Bills' Fitzpatrick Ranks Poorly Under Pressure

[McD]

I agree with everything you said...again, I did not bring Kelly into this discussion, someone else did and asked me a direct question about how Kelly would have fared on this team last year. I respected his question and answered his question with the assumption the games unfolded similarly on which games I believe Kelly would have been a factor that changed the outcome of the game.

 

I like Fitz as a player a whole lot, he leads and plays with guts which I highly respect. But, that doesn't mean I am satisfied with what he did week in and week out on the field. It's great he has the attributes, and I wish we had more guys with those on this team, but that doesn't mean he is consistently doing the other things right as a QB. At the end of the day, the QB still needs to be able to consistently move the chains, score points while minimizing the turnovers, and get his accuracy under control...something he has not been able to deliver on thus far. I would LOVE it if he becomes that guy, I just don't have much confidence in that based on his body of work.

 

Did you even read what I wrote or the article before you responded? I addressed specific variables that have 100% no relevance to this article that people keep bringing up, I did not say no variables. For example as you seem to have missed it, our defense had 100% nothing to do with this article, yet it is being used as an excuse.

 

And you can use "variables" for every QB, but the ones that want to dismiss this article as worthless only apply variables to Fitz and no one else.

 

Alpha,

I think most all Bills fans feel the same way about Fitz. Here's the thing, I know he's not "THE" guy, but I feel we had other needs that needed addressed elsewhere (Defense), and I'm just fine with Fitz running the O for an entire year (well hopefully we have an entire year), training camp included.

 

As for the article, I'll still not agree on the premise that if our D didn't suck as bad as it did, we wouldn't be trying to press the ball and Fitz didn't have to try to make plays instead of just playing the game as smrtly as he could have if we were playing with the lead. If you've ever played the game you know what I'm talking about.

[San-O]

100% agree with you...but like many others, you are only giving Fitz credit for throwing the ball away and none of the other QB's. You act like the 29 QB's in front of him did not also throw the ball away to avoid sacks. He is not 30 out 34 QB's because he so genius to throw the ball away to avoid bad sacks and no other QB's thought to do the same...They all manage to throw balls away to avoid sacks yet 29 other QB's in the NFL were still able to overall out perform Fitz.

 

 

There are really two (2) stats being stated in the article: The other stat some are ignoring is the percentage completion rate dropping more than all others, or dropping more than 32 others? That means Fitz is not only bad under pressure, but also his accuracy or completion % drops more than all but a few.

 

 

"His completion percentage is just a pedestrian 39.2-percent, which is nearly a 26-percent drop-off from his performance without pressure. That is the fourth-worst drop-off in the NFL according to the study."

 

Someone explain this?

 

[McD]

100% agree with you...but like many others, you are only giving Fitz credit for throwing the ball away and none of the other QB's. You act like the 29 QB's in front of him did not also throw the ball away to avoid sacks. He is not 30 out 34 QB's because he so genius to throw the ball away to avoid bad sacks and no other QB's thought to do the same...They all manage to throw balls away to avoid sacks yet 29 other QB's in the NFL were still able to overall out perform Fitz.

 

All subjective man... there's no way to possibly substantiate these stats. You don't know how many passes were dropped, how many QB's played in ideal weather conditions vs ****ty weather conditions, etc...

 

Tell you what, take these stats and measure them against some of the variables I (and others) have posted. O-line play, playing from behind vs ahead, having a good pass blocking RB, having a good TE that can read/run hot routes. You'd get a lot closer to what the original article SHOULD have been like, but it's too damned hard to do, so he just threw out other subjective "facts".

 

Again.... what does "breaking through the line" mean... and who determines it...?

[Alphadawg7]

Alpha,

I think most all Bills fans feel the same way about Fitz. Here's the thing, I know he's not "THE" guy, but I feel we had other needs that needed addressed elsewhere (Defense), and I'm just fine with Fitz running the O for an entire year (well hopefully we have an entire year), training camp included.

 

As for the article, I'll still not agree on the premise that if our D didn't suck as bad as it did, we wouldn't be trying to press the ball and Fitz didn't have to try to make plays instead of just playing the game as smrtly as he could have if we were playing with the lead. If you've ever played the game you know what I'm talking about.

