Bills' Fitzpatrick Ranks Poorly Under Pressure

[K-9]

Agreed.

 

Can anyone tell me the data source this guy is using? I read the article quickly, but didn't see any documentation to go with the stats.

 

Good luck. I asked earlier how the author defines pressure. Does he define it only in terms of blitzes? Beating a blitz isn't the same as beating pressure.

 

Someone else in the thread suggested he defined it by "defenders in the backfield." If that's the case I don't see how anyone can put any stock into anything this guy comes up with.

 

Anyway if you find that data source please post it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Green Lightning]

This response is about what I expected...you state the obvious that all QB's stats are worse under the pressure while completely ignoring the actual point of the article to somehow dismiss its value. The article is about comparing all the QB's under the same pressure...and Fitz is among the worst in the league at it. So just stating the obvious that all QB's perform lower under pressure then without pressure does not dismiss Fitzs very poor performance in comparison to all the other QB's in the league under pressure. People like you like to dismiss facts and go with biased opinion, lol.

 

BREAKING NEWS: In the NFL QB's will be facing pressure a lot because thats what defenses do. If your QB can't handle that, then thats a problem.

 

Exactly what I expected from you Alpha. So you trust you little article and precious stats. I'm with you 100%. By your argument and by what the article says....in the AFC East, only Brady is better that Fitz under pressure. So what's your beef with Fitz again?

[Lurker]

Good luck. I asked earlier how the author defines pressure. Does he define it only in terms of blitzes? Beating a blitz isn't the same as beating pressure.

 

Someone else in the thread suggested he defined it by "defenders in the backfield." If that's the case I don't see how anyone can put any stock into anything this guy comes up with.

If that is indeed the case, what did he do...watch video of every single snap for each QB? Highly doubtful.

 

Anbody know if Elias provides this kind of detail?

[Orton's Arm]

I think a large portion of the issue is that they are not statistical facts because it is an opinion as to what determines "pressure." Or at least that's an argument against it.

 

Also, the grading system seems to involve more than the "statistical facts" that are claimed.

 

As I have stated previously, some of the stats show well for Fitz. He's one of the best at sack % when pressured. He's above average at interception % when pressured. This tells me Fitz gets the ball out when pressured without taking a loss and without creating turnovers. He makes the smart play and lives for another down.

 

I think these numbers show exactly what we thought of Fitz, he's an average QB/athlete with great intelligence.

 

 

 

I think that range seems about right.

I'd like to make a comment about the bolded statement. Consider a neighborhood with 100 people. 98 of them earn $50,000 a year, one of them earns $70,000 a year, and one of them is Bill Gates, who earns $1 billion a year. The average income for the neighborhood is slightly over $10 million a year, because of the effect Gate's income has on the average. The guy making $70 K a year could be described as having a below average income for the neighborhood, because that $70K a year is significantly less than the neighborhood average of $10 million a year. But this guy's income is above the median, because he earns more money than anyone else in the neighborhood except for Bill.

 

We face something similar with respect to Fitz's interception percentage when under pressure. There are a few quarterbacks with very high/bad INT under pressure stats. Brett Favre, for example, was intercepted a whopping 7% of the time he was under pressure. A few quarterbacks like that can distort the average, much like Gates' ridiculously high income distorted the average income for the above-described neighborhood. That's why it's better to use the median rather than the average when deciding where any given QB stands. Fitz had the 22nd best ranking (out of 34 QBs total) for the INTs under pressure stat. There is nothing praiseworthy about that! (Unless the discussion is about how Fitz would be a solid backup.)

 

I agree with your assessment that Fitz makes good decisions, and that he's somewhere between the 15th and 25th best QB in the league. Yes, he has limitations. He'd be better off if he had a stronger arm, bigger hands, and so forth. But I don't see his physical limitations as being the primary reason for his mediocre stats. If (for example) he threw the ball with Montana-like touch and accuracy for short and intermediate throws, but was inaccurate on deep throws, then people could legitimately blame his physical limitations. Fitz is a guy who will make the right decision, and will throw it to the guy he's supposed to throw it to. But the throw will often be inaccurate, even if it's a short or intermediate throw. Fitz's good decision-making and awareness is why he did so well at avoiding sacks. His lack of throwing accuracy is why he had mediocre or poor showings in the measurements which involved accuracy; including INT percentage under pressure, completion percentage under pressure, and his overall performance grade when under pressure. That lack of throwing accuracy also shows up in his career yards per attempt stat (which is worse than Trent Edwards'), and his yards per attempt stat for this past season (which was only modestly higher than Edwards' career average). Typically, QBs with major accuracy issues at this stage in their careers don't correct them. That's why I think Fitz has hit his ceiling.

