Talent evaluation in the NFL

[spartacus]

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2011/05/08/evaluating-the-evaluator/

 

This article describes the process typically used in the NFL to scout and evaluate talent.

 

It seems the "process" of the scouting system and the lack of direction the scouts are given in evaluating talent for that specific team may be the root of the Bills problem in stocking their team with NFL quality talent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nanker]

Nothing new there. If you want to really uncover what scouting is about, you'd become a disciple of THE scouting guru of all time. You'd also find the underpinnings of how the most successful NFL franchises and collegiate programs flourish year after year.

 

This is one reason I'm a fan of Buddy Nix. He's put a real system in place and has assembled a team of his scouts to use it.

 

 

Links not provided. Do your own research. You'll be all the better for it.

[BillsVet]

Nothing new there. If you want to really uncover what scouting is about, you'd become a disciple of THE scouting guru of all time. You'd also find the underpinnings of how the most successful NFL franchises and collegiate programs flourish year after year.

 

This is one reason I'm a fan of Buddy Nix. He's put a real system in place and has assembled a team of his scouts to use it.

 

 

Links not provided. Do your own research. You'll be all the better for it.

 

To your point about a "real system in place." I'm not sure many teams would draft a RB with their first round pick in the first draft of rebuilding. That decision indicates to me that their plan is not as structured as some believe so fervently.

 

Buddy Nix gives great quotes, but his skill in A) rebuilding franchises and B) find top personnel evaluators and a HC is very much in doubt. I frankly don't see a plan, except them saying it takes 3-4 years.

[maryland-bills-fan]

I like how they took their LB this year. Chan worked with him in the Senior Bowl and got to see him in practices for a week.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Nothing new there. If you want to really uncover what scouting is about, you'd become a disciple of THE scouting guru of all time. You'd also find the underpinnings of how the most successful NFL franchises and collegiate programs flourish year after year.

 

This is one reason I'm a fan of Buddy Nix. He's put a real system in place and has assembled a team of his scouts to use it.

He hired Moody to back fill his own position and Whaley (whom he hadn't worked with and wouldn't pass the sniff test of being "his scout") to fill Guy's open job and kept the rest of the scouting department pretty much the same, with all the same people. So much for assembling your own team from the start.

 

Though perhaps your "real system" point is that Modrak was fired immediately after the second draft in which the Bills selected every player from the South (while Modrak had spent most of last year scouting a QB in Missouri). Perhaps taking 16 months to form evaluations is the "real system" and not just for players.

Links not provided. Do your own research. You'll be all the better for it.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Thanks for posting. I found it interesting.

 

I remember the Dave Razzano article alluded to in the article, which was also a good read.

 

I thought this statement was pretty interesting:

 

"Another former scout of an AFC East team said he saw his peers paraphrase material from print and Internet publications to complete his scouting reports."

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Finished reading that article.

 

The author makes some legit points although the article is a bit of a sales pitch too.

 

Waldeman comes from corporate culture as a former operations manager and he's suggesting that NFL clubs use "quality-driven processes" and "best practices methodologies" to achieve better scouting performance. Basically he's advocating a Fortune 500 approach to scouting.

 

I thought this was interesting:

 

Typical NFL Prospect Grading Scale

 

• 9.00 - A player for the ages (Jim Brown).
• 8.00-8.99 – A perennial All-Pro.
• 7.50 – 7.99 – Future All-Pro.
• 7.00-7.49 - Pro-Bowl-caliber potential.
• 6.50-6.99 – First-round-caliber player with Pro Bowl potential.
• 6.00-6.49 - Potential to become a quality NFL starter.
• 5.50-5.99 - Potential starter and likely first-day pick.
• 5.10-5.49 – Potential to make an NFL roster and contribute.
• 5.01-5.09 – Has a better than 50/50 chance to make a roster.
• 5.00 – Has an even chance to make a roster.
• 4.75-4.99 – Training camp player.
• 4.50-4.74 – Potential invitee to an NFL training camp.
• 4.00-4.49 – Needs developmental time in another league.

 

vs.

