"Buffalo is a black hole of draft information "

[NoSaint]

 

I'm not sure if what I posted didn't make sense or what. I'm not talking about those two specific cases that BillsVet posted.

 

In general (read: league-wide and over the past 20 years if I remember correctly), a regime change more often than not improves the W-L record immediately in the first year. Now, obviously, one can trot out any number of hypotheses as to why that is, argue that it doesn't matter for the Bills, and suggest why the Bills of 2010 went the counter-trending direction. That's all well and good. Still, the fact is that it is more common for a regime change to take over a team and make it better from the word "go".

 

Id venture the wildly unresearched guess that the defensive switch is a big part. Going out on a limb I'd say teams switching 4-3 to 3-4 struggle heavily year one, and I doubt many (if any) were undersized cover 2 teams at the time. A team that is roughly established but underperforming is a different beast.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Id venture the wildly unresearched guess that the defensive switch is a big part. Going out on a limb I'd say teams switching 4-3 to 3-4 struggle heavily year one, and I doubt many (if any) were undersized cover 2 teams at the time. A team that is roughly established but underperforming is a different beast.

Well, I think there are a lot of different reasons since we are of course talking about a lot of different situations.

 

As to the Bills specific, sure, they were changing systems on defense and it was a lot of trying to force square pegs through round holes. On the other hand, that tells you something. Still, the Bills are hardly the only team that's ever switched defenses. Other regimes have had major roster turnover and managed to walk the high wire to improvement. Look no further than the Seahawks last year. They had the most roster turnover of any team in the NFL by far.

 

Another element in their faulty switch is that their owner is in a bit of a, shall we say, thrift mode (the lockout and his age having obvious implications there). Cheaper, younger, and not quite passable are the watchwords.

[NoSaint]

Well, I think there are a lot of different reasons since we are of course talking about a lot of different situations.

 

As to the Bills specific, sure, they were changing systems on defense and it was a lot of trying to force square pegs through round holes. On the other hand, that tells you something. Still, the Bills are hardly the only team that's ever switched defenses. Other regimes have had major roster turnover and managed to walk the high wire to improvement. Look no further than the Seahawks last year. They had the most roster turnover of any team in the NFL by far.

 

Another element in their faulty switch is that their owner is in a bit of a, shall we say, thrift mode (the lockout and his age having obvious implications there). Cheaper, younger, and not quite passable are the watchwords.

 

Rolling over a lot of players, especially depth is very different than a switch from a 43 zone predicated on speed to a 34 man that demands size. I also venture in the NFC west, we would've had a pretty good shot.

[reddogblitz]

This kinof baffled me:

 

49 Jacksonville Time for some competition for Garrard.

 

Don't they have Trent?

[rpcolosi]

of course its a black hole of information... Gailey came right our and said about 10% of what you hear is true and that he doesn't think lying about the draft is lying at all. I think thats as clear a signal as you can send that your cars are being tightly played. It was probably alllll set up last year when the wise cat Buddy decided to fool everyone into thinking he was taking Spiller, and then he did. So now this year everyone is thinking he might do the same thing... he's so smart - he set up his smoke screen last year... see, buddy is the smartest guy in the room.

 

also - i vote any of the DL, Peterson or Miller at 3, trade back in for an OL or QB if you deem one good enough.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

Hmmm, I took black hole to mean they don’t know what they are doing.

 

+1

[billsfreak]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/04/10/mmqb/1.html

 

 

You mean Buddy is out of the texting/twitter loop with all the NFL "insiders"?

That can mean a good thing or a bad thing. If they are intentionally able to hide their intentions from everyone else and indeed have a gameplan for the draft that is great. On the other hand, and more likely than not, it is because like last year, they are unsure of what they want to do, don't know what to do, are waiting for Ralph to tell them what to do or will just plain guess like last year. Any of the reasons in the second scenario are bad for the Bills and their fans.

 

This kinof baffled me:

 

49 Jacksonville Time for some competition for Garrard.

 

Don't they have Trent?

I don't think he is under contract. Always a chance Nix can bring him back and Gailey can name him the starter and the face of the franchise again then can him two weeks later. What a display of cluelessness that was.

[/dev/null]

So if time slows down the closer you get to a black hole, how does this work when the Bills (or anyone seated near the Bills) are on the clock?

[DrDawkinstein]

So if time slows down the closer you get to a black hole, how does this work when the Bills (or anyone seated near the Bills) are on the clock?

 

You just figured out what happened last year. The FO thought they were overdue on their pick, but in actuality it only took them 30 seconds to get it in. It wasnt bad draft strategy, it was physics.

[Sisyphean Bills]

That can mean a good thing or a bad thing. If they are intentionally able to hide their intentions from everyone else and indeed have a gameplan for the draft that is great. On the other hand, and more likely than not, it is because like last year, they are unsure of what they want to do, don't know what to do, are waiting for Ralph to tell them what to do or will just plain guess like last year. Any of the reasons in the second scenario are bad for the Bills and their fans.

