Thigpen

[shoretalk]

I feel Thigpen's performance this preseason has been below expectations. In fact, in another thread I have him listed as a surprise cut if we are able to find another quality back-up cut during the next week.

 

Like Trent Edwards it is his decision making process that has me questionning whether we could do better in finding a back up to Fitz. And, yes his passes are off but the fact that he has played in a Gailey system before should mitigate those arguments that say he hasn't had enough time to learn the playbook.

 

However, I do fully understand that he has not played with the one's and he arrived here knowing that he had no chance of being named the starter unless Fitz got hurt. Those are two realities that can negatively impact performance.

 

He is better than Levi and Smith is not going to be our #2 quaterback so ... unless someone gets cut who is decent our back-up for the season with be Thigpen and we better hope Fitz stays healthy!

[Hplarrm]

There are certain basic things every QB in the NFL has to do, with the key ones being: recognition of defenses combined with making the correct calls; ability to get the ball out fast (and to your own receiver, in a way that allows him to get YAC and NOT get him killed); and, most critically, accuracy. The difference between starters and back-ups seems to come down to one of them being able to do these things better than the other.

 

From what I've seen of Thigpen so far this pre-season, his recognition is mediocre, his reaction time is slow, and his accuracy is god-awful. If he's the Bills back-up in the regular season, we'd better pray to all the gods there are that Fitz doesn't get hurt because no amount of practice time, no amount of playing time with the first string will make up for his shortcomings in fundamentals. Right now, I'm more worried about the back-up QB position than any other on this team. And that's saying a lot.

This strikes me as odd since in general, the best team strategy regarding the QB position is not to pursue the incredibly unlikely possibility that your back-up QB is a long-term option to start (afterall, its tough enough to get a 1st string QB who is an adequate long-term option to start) but instead try to make sure your 1st string QB does not get knocked out for more than a game or two.

 

The Bills seem far more likely to me to get 12-16 at least adequate starts out of Fitzy running a Gailey offense which over the years he has shown can be productive with a so-so QB, than to get one's panties all up in a wad because your back-up QB is not a capable long-term option as a starter.

 

In fact, the best back-up QB the Bills ever had was Frank Reich whom no one mistook as a long-term option as a starting QB (though a couple of teams did try this and he failed miserably).

 

The goal for the Bills to reach at #2 QB is to get a guy who is capable for stepping in and holding the line on the job for 3 games max and the hope is actually that Fitzy can at least pull off what he did last year that he was forced by injury to sit only one game (he sat a few by choice as the Bills played out the ill-fated Edwards experiment.

 

It strikes me that the more intelligent strategy for how we handle the back-up QB are:

 

1. Improve the OL so it is at least adequate which it is not right now. We need a solid RT starter, a solid LG starter, and most important need to build chemistry of this group as a unit. We MIGHT be able to do this, but its going to be tough because we did not spend the money necessary to get the personnel (not throwing cap room money which we have at Clady is an example) more likely to succeed at this task. It could happen but it is going to be tough.

 

2. Use the TE position as a max protect scheme quite a bit. This move is regrettable since I think our O is most productive with three WRs and the TE sitting IF the rest of the OL is adequate. However, the OL starters may be weak enough that Gailey is unable to compensate with a mobile QB making quick decisions alone and we need to do more max protect to survive.

 

3. Amp up the blitz protection of the RBs. If the opponent has good players and can attack, then we made need the last ditch effort of the RB also playing a max protect role on blitz pick-up. i think Jackson can do this but when he does we lost an offensive weapon. I feel comfortable with Spiller as an exciting runner but lack confidence in his blitz pick-up that I like him more as a third WR than starting RB, but this takes us right back to the failings of the OL.

 

Its a puzzle but actually has a significantly larger (though still small) chance of success with the existing starters doing well and particularly the QB remaining healthy than instead focusing attention on getting a great bench warming clipboard carrying #2 QB.

 

I simply do not see your concern being justified by how and who you would get to make this work.

[Billy in 4C]

This strikes me as odd since in general, the best team strategy regarding the QB position is not to pursue the incredibly unlikely possibility that your back-up QB is a long-term option to start (afterall, its tough enough to get a 1st string QB who is an adequate long-term option to start) but instead try to make sure your 1st string QB does not get knocked out for more than a game or two.

