51 years without picking a QB first

[BADOLBILZ]

Flacco and Cutler are Ok, nothing special but maybe better than Fitz. Kolb is a backup and Schaub and Brees, while very good, are not with the teams that drafted them. Both have been traded.

 

Schaub was traded for a high pick because the Falcons had Michael Vick. Brees was not dealt, he was allowed to leave in free agency because the Chargers had Philip Rivers. Brees started out slow in SD but he was a premier QB when he hit free agency. Late season shoulder injury hurt his free agent status.

[Orton's Arm]

And hindsight is 20/20. Must be nice to look back and say "I told you so" without putting yourself out on a limb in advance. As has been stated numerous times by others in this thread, you've given no examples to support your position. Who did YOU want in those 51 years?? You're being argumentative for argument's sake and you clearly can't see the logic in anyone's position other than your own. Obviously, you're not relenting and just beating a dead horse now. Provide something other than hindsight GM-ing or move on...

First, I want to acknowledge the truth of the point you're making. Opportunities to acquire franchise QBs are very rare. In many drafts, there won't be a worthy franchise QB available.

 

The scarcity of opportunities to acquire franchise QBs means that when such an opportunity does present itself, you have to seize that opportunity with both hands. 51 consecutive years of failing to draft a QB with their first pick of the draft suggests at least the possibility that the Bills haven't exactly been overly aggressive in seizing such opportunities!

 

But the problem isn't just misplaced player priorities. (Though that's certainly a big part of it.) Short-sightedness, poor player evaluations, and a misguided organizational philosophy have their place as well.

 

In 2002, TD traded away the Bills' first round pick of the 2003 draft for the aging Drew Bledsoe. This was a mistake, because rebuilding teams shouldn't trade away first round picks for older veterans. In 2004, TD decided to use another first round pick on Bledsoe's replacement. To acquire this second first round pick in the 2004 draft, TD traded away the Bills' first round pick in 2005 and its second round pick in 2004.

 

All this resulted in JP Losman, a QB selected more for his physical gifts than because of anything he'd proven as a pocket passer in college. Lots of physical gifts + little evidence of accuracy or mental gifts = bust, at least most of the time. That is why I opposed the Losman pick from the beginning.

 

Suppose the Bills hadn't traded back into the first round of 2004. Rumor has it that the Packers would have chosen Losman, which presumably means they wouldn't have used a first round pick on Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Because the Bills wouldn't have traded away their first round pick in 2005, they could have used that first round pick on Rodgers. This is clearly a case where the Bills blew an opportunity to take a franchise QB. This particular instance was more a case of bad player evaluation than de-prioritizing the QB position.

 

In 2006, I felt the Bills should have done one of two things with the eighth overall pick. 1) If they liked a QB at eighth overall, they should have taken one. I argued in favor of Cutler often enough that I was labeled "Cutler's Arm." 2) If not, they should have traded down. There were generous offers on the table from teams who coveted players like Cutler and Leinart.

 

If the Carolina Panthers were justified in using a first round pick on a QB just a year after taking Clausen, the Bills would certainly have been justified in using a first round pick on a QB two years after taking Losman! While I acknowledge that Cutler has his detractors as well as his fans, his career average is 7.2 yards per attempt. This past season he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, despite playing without an offensive line. 7.2 yards per attempt is borderline franchise QB category, and 7.6 yards per attempt is "you have to declare this guy a franchise QB based on numbers" territory. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Peyton Manning's career average is 7.6 yards per attempt.

 

But even if Cutler reverts to his career 7.2 yards per attempt average, that's still borderline franchise QB territory. A QB like that is certainly a more valuable addition than an overhyped SS who can't cover TEs. Denver ultimately received two first round picks (plus other compensation) for trading away Cutler. I don't exactly recall the other 31 teams lining up at the Bills' door to offer a smorgasbord of high draft picks for Donte Whitner.

 

Matt Schaub was drafted in 2004. He played poorly as a rookie. But he played well in his second and third years, albeit in very limited action. Prior to the 2007 season, the Texans saw enough in Schaub to feel justified in trading away two second round picks for him. He amply rewarded their confidence in him: his career average stands at a staggering 7.8 yards per pass attempt; as compared to 7.6 for Peyton Manning and 7.4 for Brady. While those numbers don't necessarily mean that Shaub is better than those other two QBs, they do mean that he could have been a very good QB for the Bills for many years to come.

 

Between them, Aaron Rodgers, Cutler, and Schaub represent three separate chances the Bills had to find their franchise quarterback. Those chances all occurred during the past decade. If you were to dig back further over the 50 year period in question, I'm sure you'd find a number of other missed opportunities. In the future, I hope the Bills become more interested in acquiring QBs and OTs, and less dazzled by RBs and DBs, than they'd been in the past.

[BADOLBILZ]

Which one of those guys was available in a year we didn't already think we had our guy on the roster?

 

I see it this way, if you do not have an established franchise QB on your roster then you are still looking. If your young QB is too fragile to handle competition then he's probably not your guy.

