BillsVet Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 gotta see who the next Mike Mamula is before deciding? good NFL talent evaluators base the evalautions of the players at the top of the draft on their play on the field - which tends to result in the selection of "football" players letting the combine dictate slotting results in workout warriors being selected like Mamula, Maybin, etc Play on the field is the major indicator of a player's success, but it's not the only one. No one's looking for a workout warrior who knows the events and if you want to put words in my mouth, go ahead. But if I'm drafting a player 3rd, he'd better be more than just someone who shows up on tape. He'd better have a great work ethic and fit whatever scheme Buffalo is looking to run, particularly on defense. It would also be nice to see free agency transpire before the draft, but we know that may not happen.
DrDawkinstein Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Here's the thing, if Cam Newton is widely regarded as good enough to take at #3 (which apparently he already is). He's good enough to take at #1 or #2. I get the sense here that people think the Bills will no doubt have the opportunity to draft him or not draft him since they're at #3. People need to start realizing that the Panthers, Broncos or a handful of team's desperate at the QB position behind the Bills' pick will ALL be in the mix for Newton. In the end, Newton will eventually be seen as the #1 guy in the draft and either the Panthers or a team that desperately wants him will have to trade up to get him. The only way I see Newton on this team is if the Bills surrender Fitzpatrick and their #2 pick to move up to the #1 slot. Either the Panthers get him or they get a sweet deal to trade out. That's how I see it going down. I agree with you 100% that it is VERY likely he goes #1 overall. It's my biggest fear at this point, not only because I'm high on Newton, but because that will make 2 years in a row where Nix JUST misses out on his QB and it just so happens that theyve been the 2 QBs Ive liked the most in years (Tebow, Newton). Tough for the new regime to build their team when we keep missing our QB. But I guess if he does go #1, that will cause some talent to drop to the Bills... Silver Lining?
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 gotta see who the next Mike Mamula is before deciding? good NFL talent evaluators base the evalautions of the players at the top of the draft on their play on the field - which tends to result in the selection of "football" players letting the combine dictate slotting results in workout warriors being selected like Mamula, Maybin, etc However…the interview of the player is considered as important if not more, than anything that happens in Indy. If you have a top three pick and might (pending the results of the new CBA) have to invest big money in that player (last year's #3 pick, Gerald McCoy signed for 5 years, $63 million with $35 million guaranteed), the interview is VERY important. And if you draft a quarterback at that spot, the money is even bigger.
spartacus Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 However…the interview of the player is considered as important if not more, than anything that happens in Indy. If you have a top three pick and might (pending the results of the new CBA) have to invest big money in that player (last year's #3 pick, Gerald McCoy signed for 5 years, $63 million with $35 million guaranteed), the interview is VERY important. And if you draft a quarterback at that spot, the money is even bigger. Only the Bills would wait until the combine to check out the top 10 players in the draft Real NFL talent evaluators have had their scouts out in the field watching and tallking first hand to the top prospects. It's not like a big surprise that the Bills would be picking in the top 5. but hey- if the Magnificient Modrak only has to leave Florida once for the combine, then he has more time for retirement.
John from Riverside Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Only the Bills would wait until the combine to check out the top 10 players in the draft Real NFL talent evaluators have had their scouts out in the field watching and tallking first hand to the top prospects. It's not like a big surprise that the Bills would be picking in the top 5. but hey- if the Magnificient Modrak only has to leave Florida once for the combine, then he has more time for retirement. Maybe in previous years but not with Nix at the helm......
Nasty Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Straight from the article: So this article tells us exactly what even us Newton supporters have known, and been saying, all along... His only possible red flags are his work ethic (which has been defended so far by coaches and team mates), and his mental capacity to learn a Pro offense (which can be said for all QB prospects). They do a very good job of breaking down and dispelling the "run first" myth. As far as listing his mistakes from when he was 19 years old... All I'll say is that I doubt there are very many of us that would pass this test if someone were to list the 4 dumbest things we did when we were 18-21 years old. I understand the concern on that, but will leave it up to Buddy and Co. to interview Newton and make the proper decision. The "Conclusion" section of the article sums it up perfectly. Amazing talent, good-coachable mechanics, issues are most likely behind him.Go Bills! We thought the same thing about drafting Lynch and the trouble followed him to Buffalo. Great talent and showed his stuff off but I think him getting in trouble took away from his game. I can see the same thing happening to Newton. I don't want him. We need good headlines in Buffalo not distracting ones. Fitz isnt the long term answer, but if we bring in this guy we will start him by the end of the season. We will let Fitz go. Newton will get in trouble in the Offseason and we will be left looking for another QB. With as much trouble as this guy got in it is not worth it. Yes kids get in trouble but they learn from their mistakes and move on and don't do the same thing twice. He thinks he is above the law.
