51 years without picking a QB first

[Albany,n.y.]

To me, the most amazing stat in Bills history and the main reason why they are a losing franchise. Fifty one years without drafting a QB with their first pick in any draft.

 

The last time the Bills were all-in on a QB prospect was their inaugural draft of 1960 with Richie Lucas from Penn State.

 

Ralph has apparently never gotten over that disappointment.

 

I'm going to keep saying it, because it's fact. The NFL draft is a process, not an event. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on a QB. No balls, no babies.

 

From an individual draft pick standpoint, you gotta' love Dareus. But 5 years from now it won't make a bit of difference if Dareus is great or a bust if the Bills don't have a franchise QB.

This is a really stupid post, no nice way to say it.

 

So, if the Bills had used their 1st pick on a QB during Jim Kelly's prime, Joe Ferguson's prime, or Jack Kemp's prime, you would have been happier than getting a player who could contribute?

 

So, if in 5 years Darius is a pro bowler and none of the 3 1st round QBs available has amounted to anything, would it have been better that the Bills picked one of them instead of Darius, so that you'd be happier in April 2011?

[Taro T]

To me, the most amazing stat in Bills history and the main reason why they are a losing franchise. Fifty one years without drafting a QB with their first pick in any draft.

 

The last time the Bills were all-in on a QB prospect was their inaugural draft of 1960 with Richie Lucas from Penn State.

 

Ralph has apparently never gotten over that disappointment.

 

I'm going to keep saying it, because it's fact. The NFL draft is a process, not an event. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on a QB. No balls, no babies.

 

From an individual draft pick standpoint, you gotta' love Dareus. But 5 years from now it won't make a bit of difference if Dareus is great or a bust if the Bills don't have a franchise QB.

To say that QB wasn't an addressed priority in '83 is simply false and didn't take into consideration what players were available in that draft.

 

Hunter was far and away the best tight end coming out that year (no other tight ends went in the 1st 2 rounds) and the Bills' tight end at the time was Mark Brammer (who was serviceable) and his backup was Buster Barnett (who wasn't).

 

When the Bills 'passed' on Kelly at 12, there was only 1 team left to pick before they got to pick again and there were still FOUR 'can't miss' quarterbacks left in the draft (Kelly, Eason, O'Brien, and Marino). Even if the Lions had taken 1 of those guys, there were still 3 others on the board. And the fact of the matter is, the Lions felt comfortable enough w/ Danielson and crew that they didn't take a QB. The Lions chose a fullback. It was much riskier to take Kelly at 12, and hope that Hunter was there at 14 than to go the other way round.

 

Fergie was getting long in the tooth back in '83, and the Bills expected that they'd gotten their franchise QB for a year or 2 down the road when they picked Kelly. That he bolted for the USFL made the choice look pretty bad and made the Hunter pick look better.

 

While technically, Kelly wasn't their 1st pick, I'd say it was close enough to put an asterisk next to that 51 years and counting.

[RuntheDamnBall]

The Detroit Lions have chosen 3 QBs with their first pick in the past twenty years. You can really see the dividends that's paid so far.

 

The Redskins also chose 3. Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell. Those dudes just won.

 

Somehow the Kansas City Chiefs have made the playoffs a few times even though they haven't selected a first-pick QB since Todd Blackledge. Ditto the Bears, who made the Super Bowl despite first-round laughingstock Rex Grossman. He was better than complete bust Cade McNown.

 

The Browns addressed their needs with first round QBs Brady Quinn and Tim Couch during the past decade or so.

 

For their storied history, the 49ers have bombed on first-pick QBs like Alex Smith and Jim Druckenmiller. You'd have to go back to Steve Spurrier for their next-most-recent first pick at the position. Somehow they fit 5 Super Bowl victories in-between there without a first-pick QB.

 

The lesson here isn't that first-pick QBs are bad. But picking them because that's the prevailing logic reeks of idiocy. Right here is enough evidence that there is more than one way to do this. If the Bills find their franchise guy anywhere in rounds 1-7, via trade or veteran free agency, or as a UDFA, I really don't care how it happens.

[BADOLBILZ]

The Detroit Lions have chosen 3 QBs with their first pick in the past twenty years. You can really see the dividends that's paid so far.

