BillsBackersChicago Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 OK, I am glad I read the article about trap games before coming to any final conclusions: A trap game was defined as a good team (greater than .500 win percentage on the year) playing a bad team (less than .500 win percentage on the year) IN BETWEEN playing two good teams the week before and after. The comparison was to good teams playing bad teams on weeks when they do NOT play a good team the week before and after. They showed that the good teams beat the bad teams at the same rate when the game is a "trap" as when it is not a "trap". They appropriately do not compare it to when good teams play other good teams. Based on this, I guess it makes sense that there is no statistical credence to the idea of a trap game. Good teams beat bad teams at the same rate regardless of whether that game is scheduled as a trap or not. Thanks for educating me about this matter2003. Here's the link to the article.
Ozymandius Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 Look at it this way. If you knew beforehand that the Bills would go 1-1 against New England and Cincinnati, and you had the power to choose which of the two opponents the Bills would beat, you would all choose NE.
Bill from NYC Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 Look at it this way. If you knew beforehand that the Bills would go 1-1 against New England and Cincinnati, and you had the power to choose which of the two opponents the Bills would beat, you would all choose NE. The above is beyond dispute, but I think that I have a feel for where the OP was going. I am as euphoric as anyone here. Its as if I can't take my mind off of what is happening with this team. Seriously, it's almost surreal, and I feel like I can't down as a fan for this game. And I do know how little sense this makes. On paper, this game was made for us imo. They have a rookie qb who one would think that we can pressure and exploit. And the Bengals have their usual legal distractions to boot. A win here could enable us to finish at 6-6 and have a 10-6 record. So no, this game is NOT as important as the NE game was. But it feels like it is to me. GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Alaska Darin Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 I think in the grand scheme of things, it is just as important. The team is riding high and has a ton of confidence. They think (right now) that they're as good as anyone. Losing to the Bengals would be an enormous step back considering how far they've come. If you want to be an elite team, you HAVE to win the games you're supposed to win - pound the teams you're better than.
Fitz's Beard Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 If you want to be an elite team, you HAVE to win the games you're supposed to win - pound the teams you're better than. Someone I know once said that Good teams win games they should, great teams win games they shouldn't...just saying...
eball Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 Someone I know once said that Good teams win games they should, great teams win games they shouldn't...just saying... Someone you know sounds like a moron. What games exist that a "great team" shouldn't win?
Fitz's Beard Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 Someone you know sounds like a moron. What games exist that a "great team" shouldn't win? the point is, to make the leap from good to great, your team needs to win games that they truly shouldn't. Am I saying the Bills are great? not yet. I am convinced though that the NE game is a turn for the better though.
Big Turk Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 It was in one of the pro football prospectus books I have. I believe they looked at rivalry games or other "big games" that were then followed by a sucky team they were expected to beat handily. They found the crappy teams won at about the same rate regardless of if that team played a rival or other team that would be considered a "big game" or if they played 2 crappy teams in a row...basically the crappy teams still were crappy and won the same percentage of times regardless of what the prior weeks matchup was...
Captain Hindsight Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 This is just silliness. A non-division game NEVER holds more weight than a divisional game. You win your division and you get in the playoffs and you do that by beating your divisional opponents. Everything else is just noise. Tell that to the raiders last year 6-0 in the division 8-8 overall
eball Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 Tell that to the raiders last year 6-0 in the division 8-8 overall With your hindsight I'm surprised you posted this.
Like A Mofo Posted September 27, 2011 Posted September 27, 2011 This is just silliness. A non-division game NEVER holds more weight than a divisional game. You win your division and you get in the playoffs and you do that by beating your divisional opponents. Everything else is just noise. I agree. I think it would be better to say this week game might have more weight then the game against the Eagles. Conference wins > NFC wins when you get down to tiebreakers etc.
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