People Tend To Forget Last Year's Picks

[BobChalmers]

I fail to see how a decade of terrible drafting and coaching can't be fixed within a year.

 

You have one part right - FAIL on this "instant evaluation" nonsense going on here.

 

I do hope all the people here who are so damned sure last year's draft was a failure after one season are prepared to come back and admit their mistake in two years when and if Troupe and Spiller and Carrington, and Batten, etc. start having a big impact.

 

Everyone everywhere knows you can't accurately judge a draft until at least 3 years later. There are several articles on that in the national media every year. Kiper, etc. go back and reevaluate their picks every season - again THREE YEARS LATER. The results very different from their first take.

 

IF you have really good intel, you can judge a draft right away on whether picks were reaches/values - but it's very hard to get intel there you can trust. I'll give you that Troupe may have been a reach - since most boards had him further down the list of NT's - it looked like the Bills should have tried to trade down a bit to take him. (No matter what he becomes or how we feel about the luxury of the pick - Spiller could not possibly be called a reach - he was a big value pick even at #9. Argued by many to be the single best player in the entire draft.)

 

P.S. You're going to see a LOT more out of Spiller this year. Last year he missed the start of camp then he sat around on the bench the first part of the season while they were showcasing Lynch for a trade. He wasn't ready to play by the time he finally got in there - fair enough - but he also wasn't put in the best position to develop. He's a good hard-working kid (I have that on 3rd hand personal observations - but I believe it and it matches what we see in interviews). Spiller knows he wasn't prepared enough and is determined to improve where he needs to. He's still crazy-talented - it will start to really show this year with more training and more touches.

Edited April 25, 2011 by BobChalmers

[PDaDdy]

WTF I don't get it..

 

Kyle Williams started at NT.. not Troup.. Williams is our best defender.. Is Troup supposed to out perform him immediately as a rookie? He seemed to do pretty well when they played 4-3.

 

Stroud was playing DE and paid big bucks so they are just going to give the job to the rookie Carrington? Come on! They didn't start paying Carrington until near the end of the season to see if he would improve the production so the guy didn't even get much playing time. You didn't see much from him because he wasn't in the game.

 

Moats wasn't utilized until near the end of the season either. He was purely a pass rusher in college. He is going to take a little time to develop. When they turned him loose on blitzes he was very disruptive and showed lots of promise.

 

Coaches just don't plunk in rookies over highly paid seasoned vets overnight especially when this whole roster was 100% new to them. I think you guys are the ones missing the point and aren't very realistic.

 

 

I'm not sure what it is that you don't get? The best players should start. What is so complex about that concept? It is therefore reasonable to assume that if you don't start....you aren't the best. We aren't talking about QBs where one is making 5 million and the other 500,000. We are talking LBs and DL.

 

If any of these guys were good enough to displace players in the 32nd ranked run defense they would have started and relegated a veteran to the bench or gotten them released to free up cap money.

Edited April 25, 2011 by PDaDdy

[tennesseeboy]

roof is in the pudding. He had better put up a nine win season pretty darn soon. Guys with potential sitting on the bench and not performing on the field aren't going to get us there. Fix the areas where we are terrible and then improve areas where we are mediocre and keeping the players who are good. That's the ticket.

[BobChalmers]

I'm not sure what it is that you don't get? The best players should start. What is so complex about that concept?

 

Apparently the concept that "the best player" may change over time as rookies develop is too complex for you.

 

Most people can grasp that rookies take a little time to catch up to veterans - even if the rookie has more talent and will be a better player in the near term (1-2 years). Rookie DL's in particular don't usually show up ready to play their first year - too much catching up to do in terms of strength and interior "combat" techniques. NT's are especially slow to develop. Troupe did fine for a rookie NT. At this point, there is no reason to believe Troupe can't be a very effective starting NT, which means unless Williams moves to DE, we already have two good players for the nose and would have no use for a Phil Taylor, for example.

 

This coaching staff was also switching the whole defensive scheme to one which none of the veterans had been playing - and the players were new to the coaches - so it took time for the team coaches/management to evaulate all the players in the new scheme. They made the sensible decision to evaulate the previous starters first.