 

The Redskins also chose 3. Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell. Those dudes just won.

 

Somehow the Kansas City Chiefs have made the playoffs a few times even though they haven't selected a first-pick QB since Todd Blackledge. Ditto the Bears, who made the Super Bowl despite first-round laughingstock Rex Grossman. He was better than complete bust Cade McNown.

 

The Browns addressed their needs with first round QBs Brady Quinn and Tim Couch during the past decade or so.

 

For their storied history, the 49ers have bombed on first-pick QBs like Alex Smith and Jim Druckenmiller. You'd have to go back to Steve Spurrier for their next-most-recent first pick at the position. Somehow they fit 5 Super Bowl victories in-between there without a first-pick QB.

 

The lesson here isn't that first-pick QBs are bad. But picking them because that's the prevailing logic reeks of idiocy. Right here is enough evidence that there is more than one way to do this. If the Bills find their franchise guy anywhere in rounds 1-7, via trade or veteran free agency, or as a UDFA, I really don't care how it happens.

 

The lesson is that 51 years is too long of a time to go without pulling that trigger. It is indicative of the general negligence the Bills have paid to the QB positon. Over that long of a time frame, you can certainly expect it to cost you and that's the case here.

 

You dug around for examples of QB's that didn't make it, as if that really matters. We know plenty of first round QB's go bust. So did Donte Whitner, Marshawn Lynch, Aaron Maybin..............in CONSECUTIVE drafts. I mean, LOL guys. Get some perspective. The Bills could have used their first pick in every draft for the past 7 years and not be any worse for wear than they are drafting sure thing safeties and running backs(DT's?).

 

But for all of that, you have one draft where the Giants, Chargers and Steelers used their first selections on QB's and got pro bowl players. In one draft.

 

Again, the point is that nothing ventured leads to nothing gained. That's all. Why you guys feel compelled to take it out of context is pretty clear........the truth hurts.

[BADOLBILZ]

This is a really stupid post, no nice way to say it.

 

So, if the Bills had used their 1st pick on a QB during Jim Kelly's prime, Joe Ferguson's prime, or Jack Kemp's prime, you would have been happier than getting a player who could contribute?

 

So, if in 5 years Darius is a pro bowler and none of the 3 1st round QBs available has amounted to anything, would it have been better that the Bills picked one of them instead of Darius, so that you'd be happier in April 2011?

 

You know, there is a nice way to disagree. It's not within you to debate, but trust me, I've met you and read your posts and I don't think much of your hyper-emotional and almost-always-wrong takes on the Bills.

 

In those 51 years in question, there were about 8 where they were situated with a LONG TERM franchise QB. 1986-1993.

 

They waited until Jim Kelly was head-to-toe in support braces to take Todd Collins in the second round. Kemp arrived as a veteran and had a relatively short run where he was special. I grew up watching Ferguson, and let me tell you, he was just a guy. He had a couple years where he peaked in the early 80's, but for virtually his entire career he was a back half of the league QB. In no way shape of form a franchise QB.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Dick Drawn

[KD in CA]

You know, there is a nice way to disagree. It's not within you to debate, but trust me, I've met you and read your posts and I don't think much of your hyper-emotional and almost-always-wrong takes on the Bills.

 

In those 51 years in question, there were about 8 where they were situated with a LONG TERM franchise QB. 1986-2003.

 

They waited until Jim Kelly was head-to-toe in support braces to take Todd Collins in the second round. Kemp arrived as a veteran and had a relatively short run where he was special. I grew up watching Ferguson, and let me tell you, he was just a guy. He had a couple years where he peaked in the early 80's, but for virtually his entire career he was a back half of the league QB. In no way shape of form a franchise QB.

 

 

Ok, so since you've done the analysis -- how many of those 51 years did they PASS on a QB with their first pick that in retrospect, they should have taken at that spot. And spare me the Tom Bradys that no one saw coming, keep it to guys that went in the first round to someone else.

[BADOLBILZ]

Ok, so since you've done the analysis -- how many of those 51 years did they PASS on a QB with their first pick that in retrospect, they should have taken at that spot. And spare me the Tom Bradys that no one saw coming, keep it to guys that went in the first round to someone else.

