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Posted

I've come to the conclusion that Cam Newton will become the first pick in this draft. I was just on a Carolina Panther message board and there's a 62 page thread regarding Newton (and his recent workout) that started only two days ago. That is the kind of "Super Juice" a team that struggles offensively wants with the number one pick. This time last year, Bradford started out as the 10-12th pick until his stock surged and the same thing is going to happen (for differing reasons) with the supremely talented Newton. Once the experts come around and literally start drooling and hyperventilating over him like Trent Dilfer did, the writing's on the wall.

 

The only way I see Newton being drafted by the Bills is if they offer them Fitzpatrick and their 2nd pick to switch the 1st and 3rd picks.

 

It will go...

 

1. Newton/Panthers

2. Peterson/Broncos

3. Green or Fairley/Bills - it all depends on how Nick Fairley checks out maturity-wise or not

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Posted

ummm, no? I have no idea where your logic is coming from, but if you don't think GM's play games to try to get the draft picks/position that they want, then you're kidding yourself.

Posted

Last year, there was only one highly ranked qb in the draft. The Rams, with the first pick, took advantage of their high draft status. Do you think they have regrets about taking Bradford? This year we might be in position to take one of the limited number of highly rated qb prospects. There comes a time when you have to take the plunge and get that position solidified. Then you systematically address the other many needs on the team.

 

I don't think the Rams regret taking Bradford. I think they would have regrets if they'd taken Clausen.

 

There may be a franchise QB in this year's draft. The question is "who?" There is no one I see who stands out without serious questions. But maybe that's just me.

 

From WalterFootball on 2010 QB prospects:

4/9/10: Jimmy Clausen completed 57-of-59 passes at his Pro Day, with the two misfires coming on fade routes to a relatively slow receiver (should have been Michael Floyd). Clausen is still arguably the top quarterback in this class.

1/3/10: Jimmy Clausen has declared for the 2010 NFL Draft. <...>Jimmy Clausen has a great shot at going No. 1. <...>The Rams would be making a grave mistake by eschewing Clausen.

 

I remember reading similar things from Kiper and a couple other "big shot" draft analysts.

 

To say there was only one highly ranked QB in the draft last year is 20-20 hindsight at its best.

Posted (edited)
<br />Let me ask you a few questions: <br />1) Are you old enough to have enjoyed watching Jim Kelly's career as the Bills HOF quarterback from 1986 - 1996? <br />2) If you are, did you enjoy the excitement of Kelly leading the Bills to 4 consecutive SB appearances, despite not winning any of them a feat that I cannot imagine ever being repeated by one single team again?? <br />3) Do you know the winning quarterbacks for the past 10 SB teams?: Let me remind you: Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tom Brady, <b>Brad Johnson</b> and Tom Brady. <br /><br />6 of those 7 different winning SB QB's are franchise QB's and everyone of them are still top 5 QB's in the NFL today. Brad Johnson is the only one of those 10 that we <i>might</i> compare favorably to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but even he had a better career then Fitzy to this point in Fitzy's career.<br /><br />I don't know, I certainly can see the light, but it seems you and hundreds of others on this forum and the Bills organization refuse to accept it. Ever since 1997, the Bills have either refused to or have been unable to draft or trade for their next franchise QB after Jimbo. We are now going on our 15th season without one. Do you think it's just a <b>coincidence</b> that over those 14 seasons without a franchise QB, the Bills have a record of 0-2 in the playoffs?? Yet in the previous 11 seasons Kelly <b>was</b> their franchise QB, their playoff record was 11-8-0 including their unfortunate 0-4-0 in SB's?? 19 playoff games in just 11 seasons with a franchise QB and 2 playoff games in 14 seasons without one. Gee, can I get a big <b>DUH?</b> <img src='http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/public/style_emoticons/default/doh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':doh:' /> <br /><br />But despite these <b>FACTS</b>, there still are only a few of us out here that think Nix would be a "fox" to just draft Newton or Ponder or Gabbert or whoever is at the top of his QB board <b>with</b> the number 3 pick in this years draft!! <i>"Oh no, that would be a waste of a draft pick with all of our needs on defense",</i> right???" <i>"Oh, Nix should trade down for extra picks"</i>, right?<br /><br />So Von Miller is the "smart" pick, or, trading down later in the first round and taking someone out of the top 5 range along without getting our QB is the "smart choice"?? <br /><br />No, the smart choice to choose the QB first, and work on the rest of the team second. That formula has been proven 100% CORRECT in about 90% of the franchises that have gone on to win Super Bowls. I like taking the 90% correct route myself, but that is just my own humble opinion.<br />

