K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 If Merriman ends up earning all this "wasted" money he will have been better than ANY free agent set to hit the open market AND he will have been a steal at 9.25 over two years. Especially considering he will have met a critical need at a vital defensive position. Our LBs were the worst set in the league last year. In the meantime, the money he's set to earn has NO bearing on the Bills' ability to sign or not sign ANY other free agent out there. Win for the Bills, win for Merriman if it pans out. Minimal risk to the Bills if it doesn't. Why that isn't readily apparent to some around here isn't surprising. GO BILLS!!!
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 If Merriman ends up earning all this "wasted" money he will have been better than ANY free agent set to hit the open market AND he will have been a steal at 9.25 over two years. Especially considering he will have met a critical need at a vital defensive position. Our LBs were the worst set in the league last year. In the meantime, the money he's set to earn has NO bearing on the Bills' ability to sign or not sign ANY other free agent out there. Win for the Bills, win for Merriman if it pans out. Minimal risk to the Bills if it doesn't. Why that isn't readily apparent to some around here isn't surprising. GO BILLS!!! What is surprising to me is that people have no concept of invested money, risk of investment, expected return and the salary cap. People look at the money we are giving Merriman in a vacuum and can't see that it could be spent elsewhere on lower risk player investments with much much much more reliable expected results. That money could be the little extra we have to pay to get a difference maker to come to Buffalo. I honestly have no clue as to why that concept is apparently beyond some people. If you like the gamble on Merriman and wanted to forgo a more sure return on our investment in another healthy young proven performer, just say that. Don't say it doesn't matter though. That is just wrong.
T master Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 Bucky Brooks is lousy reporter offering very little new insight into the draft and current players. Merriman may be a flop but I think Nix is taking a justifiable risk on a player that just a few years ago (and pre-steroid testing) was a playmaker. Now, re-signing Kelsay to that absurd extension is the type of move that should get a GM fired. Just sayin' If Bucky is as good of a reporter as he was a WR his career wil be woefully short !!
justnzane Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 BUCKY IS ,WAS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PUNK.. HE WAS A LOUSY NFL PLAYER AND HIS MEDIA CAREER IS DONE WITH THE SAME QUALITY AS HIS PLAYING WAS .THE COMMENTS HE MAKES AS SIMPLY PARROTED FROM MANY OTHERS THAT ARE AS IGNORANT IN CONTENT AS HIS.. shh, I have kids sleeping...
K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) What is surprising to me is that people have no concept of invested money, risk of investment, expected return and the salary cap. People look at the money we are giving Merriman in a vacuum and can't see that it could be spent elsewhere on lower risk player investments with much much much more reliable expected results. That money could be the little extra we have to pay to get a difference maker to come to Buffalo. I honestly have no clue as to why that concept is apparently beyond some people. If you like the gamble on Merriman and wanted to forgo a more sure return on our investment in another healthy young proven performer, just say that. Don't say it doesn't matter though. That is just wrong. Nobody is looking at the risk of Merriman in a vacuum. Except perhaps those who've already made up their minds about him and want to further a tired agenda. Sure Merriman's "risk" could be spent elsewhere. But Merriman's risk offers a far higher potential reward. You want low risk/low reward. Merriman represents low risk/high reward. So you can take the safe route and get those "more reliable expected results" (whatever the hell that means in pro football) or you can take that same investment and shoot for a huge payoff. If you are happy playing the penny stocks, great. Have fun. As to your contention that Merriman's contract could prevent us from signing an "impact" FA, that is the epitome of looking at an issue in a vacuum. Unless of course you've already completed an in-depth study of the Bills' current payroll structure relative to the entire roster AND have knowledge of the new CBA and it's impact on the salary cap and floor. GO BILLS!!! Edited July 13, 2011 by K-9
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) Nobody is looking at the risk of Merriman in a vacuum. Except perhaps those who've already made up their minds about him and want to further a tired agenda. Sure Merriman's "risk" could be spent elsewhere. But Merriman's risk offers a far higher potential reward. You want low risk/low reward. Merriman represents low risk/high reward. So you can take the safe route and get those "more reliable expected results" (whatever the hell that means in pro football) or you can take that same investment and shoot for a huge payoff. If you are happy playing the penny stocks, great. Have fun. GO BILLS!!! Let's keep this going we might get somewhere. I'll define what I mean and you can define what you mean. "More reliable expected results" refers to high performance, healthy players that are at the top of their game right now. Example: Tyson Clabo, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss etc. It is 95% likely that these players would come in and perform at their high if not probowl level. It means that they will continue to have the same qualitative and statistically quantitative performance they have had for the last few years. I have defined what I meant and given a percentage likelihood of them attaining that level of performance. Can you do the same for Merriman or will you just continue to say I am wrong whatever I say? Edited July 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 Let's keep this going we might get somewhere. I'll define what I mean and you can define what you mean. "More reliable expected results" refers to high performance, healthy players that are at the top of their game right now. Example: Tyson Clabo, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss etc. It is 95% likely that these players would come in and perform at their high if not probowl level. It means that they will continue to have the same qualitative and statistically quantitative performance they have had for the last few years. I have defined what I meant and given a percentage likelihood of them attaining that level of performance. Can you do the same for Merriman or will you just continue to say I am wrong whatever I say? I'll only say this: if Merriman ends up earning the entire amount of his contract over the next two seasons, he will have returned to his previous "high performance" level. That means performing at an All Pro level like he did previously. That will mean he will be better than ANY free agent set to hit the market this season and a steal at the money he's getting. But I thought I already said that. Percentages simply can't be applied to this argument. But historical precedent can, perhaps. I won't go back throughout the entire history of FAgency and there are several examples of players that continued to perform at high levels. But there are just as many that didn't. Or was that only 95% of Albert Haynesworth last season. GO BILLS!!!
