QB of the future.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There is no doubt that Ryan Fitzpatrick has earned the starting position for 2011. But I think the Bills will pick a QB to groom in the lower first, second or third round. I think that Chan Galley likes Christian Ponder, but it's Nix who will pull the trigger. Which one will be the face of the team for the future?

 

I could be way off base, it seems to me the teams that get to the Superbowl are the ones that keep a solid NFL starter at QB while they build up the lines and the D....then get that QB and GO!

 

Many people are all in a wad about our great #3 pick, our "best shot" to get a great QB.

Everyone also seems to agree that the 1st round is the best chance to draft a "franchise quality" QB

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at whether it matters WHERE in the first round you draft your guy.

Used 10 year interval from 1997 ('cuz people say the modern game is different) to 2006 (5 year history; allow development)

Looked at 4 criteria, >70 CarAv from PFR, >60 % completion, > 6.8 YPA and <3% INT (except for CarAV, these are all stats I've heard as reasons why Fitz ain't 'franchise')

QB had to meet 3 of 4 criteria

 

Picks 1-10: 5 of 15 draftees (Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer). Eli Manning and Vince Young were in this group and met only 1 of 4 criteria.

Picks 11-20: 3 of 6 draftees (Chad Pennington, Ben Roethlisberger, Daunte Culpepper). Jay Cutler was in this group and only met 2 of 4 criteria.

Picks 21-32:6 draftees. Aaron Rodgers met 3 of 4 criteria, Jason Campbell met 2 of 4 criteria. Neither met CarAv criteria due to limited playing time (2005 draft), in 2 years should meet it.

 

For those scoring at home, that would be 17 busts out of 27 1st round QB - 14 of 27 if one wishes to give Eli M, VY and Cutler the benefit of the doubt.

 

Bottom line, unless we think the Bills will magically draft in the top 1/3 next year, don't stress about needing this year's #3 pick to grab a franchise QB; quality QB are available throughout the 1st round.

Besides, if we don't improve our defense substantially, chances are great for another top pick next year

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Paea is a DT in a 43 not a NT. Kaepernick has a ton of work ahead of him. And explain how Ponder is Fitz?

Paea is a stud and could play end or DT in are multiple D, Ponder super smart and average athlete.

[Bangarang]

Paea is a stud and could play end or DT in are multiple D, Ponder super smart and average athlete.

 

Paea is going to strictly be a DT in a 4-3. And Ponder is actually a very good athlete. A much better athlete than Fitz is. But okay..

[Chandemonium]

I don't watch enough college football to endorse one guy in particular, but I don't want a qb taken in the third round or later. You take a qb in the top two rounds if you think he can be the guy, in rounds 3 and later you're generally drafting backups. We already have a young late rounder with upside who has been in the system for a year, and I don't see the point in adding another rookie unless you think he can be a long term starter.

[Hplarrm]

 

Picks 1-10: 5 of 15 draftees (Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer). Eli Manning and Vince Young were in this group and met only 1 of 4 criteria.

 

I do not think you are off base at all suggesting we do not draft a QB in the first round based on your detailed analysis,

In fact, add to your analysis that a majority of the players you mention as 1-10 picks either were acquired by the teams which have them in trades or as FAs (even Peyton Manning is going to be tagged to keep him in Indy) and it is clear that a playoff making QB cannot only be picked later in the draft, but in fact these first rounders if one insists on having one are often acquired bty means other than drafting them.

 

We should not spend not spend the #3 on a QB but instead build a winning team and pick-up our franchise QB in the wide variety of options which other teams have used to get their stud QB.

[Thoner7]

I went with other as I want Luck next year.

 

That doesnt mean I want us to go 0-16, just that I want us to do whatever it takes to get him. I think he could be as good as Rogers.

[Rockinon]

I could be way off base, it seems to me the teams that get to the Superbowl are the ones that keep a solid NFL starter at QB while they build up the lines and the D....then get that QB and GO!

 

Many people are all in a wad about our great #3 pick, our "best shot" to get a great QB.

Everyone also seems to agree that the 1st round is the best chance to draft a "franchise quality" QB

I thought it would be interesting to look at whether it matters WHERE in the first round you draft your guy.