[John from Riverside]

I get a little confused with some arguments posters make on this board.

 

The author of this article presents an argument, then through statistical data makes a conclusion about 34 different quarterbacks. That in the world, is known as a logical argument. There is no biases there. He isn't out to just get Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is the conclusion he game up with after looking at STATISTICAL FACTS. He even goes so far as to show all of his data, rather then just make this blanket statement without providing the evidence.

 

Therefore, in a logical argument, the burden of proof now falls to the people who dismiss his claims. And proof is not "I feel" or "I see" statements. 500 years ago people "saw" a flat Earth, that didn't make it true. Again, the argument is how Ryan Fitzpatrick preforms under pressure and if you believe he preforms well under pressure(that would be the counter argument) then by all means present your case and support it.

 

All these blanket statements about stats not meaning anything is hog wash. Statistically the majority of Trent Edwards passes were under 15 yards. Do you not think that helps the opposing DC to game plan against him? Maybe just a little?

 

Because quite frankly....the OP's post with the "proving data" carrys about as much want as the "I feel" and "I think" crowd. THE DATA IS FLAWED

 

I'd like to make a comment about the bolded statement. Consider a neighborhood with 100 people. 98 of them earn $50,000 a year, one of them earns $70,000 a year, and one of them is Bill Gates, who earns $1 billion a year. The average income for the neighborhood is slightly over $10 million a year, because of the effect Gate's income has on the average. The guy making $70 K a year could be described as having a below average income for the neighborhood, because that $70K a year is significantly less than the neighborhood average of $10 million a year. But this guy's income is above the median, because he earns more money than anyone else in the neighborhood except for Bill.

 

We face something similar with respect to Fitz's interception percentage when under pressure. There are a few quarterbacks with very high/bad INT under pressure stats. Brett Favre, for example, was intercepted a whopping 7% of the time he was under pressure. A few quarterbacks like that can distort the average, much like Gates' ridiculously high income distorted the average income for the above-described neighborhood. That's why it's better to use the median rather than the average when deciding where any given QB stands. Fitz had the 22nd best ranking (out of 34 QBs total) for the INTs under pressure stat. There is nothing praiseworthy about that! (Unless the discussion is about how Fitz would be a solid backup.)

 

I agree with your assessment that Fitz makes good decisions, and that he's somewhere between the 15th and 25th best QB in the league. Yes, he has limitations. He'd be better off if he had a stronger arm, bigger hands, and so forth. But I don't see his physical limitations as being the primary reason for his mediocre stats. If (for example) he threw the ball with Montana-like touch and accuracy for short and intermediate throws, but was inaccurate on deep throws, then people could legitimately blame his physical limitations. Fitz is a guy who will make the right decision, and will throw it to the guy he's supposed to throw it to. But the throw will often be inaccurate, even if it's a short or intermediate throw. Fitz's good decision-making and awareness is why he did so well at avoiding sacks. His lack of throwing accuracy is why he had mediocre or poor showings in the measurements which involved accuracy; including INT percentage under pressure, completion percentage under pressure, and his overall performance grade when under pressure. That lack of throwing accuracy also shows up in his career yards per attempt stat (which is worse than Trent Edwards'), and his yards per attempt stat for this past season (which was only modestly higher than Edwards' career average). Typically, QBs with major accuracy issues at this stage in their careers don't correct them. That's why I think Fitz has hit his ceiling.

 

Finally a post that actually makes some sense.....

 

It could be entirely true that Fitz has hit his ceiling....which makes it all the more important to biuld up the team around him (temporarily till the next guy is found)

 

But you do have someone good enough to step out onto the field on Sunday for now and lead this team.

[K-9]

If that is indeed the case, what did he do...watch video of every single snap for each QB? Highly doubtful.

 

Anbody know if Elias provides this kind of detail?

 

If you visit their site they make it sound like their staff watch all the games. In an AOL article (hyper-linked on their site) they claim that NFL teams have told them how remarkable they are. From my own experience I feel comfortable saying that NFL teams would put absolutely no stock in these stats. But they claim otherwise so who knows? If NFL teams DID put stock in their reports they should be strongly marketing their services to the league.

