thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) With the draft coming up, I decided to do a bit of research as to how teamsboth successful and unsuccessfulput together their 3-4 defense. The goal here being to assess how Buffalo should proceed in putting together the components for an effective 3-4 defense this coming season. For the 2011 season (assuming there is one…ugh), 14 teams will operate from a 3-4 alignment at least part of the time. Those teams are: Buffalo, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Green Bay, Washington, and Dallas. To begin with, I started by looking at the defensive performance of each team for the 2010 season, which Ive outlined below. Please note that I ranked each team according to yards-per-play for total defense, yards-per-rush allowed for run defense, and yards-per-attempt allowed for pass defense; done so because these numbers are typically the most reflective of the overall performance of the teams defense, as there tends to be very little skewing of the figures to do play call imbalance, game situations, etc. Please also note that I excluded Houston from the analysis, since they did not run the 3-4 in 2010 (which is also the reason that team s like Denver and Cleveland were not included, since theyre switching to a 4-3 for 2011). Team-----------Overall D (YPP)------------Pass D (YPA) -----------Run D (YPA) Pittsburgh-------------1-----------------------1-----------------------1 San Diego--------------2-----------------------3-----------------------4 NYJ--------------------3-----------------------5-T---------------------3 Miami------------------4-----------------------19-T--------------------7 Baltimore--------------6-----------------------2-----------------------5 San Francisco----------8-----------------------23-T--------------------6 Green Bay--------------9-----------------------5-T---------------------18 Kansas City-----------12-----------------------5-T---------------------14 Buffalo---------------20-----------------------14----------------------32 Arizona---------------23-----------------------25-T--------------------30 New England-----------26-----------------------19-T--------------------11 Dallas----------------28-----------------------29----------------------12 Washington------------30-----------------------28----------------------26 In looking at the above, I deem it safe to say that there is clearly a cutoff between the teams that run a 3-4 effectively, and the teams that do not, with Kansas City being the final of the 8 teams to make the cut, and Buffalo being the first of the 5 that do not. This is where I started to get into the details a bit more. Lets take a look at the teams that make the cut, their starters at what I call the key positions (both 5-tech DEs, NT, and both OLBs), the rounds in which those players were drafted, and which teams acquired their starters via the draft vs. via free agency. Team-------DE------------------NT------------------DE-----------------OLB------------------OLB Pit--Keisel (7-FA)----C. Hampton (1)----------E. Hood (1)-------L. Woodley (2)------J. Harrison (UDFA-FA) SD----Castillo (1)------A. Garay (6-FA)--J. Cesaire (UDFA)-----A. Applewhite (UDFA)--S. Phillips (4) NYJ---S. Ellis (1)-------S. Pouha (3)------M. Devito (UDFA-FA)--C. Pace (1-FA)------B. Thomas (1-FA) Mia--K. Langford (3)------P. Soliai (4)-----R. Starks (3-FA)----C. Wake (UDFA-FA)------K. Misi (2) Bal-----H. Ngata (1)----K. Gregg (6-FA)----C. Redding (2-FA)-------T. Suggs (1)-------J. Johnson (2) SF----J. Smith (1-FA)---I. Sopoaga (4)------A. Franklin (5-FA)---P. Harylson (4)------M. Lawson (1) GB--C. Jenkins (UDFA)-----B. Raji (1)-------R. Pickett (1-FA)-----C. Matthews (1)-----F. Zombo (UDFA) KC--G. Dorsey (1)------R. Edwards (3-FA)----S. Smith (5-FA)----M. Vrabel (UDFA-FA)-------T. Hali (1) So what can we learn from this data set? A few things in my opinion. GIMME FIVE! My numbers-based claim: the best run stopping teams focus on the 5-technique position. Of the 13 teams examined, 6 finished in the top 7 run defenses in the league. Of those teams (Pit, SD, NYJ, Mia, Bal, and SF), all but 1 (Miami) started a first round pick at the 5-technique spot. A quick comparison shows that the 5 aforementioned teams that did not make the cut had a total of 2 first round picks starting at 5-technique between them. Additionally, youll notice that only one of these playersSan Franciscos Justin Smithwas obtained via free agency; the rest were drafted. Interestingly enough, however, is the fact thatin each of the cases in which the team spent a first-round pick on a 5-techniquethe player manning the same position on the other side of the line was acquired via free agency. FOLLOW YOUR NOSE? My numbers-based claim: the best 3-4 teams apparently do not spend high draft picks on nose tackles. Only 3 of the 13 teams on the list started first round picks at NT, while 8 of the remaining 10 started players drafted in the fourth round or later. Of the 8 teams that made the cut, only 2 started first round nose tackles. There also appears to be no correlation between a high draft pick spent at NT and ability to defend the run, as Pittsburgh (with former first rounder Casey Hampton manning the nose) finished #1 in run D, but Green Bay (with former top 10 pick B.J. Raji holding down the position) finished 18th. FEELING A RUSH… My numbers-based claim: the best 3-4 pass defenses have at least one dominant pass rusher. This is going to sound weird, but 6 of the 13 teams listed finished in the top 5 in the league in pass defense (because there was a 3-way tie for fifth). Of those 6 teams, only 1 managed to do so without starting an OLB that amassed 10 or more sacks during the course of the season. That team was the Jets, who'se leading pass rusher was Bryan Thomas (6 sacks). This shouldnt be terribly surprising, considering that they boast what is widely considered the best CB tandem in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Looking at the other 5 teams, however, the importance of having a dominant pass rusher at OLB is apparent. Pittsburgh, who finished first in the NFL in pass defense, was the only team of the 5 with 2 different OLBs that amassed 10 or more sacks. The others all had at least one. In fact, of the other 7 teams on the list, only 2 had OLBs that hit the mark: Dallas DeMarcus Ware and Miamis Cameron Wake. The next closest player was Washingtons Brian Orakpo, who had 8.5 sacks. CONCLUSIONS So what would I like to see Buffalo do? Lets start with the obvious: 1. Draft a 5-technique player. Does it have to be a first-round pick? Not necessarily in my opinion, but I think it needs to be a first round talent. The good news is that Buffalo is in the position to do that this year. If its at No. 3 overall, its likely a choice between Cam Jordan, Nick Fairley, and J.J. Watt (assuming Marcel Dareus is gone at that point). However, this draft is as deep in 5-technique players as any in recent memory, so waiting until No. 34 might be an okay strategy, as long as the team understands that they may need to get a bit lucky to get the guy they really want at that spot. Prospects at that point would include Oregon States Steven Paea, UNCs Marvin Austin, USCs Jurrell Casey, Miamis Allen Bailey, and Iowas Christian Ballard. 