Orton's Arm Posted March 9, 2011 Posted March 9, 2011 IMO, if there isnt a QB worth taking #3 overall, then there isnt a QB worth taking at all. Any later round QB is just a waste of a pick. This team doesnt need a QB, it has a QB. It needs an UPGRADE at QB, and given Fitz's experience he's at least 2-3 years ahead of any rookie. The question is "Do any of these guys have the potential to be better than Fitz". IMO, the only QBs that would fit into that would be worthy of the #3 pick. If we don't identify any QBs of being worth #3 overall, then extend Fitz for 5 years and build the team around him. And worry about upgrading him later. I'm not sure that there is a QB worthy of the #3 pick. But I am sure that I dont want to waste a later pick on a "good" QB. All or nothing. Franchise or Fitz. IMO. I strongly agree with your all-or-nothing philosophical approach. There's no sense in spending an early draft pick on a QB unless you think he's The Guy. That being said, you can never be 100% sure about a particular player being The Guy. Had Luck been available, you maybe assign an 80 - 90% probability of his being The Guy. No one in this draft is in that category. But there are players in this draft who have some chance of being The Guy. Maybe not an Andrew Luck chance, and maybe not a high enough chance to justify taking them third overall. But a chance. Take Christian Ponder for example. He's an accurate passer, is very smart, a hard worker, seems to read the field well, has solid athleticism, etc. You obviously don't take Ponder third overall. But if he's there in the second, maybe you feel that the chance of him being the next Drew Brees or Matt Schaub is high enough to justify the use of a draft pick. Suppose you were to take Ponder in the second, with the thought that there's a 25% chance of him becoming The Guy. Your reaction to that plan might be, "Why not wait until the 2012 draft, and use a first round pick on a QB that you feel reasonably confident will be the guy?" I'll grant that if it's a choice between Ponder in 2011 or Luck in 2012, I'd go for Luck every time. The only problem with that is that the Bills are very unlikely to have the worst record in the league this next season, which means Luck won't be an option for us. At this point, I don't know of any other first round QBs in the 2012 draft who'd be that much better than this year's first round crop. The best available QB in 2012 might not give us much more of a chance to be The Guy than Ponder gives us. If that's the case, then taking Ponder this year would make sense. Then we'd have this year and presumably next year to figure out whether that 25% chance of Ponder being The Guy was worth taking. If, while Ponder is still being evaluated, the Bills fall in love with some other QB, then obviously they should draft that QB if they can. You don't pass up a franchise QB just because someone on your roster gives you a 25% chance. But the more likely scenario is that the Bills will have had ample time to evaluate Ponder before having the opportunity to draft a Luck-like QB.
Alphadawg7 Posted March 9, 2011 Posted March 9, 2011 Did not see it posted anywhere... Was to be expected with the season he had with Fitz, but still nice to see our top receiver fully backing up the QB. http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/26685/steve-johnson-im-with-fitz-100-percent The WR's backed Losman too...doesnt make Losman good...lol
Orton's Arm Posted March 9, 2011 Posted March 9, 2011 The WR's backed Losman too...doesnt make Losman good...lol The most pro-JP receiver on the Bills was Lee Evans. This makes sense. The one thing JP Losman could really do well was to throw long bombs to Evans. And the one thing Evans could do very well was catch long bombs from Losman. So they were a good match. There seems to be similarly good chemistry between Fitz and Johnson. That being said, I agree with you: Fitz doesn't have the accuracy he needs to be at or close to the level of the best QBs in the league. The fact that Fitz is a huge upgrade over Edwards or Losman doesn't mean he's the long-term answer!
billsfreak Posted March 11, 2011 Posted March 11, 2011 Check out the link to see where ''Stone Hands'' ranks in drop passes... http://stats.nj.com/fb/leaders.asp?year=2010&range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving cut and pasted: Brandon Marshall - WR - Dolphins Brandon Marshall tied with Wes Welker, Steve Johnson, and Pierre Garcon for the most drops in the NFL (13) last season
Orton's Arm Posted March 11, 2011 Posted March 11, 2011 cut and pasted: Brandon Marshall - WR - Dolphins Brandon Marshall tied with Wes Welker, Steve Johnson, and Pierre Garcon for the most drops in the NFL (13) last season I'm not sure where the above text came from, but I didn't see it when I clicked on the link. According to that link, Wes Welker led the league in dropped passes with 13. Reggie Wayne was second with 12 drops. Stevie Johnson had 8 dropped passes.
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