Dr. Fong Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Well first of all, and I know it's a hypothetical, but there is no way we finish dead last this season. Even last year when a third of the board was screaming we wouldn't win a game, we won 4 and easily(for lack of a better word) could have won 7 or 8. You do understand that there were only two other teams that finished worse than the Bills last year. I don't think it's a stretch to believe that they may finish next season as the worst team in the NFL. I want to be optimistic and believe it won't happen, but when you're drafting third it's not much of a fall until you're drafting first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. Yes. The early first round is for franchise changing talent. That starts with QB's, skips a few beats and moves to the distant second LT and thirdly 4-3 DE. The occasional, once in a generation type talent at other positions might apply in the top few picks of a draft, but I don't see those guys in this draft. Patrick Peterson....he's got a lot of flaws, he could just as easily have to be shifted to safety and turn into another Derrick Gibson. Marcel Dareus....name the DT bust. Think Ryan Sims. Or Glenn Dorsey. These are just a couple examples. If you flame out on QB's, you go out guns blazing. If you bust on most other positions, you compromised and still lost. I've said it before, the draft is a process, not an event. When you are building, you don't waste picks on fringe players like RB/CB/WR/S. If you are in position to win a Super Bowl, perhaps you deviate from your policy once in a great while, but otherwise you build up your QB position, the players who protect that QB and the DL and the rest will take care of itself with value selections in the 3rd-7th rounds. And don't tell me about the stats that starting RB's or CB's come from the first round, etc.. They come from the first round because they are an easy evaluation, not because there are only good backs in round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 So the idea here is to spend a #3 pick this year on a QB we may never use--and then trade him next year for, what, a 3rd or 4th round pick? How bout we don't pick a QB this year and if we have the first pick next year we take Luck. If thats the case, i hope there's another QB in next years draft that we think will be a stud. We have to upgrade our QB position soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcjoev Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 (edited) I wrote a post about a month ago called "Bills May Luck Out". My point was that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix may have something up their sleeves when it comes to choosing their franchise quarterback. It may seem risky and far-fetched, but Buffalo could conceivably trade this year's #3 overall pick, their 3rd round selection and another draft choice to a QB-needy team that's desperate to move up to get a guy like Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. In return, Buffalo could demand that team's 1st round choice this year and their 1st rounder next year and use the picks as ammunition to better their chances of selecting Stanford QB Andrew Luck in 2012. Forecasting where a potential trade partner's gonna finish in any given year is a crap-shoot, but if the percentages are high that the organization will be one of the NFL'S 3 or 4 worst teams, Buffalo would be in prime position to draft Luck. Of course, if they need to move up to #1 next year, they'd have to package the high pick they receive, their own 2012 1st round choice & perhaps a 3rd rounder to do it. But if Nix and Gailey want Luck bad enough, they could and would. Hopefully the worst team in 2011 will already have their QB and will be open to a deal. That team may even turn out to be Buffalo's trading partner from this year. If this "best-case scenario" happened, the trade partner would already have Newton or Gabbert as their new face of the franchise and may be willing to deal with a team that gave them what they wanted in the first place. It's a lot of what-ifs, but it's a lot less insane than what Mike Ditka did years ago, when he traded all those Saints' draft choices for the chance to select Ricky Williams. One of the things I like most about Galley and Nix is that they have a history of identifying talent, coaching up that talent and incorporating it into a system for maximum benefit. I think if the Bills decide to select a QB this year, they'll do their best to build an offense around that particular QB's strengths. Newton, Gabbert, Jake Locker or Ryan Mallet would inevitably sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, much like Aaron Rodgers did behind Brett Favre in Green Bay (except not as long). Depending on the health of Ralph Wilson and if he's the team's owner for 2 more years, I think Gailey and Nix will have at least a year to sit the kid, who will watch and learn from Fitz. They've earned that right and will not be pressured into inserting an inexperienced QB into an NFL lineup until he's ready. If they choose this scenario, don't be surprised if the Bills sign a journeyman in free agency to serve as the #2 signal-caller, in case Fitz sustains an injury. But if they've already decided to pass on this year's QBs, anything can happen, including a draft-day trade. In my opinion there have been clear signs of a Buffalo smokescreen in recent days. This week, Gailey gushed about Newton & Gabbert like never before. I mean, he actually said that they have above-average talent and that both of them have what it takes to have early and long-term success. Does that sound like the same guy that said before the combine that it's "easier to coach up a one-year starter from a pro-style college system than one that's been in a spread offense for a year or two"? Don't be fooled by Gailey's sudden "change of heart." 