Kentucky Derby 2011

[Mark Vader]

We are less than a month away from "The Run for the Roses". I always watch the Triple Crown Races, but I am not an expert on horse racing.

 

So I wanted to ask all of you who actually pay attention to these horses, who do you like coming into this race?

 

Is there a horse who can end the Triple Crown drought this year?

 

Any horses that are overrated or underrated?

 

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

Edited April 11, 2011 by Mark Vader

[plenzmd1]

We are less than a month away from "The Run for the Roses". I always watch the Triple Crown Races, but I am not an expert on horse racing.

 

So I wanted to ask all of you who actually pay attention to these horses, who do you like coming into this race?

 

Is there a horse who can end the Triple Crown drought this year?

 

Any horses that are overrated or underrated?

 

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

Uncle Mo losing in the Wood just like Secretariot?

[CowgirlsFan]

We are less than a month away from "The Run for the Roses". I always watch the Triple Crown Races, but I am not an expert on horse racing.

 

So I wanted to ask all of you who actually pay attention to these horses, who do you like coming into this race?

 

Is there a horse who can end the Triple Crown drought this year?

 

Any horses that are overrated or underrated?

 

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/

 

Two horses look good to me. Each one is trained by well known trainers. Dialed In is trained by Nick Zito and The Factor is trained by Bob Baffert. Then there is the unusal horse....Pants on Fire.

[Mark Vader]

BUMP

 

The Run for the Roses is this weekend. Who do you like?

[Albany,n.y.]

Kentucky Derby 137

 

Introduction: Before the post position draw, I was as confident in Archarcharch as any horse since Barbaro in 2006. However, when he drew the #1 post position, I had to rethink my position on him. I still have him #1 in my picks, but I will be including my top 6 in Oaks Derby Doubles with Zazu in the Oaks.

 

1) #1 Archarcharch (10/1): If he can stay out of early trouble, he will be able to tuck in behind the 1st tier of speed horses and save a lot of ground. On the other hand, he could get squeezed early and end up out of it, like Lookin’ at Lucky’s nightmare trip in 2010. Because Lucky’s trip was last year, many people will back off AAA, but after looking at the last 20 full or nearly full Derby fields, the odds of getting taken out by being in the #1 post position are about 20%. That means there’s an 80% chance that the #1 post will not be a detriment. With an 80% chance of him running his race, I like my chances, just not as much as I did before he drew post 1.

 

2) #15 Midnight Interlude (10/1): Conventional wisdom says you can’t win the Kentucky Derby if your horse hasn’t run as a 2yo. Fortunately, the Derby is a horse race & not a convention. If the rail does anything to compromise AAA, the beneficiary should be Midnight Interlude. Sure, if we had the 2yo Uncle Mo or a faster group, you could dismiss Midnight Interlude’s chances, but we have this group & Midnight Interlude is a major player. He only beat Comma to the Top by a head in his last, but CTTT came out into his path and might have been disqualified even if Midnight Interlude didn’t get by. The main thing Victor Espinoza will have to show is patience. This horse has enough early speed to get sucked into the upfront pace if Espinoza isn’t careful rating him correctly. Having Bob Baffert as your trainer in the Derby never hurts.

 

3) #17 Soldat (12/1): If we could get the Soldat who won an allowance in the slop at Gulfstream, getting the only negative Thorograph number in the field, then followed it up with a smashing wire to wire win in the Fountain of Youth, we could all go to the windows on Saturday with confidence. Unfortunately, we don’t know who we’re getting. Can’t upgrade him to the top, can’t downgrade him beyond 3rd.

 

4) #8 Dialed In (4/1): The ML favorite is the most likely horse to finish in the top 4, but he will be so far back early, I can’t see him winning. He’s the favorite, and he’s odds on to be sitting dead last or pretty close to it down the backstretch. He’ll have to make up a lot of ground and my top 2 picks have much better tactical speed than Dialed In.

 

5) # 19 Nehro (6/1): He has been improving all year and almost ran down AAA in Arkansas. If he was training better this week, I would rank him higher, but his training has been tepid this week. However, keep in mind this is his 3rd race since 3/26 and he raced 3 weeks ago, so maybe the best thing to do is to lighten up on him in the morning.

 

6) #14 Shakleford (12/1): Nobody has looked better in the morning than the locally based Shakleford. He’s impressed every clocker and was only a head behind the favorite in his last race. Anyone considering superfectas better not toss him.

 

7) #13 Mucho Macho Man (12/1): He’s definitely a contender if you look at his sheet numbers, but his breeding says no way to 1 ¼. With this bad a field, he could squeeze into the superfecta, but only if nothing else fires behind him & runs him down late, and Dialed In is almost certain to pass him somewhere in the stretch.

 

8) #7 Pants On Fire (20/1): His last looks good, but the big question is, does he have any ability to be truly rated? There are a lot of 1s in his pps and only 2 of them are at the finish. I just can’t see a horse that faded twice at a mile and 70 yards on Aqueduct’s inner dirt track winning the Kentucky Derby.