 

What analysis? LOL. The team simply hasn't picked a QB with their first pick in any draft in 51 years.

 

It's just a fact that is not subject to bias and it is spread out over a VERY, very long time.

 

I've got a better idea, why don't you do your analysis, then you can "spare" youself by omitting everything you don't want included. That's how it's usually done here.

[Nuncha]

The didn't NEED a QB. They had GAPING holes on defense that had to be filled first.

[Rob's House]

Since it became apparent that neither JP nor TE was going to pan out, who exactly have we passed on?

[BADOLBILZ]

Sounds more like Whack-a-mole vs. drafting.

 

By comparison......Mike Williams, Lee Evans, JP Losman, Donte Whitner, John McCargo, Marshawn Lynch, Leodis McKelvin, Aaron Maybin, CJ Spiller.........that is some fine draftin' in round one.

 

I'm disappointed that the Bills can't draft worth a damn but the lack of perspective of the fans does bring forth some laughter at least.

 

Since it became apparent that neither JP nor TE was going to pan out, who exactly have we passed on?

 

You tell me. I guess that particularly small segment of the sample size depends on when it became apparent to you that JP and TE weren't going to pan out. You are aware that the owner is the same guy for the past 51 years, right?

 

The didn't NEED a QB. They had GAPING holes on defense that had to be filled first.

 

The Bills had one of the worst offenses and defenses in the NFL last year. They have a lot of needs, defense is just one of them. I think they've been addressing needs on draft day for the past 8 years and at the culmination they seem to have more needs now than when they started.

[ExWNYer]

To me, the most amazing stat in Bills history and the main reason why they are a losing franchise. Fifty one years without drafting a QB with their first pick in any draft.

 

The last time the Bills were all-in on a QB prospect was their inaugural draft of 1960 with Richie Lucas from Penn State.

 

Ralph has apparently never gotten over that disappointment.

 

I'm going to keep saying it, because it's fact. The NFL draft is a process, not an event. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on a QB. No balls, no babies.

 

From an individual draft pick standpoint, you gotta' love Dareus. But 5 years from now it won't make a bit of difference if Dareus is great or a bust if the Bills don't have a franchise QB.

And who, exactly, was that "franchise QB" at #3? Gabbert? Locker?? Ponder??? Dalton????

 

EPIC FAIL.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

And who, exactly, was that "franchise QB" at #3? Gabbert? Locker?? Ponder??? Dalton????

 

EPIC FAIL.

 

 

You say that now, but the Bills last 7 first round picks are utterly useless so I'm not sure if you could do much worse by drawing one of those names out of a hat.

 

I guess I don't get your point though. I just pointed out the fact that it's 51 years and counting and it shouldn't be any surprise that the Bills have struggled to find good QB's and/or be a winning franchise.

[Rob's House]

You tell me. I guess that particularly small segment of the sample size depends on when it became apparent to you that JP and TE weren't going to pan out. You are aware that the owner is the same guy for the past 51 years, right?

If you want to discuss draft picks from the sixties and seventies, then sure, but since 1983 there have only been very few top QB prospects we've passed on without having someone we at least thought was the franchise guy on the roster. And whereas they haven't been the 1st pick, 1st rounders have been expended on RJ and Bledsoe via trade, and on JP. I just don't buy your underlying premise that the franchise has perpetually neglected the position.

[ExWNYer]

You say that now, but the Bills last 7 first round picks are utterly useless so I'm not sure if you could do much worse by drawing one of those names out of a hat.

 

I guess I don't get your point though. I just pointed out the fact that it's 51 years and counting and it shouldn't be any surprise that the Bills have struggled to find good QB's and/or be a winning franchise.

I don't have an issue with your original premise, per se. What I do have an issue with is making that point THIS year. I get it if they had passed on an Andrew Luck "can't miss" type but, come on, passing on Dareus at #3 for any of these crapshoots would've been insane. And while they may not have taken a QB first in 51 years, that also wasn't a realistic option all of those years either, was it? Not to mention that they hardly needed to draft a QB first during the heyday of Fergy and Kelly. If you don't get my point now, I guess you won't ever. That's fine. You're entitled to your opinion.