 

This is the kind of variation that can be corrected with a good process, which:

 

• Defines specifically in writing what the team values in players.
• Defines which settings scouts can use to grade players.
• Clearly defines a grading system.
• Uses a system that incorporates all skills and techniques that a team wants to see from its prospects into the grading system.
• Prioritizes the importance of those skills and techniques with a weighted score the contributes to the overall evaluation.
• Scores players as only meeting or not meeting expectations of those scoring criteria rather than using a highly subjective number system.

 

One thing his criteria reminds me of is the discussion of the Bills 4th rounder, offensive tackle Chris Hairston from Clemson.

 

The Bills addressed points 2 and 4 above when they stated that they liked Hairston a lot because like NFL tackles, he is very accustomed to operating out of a 3-point stance as opposed to many college tackles who come from spread offenses. Apparently these days, many college OTs never put their hand on the ground. In the NFL tackles operate out of a 3-point stance as much as possible to disguise whether the play is a run or a pass. Usually only in obvious passing situations do tackles set in a 2-point stance.

[Coach Tuesday]

To your point about a "real system in place." I'm not sure many teams would draft a RB with their first round pick in the first draft of rebuilding. That decision indicates to me that their plan is not as structured as some believe so fervently.

 

Buddy Nix gives great quotes, but his skill in A) rebuilding franchises and B) find top personnel evaluators and a HC is very much in doubt. I frankly don't see a plan, except them saying it takes 3-4 years.

 

I don't like the pick either but I believe the concept/system is the following: the cupboard was bare with respect to legitimate playmakers on the roster whom the other side has to account for on every play, so take the best playmaker in college football. The results last season were less than stellar but there is plenty of time for CJ to turn that around.

[Nanker]

To your point about a "real system in place." I'm not sure many teams would draft a RB with their first round pick in the first draft of rebuilding. That decision indicates to me that their plan is not as structured as some believe so fervently.

 

Buddy Nix gives great quotes, but his skill in A) rebuilding franchises and B) find top personnel evaluators and a HC is very much in doubt. I frankly don't see a plan, except them saying it takes 3-4 years.

 

The topic is having a Scouting system, BV. Decisions on whom to draft are more complex than identifying the best college talent.

 

He hired Moody to back fill his own position and Whaley (whom he hadn't worked with and wouldn't pass the sniff test of being "his scout") to fill Guy's open job and kept the rest of the scouting department pretty much the same, with all the same people. So much for assembling your own team from the start.

 

Though perhaps your "real system" point is that Modrak was fired immediately after the second draft in which the Bills selected every player from the South (while Modrak had spent most of last year scouting a QB in Missouri). Perhaps taking 16 months to form evaluations is the "real system" and not just for players.

 

 

Not sure what your point is about Whaley. He did hire him IIRC and he was the Pro scout, i.e., scouting upcoming opponents. Now he's also in charge of collating the College scouting reports as well as doing college scouting.

Nix also hired scouts Tom Gibbons away from SD to be the Pro Personnel Director, and Chuck Cook away from KC to be Director of College Scouting. Some more interesting reading.

 

But the system is Buddy's system. You don't get to rise up the scouting ranks in the NFL if you have no system. There are dozens of systems and tools for charting. This is fundamental. To suggest Nix and The Bills staff have no system is foolish. If you don't know what scouting is about, I suggest you do some reading and perhaps start with the father of the Devil himself, who wrote the seminal tome on the craft which el Diablo learned and began practicing by age 11.

[Hplarrm]

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2011/05/08/evaluating-the-evaluator/

 

This article describes the process typically used in the NFL to scout and evaluate talent.

 

It seems the "process" of the scouting system and the lack of direction the scouts are given in evaluating talent for that specific team may be the root of the Bills problem in stocking their team with NFL quality talent

This whole thing strikes me as too clever by half.

 

There is a human tendency to try to reduce complex multi-factorial influenced systems down to formulaic actions which be not only understood but replicated in any situation.

 

However, life does not work that way.

 

This is not to say that one should not try to understand what is happening through systemic analysis. One should.

 

However, methinks the way to achieve success is not through some formulaic application but in using this formulaic approach to "merely" establish a common language so that a large group of people can talk about what they are doing and compare notes intelligently so they can actually abandon the formula and do the right thing in a particular case.

 

Success is found not in how you follow the formula but success is found in how particular individuals at particular times abandon the formula and simply do the right thing at the right time.

 

This formulaic approach laid out in the article strikes me as on the face if it falling short in a number of specific areas.