 

Let me ask a few questions...Do you really honestly trust this band of of clowns to schlep to the podium in this upcoming draft and choose a viable prospect at any position? Considering they chose Aaron Maybin and CJ Spiller the last 2 drafts, then looking at the history of failed QB's this franchise has tried to acquire since Jim Kelly. What is the constant that has remained the same with the Buffalo Bills since the Jim Kelly days and Bill Polian / John Butler / AJ Smith leaving....total ineptitude at drafting

 

 

 

What is the weakest area of the team? The team is desperate for players who can stop the run, kinda like a priority right? Then you can expect them to ignore DT and LB until the later rounds!

 

Ralph Wilson stated early last season that the bills would draft a QB, and I'm pretty certain that Cam Newton would sell a whole bunch of season tickets for ole ralphie

 

Do you really trust Chan Gailey to coach up Cam Newton? The thing is... I don't trust this offensive guru to properly develop the guy. He already failed at making Trent Edwards better, and spent the entire offseason - preseason trying.... then he outright cuts him....then we saw Brohm fail in his one start.

 

Do you think the O line is fine? The Last I heard from Nix and Gailey about the O line is that they will keep Wood at center, and the line should be fine....maybe fine against bad teams. This team still needs a quality LT-RT and then guard if Wood moves to center. You put a rook QB behind that PoS O line and he will get killed. Fitz made that line look way better then it really is, and even with Fitz as QB they still don't run the ball very well, Fred Jackson can't be expected to continue to make the first 3 tacklers miss on every play.

 

Can Fred Jackson carry a full NFL RB load 200-300+ carries? Even though the team took Spiller in last years draft in the first round, the kid isn't an every down back, plus he can't block. Fred Jackson is great, but he can't be expected to be the full time starter and carry the ball 300 times a season as he is older and will wear down quicker if in that role, besides the guy is a brilliant 3rd down back in pass receiving, blocking, and running. Remind me again why the bills chose Spiller....well nvm. The bills still need a 1st & 2nd down bruising RB to fill the void left by Marshawn Lynch

 

 

Maybe its me, but the more moves this team makes it seems the further away they are.... kinda like one step forward and two steps back. Anyway, the Bills should be in the forefront to draft Andrew Luck with the 1st overall next year

Edited by Harvey lives
Posted (edited)

I don't think the Rams regret taking Bradford. I think they would have regrets if they'd taken Clausen.

 

There may be a franchise QB in this year's draft. The question is "who?" There is no one I see who stands out without serious questions. But maybe that's just me.

 

From WalterFootball on 2010 QB prospects:

4/9/10: Jimmy Clausen completed 57-of-59 passes at his Pro Day, with the two misfires coming on fade routes to a relatively slow receiver (should have been Michael Floyd). Clausen is still arguably the top quarterback in this class.

1/3/10: Jimmy Clausen has declared for the 2010 NFL Draft. <...>Jimmy Clausen has a great shot at going No. 1. <...>The Rams would be making a grave mistake by eschewing Clausen.

 

I remember reading similar things from Kiper and a couple other "big shot" draft analysts.

 

To say there was only one highly ranked QB in the draft last year is 20-20 hindsight at its best.

 

Walter Football isn't really a definitive source. You're confusing draftnicks with GMs.

 

GMs did not think Colt McCoy or Jimmy Clausen were first round material, evidenced by the fact that no one took him in the first round.

