Da Big Man Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 What free agent market? No CBA, no free agency. I think you might have posted this same information yesterday and as another poster pointed out, if you eliminate the first two games of the season which Trent Edwards started and the final game of the season which Brian Brohm started, the Bills under Fitzgerald were actually better than average on 3rd down conversions. Also, Fitz was a very effective passer on 3rd downs: 3rd-down passer rating 117.4 - Tom Brady 113.9 - Ben Roethlisberger 106.1 - Michael Vick 101.9 - Matt Ryan 100.0 - Drew Brees 96.2 - Philip Rivers 95.0 - Aaron Rodgers 93.2 - Ryan Fitzpatrick 91.8 - Matt Cassel 90.9 - Josh Freeman 85.9 - Matt Schaub 85.0 - Joe Flacco 84.9 - Jason Campbell 81.8 - David Garrard 79.1 - Sam Bradford 76.9 - Matt Hasselbeck 76.8 - Jay Cutler 74.9 - Carson Palmer 71.7 - Peyton Manning 64.8 - Mark Sanchez 59.4 - Brett Favre 58.0 - Kyle Orton 55.8 - Donovan McNabb 55.4 - Eli Manning Notice I said before the lockout.
808 Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 so fitz is at the same level as jim kelly?...... BTW anyone can edit wiki
Alphadawg7 Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) What free agent market? No CBA, no free agency. I think you might have posted this same information yesterday and as another poster pointed out, if you eliminate the first two games of the season which Trent Edwards started and the final game of the season which Brian Brohm started, the Bills under Fitzgerald were actually better than average on 3rd down conversions. Also, Fitz was a very effective passer on 3rd downs: 3rd-down passer rating 117.4 - Tom Brady 113.9 - Ben Roethlisberger 106.1 - Michael Vick 101.9 - Matt Ryan 100.0 - Drew Brees 96.2 - Philip Rivers 95.0 - Aaron Rodgers 93.2 - Ryan Fitzpatrick 91.8 - Matt Cassel 90.9 - Josh Freeman 85.9 - Matt Schaub 85.0 - Joe Flacco 84.9 - Jason Campbell 81.8 - David Garrard 79.1 - Sam Bradford 76.9 - Matt Hasselbeck 76.8 - Jay Cutler 74.9 - Carson Palmer 71.7 - Peyton Manning 64.8 - Mark Sanchez 59.4 - Brett Favre 58.0 - Kyle Orton 55.8 - Donovan McNabb 55.4 - Eli Manning You guys do realize that 3rd down passer rating and 3rd down conversion are not remotely similar right? 3rd down passer rating has zero factor of whether a 1st down was actually achieved on the play. Its just the QB rating on that play, but if the pass is inaccurate and behind the receiver preventing him from being able to advance the ball across the first down marker than its still a fail even though it boosts his "3rd down QB rating". If the pass is thrown to a RB 7 yards short of the first down with no hope of advancing it, it still helps his QB rating. And this was a real drive killing problem where Fitz would complete the pass to someone way short of the marker with no chance for the first down, or to someone who did have a chance to get the first down but he delivered it so inaccurately that the receiver no longer had any real shot of advancing the ball because of what he had to do in order to make the catch (ball was low, behind him, etc). We were in 3rd and long a lot and we had a lot of short 3rd down safe throws as a result, all of which boost his "3rd down QB rating" yet few of which actually got us a 3rd down. So no offense, but I dont care so much about 3rd down rating, I care about 3rd down conversions, and so do the coaches, and we need to get better there or we will never be a winning franchise. Edited April 20, 2011 by Alphadawg7
Alphadawg7 Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 (edited) Except I was responding to the allegation that the Bills were not a good third down team. In that context, 3rd down passer rating is more relevant than overall passer rating. Or to argue from your perspective, if 3rd down passer rating is irrelevant, then overall passer rating is less relevant. QB Rating is by far considered the most over rated and least reliable stat and no coach, scout, or GM puts a lot of stock into it. The reason is because very little efficiency data goes into an NFL QB rating, and those are things coaches also hold high value for. QB Rating doesn't accurately indicate how effective a QB is on the field. It is a stat that is useful but in conjunction with several other measurables, just not on its own. This is a perfect example...the QB rating on 3rd down actually provides no information to how effective said QB was on 3rd down. I can sit back there on 3rd and long and complete 80% of my throws on short passes for a high QB rating while converting little to no first downs. In other words, I would have a high QB rating but be terrible at actually converting the 3rd down and keeping the drive alive. Edited April 20, 2011 by Alphadawg7
Ramius Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 Notice I said before the lockout. There was no free agency before the lockout.
