Mark Long Beach Posted July 14, 2011 Posted July 14, 2011 This thread should be retitled "PDadDy argues with everyone over Shawn Merriman, AJ Smith, and the Chargers without looking at reality" Lol! Close. I actually think PdadDy has got most of the details & reality right. I just really disagree with his interpretation of them. Oh, and I guess his unwillingness to see that other peoples points-of-view have any validity. The closest analogy to player drafting & FA market is to a poker tourney. It's all a series of gambles. Some of them are BIG gambles and some are small ones. Hoping to win more than you lose. IF you win a big pot (great player) it can make up for a whole lot of little ones that you lose. Similarly if you win enough little ones it can make up for a big one that you lose. Just like in poker, the best don't always win. The best poker players get bumped off all the time. However they regularly (over time) do a whole lot better than the rest. Same in football player management. Scott Pioli & Bill Polian consistantly got better players for their teams than Matt Millen. While Millen is an easy target, the 29 or so other GM's did varying degrees of worse and occasionally better than both of them. But over time, they've done better than almost everyone else. I'm not worried about one individual gamble. Especially one that I think has high reward potential. We hit on Merriman it makes up for a lot of Erik Greens.
justnzane Posted July 14, 2011 Posted July 14, 2011 Lol! Close. I actually think PdadDy has got most of the details & reality right. I just really disagree with his interpretation of them. Oh, and I guess his unwillingness to see that other peoples points-of-view have any validity. The closest analogy to player drafting & FA market is to a poker tourney. It's all a series of gambles. Some of them are BIG gambles and some are small ones. Hoping to win more than you lose. IF you win a big pot (great player) it can make up for a whole lot of little ones that you lose. Similarly if you win enough little ones it can make up for a big one that you lose. Just like in poker, the best don't always win. The best poker players get bumped off all the time. However they regularly (over time) do a whole lot better than the rest. Same in football player management. Scott Pioli & Bill Polian consistantly got better players for their teams than Matt Millen. While Millen is an easy target, the 29 or so other GM's did varying degrees of worse and occasionally better than both of them. But over time, they've done better than almost everyone else. I'm not worried about one individual gamble. Especially one that I think has high reward potential. We hit on Merriman it makes up for a lot of Erik Greens. Erik Flowers you mean?
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted July 14, 2011 Posted July 14, 2011 Question for PDaDdy: I don't have a dog in this fight, but I'm curious about something. You've made it very clear that you think risking at least $2.5 million in guaranteed money on Merriman was a bad decision, and told us why. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm guessing that, hypothetically, if the Bills could have signed Merriman to a contract with ZERO guaranteed money, so that he could be cut at any time and the Bills would only be on the hook for his pro-rated salary for regular season games he actually played in, that you would be OK with that. In that hypothetical scenario, if he winds up being a bum, we could even cut him in training camp and ultimately pay him no more than any undrafted college free agent who likewise failed to make the final 2011 opening day roster. If my above-described guess is correct (it might not be), that leaves a lot of undefined middle ground. Is there any amount of guaranteed money to Merriman that you would have found to be an acceptable risk? $1? $100k? $500k? $1 million? All I know for sure is that you find a $2.5 million guarantee unacceptable. Your thoughts?
Mark Long Beach Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 Cornell Green? Oops. Yeah, this one. I keep trying to forget him. Apparently I can only half do it.
