WHY and WHY NOT

[bartshan-83]

Well now that the biggest scandal in college football since SMU has broke and has been posted on TWO boards here besides the College Football Board, I think it's time to get things moving around here. Glorious kickoff is 2.5 weeks away. We're coming in for the landing.

 

So I thought of a topic that could be interesting (or not) and could get a little discussion going.

 

Post your highest "realistic" ceiling for your favorite team. Then give 3 reasons why they'll get there and 3 reasons why they won't.

 

NOTRE DAME

Realistic Ceiling: 11-1, BCS birth

 

Why They Will:

1. Defense Defense Defense

There hasn't been as much optimism towards a Notre Dame defense since maybe the end of Lou's days. They were thoroughly embarrassed in some big ways earlier last season (Denard Robinson totalling 500+ yards, Navy violating us in unspeakable ways) but during the last 5 games of the season, ND allowed FOUR defensive touchdowns (and that included 2 4th Quarter garbage TDs against Miami in the Sun Bowl). Breaking it down further, starting after Tulsa's opening drive of the game, ND's defense went 18+ quarters while allowing only one TD. That touchdown? It was a four-play TWO-yard drive vs. USC after we turned the ball over on our own 2 yard line. Now, we weren't playing Oregon and Oklahoma during that stretch, but it was extremely impressive nonetheless. All reports are that the D has taken a further step forward this year and the ridiculous freshman DL haul we got last year is going to make them pretty special. I can't wait.

 

2. Continuity

Brian Kelly admitted that after the 1-3 start, he realized that he had pushed too hard, too fast in getting his spread-offense scheme installed. The players came out of a very different pro-style offense under Weis and they simply did not know what they were doing at a level of competence required. And beyond that, just having the same coaches, same routines, same faces, same playcalls from year to year is huge. This spring they were able to hit the ground running instead of doing things like getting used to the coaches, learning new positions, new schedules, etc. A lot of teams make a big jump in the 2nd year of a coaching change and this is a big reason why.

 

3. Schedule

Although my woefully-misinformed buddy Ramius (among others) seems to subscribe to the myth that ND plays soft schedules every year, that is not the case. No JV warmup games, no I-AA schools. However, there are also no world-beaters on the docket this season. It's the kind of schedule that a good team should be able to handle, but can easily lead to 4-5 losses if you aren't for real. Opening with USF won't be cake, going into Michigan for their first ever night game the following week will be nuts. Michigan State was BCS level last year and Cousins is legit. USC should be a win, but they still have talent. And Stanford is a mystery, but betting against the best QB in the country is questionable. And until we can prove we aren't Navy's B word, I'm not penciling that one in either. If ND can get onto a nice roll and survive the first 4 games unscathed, the sky is the limit. If they stumble to 3-1 (likely) or 2-2, we are likely looking at an 8-10 win team.

 

 

Why They Won't:

1. Schedule

At the risk of appearing totally contradictory, my previous paragraph cuts both ways. As stated, if ND is truly in the 15-20 rank range, then chances are they will not breeze through the schedule. As stated, they open with a legit opponent, they play 3 Top 25 teams (including USC if they could be ranked) and hand full of 25-40 level teams. There aren't too many breaks and if they aren't ready out of the gate, they will pay.

 

2. QB

Crist will start, despite the reported battle between him and Rees. He is more talented and more experienced. But he was incredibly inconsistent last year and if he has not progressed enough, the offense will struggle again. Plus, he has proven to be about as durable as Rob Johnson so there is no guarantee he makes it through the year. Kelly has proven he can win with multiple QBs and I think things will be okay here. But until the bullets fly, it is a giant question mark. And team with question mark QBs don't win BCS bowls.