2. Dont jump the gun on a nose tackle. We all watched this team last year; can anyone tell me that they dont think Kyle Williams can handle the NT position provided hes afforded better players flanking him at the DE spots? I sure do. I also think its a bit too early to give up on Torell Troup. There are options available for this team later in the draft, including players like Hamptons Kenrick Ellis (2-3), Temples Elisha Joseph (3-4), Southern Mississippis Anthony Gray (4), and board-favorite Blaine The Incredible Hulk Sumner from the Colorado School of Mines (5-7). 3. Identify your pass rusher. I know some of you are comfortable with Arthur Moats being the teams most effective pass rusher, but Im not. At least not yet. This team needs a player that other teams have to game plan against; somebody that forces opponents to keep a RB in the backfield for pass protection. The No. 3 pick is probably the teams best chance to get that guy, considering that the draft is relatively top-heavy when it comes to pass rushers. I count 5 guys that Im comfortable saying can play the 3-4 OLB role: Von Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, Aldon Smith, and Akeem Ayers. None of them are likely to make it past the end of the first round. There are other conversion candidates like Robert Quinnwho clearly wont be available at the No. 34 pickand Brooks Reed, whose productivity never really matched his physical ability at Arizona. If the team decides to go elsewhere in the first round, they could look to Texas Sam Acho or Fresno States Chris Carter in the second or third round. Thats all Ive got for now, I hope this has been worth the read for you, and I welcome any feedback, comments, musings, criticisms, or random statements that have nothing to do with this post. - Bandit Edited April 13, 2011 by thebandit27
Mr. ChumChums Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) I've posted this link many times, and still consider it to be the best overall explanation of how defenses in the NFl work. It goes pretty in depth, discussing the various defensive philosophies, and what's required, etc... http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09bramel_idpguide.php It's so good, that it was actually dropped into a 7-part NY Times series. Link to that is here (it's the exact same thing). http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/guide-to-n-f-l-defenses-part-1/ So with that said, here are my thoughts. - I don't think we really have a need for a 5-technique. We drafted Alex Carrington last year, and have Dwan Edwards. Maybe we draft another for depth, but to be honest, I think we're fine. - Regarding NT, if you read the link I posted above, there are several types of 3-4 defenses. Not all of them need a 345 lb space eater at NT. The 3-4 that Wade Philips ran in Dallas, and that his father, Bum Philips developed, instead relies on the D-Line attacking gaps. Take a look at Jay Ratliff - he's only about 300 lbs, but is widely considered to be a top 5 NT in the league. Kyle Williams is fine at NT - I trust the George Edwards to build a scheme around his strengths, which are penetrating the interior. - Our run defense was terrible last year. We all know that. But what bugs me is that everyone thinks it's the fault of our D-Line. We in fact had probably the WORST LB corp in the NFL last season. They were so bad in fact, that the NFL network had 20 minute video segments during the season laughing at how bad Chris Kelsay was. What we need are playmaking LB's. I don't care if it's Von Miller or someone else - I want a playmaker, and someone that can both rush the passer, and put a beating on a runner. We are 2 LB's away from having a serviceable group - a Pass rushing OLB, and another ILB to play alongside Poz. Edited April 13, 2011 by Mr. ChumChums
H2o Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 With the draft coming up, I decided to do a bit of research as to how teams—both successful and unsuccessful—put together their 3-4 defense. The goal here being to assess how Buffalo should proceed in putting together the components for an effective 3-4 defense this coming season. For the 2011 season (assuming there is one…ugh), 14 teams will operate from a 3-4 alignment at least part of the time. Those teams are: Buffalo, New England, Miami, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, Green Bay, Washington, and Dallas. To begin with, I started by looking at the defensive performance of each team for the 2010 season, which I’ve outlined below. Please note that I ranked each team according to yards-per-play for total defense, yards-per-rush allowed for run defense, and yards-per-attempt allowed for pass defense; done so because these numbers are typically the most reflective of the overall performance of the team’s defense, as there tends to be very little skewing of the figures to do play call imbalance, game situations, etc. Please also note that I excluded Houston from the analysis, since they did not run the 3-4 in 2010 (which is also the reason that team s like Denver and Cleveland were not included, since they’re switching to a 4-3 for 2011). Team-----------Overall D (YPP)------------Pass D (YPA) -----------Run D (YPA) Pittsburgh-------------1-----------------------1-----------------------1 San Diego--------------2-----------------------3-----------------------4 NYJ--------------------3-----------------------5-T---------------------3 Miami------------------4-----------------------19-T--------------------7 Baltimore--------------6-----------------------2-----------------------5 San Francisco----------8-----------------------23-T--------------------6 Green Bay--------------9-----------------------5-T---------------------18 Kansas City-----------12-----------------------5-T---------------------14 Buffalo---------------20-----------------------14----------------------32 Arizona---------------23-----------------------25-T--------------------30 New England-----------26-----------------------19-T--------------------11 Dallas----------------28-----------------------29----------------------12 Washington------------30-----------------------28----------------------26 In looking at the above, I deem it safe to say that there is clearly a