NewEra Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 I'll assume that Mr Wilson liked Rob Johnson, JP Losman, and Trent Edwards - if that helps you at all when considering his ability to judge QBs. Fitz is going to be the starter this season - whether or not we draft a QB in round one, or at all. Given a full season with Fitz as Bills starting QB, beginning with OTAs and continuing thru camp and preseason, Wilson (and all of us) may very well be singing Fitzpatrick's praise a year from now. I certainly expect we will be. 19 and 0 baby!!! GO BILLSSS!!!! Reverse the Curse!!!!! I like Fitz as a stop gap. He's a solid gamer, but I'm not a fan of him leading our team for a gw td with under 2 mins left. I want someone like big ben. Cam is definitely intriguing. I'd be happy if we drafted him. We NEED a true franchise qb and cam has the tools to become that qb. Fitz, IMO, does not I agree with you 100% that it is VERY likely he goes #1 overall. It's my biggest fear at this point, not only because I'm high on Newton, but because that will make 2 years in a row where Nix JUST misses out on his QB and it just so happens that theyve been the 2 QBs Ive liked the most in years (Tebow, Newton). Tough for the new regime to build their team when we keep missing our QB. But I guess if he does go #1, that will cause some talent to drop to the Bills... Silver Lining? How did we JUST miss tebow? We passed on him....and he was selected a good 20+ picks before our next pick. Doesn't make sense
The Senator Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Only the Bills would wait until the combine to check out the top 10 players in the draft Real NFL talent evaluators have had their scouts out in the field watching and tallking first hand to the top prospects. It's not like a big surprise that the Bills would be picking in the top 5. but hey- if the Magnificient Modrak only has to leave Florida once for the combine, then he has more time for retirement. Not to rain on your rain, but the Bills are actually ahead of most teams in the interviewing game by virtue of having met with about 100 prospects during Senior Bowl Week, and having coached a few dozen of them as well... Buffalo had an extended period of time to talk to over 100 senior prospects at the Senior Bowl in late January with Chan Gailey and his staff coaching the South team all week in Mobile. (Link - Combine interview list set) Also, regarding interviewing juniors at the combine (from same article), it seems that the Bills are doing pretty much what the rest of the other 31 teams are doing (except, of course, that they have more time to focus on underclassmen because they've already interviewed so many seniors)... Bills VP of College Scouting Tom Modrak and his staff were finalizing their player interview list for the NFL Combine which gets started on Feb. 23rd. NFL clubs have to submit an interview list to the league so they can coordinate the timing of all the interviews among the 32 clubs...“Right now we’re setting up interviews for the Combine and we’re doing a lot of juniors in those interviews,” said Modrak. ”We’ll go back into the schools and visit with them there too. We make sure there will be ways that we get what we need from all of them in the allotted amount of time prior to the draft.” (same link) Some will crap the Bills front office at every chance, for anything and everything, justified or not. I'd give this new regime a chance impress us with this draft, now that they've been in place for a full year.
boyst Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 I am so sick of Cam Newton and cannot understand why he keeps popping up! I wouldn't mind giving him a chance, I wouldn't mind him on our team. Sirius had a mock draft today of us getting him at 3 and I was a little frustrated. We have bigger needs then Cam Newton. If he even showed as much potential coming out as what it looked like with Ryan Leaf then I would go for it. How can we ignore our needs when the talent is so high on the men playing DL.
RunOJRun Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Build our team until there is a QB prospect worth taking, and dont pass on him then. The problem is that while the Bills may very well be the worst team in the NFL over the course of the last ten years, they're never the worst team during any individual season, so the "can't miss" QB prospects are gone by the time the Bills pick in the first round. (Yeah, yeah, we could have taken Brady, but so could every other NFL team. Nobody saw that coming.) The "can't miss" guys are always gone after the first couple of picks and there will always be questions about any QB outside of a very small handful of prospects (maybe a few per decade). Take Newton or don't, take Gabbert or don't, but expect that improvement to the defense will likely result in a return to the sort of 6-10 to 8-8 record which ensures that the Bills will never get an elite QB until the NFL adopts a draft lottery and/or weighs long-term team performance into draft order.