[RuntheDamnBall]

But for all of that, you have one draft where the Giants, Chargers and Steelers used their first selections on QB's and got pro bowl players. In one draft.

 

Again, the point is that nothing ventured leads to nothing gained. That's all. Why you guys feel compelled to take it out of context is pretty clear........the truth hurts.

Because this is an inherently context-free statement you're making. Unless the Bills had the #1 overall pick every draft, what would you have them do. Tell me, in this "one draft where the Giants, Chargers and Steelers used their first selections on QB's and got pro bowl players," which QB would you have had the Bills rush to the podium to select at #13 overall? Unless the answer was a major reach by anyone's standards for Matt Schaub the answer is a #13 pick on JP Losman instead of a pick in the 20s. I suppose they don't lose so badly by giving up other picks for JP. OTOH, if, for example, the Ravens had another pick before they selected Flacco, would that make them foolish for not having taken him with their first pick? Of course not.

 

Every draft is different, and every player comes into a different situation. It is not as easy as plugging in first-pick QB and "voila, playoffs."

[BADOLBILZ]

Because this is an inherently context-free statement you're making. Unless the Bills had the #1 overall pick every draft, what would you have them do. Tell me, in this "one draft where the Giants, Chargers and Steelers used their first selections on QB's and got pro bowl players," which QB would you have had the Bills rush to the podium to select at #13 overall? Unless the answer was a major reach by anyone's standards for Matt Schaub the answer is a #13 pick on JP Losman instead of a pick in the 20s. I suppose they don't lose so badly by giving up other picks for JP. OTOH, if, for example, the Ravens had another pick before they selected Flacco, would that make them foolish for not having taken him with their first pick? Of course not.

 

Every draft is different, and every player comes into a different situation. It is not as easy as plugging in first-pick QB and "voila, playoffs."

 

Every draft is not an isolated event. Drafting is a process in general. The Bills don't get that. That's the point I was making at the outset.

 

Each draft is just an extension of the one before. How Bills fans can watch the Bills blow 8 drafts in a row and see each one as an isolated incident defies comprehension. It's collective amnesia. Right now, Bills fans are in love with Dareus. If he shows up 30 pounds overweight and holds out of camp, he will be on the fast track with all the other can't miss prospects they have drafted in the past 8 years.

 

I think Dareus is a great pick, but check his stats at Alabama. They are very underwhelming. There really is no reason to hold him in higher regard than so many other busts that came before him. I'm not here to dog Dareus, the collective amnesia is perplexing though. Has there been a proclamation that no QB selected after Dareus will have as much impact as Dareus?

[BADOLBILZ]

I don't have an issue with your original premise, per se. What I do have an issue with is making that point THIS year. I get it if they had passed on an Andrew Luck "can't miss" type but, come on, passing on Dareus at #3 for any of these crapshoots would've been insane. And while they may not have taken a QB first in 51 years, that also wasn't a realistic option all of those years either, was it? Not to mention that they hardly needed to draft a QB first during the heyday of Fergy and Kelly. If you don't get my point now, I guess you won't ever. That's fine. You're entitled to your opinion.

 

As I stated at the outset of this thread, it is a mistake to view each draft as an isolated event. You are still talking about THIS year so we are arguing macro-management versus micro and you clearly don't see how the micro approach has been working out. I've said it about a dozen times in this thread, the Bills could have taken a QB with their first pick in the last 7 drafts and not be any worse off for it. Yet, in 51 years they haven't done that once. You are hung up on the idea that Dareus is the home run pick they've been waiting for. That remains to be seen. A year from now he could be the next Maybin and we couid be talking about the EIGHT years the Bills could have taken a QB first and not be worse off.

[Orton's Arm]

No, I don't assume that. Obviously, plenty of franchise QB's go later. But 51 years is a pattern of negligence. I don't know if you can expect more luck than picking up a franchise QB in Jack Kemp off the scrap heap or getting lucky that Jim Kelly was there with that second pick in 1983 and not coincidentally those two QB's are the only thing between the Bills and 50 years of no sustained success whatsoever.

 

By comparison, they've drafted a dozen RB's with that pick. Lotta' DB's too. Just sayin' on that though.