Used 10 year interval from 1997 ('cuz people say the modern game is different) to 2006 (5 year history; allow development)

Looked at 4 criteria, >70 CarAv from PFR, >60 % completion, > 6.8 YPA and <3% INT (except for CarAV, these are all stats I've heard as reasons why Fitz ain't 'franchise')

QB had to meet 3 of 4 criteria

 

Picks 1-10: 5 of 15 draftees (Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer). Eli Manning and Vince Young were in this group and met only 1 of 4 criteria.

Picks 11-20: 3 of 6 draftees (Chad Pennington, Ben Roethlisberger, Daunte Culpepper). Jay Cutler was in this group and only met 2 of 4 criteria.

Picks 21-32:6 draftees. Aaron Rodgers met 3 of 4 criteria, Jason Campbell met 2 of 4 criteria. Neither met CarAv criteria due to limited playing time (2005 draft), in 2 years should meet it.

 

For those scoring at home, that would be 17 busts out of 27 1st round QB - 14 of 27 if one wishes to give Eli M, VY and Cutler the benefit of the doubt.

 

Bottom line, unless we think the Bills will magically draft in the top 1/3 next year, don't stress about needing this year's #3 pick to grab a franchise QB; quality QB are available throughout the 1st round.

Besides, if we don't improve our defense substantially, chances are great for another top pick next year

No they don't. Historically, you are correct but not in this draft. The problem is that Andrew Luck did not come out and everyone else significantly pales in comparison. Not everyone is willing to take that risk.

[gumby]

If the Bills take any of those guys he'll be the starter before the end of the 2011 season.

[WordByrd]

trade next year's draft for ANDREW LUCK

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Paea is going to strictly be a DT in a 4-3. And Ponder is actually a very good athlete. A much better athlete than Fitz is. But okay..

 

Agreed that Paea is best suited to play DT in the 4-3. I don't know if I would say that Ponder is a "very good" athlete, however. I would say, based on what I've witnessed, that he and Fitz share similar athletic abilities. Also, have you ever seen Ponder throw the long ball? It's enough to make you throw up. Looks like a wounded duck floppin through the breeze. No thanks to Ponder unless he lasts to round 4 or 5 (which I see as being a good possibility).

[tonyjustbcuz]

I think its Fitz for a few years. I just see too many holes in this team that are more pressing than QB right now. Is Fitz going to take us to the SuperBowl? Probably not. With a pass rush, a run defense and some better blocking from the OL will he take us to a 10-6 or 11-5 record? I really think so. That being said, if Chan decides that Newton has too much "upside" to pass on, then he is the pick at 3. As much as it scares, it excites me the same amount, if not more. The kid's talent is unmeasurable. He is like Vick, but accurate. Or McNabb, but able to win the "Big Games" that he played in. I really want Defensive Front 7 help at 3, but if we take Newton, I'll be excited about it.

 

 

 

 

If we don't think Fitz has the tools to take us to the SuperBowl then we should draft the best QB that does! (If that's Newton or Gabbert I'm good with it..if the organization believes we got the right guy! It's hard enough with the realization that most drafted QB's are not ready out of the gate in their rookie season to start. To win a Superbowl is the WHOLE reason the teams play the game! Borrowing a former coaches phrase,"You play to win the game." If Fitz is Gailey's starter this year, that means any rookie QB will only get reps (barring injury) in practices. It will take probably 2 yrs in development (or more) in that scenario which means if the Bills do put together all the other pieces to become a contender in a year or two, (which I'm not optimistic to date) the one piece of the puzzle you don't want to be missing or delay further would be at the QB position, especially due to the lengthy learning process of the position.

 

In the (lately) pass happy NFL the QB is the most vital component of a team. Just look at the Superbowl QB's this year, last year the same holds true! Yes, we have many holes, and we do need a good DT to stop the run, because that is killing our ability to stop teams on third down, and also prevents us for controlling time of possesion, therefore; limiting our offensive opportunities as well. It was not Troy Polmaulu (sp?) of Pittsburgh, or the Packers Clay Matthews that were game changers in the Superbowl. It came down to Rothlesburger made costly interceptions in the game, and Aaron Rodgers threw 3 T.D.'S and limited his mistakes that was the DECIDING factor in the Superbowl.

 

Basically, in analogy form it's like each year we replace parts for our car. We drafted a RB, and traded away a functional RB. Is that car really any better? What was the differential in yards of each RB? Lynch may have been better? You can argue that point, but you can't prove it based on production. (personally I couldn't stand Lynch!).