1B4IDie Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 Question for PDaDdy: I don't have a dog in this fight, but I'm curious about something. You've made it very clear that you think risking at least $2.5 million in guaranteed money on Merriman was a bad decision, and told us why. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm guessing that, hypothetically, if the Bills could have signed Merriman to a contract with ZERO guaranteed money, so that he could be cut at any time and the Bills would only be on the hook for his pro-rated salary for regular season games he actually played in, that you would be OK with that. In that hypothetical scenario, if he winds up being a bum, we could even cut him in training camp and ultimately pay him no more than any undrafted college free agent who likewise failed to make the final 2011 opening day roster. If my above-described guess is correct (it might not be), that leaves a lot of undefined middle ground. Is there any amount of guaranteed money to Merriman that you would have found to be an acceptable risk? $1? $100k? $500k? $1 million? All I know for sure is that you find a $2.5 million guarantee unacceptable. Your thoughts? I understand your point but the numbers are actually I bit different than 2.5 Million that was originally released It's 2.5M if he gets cut in August before the season starts. If he is on the roster for the 2011 Season (and doesn't play) it's actually 5.25 If he is on the roster in 2012 and meets the "2010 injury clause" it's then 8.25 I'm in the "Hey it's only 2.5M I think its worth a gamble crowd." At 5.25M I'm not so gung-ho. Either way I'm not the GM and I don't think the Bills have a salary cap issue so its not likely Merriman is on the roster in place of someone else. Here is the actual article; http://blogs.buffalonews.com/billboard/2011/01/merriman-gets-good-guarantee.html remembering that NFL contracts are not guaranteed and if Merriman is still banged up in 2011 and doesn't get on the field the Bills can cut him after 2011. My Math adds up to this for 2011: 2011 Base = 2.75M (Not Guaranteed) 2010+2011 Bonus = 1M (1.5M bonus amortized over 3 years) Reporting Bonus = .5M "workout" Bonus = .5M Then if he is cut after 2011 season 2012 Bonus hit = .5M So Basically if he is on the regular season roster and doesn't play at all in 2011 he will cost the Bills 5.25M. If he get on the field in 2011, and meets the "2010 injury clause" requirements, he will get an extra 3M in 2012. That's where the 8.25M number over TWO years comes from. If he can't make it through Pre Season and gets cut in August he costs the Bills 2.5M.
PDaDdy Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 The Chargers were so convinced Merriman was washed up that they tried to get him to sign an incentive laden deal as well as tendering him at a $3.2m, 1st and 3rd pick, contract in March, 2010 and they were happy when he finally signed it and ended his holdout before last season. No matter how much you want to dismiss his relationship with AJ Smith as a factor in their decision to let him go, the long, well publicized record of their discord suggests otherwise. The fact that they placed him on injured reserve with a "minor injury" designation and he would have to pass a physical and declared healthy BEFORE they could place him on waivers is also very telling. GO BILLS!!! How did that work out for them? Oh wait....they released him. Guess they already took their "good risk" and deemed it unworthy.
K-9 Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 How did that work out for them? Oh wait....they released him. Guess they already took their "good risk" and deemed it unworthy. Everything the Chargers did flies in the face of your theory that they simply thought he was too washed up due to injury. From the timelines of their contract offers to the fact they had to declare him HEALTHY before they could place him on waivers. I'm not surprised you can't grasp the facts. They aren't convenient for you. GO BILLS!!!
PDaDdy Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 Question for PDaDdy: I don't have a dog in this fight, but I'm curious about something. You've made it very clear that you think risking at least $2.5 million in guaranteed money on Merriman was a bad decision, and told us why. I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I'm guessing that, hypothetically, if the Bills could have signed Merriman to a contract with ZERO guaranteed money, so that he could be cut at any time and the Bills would only be on the hook for his pro-rated salary for regular season games he actually played in, that you would be OK with that. In that hypothetical scenario, if he winds up being a bum, we could even cut him in training camp and ultimately pay him no more than any undrafted college free agent who likewise failed to make the final 2011 opening day roster. If my above-described guess is correct (it might not be), that leaves a lot of undefined middle ground. Is there any amount of guaranteed money to Merriman that you would have found to be an acceptable risk? $1? $100k? $500k? $1 million? All I know for sure is that you find a $2.5 million guarantee unacceptable. Your thoughts? Interesting question indeed. As I have actually said before which people like to ignore is that I can perhaps see why Buddy took the risk but my gut tells me he will never play or won't actually be effective. Given this belief I say the answer is indeed zero as you have suggested I would be ok with. Unfortunately the reality of it is the veteran minimum with plenty of performance and games played based incentives is probably as low as you could go and might be found to be offensive by Merriman. Even that is quite possibly/probably a waste of money as well. I haven't checked out his knee and found that it is miraculously improved since the last 3 years. I don't know if he has gotten his strength, endurance and explosiveness back after getting off the juice. I don't know that he will be the one player that hasn't performed in 3 years to come back to form or even be productive for that matter after all those things. Despite this Buddy did what he did. Hopefully the man knows what he is doing. I am just a loud mouth in real life and on and this internet forum. I respond well to logic but most just wine about my confidence in my opinion when they try to make flawed arguments. We all have our opinions. He's already on the team so I wish him the best for all of our sake. I'm just not optimistic about the outcome and I probably wouldn't have done it if I was GM. Time will tell. My heart hopes I'm wrong but my brain says it's a waste of money. Everything the Chargers did flies in the face of your theory that they simply thought he was too washed up due to injury. From the timelines of their contract offers to the fact they had to declare him HEALTHY before they could place him on waivers. I'm not surprised you can't grasp the facts. They aren't convenient for you. GO BILLS!!! So healthy that he practiced for us for 10 minutes and went on IR for the season after months of rest? I call shenanigans. By the way I haven't looked up the timelines nor have I claimed to. I just know that if the Chargers signed him in March of 2010 and by football time in 2010 he was a Bill...something sounds fishy to me.