 

3. Brian Kelly

I firmly believe that he has the potential to be something special. His track record is great and his overall results last year, while mixed, were positive and trending upwards. But he made a bunch of head-scratching decisions. Indefensible calls and bizarre moments. And getting embarrassed, utterly embarrassed by Navy will never be erased. Their is a fear that he will stubbornly try to show he can with with his super-tempo spread even if the players aren't grasping it. The biggest reason we went 4-0 down the stretch last year was that the defense stepped up and playing a true freshman QB forced him to dumb the offense way down. They ran a lot more and controlled the clock. It was a very successful formula leading a lot of people to wonder why we didn't do that earlier in the year and also to fear that he will revert. But I believe he is the right guy and I expect the offense to be successful (in whatever form it takes).

 

 

So there it is. I think that 9 wins is the minimum expectation of success this year. Anything less will be disappointing (barring major injuries). Another issue is that while our frontline talent looks great, we are incredibly thin at CB and RB. If something goes sideways there, there will be true freshman on the field (and not 5-star blue chippers).

 

Either way, I am pumped for this year. More than I've been since I allowed Charlie's 2005 season to sucker me in.

 

GO IRISH!

[Acantha]

Florida Gators

Realistic Ceiling: 10-2, BCS birth

 

With a new, well, everything in Gator country this year it's difficult to pin down expectations. There's a lot of "ifs" and "on paper" type quotes floating around, and that's always scary. My write-up pretty much reflects that with the same areas showing up on both sides of the line.

 

Why They Will:

1. Talent

Well...sort of. They have a lot of young talent and some solid returning vets, but they were brought in for a different kind of system (but more on that later, for now I'll just focus on talent alone). Meyer's last recruiting year was insane, especially on the defense. The whole team still has a lot of speed and they've gotten bigger in key areas as well. There also seemed to be an influx of guys capable of playing multiple positions, so there's been some shuffling between linemen, LB's, TE's and FB's. Not that that means much in itself, but it at least makes things interesting. All in all, the talent is there, it just has to be molded. Which leads me to:

 

 

2. Coaching

They have an all new coaching staff and after the past few years in Gainesville that has to be a good thing. I loved Meyer, but losing Strong and Mullen and replacing them with out of their depth coordinators combined with Meyer deciding to take a hands off approach due to his health led to a disaster last year. Not only did upgrades come, but they came big. Love him or hate him, Charlie Weis has proven to be a success on the offensive side of the ball and was a huge get for Florida. Add to that a DC with a lot of NFL D-line experience and a Head Coach that has had great college success on the defensive side of the ball, and you have a recipe for some excellent coaching. Of course a recipe is one thing and the finished meal is another...but at this point the recipe's all we got to go on.

 

 

3. Brantley

This could go anywhere (Why they will, why they won't, coaching, talent, etc...) so I'm just throwing it in here. Brantley was a big recruit with serious talent coming out of high school and showed that he could at least make the throws during his cleanup time while Tebow was here, but when his time came to be the man, he fell on his face. It's hard to say if this was the fault of Brantley or an offensive coordinator that was completely lost and given way too much responsibility. It was obvious that Brantley didn't belong in the spread, but either did Leak who made the best of it. I think a lot of blame rests on Brantley's shoulders, but there's enough blame to go around that there is still a lot of hope for him this year. Brantley is the prototypical pro-style QB. He's big, has a strong arm, and can move around the pocket and scramble for first downs when he needs to. If anyone can get him back on track it's Weis, and the new system should fit. It all just depends on how Brantley jumps back from last year. Reports out of spring training have been all over the place and culminated in a poor spring game, so it appears there's still work to be done.

 

 

 

Why They Won't:

1. Talent

While years of good recruiting leave Mushcamp with a fairly stocked team, he's going into the season with a lot of youth and an entirely new system on both sides of the ball. This team was put together for a spread, and while Weis' pro style offense may be great for Brantley, growing pains for the rest of team are unavoidable. I've also heard that Mushcamp and Quinn want the defense to be a little more hardnosed, not relying quite so much on pure speed; something that will take some time to instill.

