Jauronimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 More than a quarter of the time. Reading is hard. I generally don't wager straight up on 3pt underdogs for a variety of reasons: mainly because I don't like flushing $ down the toilet. I can get +3 if I want it. There are plenty of teams every week that I wouldn't bet on straight up that I also wouldn't pick against in a survivor pool. So that actually just proves that your point is retarded. In 2011, players do not hate their division foes. I'm sure you can find quotes of a Giants player saying he hates the Eagles because he wanted to pander to the fans. If you think 30yrs from now there's still going to be bitterness between rivals like there is today between the 70's Steelers & Raiders you are just fooling yourself. I didn't say there was evidence that indicated upsets are less likely in division games, so I don't know why you're asking. Half the people picking road teams, half of the time, is 25%. Apparently statistics is hard for some. I'll keep that in mind as a tune in to the love fest between the Stillers and Ravens. Whether or not the animosity is the same as it was in the 70s is irrelevant. Divisional opponents know each other well, and divisional games matter more than non-divisional games for a teams playoff chances. Do I need to explain this too? You said there is no statistical evidence to suggest upsets were more likely in interdivisional games. So are upsets less likely in interdivisional games, equally likely, or are you just letting me know that you cannot find stats on the topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrhody Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'd say the safest bets are... Patriots over Phins Falcons over Bears Giants over Redskins I'd go with one of the last two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 (edited) Half the people picking road teams, half of the time, is 25%. Apparently statistics is hard for some. I'll keep that in mind as a tune in to the love fest between the Stillers and Ravens. Whether or not the animosity is the same as it was in the 70s is irrelevant. Divisional opponents know each other well, and divisional games matter more than non-divisional games for a teams playoff chances. Do I need to explain this too? You said there is no statistical evidence to suggest upsets were more likely in interdivisional games. So are upsets less likely in interdivisional games, equally likely, or are you just letting me know that you cannot find stats on the topic? And the other half don't necessarily pick home teams 100% of the time... Survivor pools tend to feature Patriots-Bills and Eagles-Skins or even Seahawks-49ers games more than Steelers-Ravens. Please report back on the fierce animosity between those teams when you get the chance. Thanks for playing, better luck next time. Edited September 7, 2011 by BuffOrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Is there any statistical evidence that upsets are less likely in interdivision games? See New England v Buffalo. For years the Patriots have been the safest suicide pick when playing the Bills. NE: 15 for the last 15 when favored vs Buffalo. I may be a Bills fan, but looking ahead to week 3, anyone who eschews NE because they don't want to bet against the Bills in a week that so far looks very dangerous trying to pick any other game, is not playing to win the pool. In 2001 I won a suicide pool by picking the 49ers to beat the Bills on a Sunday night. There were a couple of upsets in the afternoon & I was the last man standing going into Sunday night. SF won 35-0. There's no room for sentimentality when money is on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 And the other half don't necessarily pick home teams 100% of the time... Survivor pools tend to feature Patriots-Bills and Eagles-Skins or even Seahawks-49ers games more than Steelers-Ravens. Please report back on the fierce animosity between those teams when you get the chance. Thanks for playing, better luck next time. That's an interesting link - - thanks for posting it. But it uses an odd methodology for determining what qualifies as an "upset." If I am reading it correctly, it simply assumes that the team with the better end-of-season record was the favorite. Does that make sense? By that criterion, in the season that the Dolphins went from a 1 win season to winning the AFC East, any Dolphin win over the Patriots that year was NOT an upset. Seems to me like that quirk of the methodology might introduce enough error into the results to cast some doubt on the article's conclusions. If you used this article's methodology, and the Bills had an undefeated seasom this year, none of those wins would be counted as "upsets." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That's an interesting link - - thanks for posting it. But it uses an odd methodology for determining what qualifies as an "upset." If I am reading it correctly, it simply assumes that the team with the better end-of-season record was the favorite. Does that make sense? By that criterion, in the season that the Dolphins went from a 1 win season to winning the AFC East, any Dolphin win over the Patriots that year was NOT an upset. Seems to me like that quirk of the methodology might introduce enough error into the results to cast some doubt on the article's conclusions. If you used this article's methodology, and the Bills had an undefeated seasom this year, none of those wins would be counted as "upsets." Which in retrospect would be accurate since the Bills would have proven to be the best team in the leauge. I think that methodology makes perfect sense. Calling something an 'upset' in Week 1 may be totally bogus because we don't really know how good these teams are, we're just going by reputation and assumptions on player changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 And the other half don't necessarily pick home teams 100% of the time... Survivor pools tend to feature Patriots-Bills and Eagles-Skins or even Seahawks-49ers games more than Steelers-Ravens. Please report back on the fierce animosity between those teams when you get the chance. Thanks for playing, better luck next time. But the former half always picks away games...half the time...? You should feel very vindicated by that comprehensive statistical study and the 1.7% margin, which is undoubtedly statistically significant. If we knew what a teams record would be at the end of the regular season, those stats might be useful. In the real world, favorites are determined on a week by week basis, and not necessarily based on W-L's. So I don't know what to make of that article. There have been plenty of lopsided divisional rivalries in the NFL over the years. All things being equal, I prefer the non-divisional game. Over the past few years, I've found divisional games that aren't Pats vs. Bills, NFC North vs. Lions, and AFC North vs. Browns/Bengals, pretty difficult in a pick 'em situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Definitely. Every couple of years Miami pulls off a surprise W over the Pats. I'd steer clear of divisional games this week. Pats can throw in stinkers during week one. They once almost lost at home to a Glove Wearing Mary. Looks like we are in the same pool. I am going with Cincy for sure! Good luck to you as well. What is your code name in the pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superb Owl Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I was thinking Cards, but am actually a little wary of teams first week with a new coach so the Panthers scare me a little. I really feel any new coach risk is negligible this year. Rivera had 6 weeks to install brand new offense and defense. It's new to all the players, not just Cam. It looks like the coaches have been trying to make up time - Steve Smith said his head was spinning with 50 plays installed per day (WTH?). Newton has honestly sounded overwhelmed in his interviews, constantly mentioning the steep learning curve and not really knowing where he's at with trusting the system and knowing where receivers will be. He did score a TD against the Steelers in the last preseason game but there were 6 backups on the Steelers D for that drive. The best way for the Panthers to pull a surprise would be to get a bunch of turnovers, but it's hard to see them getting a lot of pressure. In the 4th preseason game their announcers were saying their starting D-line had been "manhandled" in the two games prior. And then they went out and got run over by the Steelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That's an interesting link - - thanks for posting it. But it uses an odd methodology for determining what qualifies as an "upset." If I am reading it correctly, it simply assumes that the team with the better end-of-season record was the favorite. Does that make sense? By that criterion, in the season that the Dolphins went from a 1 win season to winning the AFC East, any Dolphin win over the Patriots that year was NOT an upset. Seems to me like that quirk of the methodology might introduce enough error into the results to cast some doubt on the article's conclusions. If you used this article's methodology, and the Bills had an undefeated seasom this year, none of those wins would be counted as "upsets." Fair point - I agree just taking the pt spreads at kickoff would be better. But I think 14yrs is enough of a sample to minimize the potential error in the criteria. Consider: A) A 2008 Dolphins-Patriots scenerio is no more likely to happen in division games than others. B) Vegas is obviously going to adjust their spreads by week 6 if the Bills are 5-0. The Dolphins-Patriots rematch in midseason '08 was about a pick 'em IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I really feel any new coach risk is negligible this year. Rivera had 6 weeks to install brand new offense and defense. It's new to all the players, not just Cam. It looks like the coaches have been trying to make up time - Steve Smith said his head was spinning with 50 plays installed per day (WTH?). Newton has honestly sounded overwhelmed in his interviews, constantly mentioning the steep learning curve and not really knowing where he's at with trusting the system and knowing where receivers will be. He did score a TD against the Steelers in the last preseason game but there were 6 backups on the Steelers D for that drive. The best way for the Panthers to pull a surprise would be to get a bunch of turnovers, but it's hard to see them getting a lot of pressure. In the 4th preseason game their announcers were saying their starting D-line had been "manhandled" in the two games prior. And then they went out and got run over by the Steelers. Good to know. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 You should feel very vindicated by that comprehensive statistical study and the 1.7% margin, which is undoubtedly statistically significant. If we knew what a teams record would be at the end of the regular season, those stats might be useful. In the real world, favorites are determined on a week by week basis, and not necessarily based on W-L's. So I don't know what to make of that article. There have been plenty of lopsided divisional rivalries in the NFL over the years. All things being equal, I prefer the non-divisional game. Over the past few years, I've found divisional games that aren't Pats vs. Bills, NFC North vs. Lions, and AFC North vs. Browns/Bengals, pretty difficult in a pick 'em situation. And you're vindicated by what - your own anecdotal/arbitrary memory of some pick 'em pool? Ok. It's pretty obvious you're arguing semantics just to argue at this point. You should have a blast making a fortune betting on underdogs in division games since it's not something that's accounted for in the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richNjoisy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Dudes, I know a lot about football but we can all use help from time to time. I entered a small survivor pool this year. Entry fee per team was $10,000 and there are 552 people in it as of now. I don't care about the money so if you help me win I will split it with you and other helpers. It is winner take all and there are usually a few late entries so it will probably end up around $6 million. Anyway, I want to win for pride. There are a few guys in this thing that think they are the cat's meow. I also funded Beerboy with an entry so I could mock him later. Don't help him or you won't share in my winnings. If he starts a thread all whiny about how he needs to pay for his spiral vaginitis treatments just don't help him. I would like to see him out in week one. Maybe you can sabotage him into picking the Bengals or something. Anyway, who do you guys think I should go with in week 1? I was thinking Cards, but am actually a little wary of teams first week with a new coach so the Panthers scare me a little. Any better ideas? Let me know and hopefully we can all win. I will keep you up to date. P.S. If more than one person goes through the whole season there are all sorts of weird rules. If it is a two way tie only it is a simple split. I am taking Houston in all my Survivor Pools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 And you're vindicated by what - your own anecdotal/arbitrary memory of some pick 'em pool? Ok. It's pretty obvious you're arguing semantics just to argue at this point. You should have a blast making a fortune betting on underdogs in division games since it's not something that's accounted for in the lines. I shared my own personal strategy for a navigating a survivor pool. You come in, infer that I'm an idiot, announce that people like me are the reason you love survivor pools, cite big time stats, and then can't back it up. I need no vindication in my strategy. If you're going to call someone out so rudely, make sure you've got all your facts straight. Or, perhaps, don't be a prick in the first place. That might work as well. No idea what that last sentence means. Guess you can scribble in writing right below reading and statistics to the list of "things that are hard." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I shared my own personal strategy for a navigating a survivor pool. You come in, infer that I'm an idiot, announce that people like me are the reason you love survivor pools, cite big time stats, and then can't back it up. I need no vindication in my strategy. If you're going to call someone out so rudely, make sure you've got all your facts straight. Or, perhaps, don't be a prick in the first place. That might work as well. No idea what that last sentence means. Guess you can scribble in writing right below reading and statistics to the list of "things that are hard." Get a room girls, I'm try to make a few bucks and embarrass Beerboy at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Beerboy made thread and is lying about the stakes of the pool. He is going to try to keep all the money after you guys do all the work. I'm not saying to give him bad picks but doesn't everyone think Vikings will crush the Chargers this week? Tell Beerboy and make it convincing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Take the Saints. Drew wants a new contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Pats can throw in stinkers during week one. They once almost lost at home to a Glove Wearing Mary. What is your code name in the pool? winnerwinnerchickendinner and thanks for your donation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 winnerwinnerchickendinner and thanks for your donation. Must be a different pool but good luck in yours. There is nobody with that code name in ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Must be a different pool but good luck in yours. There is nobody with that code name in ours. I'm not going to tell you my real code name. I don't need you begging me for money when I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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