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) I'll only say this: if Merriman ends up earning the entire amount of his contract over the next two seasons, he will have returned to his previous "high performance" level. That means performing at an All Pro level like he did previously. That will mean he will be better than ANY free agent set to hit the market this season and a steal at the money he's getting. But I thought I already said that. Percentages simply can't be applied to this argument. But historical precedent can, perhaps. I won't go back throughout the entire history of FAgency and there are several examples of players that continued to perform at high levels. But there are just as many that didn't. Or was that only 95% of Albert Haynesworth last season. GO BILLS!!! As expected you haven't said anything. You are obviously reluctant to make any sort of statement what so ever because deep down you realize I am right and it is very likely that Merriman is a waste of money that could be spent elsewhere. Not that you care about my respect but I would have had a lot more for you if you took a stand and gave any sort of prediction at all. You are acting like a person who doesn't believe their own point they're attempting assert and are just arguing for the sake of arguing. PDADDY: "Hey K-9 who do you think will win the game?" K-9: "If team `A` scores more points they will win the game" Thanks for those steaming nuggets of wisdom!!! Edited July 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
eball Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 No I understand exactly what a crap shoot is. Sort of like buying lottery tickets as a retirement plan. Instead of investing in a high risk stock why not put your money in a nice effective predictable plan for success IE getting solid well above average free agents? What makes me think that Meriiman's contract precludes us from signing a FA, specifically an impact or probowl FA? Quite simply the salary cap. We can only spend so much money according to league rules. Look it up sometime. I have only stated and maintained all along that the money we are likely wasting on Merriman, in this crap shoot as you call it, could make the difference between getting a player that is not a gamble and would be as much of a guaranteed plug and play upgrade as you can get. Your premise is flawed, PDaDdy, and I've really grown tired of arguing. There's no indication Merriman's contract has hamstrung the Bills with respect to going after other FAs. The lottery ticket analogy is also misplaced. At this point let's simply agree to disagree. I think we both "hope" Merriman lives up to the contract and then some.