cutoff between the teams that run a 3-4 effectively, and the teams that do not, with Kansas City being the final of the 8 teams to make the “cut”, and Buffalo being the first of the 5 that do not. This is where I started to get into the details a bit more. Let’s take a look at the teams that make the cut, their starters at what I call the “key positions” (both 5-tech DEs, NT, and both OLBs), the rounds in which those players were drafted, and which teams acquired their starters via the draft vs. via free agency. Team-------DE------------------NT------------------DE-----------------OLB------------------OLB Pit--Keisel (7-FA)----C. Hampton (1)----------E. Hood (1)-------L. Woodley (2)------J. Harrison (UDFA-FA) SD----Castillo (1)------A. Garay (6-FA)--J. Cesaire (UDFA)-----A. Applewhite (UDFA)--S. Phillips (4) NYJ---S. Ellis (1)-------S. Pouha (3)------M. Devito (UDFA-FA)--C. Pace (1-FA)------B. Thomas (1-FA) Mia--K. Langford (3)------P. Soliai (4)-----R. Starks (3-FA)----C. Wake (UDFA-FA)------K. Misi (2) Bal-----H. Ngata (1)----K. Gregg (6-FA)----C. Redding (2-FA)-------T. Suggs (1)-------J. Johnson (2) SF----J. Smith (1-FA)---I. Sopoaga (4)------A. Franklin (5-FA)---P. Harylson (4)------M. Lawson (1) GB--C. Jenkins (UDFA)-----B. Raji (1)-------R. Pickett (1-FA)-----C. Matthews (1)-----F. Zombo (UDFA) KC--G. Dorsey (1)------R. Edwards (3-FA)----S. Smith (5-FA)----M. Vrabel (UDFA-FA)-------T. Hali (1) So what can we learn from this data set? A few things in my opinion. GIMME FIVE! My numbers-based claim: the best run stopping teams focus on the 5-technique position. Of the 13 teams examined, 6 finished in the top 7 run defenses in the league. Of those teams (Pit, SD, NYJ, Mia, Bal, and SF), all but 1 (Miami) started a first round pick at the 5-technique spot. A quick comparison shows that the 5 aforementioned teams that did not make the cut had a total of 2 first round picks starting at 5-technique between them. Additionally, you’ll notice that only one of these players—San Francisco’s Justin Smith—was obtained via free agency; the rest were drafted. Interestingly enough, however, is the fact that—in each of the cases in which the team spent a first-round pick on a 5-technique—the player manning the same position on the other side of the line was acquired via free agency. FOLLOW YOUR NOSE? My numbers-based claim: the best 3-4 teams apparently do not spend high draft picks on nose tackles. Only 3 of the 13 teams on the list started first round picks at NT, while 8 of the remaining 10 started players drafted in the fourth round or later. Of the 8 teams that made the cut, only 2 started first round nose tackles. There also appears to be no correlation between a high draft pick spent at NT and ability to defend the run, as Pittsburgh (with former first rounder Casey Hampton manning the nose) finished #1 in run D, but Green Bay (with former top 10 pick B.J. Raji holding down the position) finished 18th. FEELING A RUSH… My numbers-based claim: the best 3-4 pass defenses have at least one dominant pass rusher. This is going to sound weird, but 6 of the 13 teams listed finished in the top 5 in the league in pass defense (because there was a 3-way tie for fifth). Of those 6 teams, only 1 managed to do so without starting an OLB that amassed 10 or more sacks during the course of the season. That team was the Jets, who'se leading pass rusher was Bryan Thomas (6 sacks). This shouldn’t be terribly surprising, considering that they boast what is widely considered the best CB tandem in the NFL in Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Looking at the other 5 teams, however, the importance of having a dominant pass rusher at OLB is apparent. Pittsburgh, who finished first in the NFL in pass defense, was the only team of the 5 with 2 different OLBs that amassed 10 or more sacks. The others all had at least one. In fact, of the other 7 teams on the list, only 2 had OLBs that hit the mark: Dallas’ DeMarcus Ware and Miami’s Cameron Wake. The next closest player was Washington’s Brian Orakpo, who had 8.5 sacks. CONCLUSIONS So what would I like to see Buffalo do? Let’s start with the obvious: 1. Draft a 5-technique player. Does it have to be a first-round pick? Not necessarily in my opinion, but I think it needs to be a first round talent. The good news is that Buffalo is in the position to do that this year. If it’s at No. 3 overall, it’s likely a choice between Cam Jordan, Nick Fairley, and J.J. Watt (assuming Marcel Dareus is gone at that point). However, this draft is as deep in 5-technique players as any in recent memory, so waiting until No. 34 might be an okay strategy, as long as the team understands that they may need to get a bit lucky to get the guy they really want at that spot. Prospects at that point would include Oregon State’s Steven Paea, UNC’s Marvin Austin, USC’s Jurrell Casey, Miami’s Allen Bailey, and Iowa’s Christian Ballard. 2. Don’t jump the gun on a nose tackle. We all watched this team last year; can anyone tell me that they don’t think Kyle Williams can handle the NT position provided he’s afforded better players flanking him at the DE spots? I sure do. I also think it’s a bit too early to give up on Torell Troup. There are options available for this team later in the draft, including players like Hampton’s Kenrick Ellis (2-3), Temple’s Elisha Joseph (3-4), Southern Mississippi’s Anthony Gray (4), and board-favorite Blaine “The Incredible Hulk” Sumner from the Colorado School of Mines (5-7). 3. Identify your pass rusher. I know some of you are comfortable with Arthur Moats being the team’s most effective pass rusher, but I’m not. At least not yet. This team needs a player that other teams have to game plan against; somebody that forces opponents to keep a RB in the backfield for pass protection. The No. 3 pick is probably the team’s best chance to get that guy, considering that the draft is relatively top-heavy when it comes to pass rushers. I count 5 guys that I’m comfortable saying can play the 3-4 OLB role: Von Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, Justin Houston, Aldon Smith, and Akeem Ayers. None of them are likely to make it past the end of the first round. There are other conversion candidates like Robert Quinn—who clearly won’t be available at the No. 34 pick—and Brooks Reed, whose productivity never really matched his physical ability at Arizona. If the team decides to go elsewhere in the first round, they could look to Texas’ Sam Acho or Fresno State’s Chris Carter in the second or third round. That’s all I’ve got for now, I hope this has been worth the read for you, and I welcome any feedback, comments, musings, criticisms, or random statements that have nothing to do with this post. - Bandit Excellent post my friend.