PDaDdy Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 AJ Smith is cheap....and Merriman is damaged goods! FIXED!!
K-9 Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 (edited) ... So healthy that he practiced for us for 10 minutes and went on IR for the season after months of rest? I call shenanigans. By the way I haven't looked up the timelines nor have I claimed to. I just know that if the Chargers signed him in March of 2010 [b]and by football time in 2010 he was a Bill[/b]...something sounds fishy to me. Have you ever thought about publishing your own calendar? GO BILLS!!! Edited July 15, 2011 by K-9
PDaDdy Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 (edited) The Chargers were so convinced Merriman was washed up that they tried to get him to sign an incentive laden deal as well as tendering him at a $3.2m, 1st and 3rd pick, contract in March, 2010 and they were happy when he finally signed it and ended his holdout before last season. GO BILLS!!! http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5771092 So he joined mid season 2010. Big Whoop. I honestly forgot because he never played a down for us. You got me on that one. Please feel free to celebrate your small victory. I have to give you something seeing as how you have been wrong about everything else that oh...actually matters. Grow up. Edited July 15, 2011 by PDaDdy
K-9 Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=5771092 So he joined mid season 2010. Big Whoop. I honestly forgot because he never played a down for us. You got me on that one. Please feel free to celebrate your small victory. I have to give you something seeing as how you have been wrong about everything else that oh...actually matters. You honestly forgot he never played a down for us? I could have sworn you posted these exact words in post #169 above: "So healthy that he practiced for us for 10 minutes and went on IR for the season after months of rest?" Nice try. As for celebrating any small victory, I'm afraid I just can't. Where's the honor in it? It's like playing chess with Lenny. But I'm pretty sure Lenny always new what year it was. GO BILLS!!!
PDaDdy Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 (edited) As for celebrating any small victory, I'm afraid I just can't. Where's the honor in it? GO BILLS!!! I figure it's all you got. You may as well go with it. Keep it classy! What year is it again? lol. Edited July 15, 2011 by PDaDdy
Koufax Posted July 15, 2011 Posted July 15, 2011 What in Merriman's performance in the last 3 years gives you optimism? Love your signature by the way. Dareus hasn't played a down yet but so far Carolina is my second favorite team. His ratio of health to play. I've followed every detail of his soap opera here in San Diego, and the injuries he has dealt with make his performance to be expected. If you have medical reasons to think that he can't get healthy at all despite being 27 years old with only 60 games of wear and tear in his career, then you would be right that the 2.5 million gamble won't pay off. But I would be happy to sign him at double that based on my understanding of his play and his injuries. Maybe he is a Bob Sanders and will always break down, or maybe he had a rough patch of a couple injuries, and will get healthy and be healthy over the next few years. I love our return on investment even if he has a 50/50 chance of being healthy. And to respond to your question. What in Merriman's performance when healthy gives you pessimism? The gamble is not on the ability or the steroids or anything else. It is just what you think the chances are he will be healthy this year, and I think just about as good as any of our other linebackers, and am happy to have him, because healthy his is the best LB we have. And if healthy and playing behind Dareus/Williams/Carrington, I think he will tackle some opponents and do his silly little dance.