K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) As expected you haven't said anything. You are obviously reluctant to make any sort of statement what so ever because deep down you realize I am right and it is very likely that Merriman is a waste of money that could be spent elsewhere. Not that you care about my respect but I would have had a lot more for you if you took a stand and gave any sort of prediction at all. You are acting like a person who doesn't believe their own point they're attempting assert and are just arguing for the sake of arguing. PDADDY: "Hey K-9 who do you think will win the game?" K-9: "If team `A` scores more points they will win the game" Thanks for those steaming nuggets of wisdom!!! P.S. Haynesworth? Please! 4 - 3 penetrating tackle at the end of his career playing as an anchoring 3 - 4 NT. What did you think would happen? WTF is your problem? Reluctant to make any sort of statement? I have. Seven ways to Sunday. Do you want me to pull percentages out of my ass like you? Can't do that when it's not based on anything but whimsy. "If" is all ANYBODY can say at this point. Only a fool would make statements of certitude when nobody can predict the future. You seem preoccupied with who's right and wrong much of the time. I have no fear at all of Merriman not being able to play again. Zip. Natta. Nothin. If he does, great. If not, unlike you, I won't be mad at the Bills for making a low risk/high reward attempt. You can pretend that his contract has these dire salary cap consequences. It doesn't. If Clabo, Boss, etc. sign elsewhere you can imagine it's because we didn't have the cap room because of Merriman's contract. That won't be the reason. And Haynesworth is the perfect example. He was the most sought after FA in his class. Perhaps ever. Certainly thought of as the most dominant DT in the game. End of his career? Wrong. Not even close. What did I think would happen playing in a 34? Nothing at the time. Please show me your predictions of him failing BEFORE he played in DC. Otherwise you are just parroting the uninformed opinion of the talking you heads you get your news from. And by the way, him not being able to play NT in a 34 is pure BS. If he wanted to he could be one of the best ever. He didn't/doesn't want to. I could trot out numerous other examples of FA busts who never quite attained that "95%" you came up with but sometimes the most obvious example is the best way to illustrate a point. It seems many of your posts devolve into these types of arguments. If someone opposes your opinion you tend to get very defensive about who's right and who's wrong. You tend to condescend to the point of insult. GO BILLS!!! Edited July 13, 2011 by K-9
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 (edited) Your premise is flawed, PDaDdy, and I've really grown tired of arguing. There's no indication Merriman's contract has hamstrung the Bills with respect to going after other FAs. The lottery ticket analogy is also misplaced. At this point let's simply agree to disagree. I think we both "hope" Merriman lives up to the contract and then some. My premise is in no way flawed and it couldn't be simpler. Hamstrung is your word. Impact and "difference" are mine. Seeing as how it's my assertion I think Merriman's contract impacting other potential free agent signings is quite clear. Quite simply money spent on any player can't be spent on another player. You can argue how much impact that money could have made but the concept is in no way up for discussion. It's the NFL system. You either get the salary cap, money could be spent on healthy players in their prime concept or you don't. I have grown tired of trying to explain it and it's importance. On "hope" we agree. Merriman is already under contract. My heart gives me "hope" that he will play for the Bills at some point and more importantly that he is effective. My head unfortunately tells me that it is likely a pipe dream. Edited July 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
RyanC883 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 Let's keep this going we might get somewhere. I'll define what I mean and you can define what you mean. "More reliable expected results" refers to high performance, healthy players that are at the top of their game right now. Example: Tyson Clabo, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss etc. It is 95% likely that these players would come in and perform at their high if not probowl level. It means that they will continue to have the same qualitative and statistically quantitative performance they have had for the last few years. I have defined what I meant and given a percentage likelihood of them attaining that level of performance. Can you do the same for Merriman or will you just continue to say I am wrong whatever I say? And none of those players will be signed for 2.5 million a year. You simply cannot get a potential stud for that amount. At worst, Merriman ends up being an average LB, which is what you would get on the open mkt for what the Bills are committed to paying him. On the other hand, you also have someone who can be a stud.
stony Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 Let's keep this going we might get somewhere. I'll define what I mean and you can define what you mean. "More reliable expected results" refers to high performance, healthy players that are at the top of their game right now. Example: Tyson Clabo, Zach Miller, Kevin Boss etc. It is 95% likely that these players would come in and perform at their high if not probowl level. It means that they will continue to have the same qualitative and statistically quantitative performance they have had for the last few years. I have defined what I meant and given a percentage likelihood of them attaining that level of performance. Can you do the same for Merriman or will you just continue to say I am wrong whatever I say? You're seriously entertaining the notion that this money would be invested on the likes of Clabo, Miller, and Boss? I'll give you a percentage likelihood that an offer is made on any one of those players. 0%. I understand what you're suggesting in relation to Merriman, but there's no way we're going after those players.
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 And none of those players will be signed for 2.5 million a year. You simply cannot get a potential stud for that amount. At worst, Merriman ends up being an average LB, which is what you would get on the open mkt for what the Bills are committed to paying him. On the other hand, you also have someone who can be a stud. Don't mean to be a jerk but read the rest of the thread first! We have already addressed this assertion of yours. We won't sigb anyone for $2.5 million but an extra $1, $2, $2.5 million can make the difference between a difference maker and a roster spot holder. You're seriously entertaining the notion that this money would be invested on the likes of Clabo, Miller, and Boss? I'll give you a percentage likelihood that an offer is made on any one of those players. 0%. I understand what you're suggesting in relation to Merriman, but there's no way we're going after those players. For all either of us know you could be right. However you could obviously be wrong as well. AT BEST we will know the answer when the strike ends and free agency begins. If we are lucky enough to hear news that we are pursing those guys then we will know it might have made a difference. If we don't hear anything unfortunately it just means we didn't hear anything because not every suitor for a free agent is known to the public. If Buddy were to come out and say ..."Hey, we're aren't pursuing any free agents and I'm catching up on some sleep" then we'll know that it wouldn't have mattered for free agency. Part of my point however is that EVERY dollar spent matters! Whether it be signing a free agent or resigning your own good players. Every single penny matters.
