Some defensive stats from Football Outsiders

[Beerball]

Best & worst run stop rates

Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down.

Not surprisingly the Bills had 3 LBs show up at the bottom of this category. Poz is 3rd worst, Ayodele & Davis are right behind him. Edwards and Johnson don't fare well in the DL category, Whitner in the DB category.

 

They also look at broken tackles.

The good news is Poz and Whitner don't allow broken tackles, the bad news is they don't make tackles close enough to the LOS.

[Coach Tuesday]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

Edited June 14, 2011 by Coach Tuesday

[Beerball]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

From them:

Obviously, Stop Rate isn't a perfect stat. It measures the plays that a player makes, not the plays he misses or the plays he doesn't even get a chance to miss because he is being properly blocked away from the ballcarrier.

So, yes, an ineffective line will have a big impact on plays that LBs make & where they make them.

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

This was on Yahoo awhile ago but involves similar style stats from the 2010 season:

 

Defensive Tackle

Most total defeats

1. Ndamukong Suh(notes), Detroit Lions (29)

If you watched Suh’s rookie season, this should come as no surprise. No tackle in the league spent more time creating negative plays than Suh. And the scary part is that Suh’s going to only get better.

2. Kyle Williams, Buffalo Bills (20)

 

Defensive defeats indicates the total number of plays by a defensive player that prevents the offense from gaining first-down yardage on third or fourth down, stops the offense behind the line of scrimmage or results in a turnover.

 

LINEBACKERS

Most total plays

1. Jerod Mayo(notes), New England Patriots (178)

Tackles are often a difficult way to rate linebackers, especially interior linebackers. When tackles flow your way, you’re supposed to make them. But Mayo showed his true value to the Patriots by being involved in more defensive plays (run or pass) than any other player.

2. Stephen Tulloch(notes), Tennessee Titans (163)

3. Paul Posluszny(notes), Buffalo Bills (155)

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AnGA3KSqaP7R6mfA8rdHUkNDubYF?slug=ys-intangibles012711

[DrDawkinstein]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

 

This has been my side of the pro-Poz and pro-Whitner arguments. People blast them for not making tackles at the line of scrimmage. First off, that is a ridiculous criticism for a SAFETY who should not be playing that far up. Secondly, if DL was making any plays at all, Poz would not be our leading tackler and most of his tackles would not be in the defensive backfield.

 

Poz and Whitner were heavily relied upon to be our only tacklers in the run game, and they did it fairly well.

 

Before anyone criticizes Poz's play, they have to wonder what the other 6 players from the Front 7 were doing?!?

[eball]

In my mind, here's that article in a nutshell (from a Bills fan's perspective):

 

"Also, if you're looking at that list, you may be surprised by just how many run tackles Donte Whitner made last year: 94. That's 25 more than any other defensive back in the league. The Buffalo front seven wasn't really doing the best job of stopping opposition runners. Whitner was fifth in the entire league in the number of Run Plays, behind only four inside linebackers (Jerod Mayo, Paul Posluszny, Stephen Tulloch, and London Fletcher). The next-highest defensive back was Antrel Rolle, who was tied for 29th.

 

With all the Buffalo players listed on the Worst Run Stop Rate lists above, you really see what a problem run defense was for the Bills and it just makes you appreciate Kyle Williams even more. Williams led the Bills in Run Defeats (11), Run Stop Rate (77 percent), and yards per play on runs (2.1). Fourteen different players had at least 20 run tackles for Buffalo and Marcus Stroud was the only other one with a Run Stop Rate above 70 percent (just barely, at 70.5 percent) while Spencer Johnson (2.8) was the only other one to make his average run tackle within three yards of the line of scrimmage."

 

It's a damn good thing the Bills have spent the last two drafts picking heavily on the D-line and LBs (Troup, Carrington, Batten, Moats, Dareus, Sheppard, White, Jasper).

[DrDawkinstein]

Reeeeeeally looking forward to what Dareus can bring to this D...

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Reeeeeeally looking forward to what Dareus can bring to this D...

 

Definitely....also very interested to see how Carrington and Troupe progress. I also thought Spencer Johnson made some quality contributions down the stretch, and surprisingly, was one of our better and more consistent defensive lineman. Not saying that Dareus will be as good as Suh, but look what the addition of Suh did to Detroit's defensive line play....he made everyone around him better.

 

People may site Detroit's less than stellar rushing defense statistics, but there was a definite qualitative difference in their line play. Those d-tackles were constantly in the offensive backfield.