I agree with your larger point: over the last 40+ years, the Bills' draft day priorities have been misplaced and misguided. But this year, there wasn't a QB who deserved to go third overall, which means Dareus was the right pick. Hopefully the Bills will find a franchise QB in next year's draft, even if it means trading up. Because you're right: until this team gets a franchise QB, it isn't going to be a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

 

Your post prompted me to look at the first player the Bills drafted each year, starting in 1967. Below is a list of the positions the Bills addressed with their first pick in the draft.

 

RB: 10 (including 9 first rounders)

DL: 7

DB: 10

WR: 7 (including 5 first rounders)

OT: 2

Interior OL: 2

LB: 4

TE: 3

QB: 0

 

That's ten running backs! Ten defensive backs! Zero quarterbacks, and only two offensive tackles! (Of those two offensive tackles, one was John Fina, the other Mike Williams.) This is not the right way to build a football team!!

[BADOLBILZ]

I agree with your larger point: over the last 40+ years, the Bills' draft day priorities have been misplaced and misguided. But this year, there wasn't a QB who deserved to go third overall, which means Dareus was the right pick. Hopefully the Bills will find a franchise QB in next year's draft, even if it means trading up. Because you're right: until this team gets a franchise QB, it isn't going to be a serious contender to win the Super Bowl.

 

Your post prompted me to look at the first player the Bills drafted each year, starting in 1967. Below is a list of the positions the Bills addressed with their first pick in the draft.

 

RB: 10 (including 9 first rounders)

DL: 7

DB: 10

WR: 7 (including 5 first rounders)

OT: 2

Interior OL: 2

LB: 4

TE: 3

QB: 0

 

That's ten running backs! Ten defensive backs! Zero quarterbacks, and only two offensive tackles! (Of those two offensive tackles, one was John Fina, the other Mike Williams.) This is not the right way to build a football team!!

 

It's funny how much energy fans exert trying to defend the organization when there is a clear deficiency in their draft approach. I think a 50 year sample is adequate enough to lodge a complaint. This is tangible, unbiased data that reflects a problem. Twenty DB/RB and nary a QB. That's laughable.

[Beerball]

To me, the most amazing stat in Bills history and the main reason why they are a losing franchise. Fifty one years without drafting a QB with their first pick in any draft.

 

The last time the Bills were all-in on a QB prospect was their inaugural draft of 1960 with Richie Lucas from Penn State.

 

Ralph has apparently never gotten over that disappointment.

 

I'm going to keep saying it, because it's fact. The NFL draft is a process, not an event. Sometimes you gotta take a chance on a QB. No balls, no babies.

 

From an individual draft pick standpoint, you gotta' love Dareus. But 5 years from now it won't make a bit of difference if Dareus is great or a bust if the Bills don't have a franchise QB.

Offer some examples. Who would you have taken this year at #3? Gabbert? Locker?

 

Who would you have taken last year at #9? Tebow? Clausen?

 

2009 @ 11? No first round QBs after Sanchez @ 5.

 

2008 we picked 11, Flacco went 18 to Baltimore. Would you have taken a small school QB with the #11 pick without the aid of hindsight?

 

2007 we took Lynch at 12. Quinn went at 22. Would you prefer that pick? Kolb went 36, Beck 40. Prefer one of them at 12?

 

2006 we took Whitner. Leinart went a couple picks later, Cutler next. You might want Cutler...not me then, not me now.

 

2005 our first pick was Roscoe #55. Charlie Frye was the first QB taken after that selection at 67.

 

2004 we took Evansat 13, the next QB chosen was Losman. Was there another QB who should have been drafted ahead of Losman? Schaub is the next QB drafted, but not until pick 90. Should the Bills have picked him at 13?

 

2003 we took Willis at 23, Dave Ragone is the first QB I see after that pick. He was taken at 88.

 

2002 we took Williams at 4, Patrick Ramsey was taken at pick 32. Would he have made sense at 4?

 

In 2001 we had pick 21. Brees went at pick 33. That's a no brainer today. Was it then?

 

 

That's 11 examples and I see one hindsight pick (Brees) and 1 that I'm sure many would want (Cutler). What your asking for says easy, does hard.