dcjoev Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 (edited) I wrote a post about a month ago called "Bills May Luck Out". My point was that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix may have something up their sleeves when it comes to choosing their franchise quarterback. It may seem risky and far-fetched, but Buffalo could conceivably trade this year's #3 overall pick, their 3rd round selection and another draft choice to a QB-needy team that's desperate to move up to get a guy like Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. In return, Buffalo could demand that team's 1st round choice this year and their 1st rounder next year and use the picks as ammunition to better their chances of selecting Stanford QB Andrew Luck in 2012. Forecasting where a potential trade partner's gonna finish in any given year is a crap-shoot, but if the percentages are high that the organization will be one of the NFL'S 3 or 4 worst teams, Buffalo would be in prime position to draft Luck. Of course, if they need to move up to #1 next year, they'd have to package the high pick they receive, their own 2012 1st round choice & perhaps a 3rd rounder to do it. But if Nix and Gailey want Luck bad enough, they could and would. Hopefully the worst team in 2011 will already have their QB and will be open to a deal. That team may even turn out to be Buffalo's trading partner from this year. If this "best-case scenario" happened, the trade partner would already have Newton or Gabbert as their new face of the franchise and may be willing to deal with a team that gave them what they wanted in the first place. It's a lot of what-ifs, but it's a lot less insane than what Mike Ditka did years ago, when he traded all those Saints' draft choices for the chance to select Ricky Williams. One of the things I like most about Galley and Nix is that they have a history of identifying talent, coaching up that talent and incorporating it into a system for maximum benefit. I think if the Bills decide to select a QB this year, they'll do their best to build an offense around that particular QB's strengths. Newton, Gabbert, Jake Locker or Ryan Mallet would inevitably sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, much like Aaron Rodgers did behind Brett Favre in Green Bay (except not as long). Depending on the health of Ralph Wilson and if he's the team's owner for 2 more years, I think Gailey and Nix will have at least a year to sit the kid, who will watch and learn from Fitz. They've earned that right and will not be pressured into inserting an inexperienced QB into an NFL lineup until he's ready. If they choose this scenario, don't be surprised if the Bills sign a journeyman in free agency to serve as the #2 signal-caller, in case Fitz sustains an injury. But if they've already decided to pass on this year's QBs, anything can happen, including a draft-day trade. In my opinion there have been clear signs of a Buffalo smokescreen in recent days. This week, Gailey gushed about Newton & Gabbert like never before. I mean, he actually said that they have above-average talent and that both of them have what it takes to have early and long-term success. Does that sound like the same guy that said before the combine that it's "easier to coach up a one-year starter from a pro-style college system than one that's been in a spread offense for a year or two"? Don't be fooled by Gailey's sudden "change of heart." 40 to 50 pro day passes by Newton and Gabbert have not changed his mind. Unfortunately, other teams know a smokescreen when they see one. One NFL rep reportedly said that he didn't agree with Gailey's "can't-miss" comments about the two QBs. Nevertheless, if there's ever a good time to get the most out of a potential trade partner, now's the time. Gailey and Nix know that they have to coax QB-needy teams to "come correct" if they make an offer to move up. And by saying that he "expects to have it all figured out a couple of weeks BEFORE the draft", coach Gailey is lighting a fire under the asses of every possible trade partner! If those teams haven't done their due diligence to come up with an offer by now, then they definitely will after hearing that comment. Meanwhile, if the Bills drop down a few slots and wait til next year for a QB, how can they lose? With top-5 picks potentially earning much less than in the past and with a seasoned General Manager like Nix answering the phone, Buffalo can be as stubborn as it wants to be. And the Bills will be, until they get an offer they can't refuse. At worst, they'll get a quality 1st round selection and additional picks this year to improve the 2011 team! I'm already preparing to brace myself for a squashing of my Luck idea by a number of fans who read this post, but please at least acknowledge that it's not out of the realm of possibility. Of the 3 teams at the top of the draft, the Bills were probably the most disappointed when Luck decided to stay in school another season. If they were expecting to wheel and deal for the