 

I think we agree on this actually quite a bit. Like you I am fine with Fitz as our QB next year, always have been. You can't fill every hole on our team with one draft and I am fine with our draft of so many defensive needs. But being fine with him for another year is one thing, but until he changes my mind on the field, we still need to upgrade our QB position eventually to finally turn the corner as a franchise.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I see where among the 34 quarterbacks, that Fitz was sacked the 6th least when pressured (14.02%). That is a significant stat in his favor.

 

It doesn't appear to me however that Pro Football Focus incorporates this fairly significant stat into their ratings of how QBs perform under pressure.

 

In spite of the fact that they have a chart showing sack percentage when pressured, they barely mention it and don't state whether this stat is incorporated into their overall formula (I just skimmed through the article). It appears that sacks are not factored in.

 

If I'm correct in this, I would say that the study is somewhat flawed.

 

When a quarterback ends up getting sacked, the offense loses that down AND an average of about 7 yards. In that sense a sack is a much worse outcome than an offensive holding penalty which is 10 yards but a replay of the down. This is also not to even factor in that sacks are often big momentum-swinging plays.

 

Football is still a game of field position and if PFF wants to rate performance under pressure, they have to factor in the ability to avoid negative plays.

Edited May 16, 2011 by San Jose Bills Fan

[John from Riverside]

I was the one that took the comment about Jim Kelly and ran with it and asked how would Kelly fare with this team.....

 

Alpha thank you for answering but I dont agree with you

 

- I present that while Jim Kelly's arm strenght and accuracy are much better then Ryan Fitzpatricks Jim did not get rid of the ball as quickly as Fitz does

 

now.....think about that for a minute when comparing the teams that they had around them in their different eras.....

 

Jim Kelly had a line in front of him that he could check off to 2nd and 3rd options.....he had (for most of his career) a safety valve quality TE that he could go to in a pinch......he had running backs that picked up blitzes extremely well....AND he had that defense that made big plays and got him the ball back

 

Fitz worked with a patchwork offensive line....a LT that was coming off a major injury....a center that was coming off a major injury....rotating players at RT and RG....a 1st year 7th round pick starting WR....NO tight end of any quality....and medicore blitz pickup running backs....then they were backed up by a defense that was DEAD LAST against the run in the league

 

I present that Jim Kelly would struggle a bit more then you think with this team as is.....Jim likes to go deep and he wouldn't be able to with this team as it stands (well....but we do have Lee Evans BUT we dont have time to throw the deep ball)

 

Everybody assumes that a great QB makes a team great......this is NOT true....its a TEAM game.

 

I think we agree on this actually quite a bit. Like you I am fine with Fitz as our QB next year, always have been. You can't fill every hole on our team with one draft and I am fine with our draft of so many defensive needs. But being fine with him for another year is one thing, but until he changes my mind on the field, we still need to upgrade our QB position eventually to finally turn the corner as a franchise.

 

Nobody is saying Fitz is the guy of the future (at least I am not) that fact that the bills would have entertained drafting Cam Newton had he fallen says as much.....

 

But I have no problem believing that we can make the playoffs with Fitz at QB

[K-9]

Defenders in the backfield.

 

He actually defines pressure as "defenders in the backfield?"

 

If that's the case anyone who would put a cent's worth of credence in these findings should have their football fan card canceled immediately.

 

An amusing read, nothing else.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[papazoid]

There are really two (2) stats being stated in the article: The other stat some are ignoring is the percentage completion rate dropping more than all others, or dropping more than 32 others? That means Fitz is not only bad under pressure, but also his accuracy or completion % drops more than all but a few.

 

 

"His completion percentage is just a pedestrian 39.2-percent, which is nearly a 26-percent drop-off from his performance without pressure. That is the fourth-worst drop-off in the NFL according to the study."

 

Someone explain this?

 

this was already answered......but, without the benefit of game film....an arguement could be made that the "team" was usually behind in the score, bills playing catch up....the oppossing defense came hard.....and that fitz under pressure, when not seeing an open receiver.... decided that throwing the ball away (incompletion) was better than taking a sack.

[Alphadawg7]

I see where among the 34 quarterbacks, that Fitz was sacked the 6th least when pressured (14.02%). That is a significant stat in his favor.

 

It doesn't appear to me however that Pro Football Focus incorporates this fairly significant stat into their ratings of how QBs perform under pressure.

 

In spite of the fact that they have a chart showing sack percentage when pressured, they barely mention it and don't state whether this stat is incorporated into their overall formula (I just skimmed through the article). It appears that sacks are not factored in.