There is another way one could look at it if Peter King meant his comment in a more general sense than simply that Buddy didn't return his call. In order to have a total information blackout, the team must not be talking to anyone, not just Peter King. Not talking to anyone means there can be no leaks. Still, the framework for trades in the draft are established during the combine and up to the draft, where management types discuss what they are shopping for and what they might be willing to offer, etc. In short, the only way deals get done is by talking to others. After all, who are they really kidding anyway? Other NFL teams have the tapes and can evaluate the Bills just as well if not better than the Bills themselves. They know the Bills weaknesses and the areas they need help. Nobody would be surprised to learn the Bills need help, for example, with their terrible pass rush.

 

Of course, King may have just meant that he couldn't get anything himself out of 1BD.

[Ramius]

 

I'm not sure if what I posted didn't make sense or what. I'm not talking about those two specific cases that BillsVet posted.

 

In general (read: league-wide and over the past 20 years if I remember correctly), a regime change more often than not improves the W-L record immediately in the first year. Now, obviously, one can trot out any number of hypotheses as to why that is, argue that it doesn't matter for the Bills, and suggest why the Bills of 2010 went the counter-trending direction. That's all well and good. Still, the fact is that it is more common for a regime change to take over a team and make it better from the word "go".

 

How about teams like the Buccs and chiefs? Both teams overahuled prior to 2009, and both teams sucked in 2009. Tampa fired everyone after going 9-7, and dropped to 3-13. Then then both showed improvement in 2010. Sometimes teams need to be torn down before the rebuilding can fully happen. Expecting a team to turn it around in one season is foolish.

 

And don't try to pass off seattle as a team that "did it right" They were a crappy team in a horrible division. Anywhere else in the league and that team goes 5-11 at best.

Edited April 12, 2011 by Ramius

[Sisyphean Bills]

How about teams like the Buccs and chiefs? Both teams overahuled prior to 2009, and both teams sucked in 2009. Tampa fired everyone after going 9-7, and dropped to 3-13. Then then both showed improvement in 2010. Sometimes teams need to be torn down before the rebuilding can fully happen. Expecting a team to turn it around in one season is foolish.

 

And don't try to pass off seattle as a team that "did it right" They were a crappy team in a horrible division. Anywhere else in the league and that team goes 5-11 at best.

Elementary, Watson. What is generally true is not true in every circumstance.

[FLFan]

I am sorry, but this seems a rather silly conversation over a single throwaway line from Peter King. So he cannot get information on draft strategy from OBD? Great. Glad to hear it. Lets move on.

[DrDawkinstein]

I am sorry, but this seems a rather silly conversation over a single throwaway line from Peter King. So he cannot get information on draft strategy from OBD? Great. Glad to hear it. Lets move on.

 

Youd think it would be that simple, right?

 

Too bad the Negative Nancys have to always find the worst possible meaning in every little statement...

 

Somehow they can turn "I'm not getting any info from the Bills" into "The Bills FO doesnt know what they are doing"

 

Only in Buffalo

[1B4IDie]

You know Peter King lifted that information from a teenage kid that broke the sacks down back in September.

http://player-rater.blogspot.com/2010/09/robert-quinn-2011-draft-scouting-report.html

 

I posted this article at the end of last season and people made fun of the fact it was teenager that wrote the article. Now Peter King posts the same information and its unquestionable.

Edited April 14, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[yungmack]

Here's my suggestion: If you really, really want to know what King meant, ask him. Send him an email. He's responded to me before and I'm sure, if you told him this was driving some people around here nuts, that he'd clear it up for you.

[Pete]

Here's my suggestion: If you really, really want to know what King meant, ask him. Send him an email. He's responded to me before and I'm sure, if you told him this was driving some people around here nuts, that he'd clear it up for you.

A black hole is a region of space from which nothing, not even light, can escape. This metaphor is obvious to me

[tennesseeboy]

A coach needs 4 of his own drafts to get it right. If after 4 off seasons the team still sucks, its the coach and GM. No doubt.. Anything less than 4 is tough. You could argue 3. But 1 or 2 is not enough time to get the type of players that he needs/wants in his systems.

 

 

any coach who comes in and gets four losing seasons should be shown the door. I believe this crew took over a team with seven wins, in a very difficulty season where the head coach was fired in mid season, and the team was injury wracked. I would have expected an absolute minimum of seven wins and would have been disappointed with less than nine

 

As to keeping them for another year, I'll accept that they changed the defensive system, but they've had more than a year to get the people to make that system work and now they have another draft to perfect it.

 

Offensively they have the same problem they started with, a crap offensive line. They have this draft to fix it, or free agency or trade.

 

Keeping them after two losing seasons would not be warranted.

[DrDawkinstein]

any coach who comes in and gets four losing seasons should be shown the door. I believe this crew took over a team with seven wins, in a very difficulty season where the head coach was fired in mid season, and the team was injury wracked. I would have expected an absolute minimum of seven wins and would have been disappointed with less than nine

 

As to keeping them for another year, I'll accept that they changed the defensive system, but they've had more than a year to get the people to make that system work and now they have another draft to perfect it.

 

Offensively they have the same problem they started with, a crap offensive line. They have this draft to fix it, or free agency or trade.

 

Keeping them after two losing seasons would not be warranted.

 

Turning everything over every 2 seasons is a great way to GUARANTEE every coach we bring in will have 2 losing seasons....

[papazoid]

A black hole is a region of space from which nothing, not even light, can escape. This metaphor is obvious to me

 

i hope your not talking about the whole space-time continuum thing......that can get messy, ya know. Kevin Butler

Edited April 14, 2011 by papazoid