[BADOLBILZ]

First, I want to acknowledge the truth of the point you're making. Opportunities to acquire franchise QBs are very rare. In many drafts, there won't be a worthy franchise QB available.

 

The scarcity of opportunities to acquire franchise QBs means that when such an opportunity does present itself, you have to seize that opportunity with both hands. 51 consecutive years of failing to draft a QB with their first pick of the draft suggests at least the possibility that the Bills haven't exactly been overly aggressive in seizing such opportunities!

 

But the problem isn't just misplaced player priorities. (Though that's certainly a big part of it.) Short-sightedness, poor player evaluations, and a misguided organizational philosophy have their place as well.

 

In 2002, TD traded away the Bills' first round pick of the 2003 draft for the aging Drew Bledsoe. This was a mistake, because rebuilding teams shouldn't trade away first round picks for older veterans. In 2004, TD decided to use another first round pick on Bledsoe's replacement. To acquire this second first round pick in the 2004 draft, TD traded away the Bills' first round pick in 2005 and its second round pick in 2004.

 

All this resulted in JP Losman, a QB selected more for his physical gifts than because of anything he'd proven as a pocket passer in college. Lots of physical gifts + little evidence of accuracy or mental gifts = bust, at least most of the time. That is why I opposed the Losman pick from the beginning.

 

Suppose the Bills hadn't traded back into the first round of 2004. Rumor has it that the Packers would have chosen Losman, which presumably means they wouldn't have used a first round pick on Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Because the Bills wouldn't have traded away their first round pick in 2005, they could have used that first round pick on Rodgers. This is clearly a case where the Bills blew an opportunity to take a franchise QB. This particular instance was more a case of bad player evaluation than de-prioritizing the QB position.

 

In 2006, I felt the Bills should have done one of two things with the eighth overall pick. 1) If they liked a QB at eighth overall, they should have taken one. I argued in favor of Cutler often enough that I was labeled "Cutler's Arm." 2) If not, they should have traded down. There were generous offers on the table from teams who coveted players like Cutler and Leinart.

 

If the Carolina Panthers were justified in using a first round pick on a QB just a year after taking Clausen, the Bills would certainly have been justified in using a first round pick on a QB two years after taking Losman! While I acknowledge that Cutler has his detractors as well as his fans, his career average is 7.2 yards per attempt. This past season he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, despite playing without an offensive line. 7.2 yards per attempt is borderline franchise QB category, and 7.6 yards per attempt is "you have to declare this guy a franchise QB based on numbers" territory. Not to put too fine a point on it, but Peyton Manning's career average is 7.6 yards per attempt.

 

But even if Cutler reverts to his career 7.2 yards per attempt average, that's still borderline franchise QB territory. A QB like that is certainly a more valuable addition than an overhyped SS who can't cover TEs. Denver ultimately received two first round picks (plus other compensation) for trading away Cutler. I don't exactly recall the other 31 teams lining up at the Bills' door to offer a smorgasbord of high draft picks for Donte Whitner.

 

Matt Schaub was drafted in 2004. He played poorly as a rookie. But he played well in his second and third years, albeit in very limited action. Prior to the 2007 season, the Texans saw enough in Schaub to feel justified in trading away two second round picks for him. He amply rewarded their confidence in him: his career average stands at a staggering 7.8 yards per pass attempt; as compared to 7.6 for Peyton Manning and 7.4 for Brady. While those numbers don't necessarily mean that Shaub is better than those other two QBs, they do mean that he could have been a very good QB for the Bills for many years to come.

 

Between them, Aaron Rodgers, Cutler, and Schaub represent three separate chances the Bills had to find their franchise quarterback. Those chances all occurred during the past decade. If you were to dig back further over the 50 year period in question, I'm sure you'd find a number of other missed opportunities. In the future, I hope the Bills become more interested in acquiring QBs and OTs, and less dazzled by RBs and DBs, than they'd been in the past.

 

Very well put. I don't like to get into specific misses so much because it becomes a messy argument but the reality is that these guys are determined to take it that way anyway. They want to painfully re-hash how we missed on Brees and Rodgers and then turn around and tell you why the Bills didn't take that guy as if it is somehow right to have been wrong. It's crazy go nuts, but that's how you defend an indefensible mess I guess.

[RuntheDamnBall]

DD, you better be over 51 to really care about what happened back in 1960. What happened in the 1965 draft, or the 1981 draft, doesn't mean a damn to me as pertains to the Bills' present circumstances. I care about the here and now and maybe the recent past as it informs the direction of the present. In this draft, there wasn't a QB the Bills wanted where they drafted. Missing the opportunity to upgrade a D.F.L. run defense so they could draft a QB who maybe plays in two years is a waste of #3 overall. I just vehemently disagree with your thesis. Chan is a smarter offensive tactician than any of us here. So if he didn't want any of these QBs and wants to work with Fitz - and feels/agrees with the scouts that the pick is better allocated elsewhere - why should we disagree with him? If he fails, he's out the door anyway. I want the best team, and the QB is only one of the parts necessary for that.

