2011-12 day trading game part deux

[Magox]

Not that they were over-valued to begin with, or there couldn't have been a bubble, could there?

Not as long as the Chinese economy was powering ahead.

[birdog1960]

I've been wanting to say something for a while now, but didn't really want to influence anyone's opinion regarding their positions, their real life positions that is, considering that the majority of you guys have REAL portfolios. I'd hate to say something, and then have someone ACTUALLY value my opinion and then adjust or tweek their portfolio and then end up having the market reverse.

 

I've been shorting precious metals. Even though I do believe it will reverse itself anywhere from the $1580-$1700 range. TLT probably wouldnt be a bad position considering that 1) the economy is weak so that should provide demand for bonds. 2) Europeans are in a world of hurt, and European bonds are riskier than American bonds and 3) The Fed is gonna buy 6-30 year bonds. Having said that, I don't believe TLT is a good long-term position to have. Once you see the economy pick itself back up, you could probably reverse that TLT and buy a TBT and make a killing.

 

I wouldn't touch Banks or even think about them. Their liabilities are huge unknown. We don't know the extent of all the bad paper they are holding. The economy isn't improving so that limits demand for loans. We don't know how much they will get sued for from both State AG's and from the federal government. Dodd-Frank regulations is expected to take a chunk out of earnings beginning 2012. Basel regulations are getting tougher. And last but not least, especially now with Operation twist, the yield curve is flattening which is a death knell for Banks. In other words there is too much uncertainty. Having said, they have been hit sooo hard, maybe they are actually fairly priced. But with the uncertainty out there, I wouldn't even think about them... That's just me.

 

I might add, I've never have seen an economy do well with the banking sector languishing.

 

Commodity stocks are plunging, in my view the biggest catalyst is the possible slowing down of the Chinese economy. We are gonna have to see how that plays out. If indeed the Chinese economy is slowing down more rapidly than analysts expect, we could possibly see a HUGE correction.

 

What's also troubling apart from the US slowing down, Europe on the verge of chaos and China possibly slowing down, you are now beginning to hear CEO's come out with cautious statements and downward revisions in demand estimates.

 

I just think you gotta be real cautious in what you buy, pick the top company of the sector that you are looking for and wait for the right time.

thanks for your insight. i've been following ANR for almost a year now and have come close to pulling the trigger in real life even while getting burned on it bad recently in this game. it's been as high as 100 and is now trading at 20. it's one of the largest coal companies in the world. how can its value possibly decrease by a factor of 5 in a year especially when most felt it's recent acquisition of massey energy was a wise move? fear has got to be a big part of the current low and the high was likely a bubble but i've got to conclude that, at least in this instance and probably in many more, emotions rather than rational thinking are running the market.

[TPS]

thanks for your insight. i've been following ANR for almost a year now and have come close to pulling the trigger in real life even while getting burned on it bad recently in this game. it's been as high as 100 and is now trading at 20. it's one of the largest coal companies in the world. how can its value possibly decrease by a factor of 5 in a year especially when most felt it's recent acquisition of massey energy was a wise move? fear has got to be a big part of the current low and the high was likely a bubble but i've got to conclude that, at least in this instance and probably in many more, emotions rather than rational thinking are running the market.

That, and too much money chasing/searching for returns of yesteryear...

[Clip Smith]

Buy 84 Shares AGQ @119

 

Keep the change

 

Cash balance 0

 

That, and too much money chasing/searching for returns of yesteryear...

 

I remember my folks having a CD indexed to the S+P where you could not lose your principal and were capped at 12% for the year. I wonder if that is still available?

 

I think the politicians don't mind seeing another disaster unfold so people don't scream when another bailout has to go through. It sure looks like it will have to happen.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

I'm not budging UNLESS it is October of 1929 all over again... could it happen AGAIN??

 

OMFG, what a week.

[Booster4324]

I'm not budging UNLESS it is October of 1929 all over again... could it happen AGAIN??

 

OMFG, what a week.

 

How are you doing overall?

[EasternOHBillsFan]

How are you doing overall?

 

I'm down $550 thanks mostly to Google, but I'm in it for the long haul with Cisco, Google, and MELA Sciences. I feel great about them, and they will recover.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Google is now at $591 a share, Cisco is now over $17 a share, and MELA Science is up to $6.60 a share (double what I paid for it).

 

I am now up over $1,000 to date... that Google stock is a beast.

[Booster4324]

Google is now at $591 a share, Cisco is now over $17 a share, and MELA Science is up to $6.60 a share (double what I paid for it).

 

I am now up over $1,000 to date... that Google stock is a beast.

 

I am up $972.00 with my APPL. How is everyone else doing?