PDaDdy Posted July 16, 2011 Posted July 16, 2011 His ratio of health to play. I've followed every detail of his soap opera here in San Diego, and the injuries he has dealt with make his performance to be expected. If you have medical reasons to think that he can't get healthy at all despite being 27 years old with only 60 games of wear and tear in his career, then you would be right that the 2.5 million gamble won't pay off. But I would be happy to sign him at double that based on my understanding of his play and his injuries. Maybe he is a Bob Sanders and will always break down, or maybe he had a rough patch of a couple injuries, and will get healthy and be healthy over the next few years. I love our return on investment even if he has a 50/50 chance of being healthy. And to respond to your question. What in Merriman's performance when healthy gives you pessimism? The gamble is not on the ability or the steroids or anything else. It is just what you think the chances are he will be healthy this year, and I think just about as good as any of our other linebackers, and am happy to have him, because healthy his is the best LB we have. And if healthy and playing behind Dareus/Williams/Carrington, I think he will tackle some opponents and do his silly little dance. Getting beyond the theoretical issues I have with spending the money on him he is already on the team. He signed. We can't change the past. I hope you are right and it was nagging injuries and things that he can work beyond that have impacted his ability to stay healthy, get on the field and actually perform unlike the last 3 years. This is what gives me pessimism. We will all have to wait and see.
BillsVet Posted July 16, 2011 Posted July 16, 2011 In all likelihood, Merriman signed with Buffalo when no other team offered guaranteed money. And if 31 other teams' pro scouting departments aren't keen on the player, it has to make one wonder why the Bills would take a chance and guarantee dollars. 2.5M may not sound like a lot with a cap of 120M and teams prospectively required to spend let's say 108. OTOH, Buffalo has fewer resources to call on during this rebuild, and Nix' track record in evaluating pro personnel while Bills GM so far hasn't been very good. The burden is on Nix, in essence because he's gambling precious few resources that could be spent improving a very weak roster on a guy with 4 sacks in the last 4 seasons. I would also add that a healthy but ineffective Merriman keeps guys like Moats and Batten from getting game experience because Buffalo can't afford to take their high profile signing off the field. That would be admitting they made another bad personnel decision and prevent the staff from finding out if some of their late round picks are indeed starting worthy.
eball Posted July 16, 2011 Posted July 16, 2011 In all likelihood, Merriman signed with Buffalo when no other team offered guaranteed money. And if 31 other teams' pro scouting departments aren't keen on the player, it has to make one wonder why the Bills would take a chance and guarantee dollars. 2.5M may not sound like a lot with a cap of 120M and teams prospectively required to spend let's say 108. OTOH, Buffalo has fewer resources to call on during this rebuild, and Nix' track record in evaluating pro personnel while Bills GM so far hasn't been very good. The burden is on Nix, in essence because he's gambling precious few resources that could be spent improving a very weak roster on a guy with 4 sacks in the last 4 seasons. I would also add that a healthy but ineffective Merriman keeps guys like Moats and Batten from getting game experience because Buffalo can't afford to take their high profile signing off the field. That would be admitting they made another bad personnel decision and prevent the staff from finding out if some of their late round picks are indeed starting worthy. I call bull-stojan on this statement. Nothing about the Nix/Gailey regime suggests they keep "healthy but ineffective" players on the field to save face. Trent Edwards was healthy, and benching/cutting him just two weeks into the season after anointing him the clear-cut starter was hardly a move to "save face." I know you have absolutely no confidence in anything the Bills' organization participates in, but you could try to not make stuff up. If Merriman is effective, he'll play. If he isn't, he won't.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted July 17, 2011 Posted July 17, 2011 The article is nonsense, Highlighted by this sentence: So if he reaches the incentives of 9.25 million that he would in fact not be "done." If he doesn't reach the incentives then it's not a lot of coin. If it wasn't the Bills the article could read, "Bills GM makes shrewd move in signing Merriman. Merriman has to prove it on the field in order to see the money on payday." eaxctly
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