K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 Don't mean to be a jerk but read the rest of the thread first! We have already addressed this assertion of yours. We won't sigb anyone for $2.5 million but an extra $1, $2, $2.5 million can make the difference between a difference maker and a roster spot holder. So the Bills can't afford or won't spend the extra $2.5m on a "difference maker" because of the Merriman contract? I'm glad you aren't guilty of viewing the Merriman contract in the same vacuum you accuse everyone else of viewing it through. GO BILLS!!!
PDaDdy Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 So the Bills can't afford or won't spend the extra $2.5m on a "difference maker" because of the Merriman contract? I'm glad you aren't guilty of viewing the Merriman contract in the same vacuum you accuse everyone else of viewing it through. GO BILLS!!! Thank you. No problem. The fact that I can think outside of Merriman's contract, or anyone else's for that matter Kelsay *cough* *cough*, is the definition of not looking at things in a vacuum. I can see the potential impact of the contract beyond the risk reward value that some people see myopically looking at Merriman's deal. You have just learned one of the cardinal rules of TSW debate, namely... 'Never argue with an idiot - they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!' Ah ...he's back contributing nothing but a dissenting opinion without enlightening anyone. Good to see you found a reason to get out of bed this morning.
K-9 Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 You have just learned one of the cardinal rules of TSW debate, namely... 'Never argue with an idiot - they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience!' Been that way since the old RaChaCha D&C days, hasn't it Senator? I don't think he's an idiot. I think he's entrenched in his thinking and over-commits to a predetermined point of view regardless of viewpoints to the contrary. This gets him frustrated and then he trots out his condescending retorts, attacks your grammar, or accuses you of "man-love" for a player or other such sophomoric responses. I chalk that up to simple immaturity. You'd think I'd have learned my lesson from previous threads and debates with this guy. Guess that makes me the idiot. GO BILLS!!! GO BILLS!!!
yungmack Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 This is growing tedious. Both of you have well-stated your beliefs and nothing further said is going to change either of your opinions. So, one of you has to elect to stop the exchange. A couple of things that should be considered is that there should be more money for FAs and current roster players because a rookie cap is most certainly going to be a part of the settlement. And secondly, while we all focus on the salary CAP, there's also a salary FLOOR, which is the minimum a team can spend on players. From what I've heard, this will be RAISED under the new CBA. Combine that with the money saved under the rookie cap, and I'd guess the Merriman signing won't make a dent in the Bills ability to go after FAs (although they might be better off using any "windfall" money to shore up the contracts of current players). FWIW, after following this thread, I come down on the side that the Merriman signing makes great sense, with the potential payoff being worth the (relatively) small risk.
Mark Long Beach Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 We have already addressed this assertion of yours. We won't sigb anyone for $2.5 million but an extra $1, $2, $2.5 million can make the difference between a difference maker and a roster spot holder. I really, REALLY disagree with this statement. You MIGHT get a better player for that $1-2.5 mil. (key word might) But you almost certainly won't get a difference maker. This is why many of us are completely at peace with the Merriman signing. Sure it's money that could be invested elsewhere, but the amount is relatively small compared to the likelyhood of finding a stud player. $2.5m invested in Merriman is more likely to find a stud than 2.5m towards another player. Yes it means we could offer $5.5 mil instead of 3mil to a free agent. The difference between a 3mil & a 5.5mil free agent player will not find a STUD player vs a roster spot holder. With Merriman it might. How likely? What percentage? Who knows. But SM has shown that he can be one of the better players in the league. If his body holds together, he might be again. That's a good gamble for a mere 2.5 mil.
RuntheDamnBall Posted July 13, 2011 Posted July 13, 2011 I love that what's really just an out-and-out gamble, becomes a desperation move just because it's the Bills that made it. If Belicheck signed Merriman, this would be called a great "low-risk, high reward" signing - which is exactly what it is. If Merriman signed in NE and put up even average production, we'd be reminded of their genius at finding great role players on a budget. Sports media coverage is so much noise meant to prop up the egos of the big markets and moneymakers. Edit: or, what Promo said.
Recommended Posts