If Poz leaves, will you be upset??

[K-9]

2009: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2009&pos=LB&season=reg

 

2010: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2010&pos=LB&season=reg

 

While Poz dropped off a good bit in 2010, he was second overall in WPA (Win Probability Added) among all linebackers in 2009.

 

"Win Probability Added" explained: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/win-probability-added-wpa-explained.html

 

He was 18th overall in 2008 as well. He's a good player.

 

From the article:

 

Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

 

What am I missing here, Dave? How does this measure Poz one way or the other? It doesn't measure true ability nor is it predictive. Given our poor W/L record how did his play positively impact our "win probabiity?" Does it support the idea that without Poz we would have been worse?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Adam]

Poz's reputation has been bigger than his play IMO, so I wouldn't be sorry to see him walk. I can't remember a big play & his stats are average, so he can help us make 8-8 ball a reality, if we're lucky.

Who would be replacing him, and who is behind that guy? You don't make decisions on what fans want- they are there only to buy tickets, merchandise and mindlessly clap their hands.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Here's two things that keep getting forgotten or ignored in this discussion:

 

1) The Bills best inside linebackers are Poz and Andre Davis.

 

They drafted Kelvin Sheppard and Chris White. Both of them, barring injury will make the final roster this year.

 

The "others" are Keith Ellison, Akin Ayodele (both of whom are free agents), and Jamie Kirlew.

 

2) This is a very weak year for free agent inside linebackers. The consensus is that Poz is the best free agent ILB in this year's class. Short of a cap casualty (Nick Barnett?) there's no one out there better than Poz.

 

 

So what's the simplest way to improve this position?

 

Conclusion: However you feel about Poz, when confronted with these facts, I don't know how one can conclude that getting rid of Poz is a good move for the Bills.

Again… how is getting rid of Poz gonna make the Bills linebacking corps better?

 

No one has been able to explain that logic yet.

 

It's only possible if you can replace him with a better player OR if you can replace one of the other linebackers with a better player.

 

You cannot improve the Bills linebacking corps by replacing Poz with a worse player.

 

So who is this mysterious, unnamed upgrade?

 

Anyone?

 

 

[dave mcbride]

From the article:

 

 

 

What am I missing here, Dave? How does this measure Poz one way or the other? It doesn't measure true ability nor is it predictive. Given our poor W/L record how did his play positively impact our "win probabiity?" Does it support the idea that without Poz we would have been worse?

 

GO BILLS!!!

It's not predictive of future results, technically. But then again, nothing is. That said, I'm guessing that based on past results, Tom Brady will have a good year.

 

Poz is one of 22 starters and no one player has that much of an effect overall on wins (except for the QB and to a lesser extent the LT, RDE, and top CB). I stand by what I said: he's a good player that most teams would be happy to have. He's a genuine NFL starter. Why people are willing to let folks like him go with nothing to replace him with is beyond me.

[Sisyphean Bills]

DrDareustein posts video in an attempt to support his argument.

 

And the response is that the video is underwhelming or even contrary to his point?

 

IMO, the video is strongly supportive of his point… but that's immaterial and I won't debate over this because it's besides the point.

 

The actual point is that it's pretty weak to criticize or question his video argument.

 

How about presenting your own video to rebut his?

 

Dareustein is doing all the work and the response is short, dismissive replies? We have to do better in cases like this.

 

If we can't/won't/don't have the time to present opposing video, we should at least be respectful of his efforts or suspend replies until there's time to make a fair response.

I hope Dareustein didn't break anything posting the link. I didn't realize it was such hard labor.

 

By the way, I'm not the one calling for Poz's head on a platter. Nor am I overreacting the other way and claiming a montage of TV coverage showed Poz was a "great" player. I'm decidedly in the middle on him.

 

Not that you asked in a polite way or anything, but I thought he was going to be an excellent player when they drafted him, but he has been just another guy. Comparing that to a chump like Aaron Maybin makes him not so bad at all, and yes even a valuable asset by comparison to a worthless player. But, I'm not going to hold my breath for him to become "great".

[Sisyphean Bills]

Status quo for the Bills is sucking, NOT being solid. Status quo for the Bills is letting good players walk and not having replacements for them.

 

Sure a team "can" replace average players with better players. But the Bills do not have that option this year. There are no better LBs in FA this year. Who do you suggest we can bring in THIS YEAR to replace Poz?

 

Letting Poz walk and not having a replacement IS MAINTAINING STATUS QUO FOR THE BILLS.

 

If this team EVER wants to improve, they must re-sign their solid players which they drafted. You can NOT turn over positions every 4-5 years because the guy isnt a HoFer. Not re-signing Poz is something the old Bills would have done and that would have kept the tradition of mediocrity alive.