[BADOLBILZ]

DD, you better be over 51 to really care about what happened back in 1960. What happened in the 1965 draft, or the 1981 draft, doesn't mean a damn to me as pertains to the Bills' present circumstances. I care about the here and now and maybe the recent past as it informs the direction of the present. In this draft, there wasn't a QB the Bills wanted where they drafted. Missing the opportunity to upgrade a D.F.L. run defense so they could draft a QB who maybe plays in two years is a waste of #3 overall. I just vehemently disagree with your thesis. Chan is a smarter offensive tactician than any of us here. So if he didn't want any of these QBs and wants to work with Fitz - and feels/agrees with the scouts that the pick is better allocated elsewhere - why should we disagree with him? If he fails, he's out the door anyway. I want the best team, and the QB is only one of the parts necessary for that.

 

We can agree to disagree then. I think QB is more than just one of the parts, it's the most important part in my opinion. If we are split there then we certainly are arguing two different points.

 

As far as the reference to 51 years, there is one constant in that time period, the most important person in the organization. Ralph is still here and it is business as usual. He hired your new GM and new coach and the results seem familiar at this point, drafting RB's and DB's early and more losing and more excuses.

[T master]

To me, the most amazing stat in Bills history and the main reason why they are a losing franchise. Fifty one years without drafting a QB with their first pick in any draft.

 

The last time the Bills were all-in on a QB prospect was their inaugural draft of 1960 with Richie Lucas from Penn State.

 

Ralph has apparently never gotten over that disappointment.

 

I'm going to keep saying it, because it's fact. The NFL draft is a process, not an event. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on a QB. No balls, no babies.

 

From an individual draft pick standpoint, you gotta' love Dareus. But 5 years from now it won't make a bit of difference if Dareus is great or a bust if the Bills don't have a franchise QB.

 

Bruce was here in person before Kelly was . D wins championships ,I believe Buddy has this team on the right track . I think we will see a huge difference in the Bills this year with the addition of coaches & players .

 

But i can't see taking a QB just to take one !! It's like having a girlfriend that you don't really like just to have one if that's the way it is your life will be miserable !!

 

I think we all are underestimating Fitz & i pray he makes every one that thought he was a back up eat every thing they ever said to that affect . Cause i don't see where Gabbert proved by his college play that he was worth what a lot of people here think he was worth a first round pick i just didn't see it .

[BADOLBILZ]

Bruce was here in person before Kelly was . D wins championships ,I believe Buddy has this team on the right track . I think we will see a huge difference in the Bills this year with the addition of coaches & players .

 

But i can't see taking a QB just to take one !! It's like having a girlfriend that you don't really like just to have one if that's the way it is your life will be miserable !!

 

I think we all are underestimating Fitz & i pray he makes every one that thought he was a back up eat every thing they ever said to that affect . Cause i don't see where Gabbert proved by his college play that he was worth what a lot of people here think he was worth a first round pick i just didn't see it .

 

Yes, Bruce was here in person before Kelly. I see how that distinction makes him more important than Kelly. Otherwise I either disagree with or don't understand the points of your post.

[Orton's Arm]

Very well put. I don't like to get into specific misses so much because it becomes a messy argument but the reality is that these guys are determined to take it that way anyway. They want to painfully re-hash how we missed on Brees and Rodgers and then turn around and tell you why the Bills didn't take that guy as if it is somehow right to have been wrong. It's crazy go nuts, but that's how you defend an indefensible mess I guess.

Thanks for the compliments.

 

I think that part of the reason the discussion got drawn into specific misses was to make the point that the Bills haven't had nearly as many opportunities to acquire franchise QBs as one might think. That's a perfectly legitimate point, and I'm glad it was made. But there have been some genuine opportunities to acquire franchise QBs over the last ten years--opportunities which have been squandered.

 

It's also telling that, over the fifty year period in question, the Bills took 20 RBs + DBs as their first draft pick, and only two OTs + QBs as their first draft pick. Running backs often have short careers, and Bills' DBs have a very bad habit of going first-contract-and-out. Drafting patterns such as these are indicative of the larger problem: the shortsighted and incompetent approach of most of the GMs the Bills have had over the years. Polian was a rare and welcome exception to that general trend. (And so, of course, had to be fired.)

 

I think the other problem with this discussion is that people interpret your original post to imply that you're unhappy with the Dareus pick, and wish the Bills had taken a quarterback instead. I realize that you haven't said such things. Nor have you implied that there was an Andrew Luck waiting for the Bills at #3. I think this may be one of those times (of which there are many on these boards) when you have to specifically disavow a certain opinion in order to prevent others from associating you with that opinion. I think that once people realize you're not complaining about the Dareus pick, it will help calm things down a little, and get this discussion back on track.

 

Your main point is a very good one, and illuminates some of core reasons for this organization's decades-long record of ineptitude and failure. The better we understand those reasons, the better able we'll be to determine to what extent (if any) those underlying problems are being corrected. I personally feel that Nix took a disciplined approach to this draft; and that he hasn't displayed the same shortsightedness one (painfully) learned to associate with TD and Marv. But I realize my emotions are affecting my judgment, and that I'm really, really happy with the Dareus pick!