 

If I'm correct in this, I would say that the study is somewhat flawed.

 

When a quarterback ends up getting sacked, the offense loses that down AND an average of about 7 yards. In that sense a sack is a much worse outcome than an offensive holding penalty which is 10 yards but a replay of the down. This is also not to even factor in that sacks are often big momentum-swinging plays.

 

Football is still a game of field position and if PFF wants to rate performance under pressure, they have to factor in the ability to avoid negative plays.

 

While I see where you are going with this, I don't actually agree with how you are applying it here. The number of times more the other QB's were sacked in relation to how many times Fitz was sacked is not very significant. So while it is great that he is taking less sacks (mainly because he has above average mobility), it isn't a significant difference. It's not like the other QB's are being sacked 50 or 60 more times than Fitz in other words under these conditions. So what it boils down to is on a few plays these QB's may have taken a sack where Fitz got rid of the ball. However, considering Fitz was 9th in the league in INT's despite only 13 starts, just getting rid of the ball isn't always better than taking a sack.

 

I am more concerned with the fact that he had the fourth highest drop in accuracy because a QB who is highly inaccurate under pressure like that will likely throw a lot of INT's which Fitz did.

[PromoTheRobot]

Cue the excuses...

No excuses. Just a question...were any if the last couple of QBs any better than Fitz?

 

PTR

[Kelly the Dog]

I think the stats in the last few games, when we were without Lee Evans and playing all kinds of guys on the OL, with two UDFA and a 7th round pick at WR, really skewed Fitz's season averages on a lot of stuff. He was terrible those games but he had ZERO chance.

[xsoldier54]

The grade is poor, but some of the percentages show exactly what Fitz is/does.

 

He has a low completion percentage when facing pressure, but also has one of the lowest sack percentages on the table. Also, his interception % when facing pressure is middle of the pack compared with other QBs.

 

This tells me Fitz gets the ball out when pressured without taking a loss and without creating turnovers. He makes the smart play and lives for another down.

 

I think these numbers show exactly what we thought of Fitz, he's an average QB with great intelligence.

+1

[San-O]

this was already answered......but, without the benefit of game film....an arguement could be made that the "team" was usually behind in the score, bills playing catch up....the oppossing defense came hard.....and that fitz under pressure, when not seeing an open receiver.... decided that throwing the ball away (incompletion) was better than taking a sack.

 

 

Right: That would be a good play, a play which most QBs are coached to accomplish. I guess you can imagine all types of situational football here, but

the premise is when QBs are under pressure and doesn't take any specifics into account for any of them. There are numerous variables, but many here seem to

be arguing that Fitz is somehow more susceptible to them all: Maybe he is just more negatively impacted by them?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

While I see where you are going with this, I don't actually agree with how you are applying it here. The number of times more the other QB's were sacked in relation to how many times Fitz was sacked is not very significant. So while it is great that he is taking less sacks (mainly because he has above average mobility), it isn't a significant difference. It's not like the other QB's are being sacked 50 or 60 more times than Fitz in other words under these conditions. So what it boils down to is on a few plays these QB's may have taken a sack where Fitz got rid of the ball. However, considering Fitz was 9th in the league in INT's despite only 13 starts, just getting rid of the ball isn't always better than taking a sack.

 

I am more concerned with the fact that he had the fourth highest drop in accuracy because a QB who is highly inaccurate under pressure like that will likely throw a lot of INT's which Fitz did.

I'm just saying that I think it ought to be factored in. I wouldn't anticipate it moving him way up in the ratings but it is a part of the whole idea of a QB performing under pressure.

 

If the study is purely a statement about throwing when under pressure then I would say the study is excessively narrow.

 

For the sake of argument, what if the stats showed that not only was Fitz good at avoiding sacks (which he is and this is important) but that he was also better than average at scrambling for first downs?

 

What's the point of a study which only takes into account the outcome of his throws under pressure when there are times when he is under pressure where he doesn't get sacked and/or where he runs for a first down?

 

I think the fact that Fitz was 8th in 3rd down passer rating (93.2) is much more relevant than this study.

 

 

I guess to make one criticism of the article I would say that it appears to be so narrow as to lose quite a bit of meaning.

[1B4IDie]

No excuses. Just a question...were any if the last couple of QBs any better than Fitz?