Edited April 25, 2011 by BobChalmers

[Bill from NYC]

P.S. You're going to see a LOT more out of Spiller this year. Last year he missed the start of camp then he sat around on the bench the first part of the season while they were showcasing Lynch for a trade. He wasn't ready to play by the time he finally got in there - fair enough - but he also wasn't put in the best position to develop. He's a good hard-working kid (I have that on 3rd hand personal observations - but I believe it and it matches what we see in interviews). Spiller knows he wasn't prepared enough and is determined to improve where he needs to. He's still crazy-talented - it will start to really show this year with more training and more touches.

 

Bob, I don't necessarily agree wth the above, but let's assume that it is all true for the sake of this discussion.....

 

Selections such as this have killed the Bills. Teams took RBs well after the #9 spot that were contributors. 9 was too early to have selected a situational running back for a weak football team. And btw, I think that rounds 2-7 were pretty good, or at least might turn out to be.

 

Now is the time to find OL, Front 7, and maybe even a QB. I hope they don't squander this opportunity.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!

Edited April 25, 2011 by Bill from NYC

[billsfreak]

Bob, I don't necessarily agree wth the above, but let's assume that it is all true for the sake of this discussion.....

 

Selections such as this have killed the Bills. Teams took RBs well after the #9 spot were contributors. 9 was too early to have selected a situational running back for a weak football team. And btw, I think that rounds 2-7 were pretty good, or at least might turn out to be.

 

Now is the time to find OL, Front 7, and maybe even a QB. I hope they don't squander this opportunity.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!

Well said. That has been my whole point. Are we sure that Spiller is going to be as lost his whole career as he was last year? No of course not. Are we sure that he will never be the 30 carries a game workhorse running back? That is safe to say, in fact until he can figure out how to block in the backfield he is going to be more of a weakness than a strength. Like you said, it was way too high to take a luxury pick, a situational back on a terrible team, who if there was any depth it was with two 1,000 yard rushers already on the roster. They could have drafted at almost any other position on the roster and it would have made more sense than taking Spiller. He might give us one or two exciting kick returns or long runs from a screen pass a year, but it would have contributed alot more to this franchise becoming a winning team if they had a 10 year left tackle, a stud defensive end, etc. than it does having a running back with the potential for excitement all 10-12 times per game that he touches the ball.

Edited April 25, 2011 by billsfreak

[Doc]

I'm excited to see what Wannastache can do with the defense. And if Maybin can't finally produce under him, his NFL career is over.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Tim Graham wrote a bit on ESPN stating that of the AFCE Teams draft success

 

The Bills actually were the AFC East's most efficient club when it came to drafting starters since Modrak came aboard in 2002.

 

Several factors certainly play into that from team to team. Importance of the position, holes that allow for immediate contributions and reliance on free agents to fill out a roster all make a difference. So do the number of players drafted.

 

But, in general, I thought it was an interesting snapshot to share. Because the research was done to put Modrak's tenure in perspective, numbers are from 2002 through the present.

 

Among AFC East teams, only the New England Patriots generated more starts within the first three rounds. No other division opponent found more starts from the fourth round and beyond.

Edited April 25, 2011 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[John from Riverside]

There is nothing in last year's draft to suggest any of these guys will be full time starters never mind difference makers. Any of them may simple be role players their whole careers. If anything last year's draft is reason to draft defensive side of ball ie see last year's result.

 

Just FYI.....there have been several draft gurus saying that had Troup been in this class he would be the top DT.......I have seen it written at least twice

 

Not all positions are equal in terms of value. Guards and safeties are, for the most part, easier to find than OT's and pass rushers. And for as good as it seems Levitre and Wood appear to be, they were 2 of the highest drafted interior OLineman in the 2009 draft.

 

The Bills will get credit for a solid draft when they begin filling the marquee positions of QB, OT, and pass rusher, 43DE or 34OLB, with outstanding players. In the past 11 drafts they haven't found one guy who could play any of those 3 positions. Fine guard and safety play does not make up for it, especially when those guys are found with high picks.

 

Draft value isn't something the Bills have mastered, let alone finding talent high and low.

 

I thought they did ok with moates

 

Also lets keep in mind that you are not going to feel spots with premium players without premium picks....picking just outside the top 10 every year and not making the playoffs really sucks for us.....because we have a team too good to get into the blue chippers and bad enough to be watching other teams play come playoff time.