They let a lot of bad players walk as well. They've re-signed their own players: see Evans, Kelsay, McGee. They sign free agents like Dockery and T.O. and others like Pears. They draft guys, develop them, and trade them with or without depth on the roster. Or they cut players outright after investing in them. Or, as you say, the player may sign with someone else.

 

FWIW, when did I say that there was a better free agent this year? And, how do you know that there will be no one better to play as a downhill 3-4 ILB anyway? (They drafted some LBs, so they may already be here.)

 

The real problem you are alluding to is named Ralph Wilson and his inner circle with their quantum flub ups in their hiring pattern. The root cause of why the Bills roster is a revolving door is that the front office and coaching has been a revolving door. Out with the old and in with the new on the management side has caused total reversals and flip-flopping in direction of the team, leading to more roster purges and turnover in a vicious cycle. That's what happens when your company has no corporate memory and no learning and has to start "completely fresh" every few years.

[Mr. WEO]

I'd say that's a classy and accurate way of describing our positions.

 

As to the matter of the "fair" contract, like we discussed last week, I wish I knew what that number is. We'll soon find out.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

Are you feeling ok?

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

^This. Good post.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I call em as I see em, K-9. A great post is a great post. I can be convinced by a convincing argument.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

DrDareustein posts video in an attempt to support his argument.

 

And the response is that the video is underwhelming or even contrary to his point?

 

IMO, the video is strongly supportive of his point… but that's immaterial and I won't debate over this because it's besides the point.

 

The actual point is that it's pretty weak to criticize or question his video argument.

 

How about presenting your own video to rebut his?

 

Dareustein is doing all the work and the response is short, dismissive replies? We have to do better in cases like this.

 

If we can't/won't/don't have the time to present opposing video, we should at least be respectful of his efforts or suspend replies until there's time to make a fair response.

 

I hope Dareustein didn't break anything posting the link. I didn't realize it was such hard labor.

 

By the way, I'm not the one calling for Poz's head on a platter. Nor am I overreacting the other way and claiming a montage of TV coverage showed Poz was a "great" player. I'm decidedly in the middle on him.

 

Not that you asked in a polite way or anything, but I thought he was going to be an excellent player when they drafted him, but he has been just another guy. Comparing that to a chump like Aaron Maybin makes him not so bad at all, and yes even a valuable asset by comparison to a worthless player. But, I'm not going to hold my breath for him to become "great".

 

To the bolded above, is that the same as saying I was rude? Not really understanding that line. Anyways I think my point was pretty simple and clear which is that discussions should be a good faith endeavor. On the other hand I understand that good faith is a utopian idea and a bit too much to hope for in most cases.

 

As for Poz himself, I think he's an average to good player but regardless of that, he's certainly one of our two best inside linebackers.

 

Again… how is getting rid of Poz gonna make the Bills linebacking corps better?

 

No one has been able to explain that logic yet.

 

It's only possible if you can replace him with a better player OR if you can replace one of the other linebackers with a better player.

 

You cannot improve the Bills linebacking corps by replacing Poz with a worse player.

 

So who is this mysterious, unnamed upgrade?

 

Anyone?

Meanwhile no one has attempted to explain how cutting Poz is gonna make the Bills a better team.

Edited July 22, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Yes

 

It's funny that people look past all fitzys interceptions and balls right to the chest of defenders that got dropped, look past all Stevie johnsons drops and shenanigans, forgave lynch when he was a bill, but have the audacity to call for pozs head.

Well after next season you guys wil be wearing the poz probowl edition jersey

Skullz out

No offense, but beyond stupid

 

If we had all 11 guys playing as solidly as Poz, we'd have a top 5 Defense.

I take back my last post Mr/Mrs. Defend Greece This is the stupidest post I've read since the offseason. I apologize

Edited July 22, 2011 by MOVALLEYRANDY

[MattyT]

I haven't read anything in this thread, but yes....I would be upset.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

No offense, but beyond stupid

 

 

I take back my last post Mr/Mrs. Defend Greece This is the stupidest post I've read since the offseason. I apologize

No offense but beyond stupid?

 

Looks like you just raised the bar. Or lowered it.

 

Congratulations on your accomplishment.

 

 

[....lybob]

To the bolded above, is that the same as saying I was rude? Not really understanding that line. Anyways I think my point was pretty simple and clear which is that discussions should be a good faith endeavor. On the other hand I understand that good faith is a utopian idea and a bit too much to hope for in most cases.

 

As for Poz himself, I think he's an average to good player but regardless of that, he's certainly one of our two best inside linebackers.