Further evidenced by the fact that both Cleveland and Carolina are in draftnick discussions about taking a QB in the 1st.

 

But yes Draftnicks did talk about the 2010 QB class even though it was probably the worst class in a long time, and although its very early the 2012 after Luck is looking pretty iffy.

 

I think Newton has 1st round material. Gabbert was the #1 High School QB and did Ok to well in College, but looks the part of a QB. Even thought draftnick's slam Lurch(Mallet) I think he may actually be higher regarded by GMs then draftnicks may be aware.

 

Ponder is looking the part, the concerns with injury may not be elevated yet but he could have what it takes to make it the NFL. I could see Miami or Jacksonville "reaching" for Ponder at 15\16 if they think he could be "the man." Knowing that there is no way Ponder is there for Jacksonville in the second and Miami traded their second for Marshall so what better way to make an impact with limited picks then to get your QB of the future.

 

There will be 2 QBs taken in the first for sure, if you look at the top of the draft. 4\16 picks are a 100% settled at QB (depending on the Palmer situation) I personally wouldn't be surprised if 4 QBs go in the 1st.

 

If Carolina, just like Buffalo think that there is a QB there that could be "The Man" it would be the most prudent to take them.

 

I'm not a GM (how do you get to be one?) but given their access to interview these QBs and the QB's references/known associates its not unlikely for a QB to shoot to #1, especially a talent with the ceiling of Newton.

 

Carolina (2-14) - needs a QB

Denver (4-12) - not likely to take a QB

Buffalo (4-12) - needs a QB

Cincinnati (4-12) - might need a QB

Arizona (5-11) - needs a QB in a major way

Cleveland (5-11) - needs a QB

San Francisco (6-10)- needs a QB

Tennessee (6-10) - needs a QB

Dallas (6-10) - Romo(although the team arguably played better without him or was it the coaching)

Washington (6-10) - probably needs a QB

Houston (6-10) - Schuab

Minnesota (6-10) - needs a QB in a major way

Detroit (6-10) - Stafford (although dude can't stay healthy)

St. Louis (7-9) - Bradford

Miami (7-9) - needs a QB

Jacksonville (8-8) - might need a QB

 

I tend to agree with the OP. If Carolina thinks that one of these QBs is "the man" they will go with a QB.

Edited by Why So Serious?
Posted (edited)

Let me ask a few questions...Do you really honestly trust this band of of clowns to schlep to the podium in this upcoming draft and choose a viable prospect at any position? Considering they chose Aaron Maybin and CJ Spiller the last 2 drafts, then looking at the history of failed QB's this franchise has tried to acquire since Jim Kelly. What is the constant that has remained the same with the Buffalo Bills since the Jim Kelly days and Bill Polian / John Butler / AJ Smith leaving....total ineptitude at drafting

 

 

Irrelevant they're not going anywhere. What does it matter.

 

What is the weakest area of the team? The team is desperate for players who can stop the run, kinda like a priority right? Then you can expect them to ignore DT and LB until the later rounds!

 

What is the strength?

 

Ralph Wilson stated early last season that the bills would draft a QB, and I'm pretty certain that Cam Newton would sell a whole bunch of season tickets for ole ralphie

Why is Ralph Wilson trying to sell tickets a bad thing?

 

 

Do you really trust Chan Gailey to coach up Cam Newton? The thing is... I don't trust this offensive guru to properly develop the guy. He already failed at making Trent Edwards better, and spent the entire offseason - preseason trying.... then he outright cuts him....then we saw Brohm fail in his one start.

 

 

Yes he did a great job identifying that Trent was hopeless in game situations, and he coached up Fitz pretty well.

 

Do you think the O line is fine? The Last I heard from Nix and Gailey about the O line is that they will keep Wood at center, and the line should be fine....maybe fine against bad teams. This team still needs a quality LT-RT and then guard if Wood moves to center. You put a rook QB behind that PoS O line and he will get killed. Fitz made that line look way better then it really is, and even with Fitz as QB they still don't run the ball very well, Fred Jackson can't be expected to continue to make the first 3 tacklers miss on every play.