[birdog1960]

I am up $972.00 with my APPL. How is everyone else doing?

i'd bet you're the leader but my bets are pretty sorry...think i'm last. anybody doing better than booster? in real life, i bought ANR at 20, up almost 10% today. sell or hold magox? just kidding.... wife's in vegas at a conference. think i'm gonna have her bet the bills for the SB. it's about as good as any bet i can see on the market.

[John Adams]

Peace still has his $10,000. Anyone beat that yet?

[Magox]

Peace still has his $10,000. Anyone beat that yet?

I'm tied with him

 

And I'm getting very close to going long gold.... Every time it approaches $1600 my emotions get the best of me and our traders on staff. We always say "this time we're gonna go long when it approaches $1600" then we don't pull the trigger.

[birdog1960]

this europe sh&* is really scaring me as is the markets reaction. they resolved nothing over there today yet the market was encouraged and rose. what happens if the talks collapse? i think that's as likely as not. yet several us indicators were positive today including (gasp) housing. cashed out a significant portion of my investments after todays gains. what do the players here think?

[Clip Smith]

Selling 168 AGQ @ 69.42

 

Proceeds $11,662.56

 

All Cash @ $11,662.56

[drinkTHEkoolaid]

I'm up to 10,595.22 in stocks with 30 something cash left I don't feel like checking my exact amount this second . Might be making a move shortly

[Magox]

this europe sh&* is really scaring me as is the markets reaction. they resolved nothing over there today yet the market was encouraged and rose. what happens if the talks collapse? i think that's as likely as not. yet several us indicators were positive today including (gasp) housing. cashed out a significant portion of my investments after todays gains. what do the players here think?

Actually there was significant progress. On two front from my perspective, one that Merkel finally stepped up to the plate to a degree and got lawmakers behind her ultimatum she made to the banks, which was "you are either gonna take this haircut, or we will begin the default process and we will make sure that the whole world knows that you weren't willing to take the needed haircut to avoid financial world wide calamity". This was important for the markets because it showed more solidatiry than we had previously seen. And two, a big key ingredient to the solution, which I've written about here before, regarding "the end game" was that banks would have to forgive a large portion of the greek debt (the "haircut").

 

Now I'm not saying that the European sitution has been resolved, because it hasn't, and I'm fairly certain that we will revisit it again with more future panics, there are many questions that still need to be answered, such as how in the hell are the banks going to be able to raise enough private capital to ensure the markets, how is the European Bailout fund going to be implemented and leveraged and more importantly will the Southern Europeans have the discipline to follow through with their austerity measures, AND simultaneously implement growth policies to avoid a social uprising of sorts. Those are big if's. Plus, I'm not so sure that the Germans will have he political will to go through this again.

 

But for now, this will assuage the markets fears for an X period of time. My guess is that pretty much everything will gain value except bonds.

[sherpa]

I'm up about 15%, but I expected this to be a slow two quarters for my pick.

[birdog1960]

I'm up about 15%, but I expected this to be a slow two quarters for my pick.

about 1/2 of that today. pray tell us, what's the story with white mountain titanium? i see it's chilean and the ceo is a brit making $180k/year (plus moderate stock options) and they've had some promising research conducted at cambridge. any other nuggets you could share?

Edited November 2, 2011 by birdog1960

[sherpa]

about 1/2 of that today. pray tell us, what's the story with white mountain titanium? i see it's chilean and the ceo is a brit making $180k/year (plus moderate stock options) and they've had some promising research conducted at cambridge. any other nuggets you could share?

 

Sure, I'll share, with the disclaimer that I have quite a large position.

The project revolves around concessions in the northern Chile area, (void from earthquakes so far). That area is a mining area. Initially, Phelps Dodge owned the concessions as a potential copper play. After a time they were interested in the titanium dioxide assets. After a time, Phelps Dodge decided to stick with copper dioxide exclusively, and move away from TIO2. During their time they hired the number one mines and minerals attorney in Chile to handle the eventual claims matters. When he became aware they were going to sell it he put together most of the current team which had in depth knowledge of the TIO2 production possibilities.

They then formed White Mountain Titanium Corp. The site is located inland from a deep water sea port, and has readily available rail access to it. There are no major environmental issues. During this preparatory time, they also acquired, literally at courthouse auction, the Carolina Prospect which vastly increases rutile, the stuff you get TIO2 from, vastly multiplying their asset base.

Bringing a mine on line is a vastly detailed undertaking and WMTM is at the last stage now, finishing up its bankable feasibility study. When that stud is complete, it will show the project to be very likely to be financially successful. A test mine built by SGS in Canada using WMTM's raw material and mine production model has already passed. with flying colors.

