Mike F Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 OK, last night, I went over the Bills chances at making the playoffs (it was a slow night at work). Off the top, they can still qualify for the fifth or sixth playoff position. The top four seeds (division winners) are out of the question (obviously). With that being said, the fifth slot is an extreme longshot, so this discussion will center around the sixth, and final slot (and a likely road game in San Diego or Indianapolis). Upon closer examination, the losses to Jacksonville (damn) and in Oakland (double damn) are most likely going to be the reason we DON'T make it. However, if we do, this is what we need to have happen. The Bills need to run the table (@Cincy, @SF and Pittsburgh) and finish 10-6. If they do, they will have a 6-6 conference record. If that happens, the Jets would need to go 0-3 (Sea, NE and @StL), to finish 9-7. We would lost a tiebreaker to the Jets, based on conference record (the Jets are 7-4 and would finish no worse then 7-5.....better then our 6-6). Not likely, since the Jets will probably pound either Seattle or St Louis. Baltimore would need to go no better then 1-2 (@Indy, @Pittsburgh and Miami), to finish 9-7 (they have the head to head tiebreaker with us). Possible, with the two tough road games. Denver would need to go no better then 1-2 (@KC, @Ten and Indy), to finish 9-7 (they are 5-4 in conference, with all conference games left.....if they went 2-1 down the stretch, they would have a 7-5 conference record and they would win the tie breaker with us). We need an upset in either KC or Ten, and we need to hope that Indy has something to play for, in the final week. Jacksonville would need to lose one more game (@GB, Houston and @Oak), to finish 9-7 (since they also would win the head to head tiebreaker with us). I think it comes this week, in GB. I am not going to detail the Bengals, since our chances hinge on beating them (if we don't, we don't really have much to talk about, anyway). IF all of those things happen, we would be the fifth seed and we would open the playoffs on the road, against the number four seed (SD right now, or possibly Indy). I don't see all of that happening.......................so, we would not worry about the Jets, too much (two games is alot to make up in three games total, especially if that team had a tiebreaker advantage). We should focus on the sixth seed (still a road game, most likely in Indy), and the scenarios in Denver and Baltimore. That being said, what if we lose another game? If we do, we are most likely screwed. Losing to one of the AFC teams left on our schedule, puts our conference record at 5-7. But, if the loss is out of conference (@SF), we could still finish 9-7, and 6-6 in the AFC. However, Denver and Baltimore would have to go 0-3 down the stretch and Jacksonville would have to lose 2 of 3 (Jets are out of the question in this case). Unless Denver ties us at 9-7, with a 6-6 AFC record. Not sure how that tie breaker works out, but something tells me that Baltimore would pass both of us, anyway. SO............we need to root like hell against the Broncos and Ravens, while hoping we run the table. Damn tiebreakers! Damn Hail Mary pass! Imagine if we had won either of the Jacksonville, or Oakland games? Or both! Cya.................Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJPearl2 Posted December 13, 2004 Share Posted December 13, 2004 Wrong - we win the tie-breaker with the Jets. Primary tie-breakers For Division ties: 1. Head-to-head 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games within division 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games For Wild-Card ties (2 Clubs): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJPearl2 Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 We take the tie-breaker with the Jets assuming they lose a division game to NE. There is hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oneida Lake Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 I am an idiot. I read these threads as if something different will come out of the overly flogged "my take on the playoffs" blather. We all know the situation. Unless you know of some obscure tiebreaker, longshot, new NFL ruling, the Ravens jet will Rosen on Thursday, Ralph has paid off the officials, snippet of info, please refrain from the "this is what has to happen" thread. We know. We ALL know. These threads have reached the level of "how can the Bills get in the playoffs" answer even MY WIFE can quote with accuracy (and she thinks "the Ralph" is something I left on the floor in the bathroom Saturday night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike F Posted December 14, 2004 Author Share Posted December 14, 2004 I was under the impression that we could post our opinions on this board. Hmm......if you don't like Bills playoff scenarios, don't read them (why I titled it that way). And, why would a Bills fan tire of reading about playoff chances? Anyway, I also thought that the first tie-breaker was head to head. Followed by Divisional record (if it applies) Followed by Conference record. In the Jets/Bills case, if the Jets lose to NE, we would be tied at 3-3 in the division. We also tied head to head, so........... Wouldn't the third tie breaker be AFC record (Jets 7-5, Bills 6-6)? I thought common opponents was a lower tie breaker (after conference record). Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJPearl2 Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 MikeF: Nope, the third tie-breaker is win percentage against common opponents and we would win that versus the Jets...someone did the math, but can't find it. Therefore, assuming NE beats the Jets (Jets are not playing that well and are pretty beat up) - then they need to lose one of the 2 games versus Seattle or St. Louis - and both teams are playing for the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOOOOOO Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Anyway, I also thought that the first tie-breaker was head to head. Followed by Divisional record (if it applies) Followed by Conference record. In the Jets/Bills case, if the Jets lose to NE, we would be tied at 3-3 in the division. We also tied head to head, so........... Wouldn't the third tie breaker be AFC record (Jets 7-5, Bills 6-6)? I thought common opponents was a lower tie breaker (after conference record). Mike 158960[/snapback] In Division the first tie breaker after head to head, and division record is common opponents.... If the Jets fall to 10-6(lose to NE), and we run the table(10-6).... We own the tiebreaker over the Jets.... There the only team we hold a tiebreaker with so.... LETS GO SEA/NE/STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 In Division the first tie breaker after head to head, and division record is common opponents.... If the Jets fall to 10-6(lose to NE), and we run the table(10-6).... We own the tiebreaker over the Jets.... There the only team we hold a tiebreaker with so.... LETS GO SEA/NE/STL 158969[/snapback] It's hard to believe that the Jets could lose to Seattle or St Lou. But how sweet it would be if the Bills qualified over their carcasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike F Posted December 14, 2004 Author Share Posted December 14, 2004 Thanks for the information.......................I still think it will be difficult to catch the Jets, but it is nice to know that we would own a tie breaker against them, if we do. Mike MikeF: Nope, the third tie-breaker is win percentage against common opponents and we would win that versus the Jets...someone did the math, but can't find it. Therefore, assuming NE beats the Jets (Jets are not playing that well and are pretty beat up) - then they need to lose one of the 2 games versus Seattle or St. Louis - and both teams are playing for the playoffs. 158967[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Eric Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 All of Buffalo's playoff hopes at 9-7 revolve around the lone remaining loss coming to San Francisco and/or the team jets of Baltimore, Denver, and Jacksonville crashing in the next couple of weeks. We can win a tiebreaker with Denver at 9-7, not at 10-6. Even at 9-7, Buffalo only wins the tie-breaker if their one loss is @SF. At 9-7 with a loss in SF both teams finish 6-6 in conference and Buffalo's 3-2 record beats Denver's 2-3 record among common opponents (Miami, Cincinnati, Oakland, Jacksonville). If both teams finish 10-6, Denver has a 7-5 conference record to Buffalo's 6-6. If Buffalo finished in a three-way tie w/ Denver and Baltimore at 9-7 (and, of course the one loss was in SF) they would all be 6-6 in conf, there wouldn't be enough common opponents to go by, and it would go to strength of victory where Buffalo would have a decent chance to win the tiebreaker. The same would apply to a 4-way tiebreaker at 9-7 with Jacksonville included (if you assume that they win in Green Bay and lose to Houston or Oakland). But in that case, Jacksonville probably wins a tiebreaker over the other three teams based on strength of victory. Being a loser with nothing better to do, I figure the teams (in this scenario w/the SF and GB outcomes being pivotal to the whole thing) Jacksonville beats end up with about 70 wins, the Ravens and Bills both right around 64, and Denver around 58 or 60. Still, I don't know why fans and the media are so pessimistic about their chances assuming they win out (which I think they will if they need to to make the playoffs)...there's all this stuff in the papers about a 10-6 team missing the playoffs in the AFC, and that's very unlikely to happen. Win ten and you're in. I don't see the Jets beating New England, and I think they lose to St. Louis in the dome if the game matters. That's 10-6 for them. Baltimore has no chance in Indy unless Jamal Lewis plays and is 100%, and they'd have to play a hell of a game to win in Pittsburgh. 9-7 for them. I personally think Denver goes 0-3 the rest of the way because they sure look like they're imploding. Even if they don't blow up, I don't think they're good enough to win back to back road games in tough stadiums like KC and Ten. Of the teams we're fighting with, Jacksonville scares me the most- they should beat Houston and Oakland, and they can't be counted out against a jeckyl and hyde team like Green Bay. Plus, despite probably being the youngest of the 4 teams contending for the last wild card spot, they seem to "know how to win" better than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njsue Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 OK, last night, I went over the Bills chances at making the playoffs (it was a slow night at work). Off the top, they can still qualify for the fifth or sixth playoff position. The top four seeds (division winners) are out of the question (obviously). With that being said, the fifth slot is an extreme longshot, so this discussion will center around the sixth, and final slot (and a likely road game in San Diego or Indianapolis). Upon closer examination, the losses to Jacksonville (damn) and in Oakland (double damn) are most likely going to be the reason we DON'T make it. However, if we do, this is what we need to have happen. The Bills need to run the table (@Cincy, @SF and Pittsburgh) and finish 10-6. If they do, they will have a 6-6 conference record. If that happens, the Jets would need to go 0-3 (Sea, NE and @StL), to finish 9-7. We would lost a tiebreaker to the Jets, based on conference record (the Jets are 7-4 and would finish no worse then 7-5.....better then our 6-6). Not likely, since the Jets will probably pound either Seattle or St Louis. Baltimore would need to go no better then 1-2 (@Indy, @Pittsburgh and Miami), to finish 9-7 (they have the head to head tiebreaker with us). Possible, with the two tough road games. Denver