[K-9]

Obviously, Stop Rate isn't a perfect stat. It measures the plays that a player makes, not the plays he misses or the plays he doesn't even get a chance to miss because he is being properly blocked away from the ballcarrier.

 

Like I've been saying since his second season in the league, it isn't the plays that Poz makes, it's the ones he doesn't make. And he doesn't make a ton of plays. Same goes for all our LBs, the worst collective group I've seen in a Bills uniform. Poz and Davis are merely ordinary and the rest were worse last season.

 

Yes, the DLine contributes to our LBs and DBs having to make tackles down field. It's no surprise that Edwards and Johnson made the list as DLmen but most of those second level tackles made by our LBs are a result of them not being in position to make plays where they're supposed to. They can't shed blocks (yes, that's actually part of the job description), over pursue, take bad angles and can't cover worth a damn. Other than that, they are just want you want in a group of LBs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[DrDawkinstein]

Like I've been saying since his second season in the league, it isn't the plays that Poz makes, it's the ones he doesn't make. And he doesn't make a ton of plays. Same goes for all our LBs, the worst collective group I've seen in a Bills uniform. Poz and Davis are merely ordinary and the rest were worse last season.

 

Yes, the DLine contributes to our LBs and DBs having to make tackles down field. It's no surprise that Edwards and Johnson made the list as DLmen but most of those second level tackles made by our LBs are a result of them not being in position to make plays where they're supposed to. They can't shed blocks (yes, that's actually part of the job description), over pursue, take bad angles and can't cover worth a damn. Other than that, they are just want you want in a group of LBs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Yet he leads the team in tackles, so he's obviously making the most plays. And lack of DL talent allowed OL to easily make it to the second level. So instead of taking on Fullbacks like a lot of MLBs get to, Poz was in position to have Guards take free runs at him.

 

I agree that our LB unit as a whole was weak, but regardless of opinion, Poz was the only one making ANY plays.

 

Shore up the DL around Williams, add some LB talent around Poz. You replace your weakest players first, not your best. That should be the plan, and it looks like that is exactly what Nix did.

[DreReed83]

This has been my side of the pro-Poz and pro-Whitner arguments. People blast them for not making tackles at the line of scrimmage. First off, that is a ridiculous criticism for a SAFETY who should not be playing that far up. Secondly, if DL was making any plays at all, Poz would not be our leading tackler and most of his tackles would not be in the defensive backfield.

 

Poz and Whitner were heavily relied upon to be our only tacklers in the run game, and they did it fairly well.

 

Before anyone criticizes Poz's play, they have to wonder what the other 6 players from the Front 7 were doing?!?

 

Yes. I've NEVER seen Polamalu or Adrian Wilson play near the line of scrimmage.

 

Kyle Williams did a lot. But I'm guessing Poz did a whole lot of nothing. Just like the others.

 

Yet he leads the team in tackles, so he's obviously making the most plays. And lack of DL talent allowed OL to easily make it to the second level. So instead of taking on Fullbacks like a lot of MLBs get to, Poz was in position to have Guards take free runs at him.

 

I agree that our LB unit as a whole was weak, but regardless of opinion, Poz was the only one making ANY plays.

 

Shore up the DL around Williams, add some LB talent around Poz. You replace your weakest players first, not your best. That should be the plan, and it looks like that is exactly what Nix did.

 

And even when Poz was in position to make a play he somehow finds a way to screw it up.

Edited June 14, 2011 by DreReed83

[K-9]

Yet he leads the team in tackles, so he's obviously making the most plays. And lack of DL talent allowed OL to easily make it to the second level. So instead of taking on Fullbacks like a lot of MLBs get to, Poz was in position to have Guards take free runs at him.

 

I agree that our LB unit as a whole was weak, but regardless of opinion, Poz was the only one making ANY plays.

 

Shore up the DL around Williams, add some LB talent around Poz. You replace your weakest players first, not your best. That should be the plan, and it looks like that is exactly what Nix did.

 

Again, it's the plays he DOESN'T make.

 

Every inside LB in the league has to take on OLmen and shed blocks. This idea that Poz did that on every play or even most of the time is a total myth.

 

He simply doesn't get himself into position often enough to make plays. For him to be effective EVERYONE around him needs to play at a high level. That's the definition of ordinary.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited June 14, 2011 by K-9

[DrDawkinstein]

Again, it's the plays he DOESN'T make.

 

 

Please provide a single example of this, as it is VERY easy to say something like that with no actual facts to back it up.