 

The Bills seem far more likely to me to get 12-16 at least adequate starts out of Fitzy running a Gailey offense which over the years he has shown can be productive with a so-so QB, than to get one's panties all up in a wad because your back-up QB is not a capable long-term option as a starter.

 

In fact, the best back-up QB the Bills ever had was Frank Reich whom no one mistook as a long-term option as a starting QB (though a couple of teams did try this and he failed miserably).

 

The goal for the Bills to reach at #2 QB is to get a guy who is capable for stepping in and holding the line on the job for 3 games max and the hope is actually that Fitzy can at least pull off what he did last year that he was forced by injury to sit only one game (he sat a few by choice as the Bills played out the ill-fated Edwards experiment.

 

It strikes me that the more intelligent strategy for how we handle the back-up QB are:

 

1. Improve the OL so it is at least adequate which it is not right now. We need a solid RT starter, a solid LG starter, and most important need to build chemistry of this group as a unit. We MIGHT be able to do this, but its going to be tough because we did not spend the money necessary to get the personnel (not throwing cap room money which we have at Clady is an example) more likely to succeed at this task. It could happen but it is going to be tough.

 

2. Use the TE position as a max protect scheme quite a bit. This move is regrettable since I think our O is most productive with three WRs and the TE sitting IF the rest of the OL is adequate. However, the OL starters may be weak enough that Gailey is unable to compensate with a mobile QB making quick decisions alone and we need to do more max protect to survive.

 

3. Amp up the blitz protection of the RBs. If the opponent has good players and can attack, then we made need the last ditch effort of the RB also playing a max protect role on blitz pick-up. i think Jackson can do this but when he does we lost an offensive weapon. I feel comfortable with Spiller as an exciting runner but lack confidence in his blitz pick-up that I like him more as a third WR than starting RB, but this takes us right back to the failings of the OL.

 

Its a puzzle but actually has a significantly larger (though still small) chance of success with the existing starters doing well and particularly the QB remaining healthy than instead focusing attention on getting a great bench warming clipboard carrying #2 QB.

 

I simply do not see your concern being justified by how and who you would get to make this work.

 

Disagree. Youngmack is right on this one. If Fitz goes down, we have no shot at winning with Thigpen. He looks awful.

 

Your theory about backup quarterbacks is flawed. Look at how Fitz became the starter. He was brought in as a #2 and given a shot when Edwards sucked. He is now our starter. Unless you are a 1st round pick and handed the keys, that is generally how #2s become #1s. Especially on teams like the Bills.

[Hplarrm]

Disagree. Youngmack is right on this one. If Fitz goes down, we have no shot at winning with Thigpen. He looks awful.

 

Your theory about backup quarterbacks is flawed. Look at how Fitz became the starter. He was brought in as a #2 and given a shot when Edwards sucked. He is now our starter. Unless you are a 1st round pick and handed the keys, that is generally how #2s become #1s. Especially on teams like the Bills.

To me the issue is how do you get a franchise QB but then given the fact that there is about a 75% chance you are not going to get a franchise QB how do you win without one.

 

Is Fitzy a franchise QB?

 

Pretty doubtful.

 

Who is your #2 that instead you envision as your franchise QB?

 

If you hear any sound it likely is crickets.

 

The key question for this team is NOT who is the #2 who will likely be our franchise QB when Fitzy gets hurts or fails. How can you possibly assign much of a probability to this working out?

 

The real questions are that given the far greater likelihood that we are going to have a pedestrian QB (I like Fitzy but am under no illusions that he ever credibly will be called a franchise QB) is that we figure out a way to make the playoffs with a pedestrian QB or even with a bad one like Thigpen.

 

I think the Bills plan is to improve the more easily improvable parts of the team (they have reinforced the DL big time with the anchor of Williams, the maturation of several highly drafted youngsters (Troop and Carrington), a couple of journeymen whose games MIGHT step up with quality play around them, and most of all drafting one of the most talented rookie DL guys in Dareus,

 

Further, they are pursuing a high risk but potentially high risk LB strategy dealing with Merriman injury, acqusition of a few mid-level FAs and it is to be hoped development of youngsters like Batten.

 

Overlay a potentially good DB crew reinforced with the draft and MAYBE this crew competes for the playoffs.

 

The back-up QB issue is best solved by not having to use him besides mop up and 3 starts max.

I am all eyes if you can explain to me how you are going to make your strategy work.