 

1. Timing of the evaluation period. One can look at the great ones like a Gretzky perform at a very young age (pre-teen) and see that he is going to be a great athlete as an adult. However, this is the outside rarity and young men at the age of 18-21 where the lionshare of direct evaluation and at least stats can be collected is still a time of mental changes and even physical growth spurts which can change adult output significantly. Even these changes can be predicted in a large total group. A good scout like any seasoned professional either tends not to be wrong in huge ways or at least can offer a prediction and give one a reasonable level of confidence that their prediction is right.

 

However, even with these caveats there is simply significant variation which no rote system if going to reduce beyond significance.

 

2. What happens in life matters.

 

Things happen in life which unfortunately have the most significant impact on whether a players succeeds or not. No system or formula is going to predict whether a player is going to get in a car accident, slip in the shower, impregnate some gal or something that is going to be the primary impact on whether a player succeeds or not. Once again, in general no specific things is going to happen for sure to an athlete and also virtually guaranteed there will be some setback and a good scout shakes the hand of a prospect and measures how they will deal with some adversity that is bound to happen.

 

Yet, there is the Mike Williams example of a Bills draftee who had significant questions (his great numbers came as a college RT protecting the blindside of a left handed passer and we almost certainly needed him to switch to LT) but he in fact had a productive rookie year as a Bill. Yet, in his sophomore year the grandmother that raised him as a son died. He reasonably got excused in the off-season. Perhaps when Jauron shook his hand he could have judged Williams would not deal well with any likely adversity. Who knows maybe he was a jerk from word one, but the actual fact is the death of the woman who raised him coincided with a juvenile response to this tragedy and he put on a ton of weight and failed to work all off-season.

 

Ironically, he proved to be quite maliable and Mouse MacNally did a masterful job of carrot and sticking him to a point that he was awarded a game ball in his third season for an outstanding game (by both objective measures of him being beaten and a widely held subjective judgment that he did a good job against a talented opponent. However, he failed badly overall and was a bust.

 

This factor can be somewhat judged but overall reality sometimes defies systems.

 

3. The key is not simply how good a players is but how well he plays with others.

 

Again this can be judged to some extent, but overall every year is a new year with new challenges and possibilities. A good scout must be able to convey a lot more that the mere static information of the rating system included. Sports is actually a lot of fun because it lends itself to generating tons of stats, but the stats prove to be mere indicators of performance at best and sometimes flat out wrong. If demographics were determinative Doug Flutie would never lead a team to victory. If drills and measures of speed were determinative then Aaron Maybin would be a pro-bowler. If even stats were determinative Eric Moulds would have been a bust after his first two years (he also would have gracefully retired when Evans proved to be a better go to guy than him.

 

Again one can predict and not be always wrong but overall the statistical analysis leaves me cold.

[BillsVet]

The topic is having a Scouting system, BV. Decisions on whom to draft are more complex than identifying the best college talent.

 

I understand the topic being discussed. Whether's Nix' plan is working is subjective and certainly open to interpretation, but your first pick as the GM of a team should tell you what their plan consists of, which was my point. I disagreed that you begin rebuilding with a RB, especially in the NFL of 2010-11. That's a foundation pick, and not many teams build around RB's, regardless of their supposed big play ability.

 

I'll maintain that to demonstrate his plan is a good one, the Bills need to win 8 games in 2011. Less than that indicates, IMO, that it's not working

[Sisyphean Bills]

Not sure what your point is about Whaley.

Not sure why you don't get it. Whaley was from the Steelers organization. Your point that Nix totally rebuilt the Bills scouting department with his guys is thus a bit of a stretch.

He did hire him IIRC and he was the Pro scout, i.e., scouting upcoming opponents. Now he's also in charge of collating the College scouting reports as well as doing college scouting.

Nix also hired scouts Tom Gibbons away from SD to be the Pro Personnel Director, and Chuck Cook away from KC to be Director of College Scouting. Some more interesting reading.

Well, that's all well and good but you're applauding these moves which were made in May of 2011 although Nix was hired on Dec. 31 2009. And, that was my point.

But the system is Buddy's system. You don't get to rise up the scouting ranks in the NFL if you have no system. There are dozens of systems and tools for charting. This is fundamental.

Yeah. Bill Polian learned everything he knows about running an NFL franchise from Buddy Nix. Gotcha.

