Astrobot Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 (edited) The talk about Cam Newton brings up an important point--How long can the Bills wait to fill a gaping hole at ILB? Or take a backup QB? Find NT help that can bump Williams out to DE? Get OLB's in case Maybin's let go, or Ellison doesn't grow? Draft a DE to replace Stroud? Take a RT? Here's my analysis, based on DraftTek Simulator, which uses the post-combine Big Board. You can tell when the computer selections become a "Reach" at any given position. I've decided that two successive reaches of over 8 slots at a given position is the "Last Round", and You Need to draft right before that 2nd reach. I've then put the positions in order, and made suggestions on Best Value at our picks based on who was still there at that pick. Defense: DE43-----Draft Before RD2, Pick 37. Suggestion: Nick Fairley RD1. ILB------Draft Before RD2, Pick 44. Suggest: KSheppard RD2, KJ Wright in RD3, C.Matthews RD4#99. DT34-----Draft Before RD3, Pick 70. Suggest: Jerrell Powe RD3 or Phil Taylor before Jets at RD1#30. OLB34----Draft Before RD3, Pick 95. Suggest: Brooks Reed or Sam Acho RD2; Chris Carter/Cliff Matthews before PGH/GB at RD3#95/96, or Dontay Moch in RD3. There will be no decent OLB's after RD3; all will be reaches. CB-------Draft Before RD4, Pick 118. Suggest: Peterson RD1, Curtis Marsh or Chekwa RD4#99, Gilchrist at RD4#121. S--------Draft Before RD5, Pick 143. Suggestion: Deunta Williams at RD4#99 or Chris Culliver at RD6#164. DE34-----Draft Before RD7, Pick 212. Suggestion: Fairley at RD1, Cameron Jordan before HOU at #11, Heyward at RD2#34 if he drops past NE, Pernell McPhee at RD4#121, Brandon Bair at RD7#195. Offense QB----Draft Before RD3, Pick 75. Suggest: Jake Locker before Seattle RD1#25, Mallett/Kaepernick/Dalton at RD3#68 before SF, TEN, MIA; OR McElroy/Devlin at RD5#130. OG----Draft Before RD4, Pick 123. Suggest: Moffitt if there at RD4#99, or draft second tackle or a center OC----Draft Before RD5, Pick 147. Suggest: Tim Barnes at RD4#121, Ryan Bartholomew RD6#164 RB----Draft Before RD7, Pick 212. Suggest: Da'Rel Scott RD7 or John Clay FA. OT----Draft Before RD7, Pick 217. Suggest: Carimi if he's there at RD2, or Cannon in RD2; Brewer RD5 TE----Draft Before RD7, Pick 222. Suggest: Jordan Cameron at RD6#164 WR----Draft Before RD7, Pick 222. Suggest: D. Johnson-Koulianos at RD7#195, Kris Adams at FA You have to get your DE34 and ILB early. Then NT or OLB34. Based on sheer best value, then, it's: RD1: Fairley DE/DT, Peterson CB/S (Dareus/Bowers were gone) RD2: KSheppard ILB, Carimi RT, Cannon RT, Heyward DE, Brooks Reed OLB RD3: Acho OLB, Carter OLB, KJ Wright/Cliff Matthews ILB, Jerrell Powe NT RD4#99: Curtis Marsh CB, Chekwa CB, Deunta Williams S, Tim Barnes OC, Moffitt OG RD4#121: Pernell McPhee DE34 RD5: Brewer OT RD6: Jordan Cameron TE, Bartholomew OC RD7: Da'Rel Scott RB, Johnson-Koulianos WR FA: Kris Adams WR, John Clay RB Edited March 10, 2011 by Astrobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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