 

 

Meanwhile no one has attempted to explain how cutting Poz is gonna make the Bills a better team.

Obviously just cutting POZ does not make the team better- but if the money was used elsewhere then maybe that makes the team better, I'd offer POZ and Drayton contracts but I'm not getting into even a little bidding war for either of those players- I wouldn't pay a lot of money for an 3-4 inside LB unless he was all world and POZ ain't that, Drayton is 30 and ok not a core player I'm building around.

 

 

If I was running FA then I'd have one huge signing

Johnathan Joseph CB

 

A few moderate signings Ryan Harris OT, Manny Lawson OLB, an experienced Back up QB

 

a few cheap signings- Mario Harvey ILB, Mark Herzich LB, a College QB

 

A trade with Dallas for Martellus Bennett TE

 

Now if I could do that and sign the rookies and still have Money left over then yeah POZ would get consideration- and Maybe you cut Maybin, Kelsay, McGee, Spencer Johnson but I don't know what the cap ramifications are for any of those players.

[DrDawkinstein]

They let a lot of bad players walk as well. They've re-signed their own players: see Evans, Kelsay, McGee. They sign free agents like Dockery and T.O. and others like Pears. They draft guys, develop them, and trade them with or without depth on the roster. Or they cut players outright after investing in them. Or, as you say, the player may sign with someone else.

 

FWIW, when did I say that there was a better free agent this year? And, how do you know that there will be no one better to play as a downhill 3-4 ILB anyway? (They drafted some LBs, so they may already be here.)

 

The real problem you are alluding to is named Ralph Wilson and his inner circle with their quantum flub ups in their hiring pattern. The root cause of why the Bills roster is a revolving door is that the front office and coaching has been a revolving door. Out with the old and in with the new on the management side has caused total reversals and flip-flopping in direction of the team, leading to more roster purges and turnover in a vicious cycle. That's what happens when your company has no corporate memory and no learning and has to start "completely fresh" every few years.

 

 

 

Well now, I dont disagree with any of this.

 

Especially the last paragraph on where the real problem stems from. But that's a completely different thread...

[RyanC883]

So your argument for keeping "Puz" is that you can't have a Hall of Famer at every position? Underwhelming. As is the "great video" of his average, but hustling, play.

 

Perhaps read my entire argument before posting underwhelming comments. It's a FACT that you can't have a hall of fame player at every position. My argument is that having very good players at other positions, like Puz, is essential. Puz is a good player. Notice how your argument itself is underwhelming in that it fails to address the real criticisms of Puz, that he can't cover guys. He's not supposed to be doing that. The failure here is coaching. Need an example of coaching changing things: Pirates in baseball this year vs. last year. What changed, COACHING. I dare any of you haters to find a MLB would have performed better than Puz with such a pathetic D line and D coordinator. What's that I’m hearing, oh yeah, crickets.

[billsfreak]

While it's true that I have a rookie status I am far from a rookie when it comes to watching football and understanding the game. Poz is simply an average linebacker that rarely makes any plays at the line of scrimmage. The video posted proves just that. Now if my making over 3 thousand posts lends more credibility towards my opinions you will just have to wait a few more years.

Here is the post I replied to that you entered:

 

This is your evidence on the type of player Poz is? I humbly rest my case. Good Lord, man, the guy is just not a very good linebacker.

 

Here is your second post:

 

Poz is simply an average linebacker

 

Wow. They havent even signed a CBA yet and Poz has improved since yesterday? Rookie.

Edited July 22, 2011 by billsfreak

[K-9]

Here is the post I replied to that you entered:

 

This is your evidence on the type of player Poz is? I humbly rest my case. Good Lord, man, the guy is just not a very good linebacker.

 

Here is your second post:

 

Poz is simply an average linebacker

 

Wow. They havent even signed a CBA yet and Poz has improved since yesterday? Rookie.

 

How are "not very good" and "average" diametrically opposed? Talk about splitting hairs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[billsfreak]

How are "not very good" and "average" diametrically opposed? Talk about splitting hairs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I guess only on the Bills is "average" and "not very good" the same thing.

[Scrappy]

I guess only on the Bills is "average" and "not very good" the same thing.

 

The only way this makes sense is saying that the Bills on the average are not very good.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The only way this makes sense is saying that the Bills on the average are not very good.

Hate to say you're right but .469 franchise winning percentage says you're right.

[Rob's House]

This may have been mentioned, but Poz brings more to the table than just his performance on the field. He's essentially the QB of the defense. Granted that in and of itself doesn't necessarily outweigh on field play, but it does make him significantly more valuable than a player equally skilled on the field who doesn't bring the same leadership qualities to the table.