To suggest Nix and The Bills staff have no system is foolish. If you don't know what scouting is about, I suggest you do some reading and perhaps start with the father of the Devil himself, who wrote the seminal tome on the craft which el Diablo learned and began practicing by age 11.

That's a really strong argument there. Nobody said he had "no system": so much for that straw-man. And your repeated attempts to imply nobody else knows anything about scouting by trumpeting "do your homework" are as laughable as they are transparently thin, which makes you come off as a bit of a wanker.

[NoSaint]

Not sure why you don't get it. Whaley was from the Steelers organization. Your point that Nix totally rebuilt the Bills scouting department with his guys is thus a bit of a stretch.

 

Well, that's all well and good but you're applauding these moves which were made in May of 2011 although Nix was hired on Dec. 31 2009. And, that was my point.

Yeah. Bill Polian learned everything he knows about running an NFL franchise from Buddy Nix. Gotcha.

 

That's a really strong argument there. Nobody said he had "no system": so much for that straw-man. And your repeated attempts to imply nobody else knows anything about scouting by trumpeting "do your homework" are as laughable as they are transparently thin, which makes you come off as a bit of a wanker.

 

 

So nix interviewed and hired him... Likely having a previous relationship with him.... And Whaley doesn't count because he was on a different team? By your standard, did nix only have three choices "?

 

1)stand pat with bills guys due to his incompetence and inability to get guys

2)hire the entire sd staff, due to his lack of connections anywhere else

3)hire from other teams because he didnt have his own guys

[JohnC]

I understand the topic being discussed. Whether's Nix' plan is working is subjective and certainly open to interpretation, but your first pick as the GM of a team should tell you what their plan consists of, which was my point. I disagreed that you begin rebuilding with a RB, especially in the NFL of 2010-11. That's a foundation pick, and not many teams build around RB's, regardless of their supposed big play ability.

 

If Spiller turns out to be a big play back are you still going to label him as a bad pick? When Nix made Spiller his first pick he picked the highest rated player left on his board. Spiller was a top ten rated player who was taken as a top ten player. I have no problems with that approach. That is the same approach that Ozzie Newsome uses with the Ravens, i.e. take the highest rated player irrespective of the position.

 

Nix took over a very weak roster. Over the next few years the roster will be almost completely turned over from when he first came on board. What is a foundation pick when there are needs at almost evey position?

 

I would have liked to have seen Nix take Buloga with his first pick. But I understand why Nix took Spiller over him. Spiller was rated as a top 8-10 player while Buloga was rated in the 15-20 range. In addition, he felt that the team didn't have any playmakers on offense, so that was another reason to have taken him. You may disagree with Nix's first pick but you can't fault him for his understandable reasoning

 

I'll maintain that to demonstrate his plan is a good one, the Bills need to win 8 games in 2011. Less than that indicates, IMO, that it's not working

 

The Bills will not win 8 games next season. You need to find a more realistic measuring stick. The rebuilding process is going to take at least 4 yrs. We are in a conference with the Pats and Jets. We have years to go and a franchise qb away before we will contend with those more accomplished teams and organizations. Let's not even get into a discussion about the comparison of owners when discussing what it takes to be a contending team!!!! I don't want to thoroughly discourage you.

[spartacus]

If Spiller turns out to be a big play back are you still going to label him as a bad pick? When Nix made Spiller his first pick he picked the highest rated player left on his board. Spiller was a top ten rated player who was taken as a top ten player. I have no problems with that approach. That is the same approach that Ozzie Newsome uses with the Ravens, i.e. take the highest rated player irrespective of the position.

 

Nix took over a very weak roster. Over the next few years the roster will be almost completely turned over from when he first came on board. What is a foundation pick when there are needs at almost evey position?

 

I would have liked to have seen Nix take Buloga with his first pick. But I understand why Nix took Spiller over him. Spiller was rated as a top 8-10 player while Buloga was rated in the 15-20 range. In addition, he felt that the team didn't have any playmakers on offense, so that was another reason to have taken him. You may disagree with Nix's first pick but you can't fault him for his understandable reasoning

 

 

 

The Bills will not win 8 games next season. You need to find a more realistic measuring stick. The rebuilding process is going to take at least 4 yrs. We are in a conference with the Pats and Jets. We have years to go and a franchise qb away before we will contend with those more accomplished teams and organizations. Let's not even get into a discussion about the comparison of owners when discussing what it takes to be a contending team!!!! I don't want to thoroughly discourage you.