would need to go no better then 1-2 (@KC, @Ten and Indy), to finish 9-7 (they are 5-4 in conference, with all conference games left.....if they went 2-1 down the stretch, they would have a 7-5 conference record and they would win the tie breaker with us). We need an upset in either KC or Ten, and we need to hope that Indy has something to play for, in the final week. Jacksonville would need to lose one more game (@GB, Houston and @Oak), to finish 9-7 (since they also would win the head to head tiebreaker with us). I think it comes this week, in GB. I am not going to detail the Bengals, since our chances hinge on beating them (if we don't, we don't really have much to talk about, anyway). IF all of those things happen, we would be the fifth seed and we would open the playoffs on the road, against the number four seed (SD right now, or possibly Indy). I don't see all of that happening.......................so, we would not worry about the Jets, too much (two games is alot to make up in three games total, especially if that team had a tiebreaker advantage). We should focus on the sixth seed (still a road game, most likely in Indy), and the scenarios in Denver and Baltimore. That being said, what if we lose another game? If we do, we are most likely screwed. Losing to one of the AFC teams left on our schedule, puts our conference record at 5-7. But, if the loss is out of conference (@SF), we could still finish 9-7, and 6-6 in the AFC. However, Denver and Baltimore would have to go 0-3 down the stretch and Jacksonville would have to lose 2 of 3 (Jets are out of the question in this case). Unless Denver ties us at 9-7, with a 6-6 AFC record. Not sure how that tie breaker works out, but something tells me that Baltimore would pass both of us, anyway. SO............we need to root like hell against the Broncos and Ravens, while hoping we run the table. Damn tiebreakers! Damn Hail Mary pass! Imagine if we had won either of the Jacksonville, or Oakland games? Or both! Cya.................Mike 158934[/snapback] Dont expect the jests to pound anybody. They are very banged up on defense. Pennington shoulder is hurting. Plus Shawn Alexander will run all over them. I dont see the jest making it to the playoffs at all this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike in So Flo Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Of course all of this would be meaningless if the league and the networks hadn't taken the Bills victory away in Oakland. :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: TAGLIABUE/CBS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goatman Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Sounds like the trick is just to keep winning until we're out of it and root for any opponent of the Jets, bengals, ravens or jacksonville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Of course all of this would be meaningless if the league and the networks hadn't taken the Bills victory away in Oakland. :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: TAGLIABUE/CBS!!! 159541[/snapback] Well, you know....it really wasn't the network or the NFL there. The Travis dive from the 1 happened at the end of the 3rd quarter, so it's not like the officials had to review it. Mularkey should have thrown the red flag. What I don't remember is whether or not they had any timeouts left to afford a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Of the teams we're fighting with, Jacksonville scares me the most- they should beat Houston and Oakland, and they can't be counted out against a jeckyl and hyde team like Green Bay. Plus, despite probably being the youngest of the 4 teams contending for the last wild card spot, they seem to "know how to win" better than the others. I am also most worried about Jax. I can even envision a scenario where Buf and Jax go to the playoffs, leaving Bal, Den & the Jest at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 It's hard to believe that the Jets could lose to Seattle or St Lou. But how sweet it would be if the Bills qualified over their carcasses. 159016[/snapback] Seattle is very motivated. They are a game up on STL, but the Rams beat them twice, and currently, SEA's divisional record is 2 - 3, whereas STL's is 5 - 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 I am also most worried about Jax. I can even envision a scenario where Buf and Jax go to the playoffs, leaving Bal, Den & the Jest at home. 159642[/snapback] For what it's worth, Sean Salisbury on ESPN said last night that the Jets would finish no worse than 10-6 and the other four teams (Denver, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Buffalo) would all finish 9-7. Based on who he predicted those teams would beat down the stretch, he saw Jacksonville making the playoffs. I don't remember all of who he said would beat who, but I remember he did say that the Bills would beat Cincy and San Fran, but lose to Pittsburgh. Honestly, I think the media is giving the Steelers a bit too much love these days, but since they're winning, I guess I can't fault them. But if the Bills get that far, I'd be thrilled. Disappointed, yes, but happy they didn't quit on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWings Posted December 14, 2004 Share Posted December 14, 2004 Seattle is very motivated. They are a game up on STL, but the Rams beat them twice, and currently, SEA's divisional record is 2 - 3, whereas STL's is 5 - 0. 159660[/snapback] I really hope Seattle pulls it off. I typically enjoy watching the Rams offense and usually want to see them win. However, I lost a TON of respect for Mike Martz :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: when he accused the Bills of the cheap shots (a simple whining ploy, really). Nothing against the players on that team, but I hope they miss the playoffs because of Martz's stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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