 

2. Coaching

There's always going to be a tough transition when you bring in an entirely new coaching staff with new systems. How well this staff can get the team ready to play will be what decides their fate. There's also been some question if Mushcamp is going to be able to handle Weis. My guess is there won't be much drama this year, but that could be story line for the future.

 

3. Schedule

Alabama, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, and the SOW for a team with so many questions likely means bad things. None of these coaches have a recent history with these teams, which means everything is starting from scratch. The staff seems talented enough on paper, but much like the player they are unproven. The SEC is not forgiving, and these coaches have to face the best it has to offer this year.

 

Summary:

Tough schedule, all new coaches, young talent in a new system, and coming off a terrible year. The Gators have enough pure talent to win the games they are supposed to and sneak an "upset" in there somewhere, but I don't see them doing anything more than that. I'd expect similar results as last year with 7-8 wins. If they get any more than that, it's going to mean the coaches are better than most Gator fans have dared to vocalize, and it would mean really good things for the future of Gator football.

 

 

GO GATORS!

[UConn James]

Kinda odd how the college board gets short shrift WRT proper moving of topics.... There's been hella more on OTW and TSW than here. What gives?

 

Anyway....

 

UConn: Realistic ceiling of 6-6. Borderline minor bowl.

 

Why they will:

 

The lines - The overall structure of the trenches, which bred several 1,000+ RBs while Randy Edsall was coach remains in place. Run blocking was very good, pass protection was decent enough to get us to the Fiesta Bowl with the Big East's BCS berth.

 

Paul Pasqualoni - While some people seem down on PP, he saw a lot of success at Syracuse and until he was lured here, he'd been coaching in the NFL for a few years. He's a change-up to Edsall's run-first, run-second, run-third style (which changed last year under a new OC who was given more of the reigns). Hope this means a more exciting offense that will not be so predictable. Edsall raised the baby from our entrance into D-1A football for the first 10 years, but after a few seasons of departure speculation, he felt it was time to move on and for some, the feeling was mutual. Edsall helped lead the campus through the senseless murder of CB Jasper Howard outside of the Student Union just a few hours after a game in '09. After something like that, there's two possible reactions. While I thought he might stay to see that whole group of guys through, it seemed like Edsall gave that group another year because he owed it to them. Still, he was jumpy all season, and it culminated in a terminally abrupt departure that left a bad taste in many a mouth in CT. (While he forced RB Jordan Todman to reveal plans to declare for the NFL Draft immediately after the Fiesta Bowl, he said nothing of his own plans, which was a flight to Maryland a few hours after the game and an introduction as their HC the next day). We've lost several in-state prospects (e.g. Aaron Hernandez who went to FLA) because of a perceived lack of connection with the tri-state area high school coaches. One of the oft-derided selling points was that PP has a solid history; boosters might deride it all they want, but it's damn important to know people when vying for recruits. Seems to have paid off already, as he's got a commitment from an in-state 3-star HS junior QB for next season. Also, I look for games to become fully 187% more watchable now that we have a head coach who doesn't crouch on the sidelines under the guise of seeing the field better, but really as a way of showing off his package (this is a tame photo). Seriously, Randy? Seriously? No one wants to see that.

 

QB - In what PP has described as almost a dead heat between 4 guys, two freshman (one red-shirted), a sophmore who took ~ a dozen snaps last year, and a junior who was a viral video star this known as the "Trick Shot Quarterback" this past winter/spring.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0WMd0Y6hIw

 

If this kid can do all the other things a QB has to do when 300-pound DTs are chasing him and the bullets fly for real, his accuracy can only be an asset for a program that hasn't really had a feature QB since Dan Orlovsky. The last time PP was this unsure of his QB so late in camp, Donovan McNabb took the field for Syracuse and the rest, as they say, is history. I'm certainly pulling for MacEntee.