The O-Line has two Top 50 picks, and a LT that played well in 2010. You can fill in a RT or Guard through the draft and FA and the improvement continues. There is Nothing left from the 2008 one of the Worst O-Lines in NFL history.

 

 

Can Fred Jackson carry a full NFL RB load 200-300+ carries? Even though the team took Spiller in last years draft in the first round, the kid isn't an every down back, plus he can't block. Fred Jackson is great, but he can't be expected to be the full time starter and carry the ball 300 times a season as he is older and will wear down quicker if in that role, besides the guy is a brilliant 3rd down back in pass receiving, blocking, and running. Remind me again why the bills chose Spiller....well nvm. The bills still need a 1st & 2nd down bruising RB to fill the void left by Marshawn Lynch

 

 

Maybe its me, but the more moves this team makes it seems the further away they are.... kinda like one step forward and two steps back. Anyway, the Bills should be in the forefront to draft Andrew Luck with the 1st overall next year

It is you. You should probably kill yourself. :death:

Edited by Why So Serious?
Posted

Maybe its me, but the more moves this team makes it seems the further away they are.... kinda like one step forward and two steps back. Anyway, the Bills should be in the forefront to draft Andrew Luck with the 1st overall next year

When the Bills started the season in free fall, there were those that jokingly posted that going 0-16 was The Plan that Nix and Gailey had masterminded so that they could draft Luck or 'insert top QB name here'.

 

Actually, I'm not sure if they were joking. B-)

Posted

I love all the talk about Buddy being interested in Cam Newton... It appears other teams are watering at the mouth to also get him... If they think he will be gone at #3, maybe Nix can get a good trade for the pick. Bills need additional draft picks. What a better way then to say, he may pick him. He is planting seeds if you ask me...

 

When it comes down to the first two picks for the Bills, if no trade is possible, I believe Von Miller and Ponder are the players who will be chosen...... It is strickly a guessing game right now and everyone is right untill the draft...Go Bills

 

Hope you are right but no miller or ponder please, hopefully it will be Quinn and Paea who may drop because of injury.

Posted

I've come to the conclusion that Cam Newton will become the first pick in this draft. I was just on a Carolina Panther message board and there's a 62 page thread regarding Newton (and his recent workout) that started only two days ago. That is the kind of "Super Juice" a team that struggles offensively wants with the number one pick. This time last year, Bradford started out as the 10-12th pick until his stock surged and the same thing is going to happen (for differing reasons) with the supremely talented Newton. Once the experts come around and literally start drooling and hyperventilating over him like Trent Dilfer did, the writing's on the wall.

 

The only way I see Newton being drafted by the Bills is if they offer them Fitzpatrick and their 2nd pick to switch the 1st and 3rd picks.

 

It will go...

 

1. Newton/Panthers

2. Peterson/Broncos

3. Green or Fairley/Bills - it all depends on how Nick Fairley checks out maturity-wise or not

 

I hope the Panthers do take Newton, so that the bills will select an LB or DT to help the run defense.

 

Newton grades out as a top 15 pick , most teams will grade him as a middle first or late first rounder, and a project like Tim Tebow. Granted Newton has better mechanics and not as many technique flaws as Tebow. But he is a one look and run QB, if the first look isn't open he will run, that doesn't work in the NFL !

 

The top graded QB from last year and this year was Sam Bradford, he even graded out better then Andrew Luck . There is no #1 overall QB in this years draft from what I've seen, I can only hope the Bills don't get caught up in all the Newton hype and use that #3 on defense.l

Posted

they openly talked about how much they liked Spiller last year and how they wanted a "waterbug" RB.

Apparently nobody believed them until they raced to the podium and picked him.

Maybe that was all part of their elaborate ruse so that team would really believe they were interested in Newton and be forced to pay a King's ransom for our pick. Or, just maybe, they like Newton and are strongly considering drafting him.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted (edited)

3) Do you know the winning quarterbacks for the past 10 SB teams?: Let me renind you: Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Brad Johnson and Tom Brady.