 

To my knowledge, Elias does not provide this kind of detail.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Lurker]

THE DATA IS FLAWED

I must be getting old. I forgot these bozos are the ones that use network TV video to produce their "analysis":

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/about/faq/

 

"We use TV broadcasts for both the analysis and the player participation data. We’ve been asked a lot how therefore is it possible to determine who was on the field in every position through TV pictures. Surely that just isn’t possible? Well, just because something is not easy doesn’t mean it is impossible. Firstly, the high definition picture from which we work is excellent, and that gives us the best starting point outside of coaches’ film, which isn’t attainable outside of NFL offices."

 

What a crock...

[thewildrabbit]

First of all... take a look at the team around each QB as it is a TEAM sport, and any player is pretty much dependent on others around him to be able to play their best, everything comes into consideration here, coaching, scheme, other players.What makes me think Fitz can get the job done is first looking at the team around him, bad O line, no running game, only one decent receiver all year, new coaches, new scheme. Call it excuses if you like, just look at that really bad 4-12 team around him and compare that cast to other teams.

 

An important way to judge a player is what happened when different QB's took the field, it really showed how bad that O line really is when they needed to pass protect more then 3 seconds for Trent Edwards and Brian Brohm....both those QB's sucked ass so hard they could turn a hippo inside out.

 

If you TiVO'd any of last years games, go back and watch "pants on the ground" Fitz running for his life against the Jets, the guy was the leading rusher for the Bills that game. Fitz played on one of the worst Buffalo Bills teams ever and managed to pull out 4 wins, all I know is that team goes win-less and pulls a Detroit if not for Fitz and his uncanny ability to escape the pass rush. Fitz has about as much es-capability as anyone I've ever seen play QB in the NFL, if I were to compare the guy to anyone it would be Fran Tarkenton

 

 

This article is for people who like stats, but what the stats don't show is that both Brady and Ryan have all pro tight ends, a better running game and O line, better receiving corps, better coaching and play calling. Both can take a 7 step drop if they need to and at any time. aww hell....Ive watched Tom Brady in plays where the guy has 15 seconds get rid of the football, Fitz had a max of 3 seconds most of last season.

 

I don't need to look at some page of stats to know that Brady and Ryan are going to look better under pressure... simply because they have better options to get rid of the ball while under pressure

,

[CardinalScotts]

Cue the excuses...

all quarterbacks don't play well under a pass rush

Mr Hall of famer three super bowl rings Brady, how did he look in the playoffs with a pass rush in his face.

 

not exactly breaking news, bad O-line = bad qb atleast stat wise- the fact you could compete despite no line actually is a plus not a minus

[JESSEFEFFER]

Would any here deny the following?:

 

"All pressure is not created equal. Quick pressure @ 2.5 seconds (a whiffed block) is not the same as pressure that occurs @ 5 seconds. The first is a play killer where an incompletion or a scramble and run would be a good play. The second is an opportunity in that the play has developed, the QB has had time to survey the field, and the coverage has had a chance to breakdown."

 

If you agree with that then would you also conclude that any attempt at assessing pressure that ignores when it occurred is flawed?

 

Fitzpatrick was hit 80+ times. That's among the highest in the league. That's 80 attempts with a defender hitting him as he was throwing or with a defender one step away. That's over six times a game. A guy like Eli Manning was hit a little over 3 times a game. What would this tend to do to a QB's passer rating?

Edited May 17, 2011 by JESSEFEFFER

[thewildrabbit]

Read this....same source

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/04/22/help-wanted-buffalo-bills/

 

""This was originally titled “Right Tackle”, but given Demetrius Bell (-12.9) didn’t play all that impressively for the Bills it was changed to “Offensive Tackle”. In 2010, the Bills simply could not find an answer at right tackle despite giving four guys the opportunity to win the job. Erik Pears (-0.3), Cornell Green (-4.5), Mansfield Wrotto (-10.8), and Cord Howard (-19.5) all played 60+ snaps but their combined play put them third to last of all tackles.""

 

""Given the importance of offensive tackle play in a passing-oriented league, the Bills must address this need.""

 

 

 

One of the best ways to help with QB pressure is to have decent options to get rid of the ball...