 

Why They Won't

 

RB - I'm really not sure who they have to replace Todman in a northeast offense that's used the running game as its bread and butter for a while. This becomes important as the weather turns. The biggest holdover I remember was D.J. Shoemate, a touted commodity who for some reason transferred from the sunny climes of USC to Snorrs, CT. He had a case of fumblitis in the Michigan opener last year when we were in prime position for an upset, which let the Wolverines back in the game... and afterwards, he became a ghost. In order to have any chance of a balanced attack, they have to find a successor for Todman, and quickly.

 

QB - Yep, you're not seeing things, QB is in both. As everyone knows, the position is key. If Pasqualoni can't deliver a starting QB from among this group of untesteds, it's going to be a very long year.

 

Institutional Change - As regimes change, coaches are pretty much forced to put square pegs in round holes. Rosters aren't tailored to their liking to any degree. There's an entirely new playbook/terminology to learn, a loss of unspoken understanding, and new relationships to manufacture. We also add in the spectre of UConn's AD Jeff Hathaway getting the boot by the new university president Susan Herbst (and Jim Calhoun, whose rocky relationship with Hathaway... well, let's just say they tangled a--holes a few times, and it's not a wise idea to do that with a HOF, 3-time National Championship coach.) Pasqualoni was Hathaway's hire, so there's that, yet it seems like whoever they're going to bring in as AD will be required to be comfortable with the current big 3 coaches. So, it's shake-up all around. Sometimes it can work for a program. Usually, it doesn't.

 

Most are picking UConn to finish last in the BE. I put 6-6 as the ceiling. If things work out for them, especially at QB, it could be so. The schedule starts out pretty light, so there will be some acclimation time before the conference games begin. Not expecting much this year. It's an introduction.

 

I'm actually more interested/worried WRT the conference musical chairs. It's really up in the air, where if things start to go down, we may get pushed in one of several places... either as a ACC-North or Big(12)10 that could feature an intriguing blue-white vs. blue-white with Penn State, or as a part of the remainders of the Big East after it's been raided. The pull of the strong B-Ball teams will help, but football is what drives realignment. After investing quite a lot in the program, it will be very unpleasant if it all goes to crap.

[Ramius]

FSU

Realistic Ceiling: 14-0, National Championship

 

There's a lot of positive vibes down here in Tallahassee heading into Jimbo Fisher's second season. Almost all of the old Bowden/Andrews guys are out fo the system, and Jimbo's offense is up and running. He's dead set on turning FSU into an SEC type smashmouth team that is going to kick your ass up and down the field. In his past 2 seasons, Fisher has stocked the lines with 13 recruits weighing over 300 lbs coming out of high school, and he's got a ton of momentum after reeling in the #1 recruiting class in the nation.

 

Why they Will:

 

1. Defense (DL), and Defense (DBs)

Mark Stoops has whipped this defense into shape ,and FSU may have the best DL in the country. We go 9 deep on the DL, and feature returning stars Brandon Jenkins, Everette Dawkins, Jaccobi McDaniel and Bjoern Werner. We've also been hearing nothing but glowing news about incoming freshman Tim Jernigan. They simply can't keep him off the field and he's been blowing up everyone they put in front of him. Nigel Bradham leads a solid LB corps, and The secondary is stellar. Led by Greg Reid, it also features Xavier Rhodes forming a shutdown CB tandem. Freshman phenom Lamarcus Joyner moves over to S to bolster that position. The defense is going to come hard after people in waves.

 

2. Running game

We've got the 4 headed monster at RB, with starter Chris Thompson the best of the bunch, but Ty Jones and Jermaine Jones should see lots of action. As usual, hybrid FB Lonnie Pryor will see his fair share of touches. Toss in freshman James Wilder jr, and thats a nasty stable of RBs. These guys can run over, around, and right past anyone. Jimbo wants to pound the ball, and is going to. The ground game really opened up last season, and should only improve this year. Like the defense, the RBs will come at you in waves, always someone with fresh legs.