 

That probably why Nix is so reluctant to trade down......he gets a shot at a blue chipper this year

[Bangarang]

Edited April 25, 2011 by Bangarang

[RealityCheck]

You have one part right - FAIL on this "instant evaluation" nonsense going on here.

 

I do hope all the people here who are so damned sure last year's draft was a failure after one season are prepared to come back and admit their mistake in two years when and if Troupe and Spiller and Carrington, and Batten, etc. start having a big impact.

 

Everyone everywhere knows you can't accurately judge a draft until at least 3 years later. There are several articles on that in the national media every year. Kiper, etc. go back and reevaluate their picks every season - again THREE YEARS LATER. The results very different from their first take.

 

IF you have really good intel, you can judge a draft right away on whether picks were reaches/values - but it's very hard to get intel there you can trust. I'll give you that Troupe may have been a reach - since most boards had him further down the list of NT's - it looked like the Bills should have tried to trade down a bit to take him. (No matter what he becomes or how we feel about the luxury of the pick - Spiller could not possibly be called a reach - he was a big value pick even at #9. Argued by many to be the single best player in the entire draft.)

 

P.S. You're going to see a LOT more out of Spiller this year. Last year he missed the start of camp then he sat around on the bench the first part of the season while they were showcasing Lynch for a trade. He wasn't ready to play by the time he finally got in there - fair enough - but he also wasn't put in the best position to develop. He's a good hard-working kid (I have that on 3rd hand personal observations - but I believe it and it matches what we see in interviews). Spiller knows he wasn't prepared enough and is determined to improve where he needs to. He's still crazy-talented - it will start to really show this year with more training and more touches.

I guess you don't pick up on sarcasm very well. But it's cool, neither do I.

 

Tim Graham wrote a bit on ESPN stating that of the AFCE Teams draft success

I think that this proves how bad our drafting is. It proves that almost anyone can be a starter on a bad football team. Like I didn't already know that from watching this team sink in the last 10 years.

[Green Lightning]

Agree with this post 100%. It is kind of weird hearing people talk about the promise and the potential of Troup and Carrington, when I didn't see anything remotely special out of either of them. I watched every game last year, and yes, I may have been inebriated in one or seven of those games, but I still don't recall seeing them do anything.

 

Then you would have been saying the same thing about BJ Ragi in his first year at Green Bay. He did squat. His second year he picked it up and towards year's end was a force on a SuperBowl team. Thank God you're not pulling the trigger on assessing talent. Troup is going to be a lot better this year and so will Carrington. Not many rooks light it up in year one. Even Bruce Smith wasn't that impressive year one. After he shed some pounds and got better conditioning he was all-world. Suppose you would have used the "bust" label on him year one?

 

I'm not sure what it is that you don't get? The best players should start. What is so complex about that concept? It is therefore reasonable to assume that if you don't start....you aren't the best. We aren't talking about QBs where one is making 5 million and the other 500,000. We are talking LBs and DL.

 

If any of these guys were good enough to displace players in the 32nd ranked run defense they would have started and relegated a veteran to the bench or gotten them released to free up cap money.

 

More genius. Guess they should have cut Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, BJ Ragi, and almost all Pittsburgh linebackers. Christ, get real.

[NewEra]

Carrington, troupe am moats all have a chance to be solid starters in the league. They may end up being rotational players. We didn't see much of carrington last year because they had stroud and wanted to see if he could make the transition to DE, he failed. When carrington played vs Pittsburgh, I thought he did a great job considering he didn't have much experience. One game doesn't mean much, but it showed he can be capable of. Troupe didn't het much time because Williams was our best player. He mostly played 4-3 nt, in which I saw a couple good plays, but probably more bad than good. After another offseason of getting stronger and learning the defense, I expect we will get a better idea of how he will turn out. Moats was a solid pass rusher, thats about all. I liked what I saw and have hopes he turns out to be solid.

 

After one year in which none of these guys played a lot, its still too hard to speculate how they progress. At this point, it's been identified that they all have talent, the question is, do they have to work ethic and desire to be great. IMO, that's the most important thing and right now, and that's yet to be determined.