Jacksonville to release Garrard

[Bill from NYC]

I stand corrected as far as McGahee and the Pro Bowl, but he still accomplished more as a Bill then Eric Wood has so far, and I can't stand McGahee and actually like Bad Santa. Lynch without questioned accomplished more than Wood, with a Pro Bowl and multiple 1,000 yard seasons here. If the Bills would have tried to resign Winfield he might has spent his whole career, but this organization won't pay to keep players who are elite at their positions.

 

But when they drafted MaGahee, they had to wait 16 regular season games for him to even take the field. and they KNEW he was hurt.

Sorry, but imo, he was yet another dumb selection, especially with Steinback sitting right there.

[beerme1]

But when they drafted MaGahee, they had to wait 16 regular season games for him to even take the field. and they KNEW he was hurt.

Sorry, but imo, he was yet another dumb selection, especially with Steinback sitting right there.

 

How can you say that was dumb? While our current GM admits to not being the smartest guy in the room, that was not the case back then and show that point he gave us an injured out for the year MaGahee

[dave mcbride]

Antowain Smith's career average yards per carry is 3.9. That includes his four years with the Bills, three years with the Patriots, and a couple of partial seasons with some other teams as his career wound down. The Bills' OL was better at run blocking than pass protection, and the Patriots' OL was good. 3.9 yards per carry doesn't really seem all that impressive to me. Other than his rookie year, he never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in any given season. By contrast, Fred Jackson's career average is 4.4 yards per carry.

 

I haven't yet figured out who Smith's backups were during the late '90s. But in the 2000 season, he averaged 3.5 yards a carry for Buffalo, while Sammy Morris and Shawn Bryson each averaged 3.7 yards a carry for the Bills. There's a reason why Smith was simply released instead of being traded away.

Um ... he was hurt (turf toe) in 2000. Focus on 2001, when he was an extremely valuable player, and his playoff production. Speaking of which, he had 14 carries for 79 yards and 2 receptions for 44 yards in the homerun throwback game. I'll take consistent playoff production any day of the week. That's when teams face the really good teams, after all. I can't believe that you're suggesting that a guy who ran for 7,000 yards (52nd in NFL history) and had strong playoff and Super Bowl production in three seasons was a disappointment (your words) at #23 overall. If that doesn't convince you, I suggest you re-watch the Pats-Rams Super Bowl and the AFC championship game between the Pats and Colts in January 2004.

Edited September 7, 2011 by dave mcbride

[Ramius]

What is baffling is that the Jags let him take 1st team reps all preseason and then dumped him. He's been on the team long enough to know what they have in him. If they wanted to cut him due to money reasons, why not do it in july, and give McCown/Gabbert 1st team reps?

[Red Squirrel]

Antowain Smith's career average yards per carry is 3.9. That includes his four years with the Bills, three years with the Patriots, and a couple of partial seasons with some other teams as his career wound down. The Bills' OL was better at run blocking than pass protection, and the Patriots' OL was good. 3.9 yards per carry doesn't really seem all that impressive to me. Other than his rookie year, he never averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in any given season. By contrast, Fred Jackson's career average is 4.4 yards per carry.

 

I haven't yet figured out who Smith's backups were during the late '90s. But in the 2000 season, he averaged 3.5 yards a carry for Buffalo, while Sammy Morris and Shawn Bryson each averaged 3.7 yards a carry for the Bills. There's a reason why Smith was simply released instead of being traded away.

 

I'm inclined to agree with most of your post, but would add that dumping Smith was a little more complicated than just chalking it up to performance. My recollection...anyone who remembers better is welcome to correct me...is that Smith regularly showed up to training camp out of shape. I think that regime got frustrated with him, and also thought he didn't contribute in the passing game. I can remember charting plays for a preseason game in that era...I did this on a hunch...and the results showed that they had about a 50/50 mix of pass/run when Jonathon Linton was in the game. But when Antowain Smith was on the field, they ran something like 13 out of 15 plays. I thought Wade and crew got fed up with him and set him up to fail. Ironically, he and Flutie were unleashed the last game of the year and both had their best game as Bills in their last one.

