the Bills letting down… that's Gailey's job. I trust that all the talk from the Bills players that they have a chip on their shoulders and that they have a lot to prove to those who disrespect them, is truly motivating to them.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

I'd agree with the OP in regards to the Bengals defense - they're an underrated unit and have been for the past 2-3 years or so.

 

Some issues:

1. College stats don't matter - Dalton's TCU record means nothing to this matchup. Stick to pro performance. He showed promise against a bad Denver defense, but looked awful at times against a better SF D. Dalton is an unknown at this point.

 

2. Jerry Rice and everyone else thought Green was the top WR in the draft. Not sure what you're trying to say with that Julio Jones point.

[Big Turk]

I get it...just keep picking against the Bills every week til they lose and look like a genius when it inevitably happens...

 

Cincy got their only win because Dick Jauron was clueless, as usual, and his defense was still in the huddle as they snapped the ball and threw a 50 yard TD. They have played 3 consecutive teams that likely will finish in the bottom 10 in offense for the entire season, so I am not sure how legitimate their defensive ranking is. They certainly have not faced anyone even remotely close to the Bills class offensively. I see Cincinnati as having trouble scoring enough points to keep up with the Bills and the more they have to throw the ball with Dalton, the more it plays into the Bills hands.

 

Might not be an easy game, but it is a game the Bills should win.

[BiggieScooby]

 

Here's some statistical context for your thesis:

 

Offenses Ranked by Yardage:

 

26th Cleveland

27th Denver

32nd San Francisco

 

 

So far the Bills have played against these defenses:

 

32nd New England

28th Oakland

23rd Kansas City

 

I went to the game Sunday traveled 1500 miles to see it. I was damn impressed and proud of the way we fought back. I feel that Cincy will play a good game and they got a damn good defense.

 

I'd agree with the OP in regards to the Bengals defense - they're an underrated unit and have been for the past 2-3 years or so.

 

Some issues:

1. College stats don't matter - Dalton's TCU record means nothing to this matchup. Stick to pro performance. He showed promise against a bad Denver defense, but looked awful at times against a better SF D. Dalton is an unknown at this point.

 

2. Jerry Rice and everyone else thought Green was the top WR in the draft. Not sure what you're trying to say with that Julio Jones point.

 

1. College stats matter in context of proving that: A) this isn't a guy who hasn't played since high school a la Matt Cassel, B) they have played in big games on a big stage and won

 

2. Jerry Rice did say Green was the man, I brought up Julio Jones because look at all the picks Atlanta gave up just to get the clear number 2 receiver in the draft. AJ Green runs great routes and has great hands, its only a matter of time before he and Dalton look like all the other great QB/WR combos.

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

With regard to having a letdown Sunday, there are still quite a few out there claiming this team isn't for real. That the Raiders and Patriots games were flukes. People are continuing to say that they're not the best in the AFC East right now. If they lose a game right now it's all going to come crashing down, and everyone will pile on again. They know that. If they want ongoing respect, they have to keep winning. I don't think we'll have a letdown. This team hasn't been good long enough to get complacent.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

So far the Bills have played against these defenses:

 

32nd New England

28th Oakland

23rd Kansas City

Good job… but I think you're dead wrong about your prediction that the Bengals will beat the Bills 24-17.

 

We shall see.

 

 

[BiggieScooby]

With regard to having a letdown Sunday, there are still quite a few out there claiming this team isn't for real. That the Raiders and Patriots games were flukes. People are continuing to say that they're not the best in the AFC East right now. If they lose a game right now it's all going to come crashing down, and everyone will pile on again. They know that. If they want ongoing respect, they have to keep winning. I don't think we'll have a letdown. This team hasn't been good long enough to get complacent.

 

Consider my OP more of a challenge than doubt. I want the Bills to win, but I have grave concern about this game and how tough the Bengals are on defense. The Bills are a 3 point road favorite according to Vegas, would you bet on that?

 

Good job… but I think you're dead wrong about your prediction that the Bengals will beat the Bills 24-17.

 

We shall see.

 

Hey I'm the Bills biggest fan, but it isn't blind loyalty. I am not "fanatic" as Colin Cowherd would say. I want to be a realist on this season. The Bengals defense will be a tough matchup and the first true matchup for our offense. I am interested to see our our top 5 offense matches up against a real top 5 defense.