Thoner7 Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Very good work bandit. The only flaw I see is that being drafted in the 1st round doesn’t mean you are good and being an UDFA doesn’t mean you are bad, but your conclusions didn’t really focus on that. So to me, if we want to stop the run, draft a DE. If we want to stop the pass, draft a OLB. Luckily for us, this is a good year to add those two positions in rounds 1 and 2. It also looks like its easier to add a OLB or NG in the later rounds than other positions (or maybe its just the small sample size). I say take the best 5 tech at 3, and hopefully a good rusher like Kerrigan, Houston, or Ayers at 34. I think Moats is good and could easily be half of that equation. Maybe, if teams truly don’t draft NGs that high, P Taylor would be there at 34 (still a good pick IMO. I heard on NFLN a few weeks back some teams thought he was athletic enough to play 5 tech. maybe that’s where he ends up?) Obviously there are lots of options.
roccitybillsfan Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Both assessments were very well thought out and made a lot of sense. Thank you both for that. I tend to lean towards Chum's belief that the LB corp was our true weakness. First, we drafted DLinemen last year, so let's let them develop. Plus Kyle Williams is for real. Second, the only LB I have any excitement right now is Moats. Poz needs to step it up. Merriman can be quite an asset if he ever gets healthy, but that seems to be quite a task when getting off the juice. That said, I won't mind if they take Von Miller. I personally am hoping for Newton or Dareus(I know I said that I don't think that DLine is the problem, but this dude I think will be a big-time playmaker for many years). After that, i'm fine with Miller, Peterson or Fairley, and maybe Gabbert if Nix sees something special about him. Personally I don't. I'm curious to find out who Chum and Bandit are hoping for with pick #3. Don't worry about who you think may be gone. In your ideal situation, who do we select?(No trade down) POW!!!!
yungmack Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Great post. My only quibble was your remark about Troup. Who's giving up on him? I thought he had a pretty good rookie season, certainly better than, say, Maybin or McCargo. And I'd add that Nix is convinced that Merriman is good to go this year.
John from Riverside Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 I think Nix gets this philosphy....and began it last year with Troup and Carrington..... I disagree a little bit with the idea that DL was not the problem last year......but I also think that the weak link of our DL is gone in Stroud. What I wouldn't give up to have Stroud back when he was still productive....and not the shell of him that we brought to Buffalo.....young Stroud was a beast I dont look for pass rush out of my DL.....I look for pocket pushers who tie up blockers and allow LB's to make plays. That to me is why Williams is such a anomally he is a great backfield penetrator.....but when he does this he gives something up on run containment and a LB has to step up and back him up.......so his strength is also a weakness.
PDaDdy Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) I'll say one thing. You are incredibly motivated. You went a long LONG LONG way to try to justify wanting Von Miller at #3 which is obviously the point of your epic post. Nice little jab at Robert Quinn not including him in the discussion to play OLB but you did at least throw him a bone saying that he won't be there in round 2. What a laugh. He likely won't get out of the top 6. You did mention a name in there that I did like though. Brian Orakpo who Quinn makes me think of more than the "usual" comparisons to Julias Peppers. So, what can we conclude from all of this, where people are drafted? NOTHING What can we conclude regarding a pass rushing specialist making your run defense better? NOTHING Talent is talent no matter where you get it from. It doesn't matter one bit what so ever where that talent was drafted or if they were ever drafted. Your list of players at various positions oddly enough is littered with UFAs. By your logic we could also conclude that great run stopping 3-4 defenses must have UFA starting. You state how important you think the 5 technique is, how most teams have a 1st rounder and then conclude a wiry OLB should be our pick at #3. Oh wait. I forgot that this was all about trying to justify Miller at #3. Moving on. The Bills specifically need better 5 technique players and Troupe starting at NT and kicking KW out to DE would go a long way towards helping that with Carrington manning the other DE spot. We need good 5 technique players but I would say the same thing about the nose and the LBs both inside and outside. That being said Robert Quinn is still the guy that I believe has the most upside and could be a great addition rushing the passer that we all know he can do and is better at stopping the actual run than Miller. Edited April 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Great job Bandit! Buddy Nix in speaking about D-linemen recently said "we drafted a couple last year, now we have to get a couple more." I agree with Nix. Dwan Edwards will turn 30 years old in May and he played in only 11 games last year. While I'm optimistic about Carrington and Troup, the Bills still have to add to the D-line talent because like all teams, they need rotational depth and to guard against injury. And truth of the matter, the jury is still out on both of these players. I'm one of those who would like to see us take a pass rusher and a five technique end with our first two picks (in either order). I see you list Akeem Ayers as one of the top possible rush backers. Personally I don't like the player. He plays soft and small, IMO. When I watch Ayers play, I'm not convinced that he has football temperament. Nice athlete, yes. Football player? Not so sure. Also, he has a long way to go as a pass rusher. I'd much rather have Brooks Reed, who you seem to have rated lower than Ayers. And one pass rusher that isn't being mentioned much but who I'd love the Bills to draft would be Pitt DE/OLB Jabbaal Sheard. A lotta guys are mentioning Greg Romeus but I think Sheard is a much better fit for the Bills.