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

 

Antowain Winfield was by far the best football player on the earlier list, and amazingly is still a starter in the league today. The Bills could put him on an island against the other team's best WR, and know that over the course of the game that WR would not get out of hand. He was also a much better tackler than any CB has the right to be. If he had a weakness, it was his inability to catch potential INTs. A lot of fans base their Pro Bowl voting on whichever DB has the most INTs. Winfield clearly played at a Pro Bowl level while with the Bills, but didn't always receive the recognition he clearly deserved. The Bills got a very good return for the 23rd overall pick in the draft. (Or would have, had they not let Winfield go first-contract-and-out.)

True, a great tackler--if Winfield was a safety, we would say he was one of the best in the past 10 years. As a cover corner, he struggled.

[Orton's Arm]

Um ... he was hurt (turf toe) in 2000. Focus on 2001, when he was an extremely valuable player, and his playoff production. Speaking of which, he had 14 carries for 79 yards and 2 receptions for 44 yards in the homerun throwback game. I'll take consistent playoff production any day of the week. That's when teams face the really good teams, after all. I can't believe that you're suggesting that a guy who ran for 7,000 yards (52nd in NFL history) and had strong playoff and Super Bowl production in three seasons was a disappointment (your words) at #23 overall. If that doesn't convince you, I suggest you re-watch the Pats-Rams Super Bowl and the AFC championship game between the Pats and Colts in January 2004.

As the link you provided earlier pointed out, Smith averaged 3.9 yards a carry while with the Bills, and 3.9 yards a carry while with the Patriots. Is that any better than Smith's backups would have done, had they been given those carries? Sammy Morris's career average is 4.2 yards a carry, and Shawn Bryson's is 4.1 yards a carry. I'll grant those averages were compiled with generally different OLs than the ones Antowain Smith had. But "different" doesn't necessarily mean "worse at run blocking." I don't see a whole lot of evidence that Smith was a huge improvement over the other RBs the Bills had at the time.

 

And as the Red Squirrel has pointed out, Smith was generally not a major factor in the passing game.

 

You mentioned Smith's performance on the home run throwback game. During that game, the Titans' defense was much more committed to rushing the passer than to stopping the run. They figured that Rob Johnson was vulnerable to being sacked, so why not go after him? Similarly, when teams played the Patriots, they were typically much more interested in stopping the Patriots' passing game than their running game. During the regular season Smith only averaged 3.9 yards per carry for the Patriots despite the pressure their passing game took off their running attack, and despite their good OL. If that represents the successful use of a first round pick, Fred Jackson is clearly worthy of the Hall of Fame!

 

I'll grant that it was an error for the Bills to have released Smith. Travis Henry didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Smith to justify the use of a second round pick, especially considering the fact the team was riddled with needs at other positions.

 

The last time the Bills picked a RB in the first round who lived up to his draft position, that RB's name was O.J. Simpson. Since then, no other first round Bills' RB has come remotely close to doing so.

 

True, a great tackler--if Winfield was a safety, we would say he was one of the best in the past 10 years. As a cover corner, he struggled.

This is incorrect. Winfield played very well as a cover corner.

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

 

This is incorrect. Winfield played very well as a cover corner.

I respectfully disagree!

[dave mcbride]

As the link you provided earlier pointed out, Smith averaged 3.9 yards a carry while with the Bills, and 3.9 yards a carry while with the Patriots. Is that any better than Smith's backups would have done, had they been given those carries? Sammy Morris's career average is 4.2 yards a carry, and Shawn Bryson's is 4.1 yards a carry. I'll grant those averages were compiled with generally different OLs than the ones Antowain Smith had. But "different" doesn't necessarily mean "worse at run blocking." I don't see a whole lot of evidence that Smith was a huge improvement over the other RBs the Bills had at the time.

 

And as the Red Squirrel has pointed out, Smith was generally not a major factor in the passing game.