 

""The tight end position was a black hole for the Bills. The tight ends as a group only managed 23 receptions, 187 yards, and 1 touchdown – the single worst production from a group of tight ends in the NFL. ""

 

 

[Dorkington]

I'm more than fine with giving him longer than a year with the current system to "figure it out". He played well enough, and the 2011 draft class had enough questions, it just makes sense to me. Does that mean he's a superstar? Does that mean he's our guy of the future? Nah.

[Doc]

I'm more than fine with giving him longer than a year with the current system to "figure it out". He played well enough, and the 2011 draft class had enough questions, it just makes sense to me. Does that mean he's a superstar? Does that mean he's our guy of the future? Nah.

I'll give him at least the better part of this year. He'll have had a full year in the system and the players around him should be better. If he plays better, great. If not, move to option B.

[papazoid]

first, i have been a Fitz supporter....but after reading this article, i am less impressed.

 

this discussion has focused on Fitz "under pressure"....

 

 

THERE IS ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED of Fitz NOT under pressure that shows poorly....

 

it is "Completion Percentage on Deep Throws"

 

We broke down every pass from the 2010 season, and dropped them into numerous categories and sub categories. One of these was passes thrown longer than 20 yards. Which brings us to the point of this article. A look at who threw downfield the most and who did it most efficiently. 30 deep attempts was the qualifying mark to be considered.

 

Fitz ranked 25th in Deep Throw Completion Percentage....even tho he had the 8th highest Deep Throw Percentage of Attempts. (this is the part where we blame his receivers....lol)

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/

 

then click "deep ball"

[downunderbill]

fitz is this years starting qb, like it or not.

[papazoid]

additionaly, if you click on "blitzed" you will see that Fitz was the:

 

 

3rd highest @ Percentage of Pass Play Blitzed.

 

19th highest @ Completion Percentage When Blitzed

 

19th highest @ Touchdown to Interception Ratio When Blitzed

 

22nd highest @ Pro Football Focus Grade When Blitzed

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/16/pressure-reveals/

[akm0404]

Oh look, a Ryan Fitzpatrick thread.

 

Summary of two sides of the argument:

 

1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a bottom-third quarterback in the NFL

2. But he's better than Rob Johnson, J.P. Losman, and Trent Edwards!

 

Standards, we let them slip a decade ago.

[BobChalmers]

My take: he's willing to throw an incompletion interception instead of take a drive killing sack when the pressure is bearing down.

 

FIXED.

Edited May 17, 2011 by BobChalmers

[Fan in Chicago]

Can those that are bashing Fitz in this post, point specifically to what the FO could have done over the past 4-5 months regarding the QB position ? Be specific. I will even help by seeding this discussion with some ideas:

- Draft a QB: Which one and why do you think that QB would be a good replacement for Fitz?

- Trade before the end of past season (before labor issues): Again, who would you have traded for and why ?

 

Further, what do you think the FO can do different prior to next offseason ?

 

The original article's source data is shaky and this board has gone all in a tizzy about how the one guy who brought consistency to his position does not deserve to start.

[atlbillsfan1975]

I have heard very few (if any?) people say "he is the solution". I have heard many people say hey played better than expected last year and that they are OK with him being the starter this year or until we find someone better. The QB's in the draft hardly looked better to me.

 

I am not "comfortable" with Fitz as our starter, but the sad thing is he's better than the other QB's we've had recently, and better then any available alternatives at the moment.

 

Those kind of stats, or ANY stats are always overblown and usually taken out of context. Fitz had a mess of a team around him, a defense that gave up loads of points, and a pathetic running attack on offense, which meant opposing D's could T off on him against our awful and oft injured o-line. He had virtually no receiving core (except SJ, who dropped plenty of his own).

 

Maybe you'd like the Bills to pick up Rob Johnson or JP Losman, who had better stats and QB ratings, but looked absolutely lost on the field. Fitz is no probowler, but the offense at least looked watchable for stretch's with him at the helm. Have a better solution than him? I'm all ears.

Then keep reading the board. many people on here feel as if he is the solution for the next few years. And they are right, but not because he is good. He is just the tallest midget at QB for Buffalo.

 

I just feel like Fitz will look really good sometimes and others(in the same game) leave us scratching our head. I cant emphasize how wrong i wish i was.

And no i dont want Rob Johnson or JP Losman. But i hope the Bills can figure out a longterm solution at QB, if not we have another decade of losing to look forward to.