mrags Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Great posts all around. Rocc, I agree with what you said quite a bit. And I'll take you up on your dream scenario. 1st Newton- Big boom or bust possibility here, I'm betting on boom and having our future franchise QB for 10+ years 2nd Clayborne- the DE we need badly 3rd Moch- with Clayborne, Moch, Moats and Merriman I'd be happy with this group 4th Green- the TE that Newton can rely on for years. He's a beast of an athlete, and a good run blocker 4th Mathews OLB/ILB- could be just as good as his Brother or father. I'm counting on bloodlines here. At worst he'll be a servicable backup. 5th Brown- were gonna need another CB at some point. I'm really hoping we keep Florence but it's not looking good right now. Brown from Texas could at worst case be a nickle/dime guy if not better. 6th Keo- when I look at this guy I see Polamalu. I'm not sure if it's the Pacific islander thing or if it's the way he plays. Maybe both. I'm ok with taking a chance on the kid and hoping he's a steal. 7th I don't really have anyone in mind for our 2 7th rounders. So just give me anyone that can contribute and fills a need on the team. Another CB, LB, OG, OT would be fine. This would probably be my dream draft. Get the potential star QB and hope he pans out and beef up the Defense almost the rest of the draft. Thoughts?
thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2011 Author Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) I'll say one thing. You are incredibly motivated. You went a long LONG LONG way to try to justify wanting Von Miller at #3 which is obviously the point of your epic post. Nice little jab at Robert Quinn not including him in the discussion to play OLB but you did at least throw him a bone saying that he won't be there in round 2. What a laugh. He likely won't get out of the top 6. You did mention a name in there that I did like though. Brian Orakpo who Quinn makes me think of more than the "usual" comparisons to Julias Peppers. So, what can we conclude from all of this, where people are drafted? NOTHING What can we conclude regarding a pass rushing specialist making your run defense better? NOTHING Talent is talent no matter where you get it from. It doesn't matter one bit what so ever where that talent was drafted or if they were ever drafted. Your list of players at various positions oddly enough is littered with UFAs. By your logic we could also conclude that great run stopping 3-4 defenses must have UFA starting. You state how important you think the 5 technique is, how most teams have a 1st rounder and then conclude a wiry OLB should be our pick at #3. Oh wait. I forgot that this was all about trying to justify Miller at #3. Moving on. The Bills specifically need better 5 technique players and Troupe starting at NT and kicking KW out to DE would go a long way towards helping that with Carrington manning the other DE spot. We need good 5 technique players but I would say the same thing about the nose and the LBs both inside and outside. That being said Robert Quinn is still the guy that I believe has the most upside and could be a great addition rushing the passer that we all know he can do and is better at stopping the actual run than Miller. This post, folks, is an example of three things: 1) How to go out of your way to be an a**hole. 2) How to misconstrue a well-researched post in order to start an argument. 3) How to ensure you work yourself onto someone's ingore list. Welcome to my "Ignore" list, PDaDdy. Edited April 13, 2011 by thebandit27
John from Riverside Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 I agree with bandit on you PD....If anything it looked to me like a objective post that actually promoted a defensive linemen over a linebacker....or at least showed the importance of having quality DE's. Your agenda is getting tiresome
thebandit27 Posted April 13, 2011 Author Posted April 13, 2011 I've posted this link many times, and still consider it to be the best overall explanation of how defenses in the NFl work. It goes pretty in depth, discussing the various defensive philosophies, and what's required, etc... http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09bramel_idpguide.php It's so good, that it was actually dropped into a 7-part NY Times series. Link to that is here (it's the exact same thing). http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/guide-to-n-f-l-defenses-part-1/ So with that said, here are my thoughts. - I don't think we really have a need for a 5-technique. We drafted Alex Carrington last year, and have Dwan Edwards. Maybe we draft another for depth, but to be honest, I think we're fine. - Regarding NT, if you read the link I posted above, there are several types of 3-4 defenses. Not all of them need a 345 lb space eater at NT. The 3-4 that Wade Philips ran in Dallas, and that his father, Bum Philips developed, instead relies on the D-Line attacking gaps. Take a look at Jay Ratliff - he's only about 300 lbs, but is widely considered to be a top 5 NT in the league. Kyle Williams is fine at NT - I trust the George Edwards to build a scheme around his strengths, which are penetrating the interior. - Our run defense was terrible last year. We all know that. But what bugs me is that everyone thinks it's the fault of our D-Line. We in fact had probably the WORST LB corp in the NFL last season. They were so bad in fact, that the NFL network had 20 minute video segments during the season laughing at how bad Chris Kelsay was. What we need are playmaking LB's. I don't care if it's Von Miller or someone else - I want a playmaker, and someone that can both rush the passer, and put a beating on a runner. We are 2 LB's away from having a serviceable group - a Pass rushing OLB, and another ILB to play alongside Poz. Great links...good stuff. If I were certain that Carrington could become the stalwart 5-technique, I'd agree, but until we're certain, I'd like to see them grab another one. Excellent post my friend. Thank you sir. Very good work bandit. The only flaw I see is that being drafted in the 1st round doesn’t mean you are good and being an UDFA doesn’t mean you are bad, but your conclusions didn’t really focus on that. So to me, if we want to stop the run, draft a DE. If we want to stop the pass, draft a OLB. Luckily for us, this is a good year to add those two positions in rounds 1 and 2. It