While waiting for the completion of Bankable feasibility, the company and various end users have already signed four outtake contracts. The last one listed a price of $1200/metric ton. I can a tell you that the original plan was to be able to sell at about $400/mt. TIO2 prices have escalated significantly since project development.

Once Bankable is complete, they will acquire the financing for mine buildout, a critical juncture and one I follow as closely as legally possible. At this point there is absolutely no problem with financing the buildout on very favorable terms as there are three separate sources that are interested, and at very favorable debt to equity rates.

A few other notes. I know CEO Mike Kurtanjek quite well, and I talk to him regularly. I have subscribed to two of his private placements on the process to finance burnout rates. He is an extremely frugal guy, totally share holder driven. He has a great team on his board. He also has very strong Chilean political support and the locals can't wait to get started, As you may know, Chile is an extremely stable, mine friendly capitalist s country with a superb infrastructure.

The project makes fantastic sense as a TIO2 stand alone mine, but they have figured out a way to make tons of money of the tailings by producing feldspar, used in the glass and ceramic industries. That would provide, essentially, free money.

But....There's more. The company has been working with Cambridge Doctor Fray on a method of completely redefining the method of using TIO2 feedstock to eventually produce titanium sponge and titanium powder. There is massive demand for titanium sponge and powder in the avaition and medical fields, and end prices are a 12x (+/-), price advantage over the already highly profitable TIO2, used by Dupont and other major players in paints pigments and papers.

Anyway, that the Cliff notes. I've been on this for five years and I chat with the players regularly. The stock has had a magical year, but once Bankable is done, and construction starts, it will get even greater visibility. Production is probably a late 2012date, but that's when it gets real interesting.

Great management team. Always under promises and over delivers.

Edited November 3, 2011 by sherpa

[birdog1960]

Sure, I'll share, with the disclaimer that I have quite a large position.

The project revolves around concessions in the northern Chile area, (void from earthquakes so far). That area is a mining area. Initially, Phelps Dodge owned the concessions as a potential copper play. After a time they were interested in the titanium dioxide assets. After a time, Phelps Dodge decided to stick with copper dioxide exclusively, and move away from TIO2. During their time they hired the number one mines and minerals attorney in Chile to handle the eventual claims matters. When he became aware they were going to sell it he put together most of the current team which had in depth knowledge of the TIO2 production possibilities.

They then formed White Mountain Titanium Corp. The site is located inland from a deep water sea port, and has readily available rail access to it. There are no major environmental issues. During this preparatory time, they also acquired, literally at courthouse auction, the Carolina Prospect which vastly increases rutile, the stuff you get TIO2 from, vastly multiplying their asset base.

Bringing a mine on line is a vastly detailed undertaking and WMTM is at the last stage now, finishing up its bankable feasibility study. When that stud is complete, it will show the project to be very likely to be financially successful. A test mine built by SGS in Canada using WMTM's raw material and mine production model has already passed. with flying colors.

While waiting for the completion of Bankable feasibility, the company and various end users have already signed four outtake contracts. The last one listed a price of $1200/metric ton. I can a tell you that the original plan was to be able to sell at about $400/mt. TIO2 prices have escalated significantly since project development.

Once Bankable is complete, they will acquire the financing for mine buildout, a critical juncture and one I follow as closely as legally possible. At this point there is absolutely no problem with financing the buildout on very favorable terms as there are three separate sources that are interested, and at very favorable debt to equity rates.

A few other notes. I know CEO Mike Kurtanjek quite well, and I talk to him regularly. I have subscribed to two of his private placements on the process to finance burnout rates. He is an extremely frugal guy, totally share holder driven. He has a great team on his board. He also has very strong Chilean political support and the locals can't wait to get started, As you may know, Chile is an extremely stable, mine friendly capitalist s country with a superb infrastructure.

The project makes fantastic sense as a TIO2 stand alone mine, but they have figured out a way to make tons of money of the tailings by producing feldspar, used in the glass and ceramic industries. That would provide, essentially, free money.

But....There's more. The company has been working with Cambridge Doctor Fray on a method of completely redefining the method of using TIO2 feedstock to eventually produce titanium sponge and titanium powder. There is massive demand for titanium sponge and powder in the avaition and medical fields, and end prices are a 12x (+/-), price advantage over the already highly profitable TIO2, used by Dupont and other major players in paints pigments and papers.

Anyway, that the Cliff notes. I've been on this for five years and I chat with the players regularly. The stock has had a magical year, but once Bankable is done, and construction starts, it will get even greater visibility. Production is probably a late 2012date, but that's when it gets real interesting.

Great management team. Always under promises and over delivers.

great summation....sounds like a very interesting prospect. thanks.