 

so by your own talent evaluation, the Bills are 4 years away from today from being a playoff contender

 

that should be just about when Spiller's career will be over

 

so how does it make any sense whatsoever to be drafting a jitterbug with a 4 year lifecycle at the beginning of a 5 year re-build project??

 

soldifying the OL to block for the RB drafted in 4 years as the last piece of the puzzle would be the smarter way to build a long term playoff contender

 

but I guess Buddy needed to see the guys actually play for a couple years to figure out they all have to be replaced

 

 

 

 

 

[....lybob]

 

 

 

The Bills will not win 8 games next season. You need to find a more realistic measuring stick. The rebuilding process is going to take at least 4 yrs. We are in a conference with the Pats and Jets. We have years to go and a franchise qb away before we will contend with those more accomplished teams and organizations. Let's not even get into a discussion about the comparison of owners when discussing what it takes to be a contending team!!!! I don't want to thoroughly discourage you.

I've been predicting the Bills seasons for the last 12 years and in that time I haven't been off by more that one game- and right now even though it's early I rate them 7-9 and if they get a little Help in free agency that could move them up to 8-8. I'm not a rah rah guy in fact I get a lot heat for being negative (I call it realistic) basically the Bills are less glaringly bad this year- my one fear is 31 year old Fred Jackson falls off the face of the earth and Spiller proves he can't carry 20 times a game- I'd consider Michael Bush as a Guy who could split carries with Spiller and Jackson.

[PromoTheRobot]

I love how we keep wallowing in the mud of old regimes, as if we all hope Nix and Gailey are also huge failures so we can flog ourselves even more. I look at how some folks over on the Sabres board are still bitching up a storm even after getting a dream owner like Terry Pegula, and it convinces me that being a Buffalo sports fan is all about feeling like a victim.

 

PTR

[sllib olaffub]

I understand the topic being discussed. Whether's Nix' plan is working is subjective and certainly open to interpretation, but your first pick as the GM of a team should tell you what their plan consists of, which was my point. I disagreed that you begin rebuilding with a RB, especially in the NFL of 2010-11. That's a foundation pick, and not many teams build around RB's, regardless of their supposed big play ability.

 

I'll maintain that to demonstrate his plan is a good one, the Bills need to win 8 games in 2011. Less than that indicates, IMO, that it's not working

 

I disagree with Spiller being a bad pick merely because he is a RB and other positions are harder to fill, or more cornerstone to a franchise - certain players, no matter their position, are good enough to be picked very high. I believe, and have since the Spiller pick, that Gailey envisioned his offense consisting of certain critical components - a type of RB, a type of QB, and a set of certain types of WR's. I think when their pick came in, they looked at the available players, and they didn't see a QB that fit the mold, but they saw a RB who looked to be the right guy. They weren't drafting for last year. They were drafting Spiller to be the man they envisioned this year, and even more so next year. I mean, if they could get Chris Johnson type production out of Spiller, or, to say it more clearly, if Chris Johnson were in last year's draft, and every team knew what he'd end up being capable of, I doubt very much he'd of made it to Buffalo.

 

As for needing to get to 8 wins - I think if we lost 12 games next year to tough teams, and we took all 12 teams right to the end, or into overtime, and the games we won we won convincingly, then that would be a situation where one might think, the Bills are a few pieces away from turning it around. A team can improve by 8-10 wins in a season, given the right circumstances. I just want to see a team that is in every game, whose young players are showing promise and improvement, a team that gets better and tougher every week (much like the Patriots before they won their first Super Bowl with Bellicheck, they were a bunch of mostly no-name guys who just played really tough and very good team football). Also, and I think this is as much an indication of where we are and where we can go, is whether or not our team is as prepared as the opponent. Our coaches must be able to put together winning game plans. We did that a lot last year, but there were also games - especially against New England - where we just looked way out smarted. I hate that more than anything. Our coaching staff must be able to surprise even the best coaches, because we face some awfully good coaches in this division.