40 to 50 pro day passes by Newton and Gabbert have not changed his mind. Unfortunately, other teams know a smokescreen when they see one. One NFL rep reportedly said that he didn't agree with Gailey's "can't-miss" comments about the two QBs. Nevertheless, if there's ever a good time to get the most out of a potential trade partner, now's the time. Gailey and Nix know that they have to coax QB-needy teams to "come correct" if they make an offer to move up. And by saying that he "expects to have it all figured out a couple of weeks BEFORE the draft", coach Gailey is lighting a fire under the asses of every possible trade partner! If those teams haven't done their due diligence to come up with an offer by now, then they definitely will after hearing that comment. Meanwhile, if the Bills drop down a few slots and wait til next year for a QB, how can they lose? With top-5 picks potentially earning much less than in the past and with a seasoned General Manager like Nix answering the phone, Buffalo can be as stubborn as it wants to be. And the Bills will be, until they get an offer they can't refuse. At worst, they'll get a quality 1st round selection and additional picks this year to improve the 2011 team! I'm already preparing to brace myself for a squashing of my Luck idea by a number of fans who read this post, but please at least acknowledge that it's not out of the realm of possibility. Of the 3 teams at the top of the draft, the Bills were probably the most disappointed when Luck decided to stay in school another season. If they were expecting to wheel and deal for the right to choose Luck this year, why would they not do the same next year? Of course, the league has warned teams to be careful about including 2012 draft picks in trade deals. Those teams will do so at their own risk. But that's if and only if the 2012 draft doesn't happen next year. I think the Bills will take that gamble because both trade partners would fill needs through this year's draft anyway and although players can not be traded, teams like Buffalo will be able to add depth when 2011 free agency occurs after the draft. Yes, there is a chance the Bills could lose their trade partner's 2012 1st round selection. That would be a travesty, but they would still have the option in 2012 to trade their own 1st round choice and a host of players and picks for the first overall selection next year. As many of you have said over and over, the Bills would be much better off concentrating on defensive line, linebacker, tight end and offensive line this year. As we get closer to this draft, I honestly think that they'd be crazy not to move forward with this option. I think they'll ultimately conclude that to be better now AND in the future, they need to go this route and get their franchise QB next year. That way, they'll solidify the trenches, improve their defense and running game and most importantly, their pass protection. With all that in place, the Bills will be better sooner and will be much more prepared to draft a rookie QB who will call Buffalo "home" for the next decade. Trust me, if the combine and pro days were good for anything, they proved that all of this year's QBs need time to learn, before they're thrown to the wolves. With a senior-year-to-go and a consensus of evaluators stating that he'll be more game-ready than anybody in this year's rookie class, Andrew Luck may be worth the wait. And if coach Gailey has him pegged as THE guy, "good 'ol' boy" Buddy Nix will find a way to make it happen! Edited March 25, 2011 by dcjoev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 you know, now that i think about it, i don't i've seen any mock draft with us taking Gabbert. Any time i've seen us taking a qb, it's always Cam http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=6249772 McShay has us taking Gabbert. For what that's worth. I wrote a post about a month ago called "Bills May Luck Out". My point was that the Bills may have something else up their sleaves. It may seem risky and far-fetched, but Buffalo could conceivably trade their #3 overall pick, their 3rd round selection and another pick or player to a QB needy team who wants to move up in this year's draft. In return, Buffalo could demand that team's 1st rounder this year and their 1st rounder next year. Forecasting where that team's gonna finish in 2011 is a crap-shoot, but if the percentages are high that they'll be one of the 3 or 4 worst teams in the league, Buffalo would be in position to draft Luck. Of course, if they need to move up to #1, they'd have to package their high pick with others next year to do it, but if they want him that bad, they will. Hopefully the worst team in 2011 will already have their QB and will be open to a deal. It's a lot of what-ifs, but it's a lot less insane than what Mike Ditka did all those years ago, when he traded all of the Saints draft choices for the chance to choose Ricky Williams. One of the things I like most about