also looks like its easier to add a OLB or NG in the later rounds than other positions (or maybe its just the small sample size). I say take the best 5 tech at 3, and hopefully a good rusher like Kerrigan, Houston, or Ayers at 34. I think Moats is good and could easily be half of that equation. Maybe, if teams truly don’t draft NGs that high, P Taylor would be there at 34 (still a good pick IMO. I heard on NFLN a few weeks back some teams thought he was athletic enough to play 5 tech. maybe that’s where he ends up?) Obviously there are lots of options. Agreed regarding the correlation (or lack thereof) between draft position and productivity...exactly why I tried not to draw conclusions from it. Also agree that Taylor would be a steal at 34. Both assessments were very well thought out and made a lot of sense. Thank you both for that. I tend to lean towards Chum's belief that the LB corp was our true weakness. First, we drafted DLinemen last year, so let's let them develop. Plus Kyle Williams is for real. Second, the only LB I have any excitement right now is Moats. Poz needs to step it up. Merriman can be quite an asset if he ever gets healthy, but that seems to be quite a task when getting off the juice. That said, I won't mind if they take Von Miller. I personally am hoping for Newton or Dareus(I know I said that I don't think that DLine is the problem, but this dude I think will be a big-time playmaker for many years). After that, i'm fine with Miller, Peterson or Fairley, and maybe Gabbert if Nix sees something special about him. Personally I don't. I'm curious to find out who Chum and Bandit are hoping for with pick #3. Don't worry about who you think may be gone. In your ideal situation, who do we select?(No trade down) POW!!!! Personally, I'd like either Miller, Jordan, or Watt. By the way, does POW stand for something, or is it just for effect? Either way I'm cool, just curious. Great post. My only quibble was your remark about Troup. Who's giving up on him? I thought he had a pretty good rookie season, certainly better than, say, Maybin or McCargo. And I'd add that Nix is convinced that Merriman is good to go this year. Nobody that matters, to my knowledge. I just meant that he's too young and too new to the NT position to make drafting another NT prospect a priority, that's all. I think Nix gets this philosphy....and began it last year with Troup and Carrington..... I disagree a little bit with the idea that DL was not the problem last year......but I also think that the weak link of our DL is gone in Stroud. What I wouldn't give up to have Stroud back when he was still productive....and not the shell of him that we brought to Buffalo.....young Stroud was a beast I dont look for pass rush out of my DL.....I look for pocket pushers who tie up blockers and allow LB's to make plays. That to me is why Williams is such a anomally he is a great backfield penetrator.....but when he does this he gives something up on run containment and a LB has to step up and back him up.......so his strength is also a weakness. Totally agree. Great job Bandit! Buddy Nix in speaking about D-linemen recently said "we drafted a couple last year, now we have to get a couple more." I agree with Nix. Dwan Edwards will turn 30 years old in May and he played in only 11 games last year. While I'm optimistic about Carrington and Troup, the Bills still have to add to the D-line talent because like all teams, they need rotational depth and to guard against injury. And truth of the matter, the jury is still out on both of these players. I'm one of those who would like to see us take a pass rusher and a five technique end with our first two picks (in either order). I see you list Akeem Ayers as one of the top possible rush backers. Personally I don't like the player. He plays soft and small, IMO. When I watch Ayers play, I'm not convinced that he has football temperament. Nice athlete, yes. Football player? Not so sure. Also, he has a long way to go as a pass rusher. I'd much rather have Brooks Reed, who you seem to have rated lower than Ayers. And one pass rusher that isn't being mentioned much but who I'd love the Bills to draft would be Pitt DE/OLB Jabbaal Sheard. A lotta guys are mentioning Greg Romeus but I think Sheard is a much better fit for the Bills. Thanks San Jose. Ayers is a guy that I think will be a solid but unspectacular linebacker. I like him because he's scheme-diverse, and if Buffalo is going to play a hybrid that could be an asset. As a pass rusher, I definitely think Reed is a better player; the reason I have him going later than Ayers is simply that he'll be drafted as a conversion guy, and the adjustment might be tough for him at first. As for Sheard, I think he's a guy that would be a first-round pick if he didn't have a violent crime on his rap sheet. He's an extremely talented pass rusher and has a knack for making plays when he gets to the QB (4 FF on 9 sacks as a senior). I love the talent, but I'm uncomfortable with the kid. Great posts all around. Rocc, I agree with what you said quite a bit. And I'll take you up on your dream scenario. 1st Newton- Big boom or bust possibility here, I'm betting on boom and having our future franchise QB for 10+ years 2nd Clayborne- the DE we need badly 3rd Moch- with Clayborne, Moch, Moats and Merriman I'd be happy with this group 4th Green- the TE that Newton can rely on for years. He's a beast of an athlete, and a good run blocker 4th Mathews OLB/ILB- could be just as good as his Brother or father. I'm counting on bloodlines here. At worst he'll be a servicable backup. 5th Brown- were gonna need another CB at some point. I'm really hoping we keep Florence but it's not looking good right now. Brown from Texas could at worst case be a nickle/dime guy if not better. 6th Keo- when I look at this guy I see Polamalu. I'm not sure if it's the Pacific islander thing or if it's the way he plays. Maybe both. I'm ok with taking a chance on the kid and hoping he's a steal. 7th I don't really have anyone in mind for our 2 7th rounders. So just give me anyone that can contribute and fills a need on the team. Another CB, LB, OG, OT would be fine. This would probably be my dream draft. Get the potential star QB and hope he pans out and beef up the Defense almost the rest of the draft. Thoughts? You love the athletes, huh mrags? That's okay by me; there's one thing you can't teach: talent.
