dcjoev Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 (edited) <snip> Edited April 24, 2011 by SDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I see why you are now free lancing with bleacher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrFishfinder Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I think it comes down to whether or not Nix & company think either Newton or Gabbert really is their franchise QB. If they are sold on one or the other and he's there at #3, I would imagine they would pull the trigger and not entertain a trade down. All other scenarios make my head spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I think it comes down to whether or not Nix & company think either Newton or Gabbert really is their franchise QB. If they are sold on one or the other and he's there at #3, I would imagine they would pull the trigger and not entertain a trade down. All other scenarios make my head spin. Bingo!!! That's the key to this whole Draft for the Bills...Do they see Gabbert or Newton as a Franchise QB?...That's really all there is to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrFishfinder Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Bingo!!! That's the key to this whole Draft for the Bills...Do they see Gabbert or Newton as a Franchise QB?...That's really all there is to it... Sorry.....I didn't realize this was SARCASM day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I can see the following scenario (and it's probability is a lot greater than you'd think). If I'm Buddy Nix and Cincy calls, I'm saying, "we'll flip flop picks in the first round and you throw in your first-rounder next year and we have a deal." It's a no-brainer for Buffalo because Cincy would get their franchise quarterback, the Bills would still get Miller at 4 and the Bengals first round pick in 2012 would provide Buffalo with extra ammunition to go after Luck next year! There is absolutely no way that any team would give up a #1 pick in next year's draft to move up one spot. At most, that kind of trade would solicit a 3rd round pick, but in reality, it'd more likely be a 4th rounder. Or, even more likely still, the Bengals would say "go ahead and make your pick" and then take whichever of the top 7 QBs falls to them in round 2. I'm sorry if this sounds dismissive, but there's literally a zero percent chance of that trade occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Can you read my mind??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I can see the following scenario (and it's probability is a lot greater than you'd think). If I'm Buddy Nix and Cincy calls, I'm saying, "we'll flip flop picks in the first round and you throw in your first-rounder next year and we have a deal." It's a no-brainer for Buffalo because Cincy would get their franchise quarterback, the Bills would still get Miller at 4 and the Bengals first round pick in 2012 would provide Buffalo with extra ammunition to go after Luck next year! I think your scenario is fundamentally flawed, Joe. With the labor impasse, the NFL has warned teams that it would be risky and ill-advised to trade 2011 picks for 2012 picks. In a bad case scenario there wouldn't even be a draft in 2012. Even though I believe that when the smoke clears on the new CBA that there will be draft in 2012, I also believe that the presently unresolved CBA will have a chilling effect on any trade proposals this weekend involving 2012 draft picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 (edited) <snip> Very good post! I would certainly love to see the Bills acquire some other team's first round pick in next year's draft in exchange for trading down. I think it's a stretch to imagine a team like the Bengals giving up their first round pick in next year's draft to move up just one spot. It's not impossible the Bengals would agree to such a thing, but it is unlikely. The only way I see that happening is if the Bengals are a) absolutely in love with a QB at #3, and b) believe the Bills are in negotiations with other teams looking to trade up for that same QB. I would be perfectly willing to see the Bills move down multiple spots, with one of the other potential trade partners you mentioned, in order to acquire that additional first round pick! There are those who pointed out the uncertainties associated with acquiring someone else's first round pick in next year's draft. But those uncertainties could potentially work in the Bills' favor. For example, suppose there is a 10% chance of the 2012 draft failing to occur. (Thus making any picks the Bills might acquire in that draft worthless.) That 10% chance will reduce the value of picks in that draft by at least 10%. (And possibly more if general managers are risk adverse.) Reducing a draft pick's value should also reduce its price. At least in theory, the Bills should have to give up less to acquire a first round pick in the 2012 draft than would have been the case had there been labor certainty. Of course, whether they'll actually receive a price reduction all depends on the willingness of their would-be trade partner. I like the fact that you're thinking in terms of maximizing the Bills' chances of being able to get Luck. While there is no guarantee your plan would succeed, acquiring an additional pick in the first round of the 2012 draft is highly worthwhile in its own right. If that extra pick results in Andrew Luck, it could substantially elevate the level of this franchise for the next decade or more! Edited April 24, 2011 by SDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcjoev Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 I see why you are now free lancing with bleacher. And your point? FYI... Bleacher Report currently ranks as the 3rd largest sports destination on the web and is a national media partner of Cbssportsline.com & USA Today. If you think that you can get published on a site like Bleacher, be my guest and write an article of your own. I'd be happy to read it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zulu Cthulhu Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 There are more than "6 or 7" teams interested in drafting a QB, especially one with as much potential and hype and andrew luck. That's the problem with your scenario. If Luck is so good that Buffalo