Buddy Nix & Chan Galley is that they have a history of identifying talent, coaching up that talent and incorporating it into a system for maximum benefits. I think if the Bills select Newton, Gabbert, Mallet or Locker, they'll do a masterful job of building an offense around that particular QB, while utilizing his strengths for maximum benefit. Whomever is picked will sit behind Fitz, much like Aaron Rodgers did behind Brett Favre in Green Bay (except not as long). Depending on the health of Ralph Wilson and if he's the team's owner for 2 more years, I think Nix and Gailey will have at least a year to sit the kid, who will watch & learn behind Fitz. They've earned that right and will not be pressured into inserting the kid into the lineup until he's ready. If this scenario happens, don't be surprised if the Bills look for a journeyman to serve as the #2 signal-caller. This scenario can obviously happen, but from the rave reviews Gailey made about Newton & Gabbert, I think he's building quite a smokescreen. But he needs to... He knows he has to coax QB needy teams to "come correct" if they make an offer to move up. And by saying that he expects to have it all figured out a couple of weeks BEFORE the draft, he's gonna make those teams scramble to get an offer ready. If the Bills drop down a few slots and wait til next year for a QB, how can they lose? With top 5 picks potentially earning much less than in the past and with a seasoned GM like Buddy Nix answering the phone, they can be as stubborn as they want to be until they get an offer they can't refuse. And most importantly, they"ll still get a quality 1st round selection and additional picks this year to improve the 2011 team! As many of you have said over and over, the Bills would be much better off concentrating on defense line, linebacker, tight end and offensive line this year. As we get closer to this draft, I honestly think that they'd be crazy not to move forward with this option. I think they'll conclude that to be better now AND in the future, they need to go this route and get their franchise QB next year. That way, they'll solidify their trenches, improve their defense, their blocking & their running game and be better prepared for a rookie QB who will call Buffalo "home" for the next decade. Trust me, if the combine and pro days did anything, they proved that all of this year's QBS need time to learn, before being thrown to the wolves. With a senior year to go and a consensus of evaluators stating that he'll be more game-ready than any of this year's crop of QBs, Andrew Luck may be just what Dr. Gailey has ordered. And if he's truly asking for it, "good 'ol' boy" Buddy Nix just has to find a way to get it! I think the Gabbert-Newton love by Nix is mainly an attempt to get a trade-down. All he has to do is get quarterback-hungry ARI, CLE or SF to leapfrog CIN by trading with us for their choice of Newton-Gabbert. What it does is get us a 2nd and 4th Rounder (if not a RD1 next year and a shot at Luck) and an earlier chance at fixing our defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted March 25, 2011 Author Share Posted March 25, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. just for the record.....heck ya i pick Andrew Luck..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Rob Johnson Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 I wrote a post about a month ago called "Bills May Luck Out". My point was that Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix may have something up their sleeves when it comes to choosing their franchise quarterback. It may seem risky and far-fetched, but Buffalo could conceivably trade this year's #3 overall pick, their 3rd round selection and another draft choice to a QB-needy team that's desperate to move up to get a guy like Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert. In return, Buffalo could demand that team's 1st round choice this year and their 1st rounder next year and use the picks as ammunition to better their chances of selecting Stanford QB Andrew Luck in 2012. The problem with that being the possibility of no draft next season and reports that trades involving picks from that draft not being honored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
947 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 The rookie salary cap will make the #1 pick extremely valuable, and highly coveted by a lot of teams. I could easily see teams lining up to trade for the #1 pick in 2012 to get Luck, it would bring in a haul bigger than the Hershel Walker trade. The Bills would be stupid to pass on what would probably amount to two 1st rounders & two 2nd rounders in exchange for the pick, just to pick a QB in the top-3 in consecutive years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. If recent past repeats itself Luck will be barely draft worthy by next year. Brohm fell from sure number one overall to second round then out of the league. Locker went from possible first overall to at best second round and some on here think he is not worthy of a draft pick. If in your scenario however Luck is still the consensus best player and we have already drafted Gabbert and Fitzy was good enough to keep Gabbert on the bench, then you trade down. If Luck is that good then there will be plenty of teams who want him. And if the Bills are that bad to finish dead last but yet not bad enough at the QB position to bench Fittz