But are we better for doing all that? Still the same car!

 

The year before, we buy a new part...(Maybin)..a one year wonder part which is a pwr steering pump..it's a little smaller than (A. Schobel) the other part was, but based on one year of testing is suppose to operate better, (Just ask the NAPA representative who swore by the part..(Poz)..a little quicker to deliver the fluids to steering components of the vehicle. Unfortunately, it just hasn't performed well at all...we've given that pump a 2yr break-in period and it looks like that steering pump will have to replaced once again. What a waste it was buying that pump to begin with! Is our vehicle any better because of it? No, it's probably worse!

 

All these parts is just part of a circle of self-destruction of the Bills franchise. Even as we get new parts, we are only replacing parts that weren't orignial factory parts. Castoffs, or parts that were cheaper than the competition uses. Nix only believes in mid grade Free agents, he doesn't believe big name free agents will have the impact to make a difference. I don't believe him for a minute! What it means is that he is constrained financially by what he is allowed to do by the owner and will plug gaps with marginal talent or has beens like Shawn Merriman who once was a dominant force in the NFL. The Bills strategy has not differed much from the Sabres philosophy the past few years under Goliosono.

 

The second part of the circle of the Bills self-destruction is that the past several years when a player of significance is up for a new contract as a freeagent, the Bills do not make a significant enough offer to retain the player. So instead, we lose players like Jabari Greer, Leonhard, Antwoine Smith, Pat Williams, Nate Clements, etc....players that are our very good players. When this occurs it creates another hole in our roster that is self-imposed and forces us to draft a player at that positon or find a street freeagent of marginal talent to replace a player that was better, therefore; degrading the overall talent base of the team a little more!

 

 

So what can be learned from my lenghty rant about what ills the Bills?

 

#1. The QB is the brain center, the engine of the car, and without superior talent at the positon we will never bring home the bacon!

 

#2. Management can't afford to create more holes on your team because you don't want to pay to retain talent, it's more expensive to replace equal talent in the end, and if your M/O is to stay within budget constraints you are instead often degrading talent!

 

#3. The main point though is good organizations remain good as it all boils down to ownership and the williness to spend enough, and in the right places to succeed! ie: Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, etc..

 

Note: Based on ownership, I don't forsee the Bills using their #3 pick on a QB as a QB selected that high in the draft is going to require a lofty financial committment that this organization is not accustomed to delivering.

Instead we'll replace a waterpump, an alternator, a battery, instead of replacing the engine.

 

 

 

Thanks!

Edited February 13, 2011 by tonyjustbcuz

[Johnny Hammersticks]

If we don't think Fitz has the tools to take us to the SuperBowl then we should draft the best QB that does! (If that's Newton or Gabbert I'm good with it..if the organization believes we got the right guy! It's hard enough with the realization that most drafted QB's are not ready out of the gate in their rookie season to start. To win a Superbowl is the WHOLE reason the teams play the game! Borrowing a former coaches phrase,"You play to win the game." If Fitz is Gailey's starter this year, that means any rookie QB will only get reps (barring injury) in practices. It will take probably 2 yrs in development (or more) in that scenario which means if the Bills do put together all the other pieces to become a contender in a year or two, (which I'm not optimistic to date) the one piece of the puzzle you don't want to be missing or delay further would be at the QB position, especially due to the lengthy learning process of the position.

 

In the (lately) pass happy NFL the QB is the most vital component of a team. Just look at the Superbowl QB's this year, last year the same holds true! Yes, we have many holes, and we do need a good DT to stop the run, because that is killing our ability to stop teams on third down, and also prevents us for controlling time of possesion, therefore; limiting our offensive opportunities as well. It was not Troy Polmaulu (sp?) of Pittsburgh, or the Packers Clay Matthews that were game changers in the Superbowl. It came down to Rothlesburger made costly interceptions in the game, and Aaron Rodgers threw 3 T.D.'S and limited his mistakes that was the DECIDING factor in the Superbowl.

 

Basically, in analogy form it's like each year we replace parts for our car. We drafted a RB, and traded away a functional RB. Is that car really any better? What was the differential in yards of each RB? Lynch may have been better? You can argue that point, but you can't prove it based on production. (personally I couldn't stand Lynch!).