should be mortgaging their 2012 draft to get him, chances are the team picking #1 next year isn't going to be interested in passing on him and trading down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JinWPB Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 . the team picking #1 next year . could = Buffalo Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Lol no. The Bengals are a bad franchise, but never in the history of the NFL Draft has a team traded a first round pick to move one spot. You'd think a 'journalist' wouldn't publish the same ridiculous 'ideas' as the delusional fans who make hundreds of 'Trade Donte Whitner and Chris Kelsay for two firsts and a third' posts every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zulu Cthulhu Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 could = Buffalo Bills Sure Buffalo could be picking 1st overall. So could a lot of other teams. Point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hplarrm Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I agreed with some posters who say "the odds of getting Andrew Luck in the scenario that I suggest" are not great. But I'm banking that they're not impossible. I mean, let's simplify things with an example. We all know that at least 6 and maybe even 7 teams need a quarterback in a bad way. The Bills know who they are and everybody knows that Buddy Nix's phone will be ringing off the hook if one or BOTH of the two "top-rated" quarterbacks are on the board when Buffalo is on the clock. I like your thinking that the key for the Bills is seeing Newton or Gabbert picked before choose (likely Newton of the two as he has significantly more immediate upside than Gabbert who MAY eventually be a franchise QB). These two are seen by most from what I have read as head and shoulders ahead of a good number of athletes like Mallet, Locker, Capernick, Ponder, etc who will go later in the 1st or other rounds. If in fact 6 or 7 teams are looking for a QB, then the option becomes trade with the Bills or risk Buffalo or some other team forcing you down the foodchain in terms of QB prospects. However, while I like the potential for a trade down, I do disagree with the thought that the Bills will be looking to the draft this year and probably next to find their franchise QB. Since you are a working journalist perhaps you may have the time to expound on: 1. What is Gailey's record of having successfully trained or even acquired a rookie QB to be his starter? 2. While past actions do not determine future actions, they are a pretty strong indicator of what a decision-maker is going to do. Isn't the Gailey MO one of actually getting vet QBs who often have failed or been busts their first go around and build them into his O approach to make them more successful than before? My sense is with players such as Fiedler, Bulger, Kordell and even Fitzy, Gailey has placed a high premium on past NFL experience which I think makes spending a high draft choice on a rookie QB pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcjoev Posted April 24, 2011 Author Share Posted April 24, 2011 Boy.... tough crowd! I used Cincy as an example because if Cam's gone and Gabbert's their guy, they had better think long and hard about moving up one spot or a team below the Bengals is gonna leapfrog them to wheel and deal with the Bills. If Buffalo does decide to trade the pick and move down, there's absolutely, positively gonna be one team that's gets Gabbert at 3 and if it's not the Bengals, it'll be one of the teams I listed. You can bet your bottom dollar on that! Also... if you're so certain that a team has never moved up one spot in the first round, I'd like to know who your source was for that, because Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have made a living out of this type of thinking for years. It doesn't take a "journalist" to come up with ideas such as this, just a GM with the guts and foresight to pull the trigger before another team does. Trust me, there's been plenty of teams that have been outsmarted by geniuses like Belichick and most of them pick in the top 10, year in and year out, as a result of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 (edited) Sorry.....I didn't realize this was SARCASM day. It was not sarcasm I totally agreed with you...100%... If I was being sarcastic I would use this... Edited April 24, 2011 by KOKBILLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I don't think Luck is as real of an option as everyone believes he is. He still has two years left of eligibility and went back to school even though he was the undisputed #1 overall pick in this year's draft. What makes everyone think that he is going to eschew his final year of school? People assume that he it is a foregone conclusion that he will be available next year. Unless they plan on signing Fitzpatrick to a long term deal this team is going to draft his successor in this year's draft. If either Nix or Gailey are thinking this way, neither of them deserve a job in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 I don't think Luck is as real of an option as everyone believes he is. He still has two years left of eligibility and went back to school even though he was the undisputed #1 overall pick in this year's draft. What makes everyone think that he is going to eschew his final year of school? People assume that he it is a foregone conclusion that he will be available next year. Unless they plan on signing Fitzpatrick to a long term deal this team is going to draft his successor in this year's draft. If either Nix or Gailey are thinking this way, neither of them deserve a job in the NFL. Luck has stated he stayed to get his degree and he will graduate academically next year-That's why everyone thinks he will eschew his last year of eligibility-he's practically declared for next year's draft. Also, there (hopefully) won't be a labor dispute to cloud his rookie season next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve O Posted April 24, 2011 Share Posted April 24, 2011 Teams trade future picks at their own risk. It is not a certainty there will continue to be a draft. I'd be shocked if the Bills traded for a pick next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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