 

3. Coaching/Institutional change

The attitude is completely different around FSU nowadays. Gone are the laid back, whimsical days of Bobby Bowden. Jimvo has installed an SEC style no-bull **** approach to football. He keeps a clamp on the players and media. Mark Stoops is a top DC, and probably wont be here much past this season, as he should be in line for HC jobs. Rick Trickett is one of the best OL coaches in the business. The staff was also revamped to (finally) include a complete strength and conditioning program, as well as a nutrition program for the players. There was little of this with Bobby in town.

 

Why they won't

1. The offensive line

The line was great last year, but we lost a couple of key contributors. It should be solid, but there have a rash of injuries along the line during spring and current practices. If these guys stay healthy, they'll be fine, but if they can't stay on the field, there isn't much "game-ready" depth behind them. We've got some good young players, and the OL should be great in a year or 2, but young guys on the OL take a bit to develop, and the kids we've got will struggle if pressed into action too early this season.

 

2. EJ Manuel

While the kid has the athleticism and brains to be a great one, he remains sort of unproven. He's done a fantastic job the past 2 seasons filling in for Ponder, playing 4 games each of the past 2 years, and leading us to 2 bowl wins. We've got no reason to think he'll play poorly, but now he's got the target on him. Teams are going to prepare for his running style as opposed to Ponder's pocket style. I think Manuel can be great, but he has struggled with accuracy at times. If he struggles, so will the offense.

 

3. Schedule

Our OOC schedule features 2 cupcakes, but we've got #1 Oklahoma rolling into Tallahassee on Sept. 17 for a rematch of last year's debacle, and we have to travel to UF on thanksgiving weekend. FSU hasn't won in the swamp since '03. The worst part of the schedule is just how the games line up. We follow thw OU game by having to go on the road to Clemson (:finger: ACC). Later in the year, we face a tough NC St team, and then have to turn around and go on the road to BC on a thursday night just 5 days later. FSU notoriously struggles on thursday night, and the asshats in the ACC continually put us on the road for thursday nighters. We also play miami and UF in a 15 day span with Virginia in between.

 

The pieces are in place for FSU to make a good run this year, but i still think they're about a year off from being a true national title threat. They can win it this year, but i think they will fall just short. Anything less than 10 wins and an ACC title game appearance is an abject failure for the season (barring unforseen catastrophic injuries).

 

My prediction: 10-2 regular season, winning the ACC title game, and an appearance in a BCS bowl.

[Acantha]

Can even get some Penn St representation?

[UConn James]

Can even get some Penn St representation?

 

Well, Lori's not here anymore....

 

Thanks to certain members on the main board who do their lulz and chase away everyone with an iota of knowledge, good sense and decency.

 

*s!

Edited August 30, 2011 by UConn James

[bartshan-83]

Awesome posts, guys! Exactly what I had hoped for. I mean, where else could I get such a detailed analysis of a team like UConn that I would otherwise know very little about. Thanks for taking the time.

 

And agreed that it would be nice to get some PSU love in here. I'm sure there are more of you than anyone else. Is this looking like a .500 year for State or can they make a little noise? I got a season long bet with a buddy of mine: ND wins vs. PSU wins (I gave him +1.5 on the spread). I took him last year (no spread) and I feel confident to repeat. Am I wrong?

 

TWO days from kickoff baby! :w00t:

[KD in CA]

Can even get some Penn St representation?

 

 

Back in the day, you could have mistaken this place for a PSU board there were so many of them around.

[ajzepp]

Being more of an SEC fan than a fan of any one team specifically, I can't go nearly as in-depth as some of you guys can about your favorite teams, but I'll throw out two SEC East teams that I'll be following all season - UGA and South Carolina.