 

I like where we're headed. I think with a good Free Agency period this year, and the right draft next year, followed by another good Free Agency period, and we could be seeing the next round of Bills dynasty football. We'll probably get the young signal caller next year, and as someone earlier pointed out, I think with this Free Agency period being as full as it will be with players, we must be active in it to get to wehre we want in the next few years.

[John from Riverside]

I love how we keep wallowing in the mud of old regimes, as if we all hope Nix and Gailey are also huge failures so we can flog ourselves even more. I look at how some folks over on the Sabres board are still bitching up a storm even after getting a dream owner like Terry Pegula, and it convinces me that being a Buffalo sports fan is all about feeling like a victim.

 

PTR

 

 

I am not understanding the concept of beating up on Nix and Gailey based on the failures of the guys before them....or even yet....BLAMING them for the moves of guys before them

 

One of the big gripes fans have had about this team is that we get pushed around up front on defense right? Well does Nix/Gailey get any credit for addressing this?

 

You gotta allow them to put their imprint on the team before making judgements folks and one year isn't enough to do that

[billsfan89]

I disagree with Spiller being a bad pick merely because he is a RB and other positions are harder to fill, or more cornerstone to a franchise - certain players, no matter their position, are good enough to be picked very high. I believe, and have since the Spiller pick, that Gailey envisioned his offense consisting of certain critical components - a type of RB, a type of QB, and a set of certain types of WR's. I think when their pick came in, they looked at the available players, and they didn't see a QB that fit the mold, but they saw a RB who looked to be the right guy. They weren't drafting for last year. They were drafting Spiller to be the man they envisioned this year, and even more so next year. I mean, if they could get Chris Johnson type production out of Spiller, or, to say it more clearly, if Chris Johnson were in last year's draft, and every team knew what he'd end up being capable of, I doubt very much he'd of made it to Buffalo.

 

As for needing to get to 8 wins - I think if we lost 12 games next year to tough teams, and we took all 12 teams right to the end, or into overtime, and the games we won we won convincingly, then that would be a situation where one might think, the Bills are a few pieces away from turning it around. A team can improve by 8-10 wins in a season, given the right circumstances. I just want to see a team that is in every game, whose young players are showing promise and improvement, a team that gets better and tougher every week (much like the Patriots before they won their first Super Bowl with Bellicheck, they were a bunch of mostly no-name guys who just played really tough and very good team football). Also, and I think this is as much an indication of where we are and where we can go, is whether or not our team is as prepared as the opponent. Our coaches must be able to put together winning game plans. We did that a lot last year, but there were also games - especially against New England - where we just looked way out smarted. I hate that more than anything. Our coaching staff must be able to surprise even the best coaches, because we face some awfully good coaches in this division.

 

I like where we're headed. I think with a good Free Agency period this year, and the right draft next year, followed by another good Free Agency period, and we could be seeing the next round of Bills dynasty football. We'll probably get the young signal caller next year, and as someone earlier pointed out, I think with this Free Agency period being as full as it will be with players, we must be active in it to get to wehre we want in the next few years.

 

I am not a Nix guy but I am not a anti-Nix guy either. For me I like some of What Nix has done (2011 draft, 2010 draft minus the Spiller pick) and I hate some of the decisions Nix has made (The Spiller pick, inability to pick up a better RT in free agency than Green). But all in all for me as a Bills fan it all comes down to WINNING.

 

I honestly feel like for Nix and Gailey it has to show up in wins this season. They had last season to gut the roster and shape the organization, this will be their second off season and second draft class another 5 or less win season is unacceptable.

 

I don't expect miracles with this team playoffs are a long ways away BUT assuming they have a typical Bills year in free agency (Lots of depth action not much in way of major moves) this team should at the very least win 6 (With a lot of player progress)games and in all honesty 7-8 wins isn't too far out of the question.

 

I don't think that 7-9 is an unreasonable expectation (With 6-10 being borderline) at all. Last season was 4-12 yeah there was player progress and it was a fun team to watch at times HOWEVER it was 4-12. IF Gailey is worth his worth as a coach he will be able to take this roster plus what ever free agent additions are brought in to have a 3 game improvement.

 

If this team goes 5-11 I can't see how anyone can have faith in Nix and Gailey to turn the ship around. In the end the GM's draft picks have to develop into pro-bowl and NFL caliber players and the coach has to make them fit into a system that results in wins.