 

9) #4 Stay Thirsty (20/1): He ran a nice Gotham mile in his 1st race this year, beating Wood winner Toby’s Corner, then regressed badly in Florida. Like his stablemate Uncle Mo, if he could find his 2yo form, he’d have a big shot in here. I’m betting against that.

 

10)#5 Decisive Moment (30/1): On paper he doesn’t look that bad. The problem is he’s going to get caught up in the early pace and he’ll be cooked by the stretch.

 

11) #11 Master of Hounds (30/1): The mystery horse coming here after training in Europe after his 1 race this year on Tapeta in Dubai. He’s never been on dirt. Positive: he’s bred to run all day; Negative: his breeding is much more slanted to turf or synthetics.

 

12) #10 Twinspired (30/1): A nice play for the hunch players if they choose to ignore the fact that he looks like he’s strictly a synthetic runner. Still he has enough ability to avoid the extreme back of the pack at the finish.

 

13) #16 Animal Kingdom (30/1): Another horse who has never raced on dirt and is a big question mark. Looked good winning the Spiral in March at Turfway.

 

14) #2 Brilliant Speed (30/1) : The good news, he has one of the best young jockeys in the nation on his back. Joel Rosario will win a Derby pretty soon, but not this year. The bad news. His only two dirt races were horrendous. Sure they were sprints early in his career, but until he runs a good race on dirt, I have to dismiss him.

 

15) #3 Twice the Appeal (20/1): Calvin Borel is on the winner of the Sunland Park Derby, but this horse broke his maiden in a $30,000 maiden claimer lasr December. Not this time Calvin.

 

16) #9 Derby Kitten(30/1): The last horse to get in this race is another turf/synthetic horse whose 1 dirt race was poor-pass.

 

17)#12 Santiva (30/1): This horse’s year is difficult to understand. He runs a great race in his 3yo debut in February, then disappears until April, 3 weeks before the Derby, gets pinned on the rail and runs a total non effort. Now 3 weeks later, he’s in the Derby. If he duplicates his February race, he can actually win this. I’m voting against that happening.

 

18) #6 Comma to the Top (30/1): The likely pace setter almost hung on in the Santa Anita Derby (although I suspect he would have been DQ’d if he had finished 1st)

 

Just getting nipped by Midnight Interlude. However this horse will be tired after setting the pace and is more likely to finish last than finish 1st.

 

19)#20 Watch Me Go (50/1) The last horse in the gate will also be the last horse to finish. Ran the race of his life to win the Tampa Bay Derby at 43-1, but keep in mind, the 2nd place finisher in that race was coming out of a $16k claimer.

 

 

Uncle Mo is scratched.

[CowgirlsFan]

BUMP

 

The Run for the Roses is this weekend. Who do you like?

 

I still like Dialed In and The Factor.

[Pilsner]

Just a matter of time until a name is influenced by net terminology. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a "Meh" in the future. Looking forward to tomorrow. Getting into the races for the first time

[PromoTheRobot]

Is that today?

 

PTR

[UConn James]

3 hours of buildup for 2 minutes of real action.

[outsidethebox]

3 hours of buildup for 2 minutes of real action.

Isn't that a little personal?

[UConn James]

Isn't that a little personal?

 

 

Have to show some appreciation for that national anthem. For a long time I've wanted to hear someone (with the voice to handle it) put the emphasis on those words, "... that our flag was STILL THEREEE!!! O, say..." and that girl hit it. As usual from female singers these days, the rest was a Whitney Houston/Elmer-Fudd-sitting-on-a-blender vocalizations, but, given that, it wasn't bad. Was that Brandi?

 

On edit: It was Jordin Sparks.

Edited May 7, 2011 by UConn James

[DrDawkinstein]

3 hours of buildup for 2 minutes of real action.

 

Ive had the coverage on for background noise as Im working around the house. I looked away for a few seconds, and missed the entire thing.

 

At least I saw the reporting on all the different hats, and which celebrity was wearing what hat.

 

This whole thing sucks.

[bbb]

Was it just me or could you not hear what the race announcer was saying? I had no idea who won until the regular announcer came back in.

[UConn James]

Was it just me or could you not hear what the race announcer was saying? I had no idea who won until the regular announcer came back in.

 

Same here. It was entirely unintelligible.

 

They cut off the graphics at the 3rd turn --- this is usual --- which made it all the worse.

[bbb]

Same here. It was entirely unintelligible.

 

They cut off the graphics at the 3rd turn --- this is usual --- which made it all the worse.

 

Thanks - I know my hearing is going, but I was ready to call for a hearing aid during that race!

[Just Jack]

3 hours of buildup for 2 minutes of real action.

Just like my dates.

[UConn James]

Just like my dates.

 

Maybe you ought to try prunes.