Edited September 28, 2011 by BiggieScooby

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Consider my OP more of a challenge than doubt. I want the Bills to win, but I have grave concern about this game and how tough the Bengals are on defense. The Bills are a 3 point road favorite according to Vegas, would you bet on that?

 

Yes, I would bet on the Bills covering 3 points… easily.

And I knew that your prediction had some ulteriors to it. That's why I made the comment that it's Gailey's job to keep the team from letting down. But regardless, you still made the prediction.

 

Hey I'm the Bills biggest fan, but it isn't blind loyalty. I am not "fanatic" as Colin Cowherd would say. I want to be a realist on this season. The Bengals defense will be a tough matchup and the first true matchup for our offense. I am interested to see our our top 5 offense matches up against a real top 5 defense.

 

BTW, I know they lost 3 DBs when we played them in Cinci last year, but the fact remains, we hung 49 points on the Bengals in the same stadium less than one year ago. They've lost J Joe but are otherwise the same defense. On the other hand, our offense is a lot better.

 

 

 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

You're not the "Bills' biggest fan." That's an arrogant thing to say in a community like this one.

 

Your OP contained a lot of new information for me and I thank you for that. It was well-thought-out, and you're clearly watching the Bengals closer than many of us.

 

That said, as SJ points out, the Bengals D has faced an underwhelming Browns offense, a Broncos unit in the midst of identity crisis under a new defensive-minded regime, and a 49ers offense that has averaged around 2.5-3.0 yards per carry in the rungame three straight weeks to go with a quarterback who has looked terrible.

 

The Bills have already lit up a good defense in the Oakland Raiders. Last Sunday they lit up one of the best defensive minds in football. The Bengals have not seen an offense anywhere near the Bills' ballpark. I think the game will be close early, but as it wears on for 4 quarters I have trouble envisioning their offense keeping up with ours.

 

I think we win by at least a touchdown, and I jumped on that -3.5 line as soon as I saw it Tuesday. On any given Sunday, of course, but we've shown the ability to avoid turnovers this year and IMHO that's the only way we lose this game.

Edited September 28, 2011 by Big Bad Boone

[Buffalo Barbarian]

The Cincinnati Bengals appear to the average flyby fan to be the next in line to get a drubbing similar to the one we put on Kansas City in week 1; however I wouldn't be too quick to chalk this one up in the win column just yet.

 

To the casual fan the Bengals are a mess: Carson Palmer retired rather than having to play another down for them, leading wide receiver Jerome Simpson had a 2.5lbs package of marijuana randomly show up at his home that the Feds happened to be tracking. They are starting an inconsistent rookie second round quarterback, an ACL injury claimed promising second year receiver Jordan Shipley's season, and dependable tight end Bo Scaife who signed after 6 productive seasons with Tennessee was also lost to IR. To make matters worse leading rusher Cedric Benson may face disciplinary action for his past transgressions during the lockout and may be suspended for a few games.

 

Now let me tell why the Bengals are a threat and here's why: Defense, Defense, and Defense. After pulling off a mild upset in week 1 on the road against rival Cleveland Browns, the Bengals lost a hard fought game in the closing seconds at Denver 22-24, and battled a similar offensively challenged but defensively talented squad in the San Francisco 49ers in a 8-13 loss.

 

The Bengals are two seasons removed from what was considered a surprising 10-6 2009 campaign. Andy Dalton is an underrated rookie QB who played lights out in college at TCU and upset Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl capping a 13-0 season. Dalton started all 4 years and went 42-8 in college as a starter including 34-3 in his final 3 seasons.

 

The Bengals also boast what could be the best sure-fire receiver in the past decade in AJ Green a player whom Jerry Rice said he'd prefer over Julio Jones from Alabama.

 

The Bengals are built to grind you down and stay in the game. Their defense is solid blended with veteran corners like Nate Clements and Leon Hall and younger studs like middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and a solid front 4. To make matters worse the Bengals are tied for 5th in the league with 9 sacks, the 5th rated pass defense at only 188.3 ypg, and the 5th rate run defense at 88.0 ypg. Cincy also has yielded the 6th fewest points per game at 18.0. Altogether the Bengals have the number 3 defense in all of football.