NewEra Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 The problem is that while the Bills may very well be the worst team in the NFL over the course of the last ten years, they're never the worst team during any individual season, so the "can't miss" QB prospects are gone by the time the Bills pick in the first round. (Yeah, yeah, we could have taken Brady, but so could every other NFL team. Nobody saw that coming.) The "can't miss" guys are always gone after the first couple of picks and there will always be questions about any QB outside of a very small handful of prospects (maybe a few per decade). Take Newton or don't, take Gabbert or don't, but expect that improvement to the defense will likely result in a return to the sort of 6-10 to 8-8 record which ensures that the Bills will never get an elite QB until the NFL adopts a draft lottery and/or weighs long-term team performance into draft order. +1 well said
San Jose Bills Fan Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 The problem is that while the Bills may very well be the worst team in the NFL over the course of the last ten years, they're never the worst team during any individual season, so the "can't miss" QB prospects are gone by the time the Bills pick in the first round. (Yeah, yeah, we could have taken Brady, but so could every other NFL team. Nobody saw that coming.) The "can't miss" guys are always gone after the first couple of picks and there will always be questions about any QB outside of a very small handful of prospects (maybe a few per decade). Take Newton or don't, take Gabbert or don't, but expect that improvement to the defense will likely result in a return to the sort of 6-10 to 8-8 record which ensures that the Bills will never get an elite QB until the NFL adopts a draft lottery and/or weighs long-term team performance into draft order. Well it looks like Baltimore guessed right with Joe Flacco (taken 7 picks after Leodis McKelvin in 2008) and Tampa Bay guessed right with Josh Freeman (taken 6 picks after Aaron Maybin in 2009). I'm not saying that they were can't miss prospects or that we should have drafted them…but both of those guys are ascending the quarterback rankings and were mid-first round quarterbacks. The third pick might seem too high for any of the QBs in this draft but on the other hand, our next pick isn't until #34. Cam Newton really has to seriously be considered at number three unless the Bills have a conviction about someone that is not as highly rated or if they think they can trade down or trade up to maximize value.
boyst Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Well it looks like Baltimore guessed right with Joe Flacco (taken 7 picks after Leodis McKelvin in 2008) and Tampa Bay guessed right with Josh Freeman (taken 6 picks after Aaron Maybin in 2009). I'm not saying that they were can't miss prospects or that we should have drafted them…but both of those guys are ascending the quarterback rankings and were mid-first round quarterbacks. The third pick might seem too high for any of the QBs in this draft but on the other hand, our next pick isn't until #34. Cam Newton really has to seriously be considered at number three unless the Bills have a conviction about someone that is not as highly rated or if they think they can trade down or trade up to maximize value. I understand with what you are saying, but do not agree fully. I will still add that both Flacco and Ryan were the two better QB's in the 2008 draft. Both were drafted in the first round. The 2nd round offered two other QB's, both thought of to be on the same level. Both thought of to be on par with Flacco. Ryan was the only QB that was thought of as elite. The two QB's in round 2 that year? Chad Henne and Brian Brohm. Kevin O'Connell was drafted in the 3rd and will probably make the HOF one day with our luck. Dennis Dixon was drafted 4th round and did pretty well with Pittsburgh. It is easy to say that this years draft could be a lot like 2008. They seem to have these cycles. 2006 1st: V. Young, M. Leinert, J. Cutler, 2nd: K. Clemens 3rd: C. Whitehurst, B. Croyle, 2007 1st: J. Russel, B. Quinn 2nd: K. Kolb, J. Beck, D. Stranton 3rd: NONE 4th: I. Stanback, 5th: J. Rowe, T. Smith 2008 1st: M. Ryan, J. Flacco 2nd: C. Henne, B. Brohm 3rd: K. O'Connell 5th: J. Booty, D. Dixon, E. Ainge 6th: C. Brennan 7th: M. Flynn 2009 1st: M. Stafford, M. Sanchez, J. Freeman 2nd: P. White, 3rd: NONE 4th: S. McGee 2010 1st: S. Bradford, T. Tebow (should not have been here...) 2nd: J. Clausen 3rd: C. McCoy 4th: NONE 5th: J. Skelton, J. Crompton The whole thing works in cycles. How many of those guys were sure things? In the last 5 years how many of those guys are true franchise QB's? My take is that it is too early to tell for Bradford, Clausen and McCoy are already flopping. Stafford still has some learning to do, but is still better then Sanchez. Freeman is doing just fine but has a lot to over come in Tampa. Of the rest of them only Flacco or Ryan stick out as anything that would be worth having on the team. Counting those above who look like they could have come out and done well in the NFL, 24 of them, how many of them would you want? 4? 5? Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Freeman, maybe Bradford? We'll call it 4.5. That's not good odds, and for what it is worth, those odds go about as far as a mock draft does.
