Some defensive stats from Football Outsiders

[dave mcbride]

Not sure I agree with this.

 

They list 12 leaders for the "stop rate" category:

 

94-D.Ware OLB 3-4

55-T.Suggs OLB 3-4

92-J.Harrison OLB 3-4

55-L.Briggs OLB 4-3

54-Geno.Hayes MLB 4-3

97-C.Pace OLB 3-4

95-S.Phillips OLB 3-4

52-C.Crowder ILB 3-4

51-J.Farrior ILB 3-4

92-W.Witherspoon OLB 4-3

94-L.Timmons ILB 3-4

53-K.Conner MLB 4-3

 

5 guys that played OLB in a 3-4, 2 that played OLB in a 4-3, 2 that played MLB in a 4-3, and 3 that played ILB in a 3-4. That's not that great a variation, and even if it were, reading how they normalized the statistic "Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down" tells me that the numbers shouldn't be skewed at all. Each player was evaluated based on every running play for which they showed up on the stat sheet.

 

The only ILBs for a 3-4 who made the list were Timmons, Farrior, and Crowder. Timmons and Farrior play for the Steelers. That automatically skews their stats (in a good way, for them) for this reason alone: the Steelers had the best front in football according to Cold Hard Football Facts:

 

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html

 

The Dolphins were fifth in the NFL.

 

The worst in the league? Why, it's our very own Buffalo Bills!!

Edited June 15, 2011 by dave mcbride

[John from Riverside]

This has been my side of the pro-Poz and pro-Whitner arguments. People blast them for not making tackles at the line of scrimmage. First off, that is a ridiculous criticism for a SAFETY who should not be playing that far up. Secondly, if DL was making any plays at all, Poz would not be our leading tackler and most of his tackles would not be in the defensive backfield.

 

Poz and Whitner were heavily relied upon to be our only tacklers in the run game, and they did it fairly well.

 

Before anyone criticizes Poz's play, they have to wonder what the other 6 players from the Front 7 were doing?!?

 

My problem with Whitner is not his run support....I thought he did a good job in that area...it is his horrid pass defense which is his number one job.

[DrDawkinstein]

My problem with Whitner is not his run support....I thought he did a good job in that area...it is his horrid pass defense which is his number one job.

 

Should* be his number 1 job. But when teams are pounding and pounding and pounding the ball on you, it brings the Safeties up. The Safety starts to come up towards the line, and then gets burnt in coverage.

 

Not excusing Donte 100%, but again, my point is that there are so many other positions which are completely broken, and have guys who are not doing their jobs, that I find it difficult to criticize the few players that are consistently making plays.

 

Yes, maybe they are plays which are too far down the field, but that is more on the Front 7 than a Safety.

 

Im really looking forward to seeing what some of these perennial whipping boys can actually do with some DL talent in front of them, and more LB talent around them. If Dareus is a machine and Poz still isnt making big plays at or behind the line (and Donte is still getting burned), then Im willing to re-evaluate.

Edited June 15, 2011 by DrDareustein

[stony]

Should* be his number 1 job. But when teams are pounding and pounding and pounding the ball on you, it brings the Safeties up. The Safety starts to come up towards the line, and then gets burnt in coverage.

 

Not excusing Donte 100%, but again, my point is that there are so many other positions which are completely broken, and have guys who are not doing their jobs, that I find it difficult to criticize the few players that are consistently making plays.

 

Yes, maybe they are plays which are too far down the field, but that is more on the Front 7 than a Safety.

 

Im really looking forward to seeing what some of these perennial whipping boys can actually do with some DL talent in front of them, and more LB talent around them. If Dareus is a machine and Poz still isnt making big plays at or behind the line (and Donte is still getting burned), then Im willing to re-evaluate.

 

I feel like you're the only one in this thread making objective points, and not the traditional Buffalo Sport's Fan argument of crapping on the biggest names when they don't equal the production of glory day Bill's and Sabres.

