Spiller on Prisco's list of 20 Breakout players of 2011

[Pilsner]

Being a realistic optimist I think Spiller will do better this year than last. He'll be hampered a bit by lack of carries due to Jackson. He definitely needs to learn to pass block. That better be one of his top or even the highest priority in his book. Sure he could turn out to be a bust. But he could also grow into a player such as McFadden or better. Thinking he'll turn into a stud is not unrealistic. Personally I believe he will. He just needs to learn to pass block and be more patient with his O-line blocking for him.

 

On a side note, I plan on picking up Spiller in my fantasy draft (if there's a season and if he drops as I expect he will unless some sports writers list him as a breakout player). Some people are so damn negative on this board. Being realistic does not mean one has to be negative. Realistic views can also see growth.

Edited May 27, 2011 by Pilsner

[ganesh]

I don't see CJ getting 1k yards unless Fred has a season ending injury in week 1

 

Why not...After all Freddy and Lynch together had > 2K yards in the 2009 season.

[Toledo Bill]

http://www.cbssports.com/#!/nfl/story/15168205/breakout-players-stafford-leads-class-of-20

 

C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills: Spiller was expected to add a dynamic presence to the Buffalo offense last season, but it never happened. He was slowed by injuries and had only one start. He played in 14 games, rushing for 283 yards on 74 carries. That 3.8 per-rush average isn't too impressive for a player with his speed. With a year under his belt, I think that speed shows up a lot more this season. Look for a 1,000-yard season from Spiller with a lot of big plays

 

Frd Jackson is such a complete back, I don't think Spiller's opportunities will increase that much.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Bust factor on a guy like Spiller is really low. Plus, based on the flashes of brilliance during last pre-season, there's no way this guy busts out.

 

I think younger players start overthinking; once he's comfortable with the system and can use his instincts more, he'll be fine.

[DanInUticaTampa]

I don't see CJ getting 1k yards unless Fred has a season ending injury in week 1

 

Agreed. I don't see him cracking more than 600 rushing/recieving yards unless there is an injury to freddy.

[Dopey]

Maybe if he made some plays he'd get more opportunities.

Maybe if he got more opportunities he would have made more plays.

[Jauronimo]

Maybe if he made some plays he'd get more opportunities.

 

 

Maybe if he got more opportunities he would have made more plays.

 

Although I do love a good causality discussion, the question is really more about why he isn't getting the opportunities and why the opportunities he has gotten have been less than impressive.

 

Spiller can't pass block. He was not trusted in passing situations. The moment CJ checks in to the game the defense knows its a run. If Spiller doesn't get the carry out of the backfield the linebackers are all waiting on the screen. No one is fooled. Until Spiller can pass block, there is no element of surprise and he will not be productive no matter how many carries he is given.

 

When CJ can pick up the blitz and the Bills can keep defenses guessing, he could be a game changer.

[Mr. WEO]

I think cj will be a playmaker, give it time, look at what mcfadden did last year, took a couple years.

Sorry, was busy watching Blount and Chris Ivory and Best last year.

 

What were you saying? We need to wait 3 years for our top 10 1st round pick to break 1000 yards rushing? Cool.

[bills44]

Sorry, was busy watching Blount and Chris Ivory and Best last year.

 

What were you saying? We need to wait 3 years for our top 10 1st round pick to break 1000 yards rushing? Cool.

 

what does having 1000 rushing yards in your rookie year prove?

[ajzepp]

CJ and Easley are both going to bust out this year...I just got a feeling

[White Linen]

Ralph is cheap.

[mjt328]

I hope this article is right.

 

Unfortunately, I see way too much Reggie Bush in Spiller's game. Running backs usually don't have a huge learning curve, with the exception of pass blocking. Basically, I guy either has what it takes to be a good NFL back or he doesn't, and it's usually pretty apparent within his first year.

 

I just don't think Spiller is ever going to prove his worth as a Top 10 pick. Freddy Jackson is a much better running back in all phases of the game.