Pilsner Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Play on the field is the major indicator of a player's success, but it's not the only one. No one's looking for a workout warrior who knows the events and if you want to put words in my mouth, go ahead. But if I'm drafting a player 3rd, he'd better be more than just someone who shows up on tape. He'd better have a great work ethic and fit whatever scheme Buffalo is looking to run, particularly on defense. It would also be nice to see free agency transpire before the draft, but we know that may not happen. I agree, I would like free agency to happen before the draft as well. If after the draft then FA's can hold our balls (other teams as well) and ask for whatever $ they want. Whoever we draft for our 1st pick had better have the talent and also the drive and work ethic to support such a high pick. No one year wonders. I think it's highly unlikely that we'll draft at 3 or higher in a very long time (barring a trade up scenario). So we might as well make the most of this and draft a guy who will be a pure stud and will want to be with us long term.
Geno Smith's Arm Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 I understand with what you are saying, but do not agree fully. I will still add that both Flacco and Ryan were the two better QB's in the 2008 draft. Both were drafted in the first round. The 2nd round offered two other QB's, both thought of to be on the same level. Both thought of to be on par with Flacco. Ryan was the only QB that was thought of as elite. The two QB's in round 2 that year? Chad Henne and Brian Brohm. Kevin O'Connell was drafted in the 3rd and will probably make the HOF one day with our luck. Dennis Dixon was drafted 4th round and did pretty well with Pittsburgh. It is easy to say that this years draft could be a lot like 2008. They seem to have these cycles. 2006 1st: V. Young, M. Leinert, J. Cutler, 2nd: K. Clemens 3rd: C. Whitehurst, B. Croyle, 2007 1st: J. Russel, B. Quinn 2nd: K. Kolb, J. Beck, D. Stranton 3rd: NONE 4th: I. Stanback, 5th: J. Rowe, T. Smith 2008 1st: M. Ryan, J. Flacco 2nd: C. Henne, B. Brohm 3rd: K. O'Connell 5th: J. Booty, D. Dixon, E. Ainge 6th: C. Brennan 7th: M. Flynn 2009 1st: M. Stafford, M. Sanchez, J. Freeman 2nd: P. White, 3rd: NONE 4th: S. McGee 2010 1st: S. Bradford, T. Tebow (should not have been here...) 2nd: J. Clausen 3rd: C. McCoy 4th: NONE 5th: J. Skelton, J. Crompton The whole thing works in cycles. How many of those guys were sure things? In the last 5 years how many of those guys are true franchise QB's? My take is that it is too early to tell for Bradford, Clausen and McCoy are already flopping. Stafford still has some learning to do, but is still better then Sanchez. Freeman is doing just fine but has a lot to over come in Tampa. Of the rest of them only Flacco or Ryan stick out as anything that would be worth having on the team. Counting those above who look like they could have come out and done well in the NFL, 24 of them, how many of them would you want? 4? 5? Flacco, Ryan, Stafford, Freeman, maybe Bradford? We'll call it 4.5. That's not good odds, and for what it is worth, those odds go about as far as a mock draft does. WAIT A MINUTE MAN! You forgot a VERY special player, a guy with a ton of potential (Tom Brady-like) who hasn't been given a chance to show what he can do with real bullets flying (instead of every day at practice, or in the pre-season games) LEVI BROWN! shame on you! I don't know about Newton, but after watching that youtube clipof long throws, I hope they don't draft any of those Auburn receivers!