and play Gabbert there must be plenty of other places of need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thud Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Just draft Kapernick 2nd round. Probowl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. If Gabbert doesnt look the part and staff really isnt high on him anymore, then maybe. However, I doubt Gabbert even gets on the field next year unless Fitz gets hurt. So, given he is still our QB of the future, no way we take Luck. However, I do think the Bills would be in PRIME position to trade the pick for a Bounty in that case, and that is what I think they would certainly do if this all worked out this way. But you dont give up on your monster salaried 2nd year QB who you drafted #3 after one season, thats crippling to your franchise. We would trade either Gabbert or the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 I think the Gabbert-Newton love by Nix is mainly an attempt to get a trade-down. I don't think that at all...I think they're life long Football guys who know damn well the Bills need a Franchise QB...Neither Nix nor Gailey is the type to play Games much...I think they say what they mean and they mean what they say...I'm not saying they are always right either...Just saying that's how they are...A Franchise QB is absolutely #1 on The Bills list...Ralph has set that in stone...The only question is whether or not Nix/Gailey think Gabbert or Newton can be that guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 (edited) I see this: Just draft Kapernick 2nd round. Probowl! and remember this: Just draft Tony Pike 2nd round. Probowl! Edited March 27, 2011 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wing Man Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 You are assuming that our replacement players will be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I don't think that at all...I think they're life long Football guys who know damn well the Bills need a Franchise QB...Neither Nix nor Gailey is the type to play Games much...I think they say what they mean and they mean what they say...I'm not saying they are always right either...Just saying that's how they are...A Franchise QB is absolutely #1 on The Bills list...Ralph has set that in stone...The only question is whether or not Nix/Gailey think Gabbert or Newton can be that guy... The Bills need a long term answer at QB, but taking one for the sake of taking one is wrong as well. I would hope the talent evaluators are left to pick the best player at a position of need, and not forced into taking a QB. It's one thing to bust on a 8th-12th pick, but doing so in the top 5 takes a lot to recover from. Newton and Gabbert have issues that most top-5 drafted QB's don't have. Then again, Nix may not have a choice but to pick a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 The Bills need a long term answer at QB, but taking one for the sake of taking one is wrong as well. I would hope the talent evaluators are left to pick the best player at a position of need, and not forced into taking a QB. It's one thing to bust on a 8th-12th pick, but doing so in the top 5 takes a lot to recover from. Newton and Gabbert have issues that most top-5 drafted QB's don't have. Then again, Nix may not have a choice but to pick a QB. the player least likely to bust out of the league is Patrick Peterson.....at his size (219) and speed (4.3)he would be a star at Strong Safety should he struggle at corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. Yes then you see who is the best and trade the other a few years latter and get more picks out it, never know how a QB will turn out. However I doubt if we were doing that bad they sit Gab all year, half way through the season they would put him in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 lets say Carolina picks Dareus, Denver picks Fairly or Peterson. we pick Gabbert, he sits all year. we finish dead last and have 1st overall pick next year. would you select Andrew Luck assuming he continues to be the obvious best player. First off let me say i pray we don't waste the pick on Gabbert we have much more pressing needs to fill than QB at this point & time . But if they were that foolish & things worked out as you are saying then it's a given that if Luck picks up where he left off last year & doesn't pull a Locker & take 3 steps back then it would be smart to pick him up . But i for one don't see it going down that way & will put in a request with the big guy that it doesn't happen that way !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I think you could as long as you would be able to flip Gabbert for a mid 1st rounder. Take Luck 1st overall and get help at other positions with the 2nd round pick and the pick you get from trading Gabbert. I don't see why he wouldn't be trade-able for a decent pick a team looking to get a bargain could easily give up a pick in the late teens or early 20's for him. However I don't see the Bills drafting Gabbert as I think Fitz is the guy for this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 if that senerio happens, he will see playing time .... and plenty of it. Then you will have lots of film to make a decision. And, we will have lots of fodder to talk about another wasted draft pick. Just pick the best D-Lineman and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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