right to choose Luck this year, why would they not do the same next year? Of course, the league has warned teams to be careful about including 2012 draft picks in trade deals. Those teams will do so at their own risk. But that's if and only if the 2012 draft doesn't happen next year. I think the Bills will take that gamble because both trade partners would fill needs through this year's draft anyway and although players can not be traded, teams like Buffalo will be able to add depth when 2011 free agency occurs after the draft. Yes, there is a chance the Bills could lose their trade partner's 2012 1st round selection. That would be a travesty, but they would still have the option in 2012 to trade their own 1st round choice and a host of players and picks for the first overall selection next year. As many of you have said over and over, the Bills would be much better off concentrating on defensive line, linebacker, tight end and offensive line this year. As we get closer to this draft, I honestly think that they'd be crazy not to move forward with this option. I think they'll ultimately conclude that to be better now AND in the future, they need to go this route and get their franchise QB next year. That way, they'll solidify the trenches, improve their defense and running game and most importantly, their pass protection. With all that in place, the Bills will be better sooner and will be much more prepared to draft a rookie QB who will call Buffalo "home" for the next decade. Trust me, if the combine and pro days were good for anything, they proved that all of this year's QBs need time to learn, before they're thrown to the wolves. With a senior-year-to-go and a consensus of evaluators stating that he'll be more game-ready than anybody in this year's rookie class, Andrew Luck may be worth the wait. And if coach Gailey has him pegged as THE guy, "good 'ol' boy" Buddy Nix will find a way to make it happen! Edited March 25, 2011 by dcjoev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brenty Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 hahaha i am sorry but this view to me is like the conspiracy that bush was behind 9-11 or the holocaust never happened. CG said it from the beginning, he will draft the best player. I think he believe newton and gabbert are great players, but we dont know if he thinks they are 3rd pick. There is no way to predict who is going to be crappy next season because it all changes, lions and rams did pretty good for themselves, we were predicted to not win a game, seahawks were in the playoffs, just a dumb idea, im sorry. There is no way that he is creating a smoke screen of any sort to get andrew luck. As my 6yo nephew says, if you love him so much, why dont you marry him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 In my opinion, I think Gailey is building quite a smokescreen with the rave reviews he gave Newton & Gabbert this week. A well thought out and expressed post. However in my opinion the good ole boys don't have the desire or the shrewdness to execute a smokescreen. They are evaluating talent and will make their draft decisions based on who they think are the best players available. Pure and simple. Nothing less and certainly nothing more. I'm puzzled by the smokescreen obsession by some here. Why can't they just be thorough in their evaluation of talent? Maybe we as fans can afford to accept or dismiss players based on the musings of some media "experts". But it is their asses on the line. If I were them I'd take my time and make my own thoughtful evaluations and not give a rats ass if other teams watch who I am looking at. The Bills were 4-12 last year and drafted CJ Spiller #9 overall. What makes you think anyone else in the NFL cares who the Bills are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not with the 2012 draft status up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 i never understood this. to me there are 2 things wrong with this theory 1. so this smoke screen, we are telling everybody we want a qb at 3. so other teams who want the same qbs we do will want to trade with US to get that qb. wouldnt it make sense for that team to trade with pick 2 so they could nab them before us. i guess they could offer us a package we could not refuse, but that doesnt seem likely for the talent they are trading for. its not like they are throwing everything at peyton, and if teams where trying for it, any front office would turn any and all offers down for the opportunity to draft him 2. what is the history with the smoke screen and buddy and co. i seem to remember last year alot, alot, alot of people saying watch for spiller. nix and co had alot to say about him(and others as well). i know we made a big deal about tebow, but rumor has it we where beat out by denver. so again the smokescreen makes zero sense and i dont seem to recall last year there being this super thought out conspiracy theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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