spartacus Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Not to rain on your rain, but the Bills are actually ahead of most teams in the interviewing game by virtue of having met with about 100 prospects during Senior Bowl Week, and having coached a few dozen of them as well... Buffalo had an extended period of time to talk to over 100 senior prospects at the Senior Bowl in late January with Chan Gailey and his staff coaching the South team all week in Mobile. (Link - Combine interview list set) Also, regarding interviewing juniors at the combine (from same article), it seems that the Bills are doing pretty much what the rest of the other 31 teams are doing (except, of course, that they have more time to focus on underclassmen because they've already interviewed so many seniors)... Bills VP of College Scouting Tom Modrak and his staff were finalizing their player interview list for the NFL Combine which gets started on Feb. 23rd. NFL clubs have to submit an interview list to the league so they can coordinate the timing of all the interviews among the 32 clubs..."Right now we're setting up interviews for the Combine and we're doing a lot of juniors in those interviews," said Modrak. "We'll go back into the schools and visit with them there too. We make sure there will be ways that we get what we need from all of them in the allotted amount of time prior to the draft." (same link) Some will crap the Bills front office at every chance, for anything and everything, justified or not. I'd give this new regime a chance impress us with this draft, now that they've been in place for a full year. you are correct as it pertains to the lower rounds of the draft I am specifically addressing that the top 10 of the draft is not going to change for good teams based on the combine. Obviously, Cam Newton and the other juniors that will go in the top 10 were not at the Senior Bowl. The Bills should have been scouting these top players non-stop already since that 0-8 start pretty much narrowed down where they would draft and who their targets would be. Interviews, coach interviews, talks with other players about character - all done low profile as the player's season was unfolding. There should be very little to be added from watching thse top players run around in their underwear at the combine (if they even work out) and provide scripted answers at the interviews The Bills draft history shows the Bills have blown it big time in finding "football" players and avoiding the character and motivation issues that have typically caused underperformance. Lack of quality scouting is more likely the source of the problems and not that some unnamed mystery man at OBD wrote the wrong name on the draft card every year.
Buckeye Eric Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 (edited) whilst this is a thoroughly researched article with many great and not so great highlights---I would have to say--take this kid. He is a fantastic prospect. With the Bills recievers catching, not dropping passes and CJ getting balls outside or in check downs---this offense would be explosive. But the defense will still suck. By taking him first the D becomes a two year project and will start to jell when Cams first contract would be up. So, we will be here bitching about them not addressing the D Edited February 20, 2011 by Buckeye Eric
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Here's the thing, if Cam Newton is widely regarded as good enough to take at #3 (which apparently he already is). He's good enough to take at #1 or #2. I get the sense here that people think the Bills will no doubt have the opportunity to draft him or not draft him since they're at #3. People need to start realizing that the Panthers, Broncos or a handful of team's desperate at the QB position behind the Bills' pick will ALL be in the mix for Newton. In the end, Newton will eventually be seen as the #1 guy in the draft and either the Panthers or a team that desperately wants him will have to trade up to get him. The only way I see Newton on this team is if the Bills surrender Fitzpatrick and their #2 pick to move up to the #1 slot. Either the Panthers get him or they get a sweet deal to trade out. That's how I see it going down. Great news. On paper Cam seems to be every bit of the character risk that Ryan Leif, Russell and VY have turned out to be. Leif reported as a total locker room cancer, and Russell and VY as varying extremes of personality and attitude issues. 2 of 3 are on the all time bust list. VY seems headed for a JP Losman caliber career. There was only one QB worth the Bills #3 or better, and he didn’t declare for the draft. Lets see an impact player on the D front 7
Keukasmallies Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 Outstanding reasoning noted earlier in this Topic: Panthers, Broncos and Bills all need linemen in a big way, so Panthers and Broncos actually will draft to fill that need, but the Bills will/should take Newton. It's that kind of reasoning that is reflected in the last several years worth of drafts by the Bills...and where did that get us....?
The Senator Posted February 20, 2011 Posted February 20, 2011 you are correct as it pertains to the lower rounds of the draft I am specifically addressing that the top 10 of the draft is not going to change for good teams based on the combine. Obviously, Cam Newton and the other juniors that will go in the top 10 were not at the Senior Bowl. The Bills should have been scouting these top players non-stop already since that 0-8 start pretty much narrowed down where they would draft and who their targets would be. Interviews, coach interviews, talks with other players about character - all done low profile as the player's season was unfolding. There should be very little to be added from watching thse top players run around in their underwear at the combine (if they even work out) and provide scripted answers at the interviews The Bills draft history shows the Bills have blown it big time in finding "football" players and avoiding the character and motivation issues that have typically caused underperformance. Lack of quality scouting is more likely the source of the problems and not that some unnamed mystery man at OBD wrote the wrong name on the draft card every year. I don't mean to keep raining on your non-stop rain, but I guess you're not aware that NFL teams are pretty much prohibited from having contact with underclassmen with remaining NCAA eligibility until they declare for the draft, which cannot happen until January 15th - and, no matter how unhappy it makes you, the Bills are just as prohibited from interviewing them as every other NFL team. (That's not to say that teams can't scout underclassmen; they can - AND THE BILLS HAVE, EXTENSIVELY!!! I'm not at all clear what it is that compels you to think the Bills have not done so. )
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