 

Every inside LB in the league has to take on OLmen and shed blocks. This idea that Poz did that on every play or even most of the time is a total myth.

 

He simply doesn't get himself into position often enough to make plays. For him to be effective EVERYONE around him needs to play at a high level. That's the definition of ordinary.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I never said the players around him have to play at a "high level". You and I both know that outside of Williams, there was not a lot of even Ordinary Level play consistently coming from our DL and LBs. If we could surround Poz with a bunch of other players that are as good as Poz, we'd have a top Defense. That's not "ordinary". But the guys we had couldnt even do their jobs. Since you are so aware of all of Poz's faults, you MUST be aware of the even worse play from the other players around him. Right?

 

Im not saying Poz is perfect, or even great. But there are MANY other players that should be criticized and replaced before we even THINK about replacing Poz. Again, replace your worst and weakest first, not your best. Even if you arent happy with your best.

 

You want to talk weak, how about Ayodole and Davis being on the list right behind Poz, yet not having the other tackle stats to make up for it?!?

 

Wouldnt that mean they are much worse than Poz? I think so. They should be getting the scrutiny instead. And you actualy have people in the Poz thread saying that Sheppard should replace Poz and play next to Davis?!? LOL. It's not rocket surgery to figure this out.

Edited June 14, 2011 by DrDareustein

[Dorkington]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

I agree with this.

[dave mcbride]

To me, this just shows how much our front four sucks. Btw, Poz was among the league leaders in stuffs in 2009. The fact that he's tackling players seven yards past the LOS doesn't mean he's doing a bad job. It quite possibly means that the DTs in front of him can't do their job and allow him to move freely. Judging from what I saw on a weekly basis last season, that's by far and away the most likely explanation. He's no superstar, but he'd start for most any team in the league. It amazes me when Bills fans want to send their solid players packing. There are far worse players than him, trust me.

 

Btw, FO should be interpreting the Whitner stat as a *positive*. I mean, Christ, he's the last line of defense. At least he makes plays in that regard. I'm not a huge Whitner booster, but the fact that he makes so many plays indicates that he's covering for crappy front line.

Edited June 14, 2011 by dave mcbride

[DrDawkinstein]

To me, this just shows how much our front four sucks. Btw, Poz was among the league leaders in stuffs in 2009. The fact that he's tackling players seven yards past the LOS doesn't mean he's doing a bad job. It quite possibly means that the DTs in front of him can't do their job and allow him to move freely. Judging from what I saw on a weekly basis last season, that's by far and away the most likely explanation. He's no superstar, but he'd start for most any team in the league. It amazes me when Bills fans want to send their solid players packing. There are far worse players than him, trust me.

 

Btw, FO should be interpreting the Whitner stat as a *positive*. I mean, Christ, he's the last line of defense. At least he makes plays in that regard. I'm not a huge Whitner booster, but the fact that he makes so many plays indicates that he's covering for crappy front line.

 

100%

[dave mcbride]

PS - looking at the run stop rate, note that practically all of the leaders are OLBs, not MLBs. The stats are therefore quite skewed, which makes sense when you think about it.

[Armchair GM]

I could be wrong but I believe that FO's "stop rate" ends up measuring the effectiveness of a team's front four, because it depends heavily on how far downfield the tackle is made (the farther downfield, the worse score you get). So these stats tells us that Whitner and Poz had very little help in front of them but were rock-solid tacklers when the ball carrier found its way to them. Pretty consistent with what we saw with our own eyes.

 

OOOORRRRRR....one can make the arguement that the #'s for the DL are scewed due to the fact that the LB didn't attack the LOS, plug a gap and turn the ball carrier back into the pursuing defenders...just sayn'

 

IMHO, this is the case with Poz...he's a catcher! He waits for the blocker at the second level, sheds and tackles...not what I want out of the guy who is supposed to be the toughest SOB on the D!

Edited June 14, 2011 by Armchair GM

[K-9]

Please provide a single example of this, as it is VERY easy to say something like that with no actual facts to back it up.

 

 

 

I never said the players around him have to play at a "high level". You and I both know that outside of Williams, there was not a lot of even Ordinary Level play consistently coming from our DL and LBs. If we could surround Poz with a bunch of other players that are as good as Poz, we'd have a top Defense. That's not "ordinary". But the guys we had couldnt even do their jobs. Since you are so aware of all of Poz's faults, you MUST be aware of the even worse play from the other players around him. Right?

 

Im not saying Poz is perfect, or even great. But there are MANY other players that should be criticized and replaced before we even THINK about replacing Poz. Again, replace your worst and weakest first, not your best. Even if you arent happy with your best.