But are we better for doing all that? Still the same car!

 

The year before, we buy a new part...(Maybin)..a one year wonder part which is a pwr steering pump..it's a little smaller than (A. Schobel) the other part was, but based on one year of testing is suppose to operate better, (Just ask the NAPA representative who swore by the part..(Poz)..a little quicker to deliver the fluids to steering components of the vehicle. Unfortunately, it just hasn't performed well at all...we've given that pump a 2yr break-in period and it looks like that steering pump will have to replaced once again. What a waste it was buying that pump to begin with! Is our vehicle any better because of it? No, it's probably worse!

 

All these parts is just part of a circle of self-destruction of the Bills franchise. Even as we get new parts, we are only replacing parts that weren't orignial factory parts. Castoffs, or parts that were cheaper than the competition uses. Nix only believes in mid grade Free agents, he doesn't believe big name free agents will have the impact to make a difference. I don't believe him for a minute! What it means is that he is constrained financially by what he is allowed to do by the owner and will plug gaps with marginal talent or has beens like Shawn Merriman who once was a dominant force in the NFL. The Bills strategy has not differed much from the Sabres philosophy the past few years under Goliosono.

 

The second part of the circle of the Bills self-destruction is that the past several years when a player of significance is up for a new contract as a freeagent, the Bills do not make a significant enough offer to retain the player. So instead, we lose players like Jabari Greer, Leonhard, Antwoine Smith, Pat Williams, Nate Clements, etc....players that are our very good players. When this occurs it creates another hole in our roster that is self-imposed and forces us to draft a player at that positon or find a street freeagent of marginal talent to replace a player that was better, therefore; degrading the overall talent base of the team a little more!

 

 

So what can be learned from my lenghty rant about what ills the Bills?

 

#1. The QB is the brain center, the engine of the car, and without superior talent at the positon we will never bring home the bacon!

 

#2. Management can't afford to create more holes on your team because you don't want to pay to retain talent, it's more expensive to replace equal talent in the end, and if your M/O is to stay within budget constraints you are instead often degrading talent!

 

#3. The main point though is good organizations remain good as it all boils down to ownership and the williness to spend enough to succeed! ie: Pittsburgh, New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, etc..

 

Note: Based on ownership, I don't forsee the Bills using their #3 pick on a QB as a QB selected that high in the draft is going to require a lofty financial committment that this organization is not accustomed to delivering.

Instead we'll replace a waterpump, an alternator, a battery, instead of replacing the engine.

 

One might argue that Fitz is a pretty darn good engine, and why would you replace a perfectly good engine when you have a blown alternator, bald tires, a leaky radiator, and a failing transmission?

[tonyjustbcuz]

I could be way off base, it seems to me the teams that get to the Superbowl are the ones that keep a solid NFL starter at QB while they build up the lines and the D....then get that QB and GO!

 

Many people are all in a wad about our great #3 pick, our "best shot" to get a great QB.

Everyone also seems to agree that the 1st round is the best chance to draft a "franchise quality" QB

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at whether it matters WHERE in the first round you draft your guy.

Used 10 year interval from 1997 ('cuz people say the modern game is different) to 2006 (5 year history; allow development)

Looked at 4 criteria, >70 CarAv from PFR, >60 % completion, > 6.8 YPA and <3% INT (except for CarAV, these are all stats I've heard as reasons why Fitz ain't 'franchise')

QB had to meet 3 of 4 criteria

 

Picks 1-10: 5 of 15 draftees (Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer). Eli Manning and Vince Young were in this group and met only 1 of 4 criteria.

Picks 11-20: 3 of 6 draftees (Chad Pennington, Ben Roethlisberger, Daunte Culpepper). Jay Cutler was in this group and only met 2 of 4 criteria.

Picks 21-32:6 draftees. Aaron Rodgers met 3 of 4 criteria, Jason Campbell met 2 of 4 criteria. Neither met CarAv criteria due to limited playing time (2005 draft), in 2 years should meet it.

 

For those scoring at home, that would be 17 busts out of 27 1st round QB - 14 of 27 if one wishes to give Eli M, VY and Cutler the benefit of the doubt.

 

Bottom line, unless we think the Bills will magically draft in the top 1/3 next year, don't stress about needing this year's #3 pick to grab a franchise QB; quality QB are available throughout the 1st round.