 

PTR

Exactly

Choices being Fitzy, Trent, ABrohmination, Levi, LOSSman you start Fitzy.

Fitzy Gabbert Locker Ponder Dalton Kapernick, and Levi in 2011 you start Fitzy

Edited May 16, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[San-O]

 

What's the point of a study which only takes into account the outcome of his throws under pressure when there are times when he is under pressure where he doesn't get sacked and/or where he runs for a first down?

 

 

Those are not pass attempts?

[Alphadawg7]

I'm just saying that I think it ought to be factored in. I wouldn't anticipate it moving him way up in the ratings but it is a part of the whole idea of a QB performing under pressure.

 

If the study is purely a statement about throwing when under pressure then I would say the study is excessively narrow.

 

For the sake of argument, what if the stats showed that not only was Fitz good at avoiding sacks (which he is and this is important) but that he was also better than average at scrambling for first downs?

 

What's the point of a study which only takes into account the outcome of his throws under pressure when there are times when he is under pressure where he doesn't get sacked and/or where he runs for a first down?

 

I think the fact that Fitz was 8th in 3rd down passer rating (93.2) is much more relevant than this study.

 

 

I guess to make one criticism of the article I would say that it appears to be so narrow as to lose quite a bit of meaning.

 

Passer rating on third down and third down conversions is not the same thing. Completing a pass for 5 yards on 3rd and 8 helps your passer rating but not the team.

 

None the less, I hope Fitz elevates his game this year as I do feel he is a good leader and sets a great example of how to play, but I just haven't seen enough out of him as a passer to think his ceiling is much higher than what he did last year.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Oh yes.....fans that root for Fitz have a complete lack of knowledge of the game....surrrrrre

 

- 3000 yard passer

- Led a 1st year starter to break Bill Brooks TD record

- Has complete control of the offense.....as shown in how when he wasn't playing the offense complete fell apart (did you SEE what happened when Brohm started?)

- Has the complete trust in his teamates....especially the starters which is where it counts the most

 

 

Fitzy will never be confused with Tom Brady, Payton Manning, etc etc etc but he is a good enough starting QB until we get our hands on a QB of the future....thank god the people that run this team recognize that reaching for a QB would have been a horrible mistake when they can draft quality defense to keep putting the ball back in Fitzy's hands.

Stats are great.

But time and time again Fitz showed why he is a back up. Under pressure, not just a 300lb line man, he crumbles.

Next year IF the bills are in the play off hunt he will let us down. I wish it wasnt the case. Trust me i do. But he just reeks of a guy that is great when it doesnt count really.

[John from Riverside]

Passer rating on third down and third down conversions is not the same thing. Completing a pass for 5 yards on 3rd and 8 helps your passer rating but not the team.

 

None the less, I hope Fitz elevates his game this year as I do feel he is a good leader and sets a great example of how to play, but I just haven't seen enough out of him as a passer to think his ceiling is much higher than what he did last year.

 

Well...without even looking at the stats (because as i said i dont put a lot of faith in them) and just be my naked eye I seem to remember Fitz not only having a high 3rd down completion percentage but ALSO his throws were not the type that Trent Edwards used to throw

 

Fitzy attempted to get the 1st down. He was anything but a stat padder

Fitzy also actually tried to score touchdowns when he got into the red zone

 

Stats are great.

But time and time again Fitz showed why he is a back up. Under pressure, not just a 300lb line man, he crumbles.

Next year IF the bills are in the play off hunt he will let us down. I wish it wasnt the case. Trust me i do. But he just reeks of a guy that is great when it doesnt count really.

 

The hypocracy of this post...lol

 

So when a stat shows that Fitzy is a crumbling QB....you support it

 

When someone presents his ACTUAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS.....you waive it off

 

And all the while not providing ANYTHING of substance.....at least I can provide an argument of why Fitz can be succussful but with you its just "he just sucks"

 

Gotcha...thanks for the contribution to the thread

[reddogblitz]

Define pressure.

 

Some of the guys I've just watched and saw them melt under pressure were high on the list, like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and Carson Palmer. I really don't think Tom Brady knows what pressure is. He seems to have all day to throw the football in part contributing to his success. And Derek Anderson and Jason Campbell are good under pressure? Really?

 

Just from watching the games I always thought Fitz was pretty good under pressure. I would have thought he would have been higher than 16 on % of dropbacks under pressure.