Cash Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 I've posted this link many times, and still consider it to be the best overall explanation of how defenses in the NFl work. It goes pretty in depth, discussing the various defensive philosophies, and what's required, etc... http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09bramel_idpguide.php It's so good, that it was actually dropped into a 7-part NY Times series. Link to that is here (it's the exact same thing). http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/guide-to-n-f-l-defenses-part-1/ Thanks again for that link! I've seen you post it before, and it's phenomenal. So with that said, here are my thoughts.- I don't think we really have a need for a 5-technique. We drafted Alex Carrington last year, and have Dwan Edwards. Maybe we draft another for depth, but to be honest, I think we're fine. You're certainly not the only person saying this, so sorry if it seems like I'm picking on you, but I just don't see it. Carrington is a third-round talent who barely saw the field last year, and didn't really do anything when he did get on the field. Now we can just pencil him in as an above-average starter in year 2? I don't dislike Carrington or think he sucks or anything, but I just don't know where all this faith comes from. Most third-rounders don't become reliable starters in year 2, especially after getting a total of about 200 snaps in year 1. I hope Carrington becomes a stud, but hope is not a plan. I don't see him as someone who can be counted on as a solid starter. - Regarding NT, if you read the link I posted above, there are several types of 3-4 defenses. Not all of them need a 345 lb space eater at NT. The 3-4 that Wade Philips ran in Dallas, and that his father, Bum Philips developed, instead relies on the D-Line attacking gaps. Take a look at Jay Ratliff - he's only about 300 lbs, but is widely considered to be a top 5 NT in the league. Kyle Williams is fine at NT - I trust the George Edwards to build a scheme around his strengths, which are penetrating the interior. My only problem with this logic is the bolded part. I don't trust George Edwards to build any kind of successful NFL scheme. I was unimpressed by our scheme last year, and Edwards' only previous year as a defensive coordinator was the 2003 Washington Redskins: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2003.htm 24th in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed, 28th in first downs allowed, 26th in yards per pass, 21st in yards per run, 28th in total rushing yards allowed. With some solid talent on his defense, particularly at LB, and Champ Bailey in his prime. Not so hot. This will be only Edwards' third year as a defensive coordinator, so there's a real chance that he turns it around, but I have no faith that he will until I see otherwise. Having said all that, I agree that personnel-wise, we're not really served by trying to pick up a new NT. Williams is a good player, if not a fit for every scheme, and Troup needs PT to develop. If Troup doesn't develop, then we'll need another NT, but that's not a problem for this offseason. - Our run defense was terrible last year. We all know that. But what bugs me is that everyone thinks it's the fault of our D-Line. We in fact had probably the WORST LB corp in the NFL last season. They were so bad in fact, that the NFL network had 20 minute video segments during the season laughing at how bad Chris Kelsay was. What we need are playmaking LB's. I don't care if it's Von Miller or someone else - I want a playmaker, and someone that can both rush the passer, and put a beating on a runner. We are 2 LB's away from having a serviceable group - a Pass rushing OLB, and another ILB to play alongside Poz. One reason I have no confidence in George Edwards is that Kelsay continued to play LB in the base 4-3 defense once we moved to the hybrid. (At least he was playing DE in nickel and dime packages.) Maybe that's not Edwards' fault, but the bottom line is that whoever's in charge of who plays on D thought it was best for Kelsay to start at LB and play the majority of snaps both in a 3-4 (where he was awful) and in a 4-3 (where he was laughably awful). That is just terrifying.
PDaDdy Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) This post, folks, is an example of three things: 1) How to go out of your way to be an a**hole. 2) How to misconstrue a well-researched post in order to start an argument. 3) How to ensure you work yourself onto someone's ingore list. Welcome to my "Ignore" list, PDaDdy. Ignore me all you want. I know your bias. I know you're in favor of getting Miller. I know that you are really down on Quinn. These are the facts. Sorry that these facts are so evident in your post and I am the hole that pointed that out. It was a lot of work but I don't agree with your conclusions of what we should do. To be honest I would have been with you if as you suggest 5 technique is so important that we should use our #3 pick to get one. Instead as per your bias you say to get Miller throwing in the correlation that some good run defenses also have good pass rushers. Do great pass rushers make a good rush defense...OR...is it more likely that good run defenses force opposing offenses to pass because their run game is unsuccessful and create environments where pass rushers can tee off and rack up stats? Call me all the names you want but I bring up some valid points as you have brought up some valid points. I agree with bandit on you PD....If anything it looked to me like a objective post that actually promoted a defensive linemen over a linebacker....or at least showed the importance of having quality DE's. Your agenda is getting tiresome What is tiresome is hidden agendas. He has one. Defend it all you want. He did a lot of work which I appreciate. He determined that early pick DEs are VERY important to run defense. Then he lost me. Something that is also apparent in his work on where people were drafted is that most if not all of those defenses have UFAs starting for them. Should we also conclude that a great run defense needs UFAs so we should wait and pick up guys off the street to start? He then goes on to draw another conclusion which as I responded to his response was a actually a correlation and a leap of logic. Good run defenses have good pass rushers therefore good pass rushers help to make a good run defense? This is one of those chicken and the egg yin yan things as I pointed out. The truth is probably both. In what proportions none of us know. Attack my tone all you want and how I phrased things but consider my logic as well. Edited April 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
John from Riverside Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 Thanks again for that link! I've seen you post it before, and it's phenomenal. You're certainly not the only person saying this, so sorry if it seems like I'm picking on you, but I just don't see it. Carrington is a third-round talent who barely saw the field last year, and didn't really do anything when he did get on the field. Now we can just pencil him in as an above-average starter in year 2? I don't dislike Carrington or think he sucks or anything, but I just don't know where all this faith comes from. Most third-rounders don't become reliable starters in year 2, especially after getting a total of about 200 snaps in year 1. I hope Carrington becomes a stud, but hope is not a plan. I don't see him as someone who can be counted on as a solid starter. My only problem with this logic is the bolded part. I don't trust George Edwards to build any kind of successful NFL scheme. I was unimpressed by our scheme last year, and Edwards' only previous year as a defensive coordinator was the 2003 Washington Redskins: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2003.htm 24th in points allowed, 25th in yards allowed, 28th in first downs allowed, 26th in yards per pass, 21st in yards per run, 28th in total rushing yards allowed. With some solid talent on his defense, particularly at LB, and Champ Bailey in his prime. Not so hot. This will be only Edwards' third year as a defensive coordinator, so there's a real chance that he turns it around, but I have no faith that he will until I see otherwise. Having said all that, I agree that personnel-wise, we're not really served by trying to