Besides, if we don't improve our defense substantially, chances are great for another top pick next year

 

 

agreed! Unless we reach and select the next Lossman that is..Scouting appropriately, and not missing is essential here! I want a winner with all the tools that performed as such at the level on a winning team! I don't want a player with tools, that was on a losing, underperforming team like Trent Edwards was when he was drafted. I want him to have success at that level first, instead of thinking he can win despite the lack of talent around him!

That being said, I guess I am answering my self-imposed debate of which QB I would select if I had the pick of the litter...Sudden realization just made me select Cam Newton! All the physical tools, performed at the college level,Heisman (which is no guarantee of success in the NFL)..Can throw very well, good mechanics, can run, and has strong desire to win! The only negative is some issues about theft of a computer & his father supposedly soliciting his services to the highest bidder, but you can never predict future criminal/moral issues. O.J. seemed to be a mild mannered player who just loved the game! We were fooled on that one!!!

[Bangarang]

Agreed that Paea is best suited to play DT in the 4-3. I don't know if I would say that Ponder is a "very good" athlete, however. I would say, based on what I've witnessed, that he and Fitz share similar athletic abilities. Also, have you ever seen Ponder throw the long ball? It's enough to make you throw up. Looks like a wounded duck floppin through the breeze. No thanks to Ponder unless he lasts to round 4 or 5 (which I see as being a good possibility).

 

It shouldn't even be a debate. Ponder is a better athlete than Fitz. And in regards to Ponder throwing a long ball. Yes, I've seen him do it enough times to know that he has the arm strength to make every NFL throw with enough velocity. Case in point.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-Jar435rnc

[Johnny Hammersticks]

It shouldn't even be a debate. Ponder is a better athlete than Fitz. And in regards to Ponder throwing a long ball. Yes, I've seen him do it enough times to know that he has the arm strength to make every NFL throw with enough velocity. Case in point.

 

youtube.com/watch?v=B-Jar435rnc

 

So which point were you trying to illustrate there? Was it that Ponder is unequivocally a better athlete than Fitz, or is it that he possesses the arm strength to make every NFL throw? What I saw was a QB with average speed waddle away from pressure and make a pretty good 50 yard throw. This was just ONE play against perennial power...South Florida. Case in point? I think you would need to take a look at a little more film before you could make any of those assertions.

 

Look...I'm not knockin Ponder. I think he is a smart, "coachable" QB with average athleticism, as well as, average arm strength and accuracy. The problem I have with drafting him in rounds 1-3 is...I done see how he is a significant upgrade over Fitzpatrick. Not significant enough to warrant using one of those three first picks. If he is still around in rounds 4 or 5 they heck yeah...at the very least he will be a solid back-up.

[b stein 22]

FItz is the future. Where is that option?

Edited February 13, 2011 by b stein 22

[bobobonators]

Fitz.

[NewEra]

Kaepernick is the way to go, Ponder is Fitz so why bother.

 

1. Robert Quinn

2. Stephen Paea

3. Colin Capernick

4. Chris White

 

"ponder is Fitz"....you should apply for a position with the bills FO if you know this. You're obviously extremely gifted in the scouting dept, something we need help with.

 

 

I'll take my crack at it:

 

Robert Quinn is Vernon Gholston

Stephen Paea is Junior Siavii

Colin Capernick is Josh Johnson

Chris White is Brandon Spoon

 

What a draft that would be huh? We'd be a shoo in for the playoffs.

 

Btw, ponder has a much stronger arm than Fitz. No comparison

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There is no doubt that Ryan Fitzpatrick has earned the starting position for 2011. But I think the Bills will pick a QB to groom in the lower first, second or third round. I think that Chan Galley likes Christian Ponder, but it's Nix who will pull the trigger. Which one will be the face of the team for the future?

 

Wow, so a couple weeks ago there was a poll where everyone indicated the team's strongest needs were LB and DL

 

Now there's a poll saying we should draft a QB in the 1st round

 

What's up with that?

[Talley56]

I said Gabbert just because I think he is the best QB coming out and I think physically he has the best chance (height, strength, arm, etc). But I'm really not sold on this year's QB class. I couldn't even say other because there's really no one else I'm confident in except for maybe Devlin as a sleeper.