Justice Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 Missouri isn't exactly an Alabama, Florida, or USC. They don't get 1A recruiting classes. Consider the talent around Gabbert before examining his stats. The first round isn't littered with Missouri players. Chase Daniel put up huge numbers and they're from the same school.
DanInUticaTampa Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 Cam has won just about everything he could, I wouldn't discount his ability to fail in the NFL. Not discounting his potential... but picking a one year wonder at 3rd overall seems a little too risky. With the bad luck we have with our first rounders, I would like to take a player that is at least a little more of a safer pick. Notice I said before the lockout. There was no free agency before the lockout. haha. oh my.
Wiz Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 Unfortunately, I think we may take a so-called "franchise quarterback" with our pick because of Ralph(there are very few f'ing "franchise quarterbacks" in the whole NFL, yet we are to believe that there are several in one draft!!! ) 1. Ralph said after the season that finding a qb was a priority. 2. Ralph is in the war room during the draft and involved in the decision making process. 3. If you were Nix or Chan, would you want to tell your boss that Newton or Gabbert isn't worth it and chance them succeeding with another team?
NewEra Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 At this point in Charlotte it would be a HUGE surprise if Newton does not go #1 Overall...I'd say if you polled 10 people in this City 9 would say they fully expect Newton to be the Pick... If you polled 10 people in Buffalo in: 2006, 10 out of 10 would say Haloti Ngata would be the pick. 2009 9-10 would say Brian Orakpo would be the pick. What the fans think doesn't mean much. You guys do realize that 3rd down passer rating and 3rd down conversion are not remotely similar right? 3rd down passer rating has zero factor of whether a 1st down was actually achieved on the play. Its just the QB rating on that play, but if the pass is inaccurate and behind the receiver preventing him from being able to advance the ball across the first down marker than its still a fail even though it boosts his "3rd down QB rating". If the pass is thrown to a RB 7 yards short of the first down with no hope of advancing it, it still helps his QB rating. And this was a real drive killing problem where Fitz would complete the pass to someone way short of the marker with no chance for the first down, or to someone who did have a chance to get the first down but he delivered it so inaccurately that the receiver no longer had any real shot of advancing the ball because of what he had to do in order to make the catch (ball was low, behind him, etc). We were in 3rd and long a lot and we had a lot of short 3rd down safe throws as a result, all of which boost his "3rd down QB rating" yet few of which actually got us a 3rd down. So no offense, but I dont care so much about 3rd down rating, I care about 3rd down conversions, and so do the coaches, and we need to get better there or we will never be a winning franchise. Couldn't have said it better myself. Gotta love the 7 yard passes on 3rd and 8. Nice post
San-O Posted April 20, 2011 Posted April 20, 2011 uhhh...the best time to pick a quarterback with the third overall pick is.. When you have the worst defense in the league When you can't stop the run to get your offense on the field. When your offensive line can't protect the quarterback When your running game is less than adequate When you already have a quarterback who is performing pretty well in spite of the shortcomings listed above. Yup...go ahead thinking like that Buddy. We've seen this movie already. Draft a QB with a subpar O-line, and no defense. Give the QB 4 years to "develop", bacause it can't be that the guy can't play. Dump the QB and start all over again. Rinse, wash, repeat.
BillsVet Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 Unfortunately, I think we may take a so-called "franchise quarterback" with our pick because of Ralph(there are very few f'ing "franchise quarterbacks" in the whole NFL, yet we are to believe that there are several in one draft!!! ) 1. Ralph said after the season that finding a qb was a priority. 2. Ralph is in the war room during the draft and involved in the decision making process. 3. If you were Nix or Chan, would you want to tell your boss that Newton or Gabbert isn't worth it and chance them succeeding with another team? The only question is when RW orders Nix/Gailey to play the highly paid rookie. Seriously, Buffalo going QB will raise questions about who's really making picks at OBD. Then again, as long as RW owns the team that suspicion will always be present. We've seen this movie already. Draft a QB with a subpar O-line, and no defense. Give the QB 4 years to "develop", bacause it can't be that the guy can't play. Dump the QB and start all over again. Rinse, wash, repeat. Kinda like drafting a RB 9th overall and then putting 2 bad to mediocre OT's in front of him, right? Taking a QB means investing serious resources into the OL, likewise with drafting DB's: they need people in front of them, and Buffalo is so busy fixing a myriad of problems, they don't fix one side of the ball nor build a team.