pick up a new NT. Williams is a good player, if not a fit for every scheme, and Troup needs PT to develop. If Troup doesn't develop, then we'll need another NT, but that's not a problem for this offseason. One reason I have no confidence in George Edwards is that Kelsay continued to play LB in the base 4-3 defense once we moved to the hybrid. (At least he was playing DE in nickel and dime packages.) Maybe that's not Edwards' fault, but the bottom line is that whoever's in charge of who plays on D thought it was best for Kelsay to start at LB and play the majority of snaps both in a 3-4 (where he was awful) and in a 4-3 (where he was laughably awful). That is just terrifying. Count me as one of the guys that have complete faith that Alex Carrington is gonna be a player...... - Keep in mind that Alex had a established veteran in front of him in Stroud.....you just dont sit those guys that are captains of your team like that and if you notice there was a trend with our rookies......Spiller, Troupe, and Carrington all had to earn their playing time. - The MO on Carrington was that he was extremely raw but just loaded with talent and potential......this means the chance of him making a big leap in production from last year to this is very good. - Your not going to see WOW plays from your DE's in a 3-4.....what you look for is the line of scrimmage not moving....how many blockers the DE is tieing up.....and other small things like batted balls. As I remember Alex was very good at batting balls down at the LOS. I also remember at the end of the year when Carrington got on the field with more consistancy that he was stout against the run and did not get pushed backward. I think he is gonna be a stud......but a stud in the sense that he is going to make players better around him. You NEED guys like that on your team. Ignore me all you want. I know your bias. I know you're in favor of getting Miller. I know that you are really down on Quinn. These are the facts. Sorry that these facts are so evident in your post and I am the hole that pointed that out. It was a lot of work but I don't agree with your conclusions of what we should do. To be honest I would have been with you if as you suggest 5 technique is so important that we should use our #3 pick to get one. Instead as per your bias you say to get Miller throwing in the correlation that some good run defenses also have good pass rushers. Do great pass rushers make a good rush defense...OR...is it more likely that good run defenses force opposing offenses to pass because their run game is unsuccessful and create environments where pass rushers can tee off and rack up stats? Call me all the names you want but I bring up some valid points as you have brought up some valid points. What is tiresome is hidden agendas. He has one. Defend it all you want. He did a lot of work which I appreciate. He determined that early pick DEs are VERY important to run defense. Then he lost me. Something that is also apparent in his work on where people were drafted is that most if not all of those defenses have UFAs starting for them. Should we also conclude that a great run defense needs UFAs so we should wait and pick up guys off the street to start? He then goes on to draw another conclusion which as I responded to his response was a actually a correlation and a leap of logic. Good run defenses have good pass rushers therefore good pass rushers help to make a good run defense? This is one of those chicken and the egg yin yan things as I pointed out. The truth is probably both. In what proportions none of us know. Attack my tone all you want and how I phrased things but consider my logic as well. Or could the logic just simply be that both Von Miller and Robert Quinn are going to be good players in the NFL? Cant it just be really that simple? I do not see the need to attack someones post to prove your point. I just dont.
PDaDdy Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 (edited) Or could the logic just simply be that both Von Miller and Robert Quinn are going to be good players in the NFL? Cant it just be really that simple? I do not see the need to attack someones post to prove your point. I just dont. Correct. I couldn't agree more. I think they could both be good. I actually agree with most of his points just not one of the conclusions to draft the pass rushing specialist that he happens to support so strongly in other threads while he attacked my posts and cut down Quinn. I agree we shouldn't cut down either. Now tell him that Edited April 13, 2011 by PDaDdy
Mr. ChumChums Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 You're certainly not the only person saying this, so sorry if it seems like I'm picking on you, but I just don't see it. Carrington is a third-round talent who barely saw the field last year, and didn't really do anything when he did get on the field. Now we can just pencil him in as an above-average starter in year 2? I don't dislike Carrington or think he sucks or anything, but I just don't know where all this faith comes from. Most third-rounders don't become reliable starters in year 2, especially after getting a total of about 200 snaps in year 1. I hope Carrington becomes a stud, but hope is not a plan. I don't see him as someone who can be counted on as a solid starter. All good points, and very fair. I think that personally, I don't think you need a star at 5-technique in a 3-4. Just someone that is serviceable. One of Bill Parcel's draft philosophies is that the most important position in the draft (defensively) is Linebacker. The more linebackers you draft, the better. I read that somewhere, but I don't exactly remember where... Anyways, it makes a little bit of sense. Think of a DE how you would think of a RB in the draft. You can always find serviceable, and sometimes even good players later in the draft - at least for a 5-technique. Good Linebackers, however, especially of the pass-rushing variety, are much harder to find. That's where most of my thinking goes when I think that DE isn't our #1 need at the top of the draft. We can always find someone to do the job later. One reason I have no confidence in George Edwards is that Kelsay continued to play LB in the base 4-3 defense once we moved to the hybrid. (At least he was playing DE in nickel and dime packages.) Maybe that's not Edwards' fault, but the bottom line is that whoever's in charge of who plays on D thought it was best for Kelsay to start at LB and play the majority of snaps both in a 3-4 (where he was awful) and in a 4-3 (where he was laughably awful). That is just terrifying. Again, good point. Didn't think of it from that side of the personell perspective. I guess the only thing I can think of that will in a way...excuse Edwards, is that while both Kelsay and Torbor were laughably bad, we really didn't have anyone else to replace them with (until we saw Moats emerging).
Mr. ChumChums Posted April 13, 2011 Posted April 13, 2011 I'm curious to find out who Chum and Bandit are hoping for with pick #3. Don't worry about who you think may be gone. In your ideal situation, who do we select?(No trade down) POW!!!! I believe in Blaine Gabbert, and about how he'll be able to be very successful in the NFL. Here's why: - While he did run the spread offense in college, his spread wasn't a quick 1-read and go type offense as it was with Cam Newton. Gabbert's offense was somewhat complex, where he actually had to make defensive reads, make adjustments, audibles, etc... He had to progress from his #1, to his #2, to his #3, etc. Very similar to how Sam Bradford had to make reads in school. Other QB's, like Cam Newton and Christian Ponder had 1 read in their offenses. They were very simple. - Everybody says he's accurate - I'm not sure how to really gauge that, but that's what I hear on TV, Internet, and Radio. - He has a good arm. Not the best, but good. Better than Bradford's, at least from what I've heard. If you want to look at the defensive side of the ball, I gotta go with Von Miller. Even though he has the size issues, you can't really find a negative with him. And if you watch tape on his sacks, you see some variety in terms of how he gets to the QB. It's not like Maybinot, where all he did was run around the edge to the QB. He actually does have a bunch of moves that he can use.
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