 

It's OK to not want Poz and Whitner, but to simply place the blame on their shoulders is missing the point. Our defense sucked on a number of levels, especially the front seven. I honestly believe we have three starters Poz, Williams, and Edwards that would start for other teams. That's not conducive for any one individual to succeed. Williams was the only one making consistent plays on his own, which is awesome, but not an indictment of the other player's skills/value to this team.

Edited June 15, 2011 by stony

[Defend Greece]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

+1

poz is above average prob a top 12 mb

[Defend Greece]

If you have two studs they make everybody better

Ray lewis and ed reed made guys like duane starks, ed hartwell, jamie sharper, michael mccrary, tony siragusa and on and on look better than they were

 

Same with the pitt linebackers and giants defensive line

 

We need someone who demands our players to play at their level

[DrDawkinstein]

If you have two studs they make everybody better

Ray lewis and ed reed made guys like duane starks, ed hartwell, jamie sharper, michael mccrary, tony siragusa and on and on look better than they were

 

Same with the pitt linebackers and giants defensive line

 

We need someone who demands our players to play at their level

 

If you have a couple of 10/10 studs like Reed and Lewis, then yes, they will elevate the play of the other 7/10-type players around them.

 

If you have a couple of 7-8/10 players like Poz and Whitner, and then surround them with a bunch of 3s, 4s, and 5s, they will be brought down to the lower level.

 

You think if Ray Lewis played for the Bills our Defense would all of a sudden play like Baltimores? Even though we dont have the Suggs, Ngatas, etc. like they do?

 

Id be willing to bet that Lewis and Reed would admit that the talent on the Ravens DL over the years has directly contributed to their level of play, not vice versa. Remember, it ALL starts in the trenches.

 

Baltimore and Pittsburgh are bad examples for your argument because they have a proven track record of identifying talent. Heck, their depth players are better than some of our recent starters.

 

Hopefully, the addition of guys like Dareus and Sheppard will start to turn that around.

Edited June 15, 2011 by DrDareustein

[Defend Greece]

If you have a couple of 10/10 studs like Reed and Lewis, then yes, they will elevate the play of the other 7/10-type players around them.

 

If you have a couple of 7-8/10 players like Poz and Whitner, and then surround them with a bunch of 3s, 4s, and 5s, they will be brought down to the lower level.

 

You think if Ray Lewis played for the Bills our Defense would all of a sudden play like Baltimores? Even though we dont have the Suggs, Ngatas, etc. like they do?

 

Id be willing to bet that Lewis and Reed would admit that the talent on the Ravens DL over the years has directly contributed to their level of play, not vice versa. Remember, it ALL starts in the trenches.

 

Baltimore and Pittsburgh are bad examples for your argument because they have a proven track record of identifying talent. Heck, their depth players are better than some of our recent starters.

 

Hopefully, the addition of guys like Dareus and Sheppard will start to turn that around.

Im talking about the superbowl team wgen suggs and ngata werent there and the ravens had lewis since they moved to baltimore and pitt has always had hall of fame linebackers so yeah if we had them we would be good

And also a stud is a ten i saidnothing about poz and whitner being tens

Edited June 15, 2011 by Defend Greece

[DrDawkinstein]

Im talking about the superbowl team wgen suggs and ngata werent there and the ravens had lewis since they moved to baltimore and pitt has always had hall of fame linebackers so yeah if we had them we would be good

And also a stud is a ten i saidnothing about poz and whitner being tens

 

My statement about them admitting the DL makes them better stands no matter what season you are talking about.

 

I also do not consider Poz and Whitner 10s. That is why I referred to them as 7-8s.

 

Therein lies my point. Our "best" players are "ok starters" on other teams. That isnt Poz and Whitner's (and William's) fault, it's the FO's for not identifying better talent at the other 8 positions on the field. Especially the most important positions, those along the DL.