 

You mentioned Smith's performance on the home run throwback game. During that game, the Titans' defense was much more committed to rushing the passer than to stopping the run. They figured that Rob Johnson was vulnerable to being sacked, so why not go after him? Similarly, when teams played the Patriots, they were typically much more interested in stopping the Patriots' passing game than their running game. During the regular season Smith only averaged 3.9 yards per carry for the Patriots despite the pressure their passing game took off their running attack, and despite their good OL. If that represents the successful use of a first round pick, Fred Jackson is clearly worthy of the Hall of Fame!

 

I'll grant that it was an error for the Bills to have released Smith. Travis Henry didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Smith to justify the use of a second round pick, especially considering the fact the team was riddled with needs at other positions.

 

The last time the Bills picked a RB in the first round who lived up to his draft position, that RB's name was O.J. Simpson. Since then, no other first round Bills' RB has come remotely close to doing so.

 

 

This is incorrect. Winfield played very well as a cover corner.

I'm noting the conspicuous lack of discussion regarding Smith's playoff performances over seven playoff games and two super bowls. I'm also noting the lack of discussion regarding his status as the #52 rusher all time.

 

Jerome Bettis averaged 3.9 ypc for his career. Eddie George averaged 3.6. They were like Smith - big guys who pounded it inside. But I do see your point now. I'd take Sammy Morris and Fred Jackson over any of them. Heck, I'd take Jonathan Linton over either Bettis or George.

 

I simply can't believe you're using the ypc stat for an inside-the-tackles pounder to say that the #52 rusher of all time with two strong Super Bowl performances to his credit wasn't worth a late first round pick.

 

PS - that "great" NE o-line of 2001 gave up a whopping 46 sacks with a sack rate of 8.7 percent (9.0 for Brady and 7.0 for Bledsoe). Smith had 4.0 ypc, but the overall team ypc rate was 3.8.

Edited September 7, 2011 by dave mcbride

[Orton's Arm]

I'm noting the conspicuous lack of discussion regarding Smith's playoff performances over seven playoff games and two super bowls. I'm also noting the lack of discussion regarding his status as the #52 rusher all time.

 

Jerome Bettis averaged 3.9 ypc for his career. Eddie George averaged 3.6. They were like Smith - big guys who pounded it inside. But I do see your point now. I'd take Sammy Morris and Fred Jackson over any of them. Heck, I'd take Jonathan Linton over either Bettis or George.

 

I simply can't believe you're using the ypc stat for an inside-the-tackles pounder to say that the #52 rusher of all time with two strong Super Bowl performances to his credit wasn't worth a late first round pick.

 

PS - that "great" NE o-line of 2001 gave up a whopping 46 sacks with a sack rate of 8.7 percent (9.0 for Brady and 7.0 for Bledsoe). Smith had 4.0 ypc, but the overall team ypc rate was 3.8.

If Smith's performance in the second of his two Super Bowls was that impressive, why did the Patriots release him almost immediately thereafter? Why wouldn't they want to retain a player who you seem to feel had been instrumental in their second Super Bowl win and the playoff victories which led up to that win?

 

As for Smith's #52 yards of all time stat--that's mostly a function of longevity and of carries per year. It's certainly not because Smith's average yards per carry was anything special. (It wasn't.) Drew Bledsoe has passed for more yards than all but a few QBs in NFL history. Other than his first few years in New England and his first eight games in Buffalo, his play was nothing special. Antowain Smith's career was just like that, except shorter and without any excellent seasons or half seasons thrown in. Also, Bledsoe was clearly better than backup-caliber players like van Pelt; whereas there was not necessarily a huge gap between Smith and his backups.

 

Shawn Bryson averaged 3.9 yards per carry while in Buffalo, which is the same average Antowain Smith compiled. Sammy Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry while with the Bills, which is moderately worse.