 

Mark Richt set out to have his "dream team" recruiting class, and he pulled it off. Perhaps the jewel of the bunch is Isiah Crowell, one of the highest rated RBs coming out of HS. With the injuries and academic problems that have plagued UGA at the RB spot, Crowell will definitely be counted on early and often to keep the chains moving and to bust off an ESPN highlight here and there. But my biggest reason why UGA will be in the hunt for the SEC East title? Aaron Murray. This kid has all the tools to be a great college QB, and most likely he will transition beautifully into the pros in a few years. His arm isn't quite as strong as his predecessor, Matthew Stafford, but you don't lose much. What you gain over Stafford is a knack for clutch throws and a never-give-up attitude. He doesn't have ideal size as a QB, but he's no Doug Flutie either. He completed over 60% of his passes last season and had a 3:1 TD to INT ratio. All indications are that he developed a nice chemistry with one or two of his wideouts since his top target, AJ Green, is now in Cincy...I have very high expectations for this kid in 2011!

 

As for the Cocks, ever since Lou Holtz coached there I've just been fascinated by their whole program. There is something about the atmosphere of their stadium, particularly during a night game when the fans just get TOTALLY fired up during their traditional entrance...

 

 

But anyway, a lot of people thought they only won the East last year because of the rebuilding that teams like Florida, UGA, and others were going through, but this team has a lot of talent, particularly on offense. They lost a bunch of players from the defensive side of the ball, so they won't be able to rely on a stout D as they have the last few years, but they have some really nice weapons on offense. Stephen Garcia is their Sr. starting QB, and even though he is a bit of a head case, he has been productive in stretches. You've got the best RB in the SEC and one of the best in all of college football, Marcus Lattimore, coming back for his sophmore season, and they also return the best receiver in the SEC, Alshon Jeffrey. This guy is a BIG target with great hands. The Cocks will be a bit more one-sided this season, but they have enough talent to put up points and I expect them to be there in the end.

 

I cannot WAIT!!!!!

[UConn James]

As for the Cocks, ever since Lou Holtz coached there I've just been fascinated by their whole program. There is something about the atmosphere of their stadium, particularly during a night game when the fans just get TOTALLY fired up during their traditional entrance...

 

Hmm. I thought the monoliths were "full of stars!"

 

That is a wicked entrance. We're ten years into D-I and there's nothing even close to that. Used to ban all tailgating that had a heating device of any type in the parking lots, no tossing footballs, no fun. Game-day really suffered from what used to be when the stadium was on-campus in Storrs. (They're evidently going to be tearing down Memorial Stadium to build a basketball-only practice facility). Seems to be getting better in East Hartford, as they've apparently loosened up the rigid regulations judging from pictures in the Hartford Courant.

 

USCarolina has really great programs, especially baseball.

[ajzepp]

Hmm. I thought the monoliths were "full of stars!"

 

That is a wicked entrance. We're ten years into D-I and there's nothing even close to that. Used to ban all tailgating that had a heating device of any type in the parking lots, no tossing footballs, no fun. Game-day really suffered from what used to be when the stadium was on-campus in Storrs. (They're evidently going to be tearing down Memorial Stadium to build a basketball-only practice facility). Seems to be getting better in East Hartford, as they've apparently loosened up the rigid regulations judging from pictures in the Hartford Courant.

 

USCarolina has really great programs, especially baseball.

 

No tossing the football???? That is way over the top, man. If they did that at the Ralph, I'd never go to a game again. I haven't been back home since opening day in '97 against the Vikes (Robert Smith killed us), but it was tradition for my buddy and I to tailgate with some deep out patterns in the parking lot of the Ralph. Ya gotta have good food, good beer, and an official NFL pigskin to toss around in order to have a proper tailgate, IMO.

 

BTW, I have to give E.Carolina a lot of credit last night. They came to play and had SC on their heels almost the entire first half. They played opportunistic defense and their fans were obviously very passionate. There were quite a lot of S.Car fans there too, but the Pirates faithful showed up big time.

 

Aside from the Georgia embarrassment, yesterday was a solid opening Saturday for college ball.