San-O Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 The only question is when RW orders Nix/Gailey to play the highly paid rookie. Seriously, Buffalo going QB will raise questions about who's really making picks at OBD. Then again, as long as RW owns the team that suspicion will always be present. Kinda like drafting a RB 9th overall and then putting 2 bad to mediocre OT's in front of him, right? Taking a QB means investing serious resources into the OL, likewise with drafting DB's: they need people in front of them, and Buffalo is so busy fixing a myriad of problems, they don't fix one side of the ball nor build a team. Right. The Bills are always chasing their tail, lot of motion and activity which never results in anything. Gets a bit old to watch after a while also. IMO. At least the best time of the year is hear, the time leading up to and including the draft, and the first quarter or half of the first game. May be different this year: let's hope so. season.
BillsfaninFl Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/20/buddy-nix-perfect-time-for-bills-to-draft-a-quarterback/ I guess last year was also a perfect time to draft a quarterback, because the Bills did just that. Then again, next year will also be a perfect time to draft a quarterback if Luck is available. But why draft one? We can just pick up one off of someone's practice squad. (They did that, too.) BTW, Vinny Testaverde is not on anyone's roster this year. You know, based on the last decade, it seems like the Bills pick the people they do to avoid being predictable. So even if they pick a QB, it will not be someone who the "experts" rate as a potential star. It will be another "reach." But at least they will continue to be unpredictable.
Scrappy Posted April 21, 2011 Author Posted April 21, 2011 I guess last year was also a perfect time to draft a quarterback, because the Bills did just that. Then again, next year will also be a perfect time to draft a quarterback if Luck is available. But why draft one? We can just pick up one off of someone's practice squad. (They did that, too.) BTW, Vinny Testaverde is not on anyone's roster this year. You know, based on the last decade, it seems like the Bills pick the people they do to avoid being predictable. So even if they pick a QB, it will not be someone who the "experts" rate as a potential star. It will be another "reach." But at least they will continue to be unpredictable. Any backup will do if you're $40 Million under the cap, it's all about the bottom line.
K Gun Special Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 We've seen this movie already. Draft a QB with a subpar O-line, and no defense. Give the QB 4 years to "develop", bacause it can't be that the guy can't play. Dump the QB and start all over again. Rinse, wash, repeat. Like the Colts, who were awful when they took peyton, suffered for a few years before becoming one of the powerhouses of the NFL.
Fan in Chicago Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 Like the Colts, who were awful when they took peyton, suffered for a few years before becoming one of the powerhouses of the NFL. Let me elaborate a bit further on your statement. Granted we have plenty of needs esp around the lines. Many of us (me included) believe that Fitz is adequate for a team that is stocking up on talent but is not a superbowl winning QB (accuracy being the prime failing). So, eventually we will need a QB that will help us win the big one. Largely such QBs are not available in FA or trades. Ergo, we need to draft one. Now, consider that overall the hit rate of QB declines as even round 1 goes by. If all goes well, we will not pick this high in the next two years. That is the time period during which we would have built the rest of the team and will be ready for a above-average QB. Hence, this draft is the right one to take a QB with our first pick. The only caveat is ofcourse that NIx and co have to be convinced that there is a QB worthy of being picked that high. I think we should not take a QB at all if not in the first round. Draft best talent if Gabbert, Newton are not thought of as atleast a Matt Ryan quality pick. If we dont draft this year, assuming we will pick in the middle next year, we can only hope a Roethlisberger or Rodgers is available.
tennesseeboy Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 Frankly I don't see us drafting a qb at all, and I think Nix has no intention. However, he shows no "interest" in a qb, teams that are considering trading up to get a qb (Newton, Gabbert) will have to take into account that Buddy might get one or the other of the only two top ten qb picks. I think no matter what he intends to do...something really stupid like picking a qb...or something smart like a trade down to end up with three or four extremely valuable players instead of two...the smart thing is to indicate he is very interested in a qb.
K Gun Special Posted April 21, 2011 Posted April 21, 2011 Let me elaborate a bit further on your statement. Granted we have plenty of needs esp around the lines. Many of us (me included) believe that Fitz is adequate for a team that is stocking up on talent but is not a superbowl winning QB (accuracy being the prime failing). So, eventually we will need a QB that will help us win the big one. Largely such QBs are not available in FA or trades. Ergo, we need to draft one. Now, consider that overall the hit rate of QB declines as even round 1 goes by. If all goes well, we will not pick this high in the next two years. That is the time period during which we would have built the rest of the team and will be ready for a above-average QB. Hence, this draft is the right one to take a QB with our first pick. The only caveat is ofcourse that NIx and co have to be convinced that there is a QB worthy of being picked that high. I think we should not take a QB at all if not in the first round. Draft best talent if Gabbert, Newton are not thought of as atleast a Matt Ryan quality pick. If we dont draft this year, assuming we will pick in the middle next year, we can only hope a Roethlisberger or Rodgers is available. Good post.
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