 

I'm saying the players around him all have to play at a high level for him to be effective. Poz is no different than any other ordinary player in that regard (key word: ordinary). Of course he'd play better with better players around him. I've said several times that IMO, we only have 3 to 4 quality starters on our D. Yes there are worse players than him on the defense. And nobody brings a better set of intangibles in terms of attitude and leadership. That doesn't make him a star waiting to happen, though. I've seen enough of him NOT making plays that good players make even when they aren't surrounded by ALL Pros. He's just not a consistent play maker on defense. Granted, the scheme change didn't help but he had two seasons as an MLB in a 43 where he was just as ineffective (I didn't count his rookie season).

 

I agree 100% about Ayodole and Davis. My disdain for our LBs as a group is well established here. And our DE doesn't do the LB corp very many players. But our poor LBing play is more of a result of having poor LBs than it is poor DLman. There's just too many plays showing that.

 

If I found 100 examples of Poz not making a play you'd argue that he would have made the play if only those around him were better. Maybe, maybe not. Or you'd find a couple of good plays he made to balance it out. In the absence of a full game of defensive plays I can only offer plays from various highlight packages. These are just a few plays illustrative of the countless plays over the course of the year where he didn't fill a hole, took a wrong angle, guessed wrong, was slow getting there, was weak, etc. If you or anyone else has a full game or two on tape I'd be happy to show additional examples. Of if you want to find additional highlights they're there. I just don't have the time or patience to get more at the moment.

 

I can only post one media file at a time apparently so I'll provide additional video in separate responses.

 

This is against the Jets. The first and last plays are a microcosm of how he plays.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gavV7CngHgQ

 

He had particularly poor games against the Chiefs, Vikings, Jets II, and New England II. I'd bet he led the team in tackles in some of those games, too.

 

I'm not saying Poz is the worst LB to ever play the game. I'm saying he's not very good based on how he plays. There are reasons to keep him, like his intangibles and experience. I certainly wouldn't break the bank for him, though. His poor plays far outnumber his big plays. He's just a run of the mill player based on his body of work to this point in his pro career. If you have video to the contrary, I'd be happy to reconsider. Hell, I WANT a reason to reconsider.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Please provide a single example of this, as it is VERY easy to say something like that with no actual facts to back it up.

 

See if you can spot some plays against the Steelers.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEfO-_7y7iU&feature=related

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Please provide a single example of this, as it is VERY easy to say something like that with no actual facts to back it up.

 

A few against the Dolphins. Poor pass defense as well.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhJpyWPBw3c

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

OOOORRRRRR....one can make the arguement that the #'s for the DL are scewed due to the fact that the LB didn't attack the LOS, plug a gap and turn the ball carrier back into the pursuing defenders...just sayn'

 

IMHO, this is the case with Poz...he's a catcher! He waits for the blocker at the second level, sheds and tackles...not what I want out of the guy who is supposed to be the toughest SOB on the D!

 

This is the inability of our LB group as a whole. Poz seems to lack explosion to the hole and rarely seems to guess correctly. He tends to get lost in traffic as well.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thebandit27]

PS - looking at the run stop rate, note that practically all of the leaders are OLBs, not MLBs. The stats are therefore quite skewed, which makes sense when you think about it.

 

Not sure I agree with this.

 

They list 12 leaders for the "stop rate" category:

 

94-D.Ware OLB 3-4

55-T.Suggs OLB 3-4

92-J.Harrison OLB 3-4

55-L.Briggs OLB 4-3

54-Geno.Hayes MLB 4-3

97-C.Pace OLB 3-4

95-S.Phillips OLB 3-4

52-C.Crowder ILB 3-4

51-J.Farrior ILB 3-4

92-W.Witherspoon OLB 4-3

94-L.Timmons ILB 3-4

53-K.Conner MLB 4-3

 

5 guys that played OLB in a 3-4, 2 that played OLB in a 4-3, 2 that played MLB in a 4-3, and 3 that played ILB in a 3-4. That's not that great a variation, and even if it were, reading how they normalized the statistic "Stop Rate is defined as the percentage of a players Plays that were Stops. Plays are any time a player shows up in the play-by-play on defense: tackles, assists, forced fumbles, etc. Stops are plays that stop the offense short of what FO considers a successful play: 45 percent of yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down" tells me that the numbers shouldn't be skewed at all. Each player was evaluated based on every running play for which they showed up on the stat sheet.