 

Offensively the Bengals boast the worst 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL at a lowly 23.7%, but they offer a balanced attack averaging 96.7 yards on the ground and 204.7 yards through the air.

 

To recap we are going up against a tough opponent who will find ways to slow down our attack with a top 5 defense. We are going against a QB who could be lights out, and a WR who is talented enough to challenge double coverage. Also the Bengals have a good tight end weapon in Jermaine Gresham who is sure to get Rob Gronkowski type looks. We also find ourselves in the same cleats we found ourselves last week, as the Bills have had the Bengals number in recent years racking off 10 wins in a row. I expect this to be a close game where turnovers decide the game. The longer the Bengals stay in this game, the more confidence their young offensive duo in Dalton and Green will have. Sorry guys but I think our Bills start slowly again and fall victim to the Bengals defense…Bengals 24 Bills 17.

OK Chan you can tell this to the team now, the fans know we will smash them worse than last year.

[shoretalk]

The Cincinnati Bengals appear to the average flyby fan to be the next in line to get a drubbing similar to the one we put on Kansas City in week 1; however I wouldn't be too quick to chalk this one up in the win column just yet.

 

To the casual fan the Bengals are a mess: Carson Palmer retired rather than having to play another down for them, leading wide receiver Jerome Simpson had a 2.5lbs package of marijuana randomly show up at his home that the Feds happened to be tracking. They are starting an inconsistent rookie second round quarterback, an ACL injury claimed promising second year receiver Jordan Shipley's season, and dependable tight end Bo Scaife who signed after 6 productive seasons with Tennessee was also lost to IR. To make matters worse leading rusher Cedric Benson may face disciplinary action for his past transgressions during the lockout and may be suspended for a few games.

 

Now let me tell why the Bengals are a threat and here's why: Defense, Defense, and Defense. After pulling off a mild upset in week 1 on the road against rival Cleveland Browns, the Bengals lost a hard fought game in the closing seconds at Denver 22-24, and battled a similar offensively challenged but defensively talented squad in the San Francisco 49ers in a 8-13 loss.

 

The Bengals are two seasons removed from what was considered a surprising 10-6 2009 campaign. Andy Dalton is an underrated rookie QB who played lights out in college at TCU and upset Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl capping a 13-0 season. Dalton started all 4 years and went 42-8 in college as a starter including 34-3 in his final 3 seasons.

 

The Bengals also boast what could be the best sure-fire receiver in the past decade in AJ Green a player whom Jerry Rice said he'd prefer over Julio Jones from Alabama.

 

The Bengals are built to grind you down and stay in the game. Their defense is solid blended with veteran corners like Nate Clements and Leon Hall and younger studs like middle linebacker Rey Maualuga and a solid front 4. To make matters worse the Bengals are tied for 5th in the league with 9 sacks, the 5th rated pass defense at only 188.3 ypg, and the 5th rate run defense at 88.0 ypg. Cincy also has yielded the 6th fewest points per game at 18.0. Altogether the Bengals have the number 3 defense in all of football.

 

Offensively the Bengals boast the worst 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL at a lowly 23.7%, but they offer a balanced attack averaging 96.7 yards on the ground and 204.7 yards through the air.

 

To recap we are going up against a tough opponent who will find ways to slow down our attack with a top 5 defense. We are going against a QB who could be lights out, and a WR who is talented enough to challenge double coverage. Also the Bengals have a good tight end weapon in Jermaine Gresham who is sure to get Rob Gronkowski type looks. We also find ourselves in the same cleats we found ourselves last week, as the Bills have had the Bengals number in recent years racking off 10 wins in a row. I expect this to be a close game where turnovers decide the game. The longer the Bengals stay in this game, the more confidence their young offensive duo in Dalton and Green will have. Sorry guys but I think our Bills start slowly again and fall victim to the Bengals defense…Bengals 24 Bills 17.

I think Gailey is right in stating that the challenge he faces is of over confidence but using the game of statistics is never successful because my stats can always counter your stats. It's what a team does on the field that matters most.

 

I love AJ Green, he's on one of my fantasy teams, but no rookie is a sure-fire superstar no matter what that well known talent evaluator Jerry Rice has to say. Dalton's college career I am sure made his family proud as well as the alum at TCU but how many college stud quarterbacks are there in comparison to successful NFL stars?