[DreReed83]

Judging whether a Player will be a bust after 1 season is foolish. What is it with people here that automatically call a player a just if he doesn't go All Pro in their rookie season.

 

A RB taken in the first 10 picks should PRODUCE IMMEDIATELY. It's not like a QB where theres a huge learning curve.

 

When I look back at the past RBs taken in the top 10, you can tell within their rookie year what kind of player they'd turn out to be

[San Jose Bills Fan]

A RB taken in the first 10 picks should PRODUCE IMMEDIATELY. It's not like a QB where theres a huge learning curve.

 

When I look back at the past RBs taken in the top 10, you can tell within their rookie year what kind of player they'd turn out to be

I agree with you.

 

I would say as a general rule, that any Top 10 pick, especially a running back, should contribute "significantly" in their first year.

 

I didn't hate the Spiller pick and I still support him and hope for the best but IMO, it's impossible to argue that Spiller didn't have a very disappointing rookie season.

 

That said, I make no predictions for the future.

 

 

[Defend Greece]

I think it all comes down to pass blocking and how chan can get him the ball. If he can improve and no longer be a liability, the game changing plays will happen. It's just all about percentages and opportunities.

 

Here are some numbers for the top 10 guys in the league last season as far as the number of 20+ runs go:

 

Player | Attempts | 20+ runs | % of 20+ runs

Darren McFadden | 223 | 14 | 6.278026906

Ahmad Bradshaw | 276 | 13 | 4.710144928

Chris Johnson | 316 | 13 | 4.113924051

Arian Foster | 327 | 12 | 3.669724771

Rashard Mendenhall | 324 | 11 | 3.395061728

LeGarrette Blount | 201 | 10 | 4.975124378

Jamaal Charles | 230 | 10 | 4.347826087

Brandon Jacobs | 147 | 10 | 6.802721088

Matt Forte | 237 | 9 | 3.797468354

Adrian Peterson | 283 | 9 | 3.180212014

 

 

Now spllier's:

CJ Spiller | 74 | 1 | 1.351351351

 

He only had 1 run of 20+... but he did have 2 other runs of 19 yds. Add that and his percentage becomes much more respectable at about 4%.

 

CJ Spiller | 74 | 3 | 4.054054054

 

The point I'm trying to make is that if he gets opportunities the big plays will come. They happen about every 5% of the time for the top guys so it is a small percentage of the time.

 

Now let's just hope he learns how to block and/or chan can give him more...

What about muff/fumbles per kr

[vincec]

Maybe if he got more opportunities he would have made more plays.

In the NFL, you have to earn your time on the field. You can't control the number of plays you get. You can control what you do when you are out there. If you do good things when you have an opportunity, you get more opportunities. That's the way it works. Coaches aren't going to give you lots of playing time hoping that you start showing something. Coaches are trying to win and can't waste plays hoping to see something from Spiller.

 

Although I do love a good causality discussion, the question is really more about why he isn't getting the opportunities and why the opportunities he has gotten have been less than impressive.

 

Spiller can't pass block. He was not trusted in passing situations. The moment CJ checks in to the game the defense knows its a run. If Spiller doesn't get the carry out of the backfield the linebackers are all waiting on the screen. No one is fooled. Until Spiller can pass block, there is no element of surprise and he will not be productive no matter how many carries he is given.

 

When CJ can pick up the blitz and the Bills can keep defenses guessing, he could be a game changer.

I think this pass blocking this is a big red herring. Running back is one of the easiest positions to make the transition from the college to the NFL at. If you can run, you can run. Saying that his poor pass blocking is causing him to average almost a full yard less per carry that Jackson because defenses are keying on him is a stretch. I wonder if Adrian Peterson needs "the element of surprise" to be a threat in the running game. How were his rushing averages when Tavaris Jackson was at QB and Minny could throw the ball?

 

Spiller needs to work on his running just as much as his pass blocking if he's going to see the field and remotely justify his draft position.

Edited May 27, 2011 by vincec