 

As for your point about Jerome Bettis and Eddie George--I admit their career averages are lower than I would have expected. While I do not claim to know why this had been the case, I suspect part of it may be because of defenses ganging up to stop the run. I assume you are not trying to put Smith into the same category as Bettis or George. Your point seems to be that a big, between-the-tackles RB will tend to have a yards per carry stat which understates the true quality of his play.

 

Even granting that your point may be correct, I still don't see a strong case for Smith. It wasn't like he was considered a sizzling hot commodity on the free agent market after the Bills released him. Had he set the league on fire his first three years only to be hindered by turf toe in 2000, then certainly he would have garnered far more interest than he did. When the Patriots signed him--and actually won a couple of Super Bowls with him--it was seen as evidence you can win despite having a mediocre RB. Smith was a better player than TD may have given him credit for, but was not anything special.

[dave mcbride]

If Smith's performance in the second of his two Super Bowls was that impressive, why did the Patriots release him almost immediately thereafter? Why wouldn't they want to retain a player who you seem to feel had been instrumental in their second Super Bowl win and the playoff victories which led up to that win?

 

As for Smith's #52 yards of all time stat--that's mostly a function of longevity and of carries per year. It's certainly not because Smith's average yards per carry was anything special. (It wasn't.) Drew Bledsoe has passed for more yards than all but a few QBs in NFL history. Other than his first few years in New England and his first eight games in Buffalo, his play was nothing special. Antowain Smith's career was just like that, except shorter and without any excellent seasons or half seasons thrown in. Also, Bledsoe was clearly better than backup-caliber players like van Pelt; whereas there was not necessarily a huge gap between Smith and his backups.

 

Shawn Bryson averaged 3.9 yards per carry while in Buffalo, which is the same average Antowain Smith compiled. Sammy Morris averaged 3.6 yards per carry while with the Bills, which is moderately worse.

 

As for your point about Jerome Bettis and Eddie George--I admit their career averages are lower than I would have expected. While I do not claim to know why this had been the case, I suspect part of it may be because of defenses ganging up to stop the run. I assume you are not trying to put Smith into the same category as Bettis or George. Your point seems to be that a big, between-the-tackles RB will tend to have a yards per carry stat which understates the true quality of his play.

 

Even granting that your point may be correct, I still don't see a strong case for Smith. It wasn't like he was considered a sizzling hot commodity on the free agent market after the Bills released him. Had he set the league on fire his first three years only to be hindered by turf toe in 2000, then certainly he would have garnered far more interest than he did. When the Patriots signed him--and actually won a couple of Super Bowls with him--it was seen as evidence you can win despite having a mediocre RB. Smith was a better player than TD may have given him credit for, but was not anything special.

The Pats released him because RBs age in dog years, and the man was a rookie at the age of 25 because he delayed college to care for his mother in rural AL, who was dying of cancer. As for the market for Smith in 01, who cares? The proof is in the pudding -- he had 1157 yards and 13 TDs after being signed by the one team that decided to take him, and I'm guessing that Belichick was happy with his decision in retrospect. As for both ypc for NFL pounders and Smith's longevity, the facts speak for themselves. In fact, the criticism that he played for a decent number of years strikes me as counterproductive to your case. This ain't Terry Miller or Greg Bell that we're talking about. Please, please admit that in the long history of late first round picks, a guy with Smith's record doesn't count as a disappointment.

 

Also, Bledsoe never had a good SB. And why is Shawn Bryson in this coversation at all? Bringing him and Linton in defeats your case -- longevity and production is generally regarded as a positive when assessing someone"s career.

Edited September 8, 2011 by dave mcbride

[NoSaint]

What is baffling is that the Jags let him take 1st team reps all preseason and then dumped him. He's been on the team long enough to know what they have in him. If they wanted to cut him due to money reasons, why not do it in july, and give McCown/Gabbert 1st team reps?

 

Perhaps there's more to it than money? Perhaps even a little beyond just onfield play- I'll point to the lockerroom questions and not being voted captain the day before his release. Perhaps it was a discussion in the front office and they took that as the players blessing of sorts

Edited September 8, 2011 by NoSaint