 

So, all that being said this is a dangerous game for the Bills. I think they are going to win but I am glad I am not a betting man because then I couldn't feed my family. However, this should be a victory for the Bills and they will be coming home 4-0 to play the 'Dream Team' that is having nightmares since it doesn't have an offensive line nor any linebackers plus their $100 million man is playing more like the old Mike Vick if he plays at all.

[FreakPop]

So far the Bills have played against these defenses:

 

32nd New England

28th Oakland

23rd Kansas City

 

I went to the game Sunday traveled 1500 miles to see it. I was damn impressed and proud of the way we fought back. I feel that Cincy will play a good game and they got a damn good defense.

 

 

 

1. College stats matter in context of proving that: A) this isn't a guy who hasn't played since high school a la Matt Cassel, B) they have played in big games on a big stage and won

 

2. Jerry Rice did say Green was the man, I brought up Julio Jones because look at all the picks Atlanta gave up just to get the clear number 2 receiver in the draft. AJ Green runs great routes and has great hands, its only a matter of time before he and Dalton look like all the other great QB/WR combos.

 

 

WOW! didn't know that. Oh I see it must have been a different Matt Cassel that threw like 27 TDs last year in the NFL and a different Matt Cassel who went 10-6 for NE as a starter a couple of years ago.

 

Is this new high school guy any good?

[Big Turk]

We hung 450 yards on virtually the same D last year to go along with 49 points. The Raiders have a better Dline than do the Bengals and we did just fine against them. Crowd noise should not b an issue as half the stadium will likely b pro-bills...

 

Fitz gets rid of ball too quick for pressure to be much of an issue...Jackson ate that D for lunch last year as did Stevie...

[JPS]

Once again, the stats tell you the Bengals played lower ranked offenses because the Bengals helped put those offenses lower. Likewise, the Bills played lower ranked defenses because the Bills helped put them there.

 

OP has excellent info on the matchups. Can out now seemingly consistent O-line hold up against a great front 7? That's the only question, that, if the Bills answer in the affirmative, they will win.

[Big Turk]

Also in a pretty interesting study, Football Outsiders found the most important thing for offensive line improvement year to year was continuity, not big name free agents or 1st round draft picks, or anything else. Teams that had their Olines playing together for the longest times outperformed those that tried to bring in big name FAs and chose high draft picks...

 

I think that is exactly what we are seeing with the Bills...

[The Wiz]

We hung 450 yards on virtually the same D last year to go along with 49 points. The Raiders have a better Dline than do the Bengals and we did just fine against them. Crowd noise should not b an issue as half the stadium will likely b pro-bills...

 

Fitz gets rid of ball too quick for pressure to be much of an issue...Jackson ate that D for lunch last year as did Stevie...

And the other half will likely be empty. Just heard they had barely 43,000+ fans at last weeks game and they have already announced that this weeks game is going to be blacked out (that's just hearsay from WGR).

[sweatpantsjoe]

Bills haven't lost to the Bengals since the 1988 AFC Championship. The Bills now own the longest active winning streak in the NFL against an opponent, that being the Bengals. Just saying.

[muffmonster]

Once again, the stats tell you the Bengals played lower ranked offenses because the Bengals helped put those offenses lower. Likewise, the Bills played lower ranked defenses because the Bills helped put them there.

 

OP has excellent info on the matchups. Can out now seemingly consistent O-line hold up against a great front 7? That's the only question, that, if the Bills answer in the affirmative, they will win.

 

I see what you are saying, which might be somewhat valid. But all in all both offensive and defensively the Bengals have played some really bad teams.

[CardinalScotts]

So far the Bills have played against these defenses:

 

32nd New England

28th Oakland

23rd Kansas City

 

I went to the game Sunday traveled 1500 miles to see it. I was damn impressed and proud of the way we fought back. I feel that Cincy will play a good game and they got a damn good defense.

 

 

 

1. College stats matter in context of proving that: A) this isn't a guy who hasn't played since high school a la Matt Cassel, B) they have played in big games on a big stage and won

 

2. Jerry Rice did say Green was the man, I brought up Julio Jones because look at all the picks Atlanta gave up just to get the clear number 2 receiver in the draft. AJ Green runs great routes and has great hands, its only a matter of time before he and Dalton look like all the other great QB/WR combos.

 

stop with the ranking garbage we are three games in