6 of those 7 different winning SB QB's are franchise QB's and everyone of them are still top 5 QB's in the NFL today. Brad Johnson is the only one of those 10 that we might compare favorably to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but even he had a better career then Fitzy to this point in Fitzy's career.

(....)

No, the smart choice to choose the QB first, and work on the rest of the team second. That formula has been proven 100% CORRECT in about 90% of the franchises that have gone on to win Super Bowls. I like taking the 90% correct route myself, but that is just my own humble opinion.

 

I'm really curious what analysis shows you that the formula "draft the QB first and work on the rest of the team second" 1) exists 2) has been proven 100% CORRECT in about 90% of the franchises that have gone on to win superbowls? Could you share?

 

As a formula for rebuilding, wouldn't you have to show that to worked for ALL or MOST TEAMS THAT TRY IT? I mean, if 10 teams try your formula, 1 goes to the superbowl, and 9 spend a decade of futility, we'd all agree maybe it's not the best path, yes?

 

For example, the Stillers are noted for Dfence. 'Tis true that they won the SB the year after drafting Roeth, but their D also went from 15th (2003) to 1st to 3rd which might lead one to conclude that maturation of players already in place had much to do with that, vs. "choose the QB 1st work on the rest of the team second".

 

New England. Drafted Brady in 2000 as a backup to Mr. Franchise #1 Pick of 1993 Bledsoe. Kinda looks like their top draft picks 1999-2001 were all spent on OL and Dfense. Maybe, just maybe, they wasted Bledsoe's best years trying to build the team around him? Brady was kind of an anomoly, the HOF franchise QB that came out of nowhere, not sure how he argues for drafting a QB high overall. They tried that with Bledsoe and it was only partially successful, right?

 

Indianapolis Colts. They come closest to your formula. They built their OL with top picks b4 Manning and won based on offense up to 2005, when they finally put a D together and went to the SB in 2006. I think you could make an argument for them drafting the QB first and building the team around him, except for having drafted OT's 1st and 2nd round the year before. I give you the Colts as evidence.

 

Let's try N'Orleans. Hmmm, I don't think they argue your formula. They improved dramatically the year they signed Brees, but they also changed head coaches and improved from 28th to 13th on D. So while Brees had an immediate positive impact, hard to argue that they built the team around him. They also didn't draft him, they signed him as a proven winner FA from SD. I'm not clear how he argues we should draft a QB #3 overall.

 

Green Bay. They were 13-3 and had the #6 defense in the NFL the year before Rodgers took over as starter from Mr Franchise Favre, who was acquired in a trade. The Packers also changed head coaches the year Favre started and had been busy drafting on D b4 Favre arrived. Not sure how they fit the "choose the QB 1st work on the rest second" model.

 

Brad Johnson -- HO! Tampa Bay is a fine COUNTEREXAMPLE. They took 3 shots at drafting a franchise QB - Young #1 USFL supp, Testeverde #1 overall, Dilfer #6 overall. Meanwhile they failed to "build the team around" any of those guys, and suffered through about 15 years of mediocrity before finally winning the Superbowl with a strong defense and a 9th round draft choice on his 3rd team (who happens IMO to be a pretty good QB esp. during the 1st decade of his career - I'll stack him up against Eli Manning and Sanchez any day - but I digress)

 

Perhaps I'm obtuse, but I'm just not seeing this clear pattern

 

OK, where was I? 1) waiting to be persuaded by your strong statistics that drafting Mr Franchise QB 1st and building the team next is the clear path for a sucky team to get to the SB - as shown by other sucky teams who drafted a QB in the top of the 1st round and went to the SB after building the team around him

2) waiting to be persuaded that for recent teams who went to Superbowl, drafting a QB 1st and building the team around him was actually how they did it.

Edited by Hopeful
Posted

:D

Irrelevant they're not going anywhere. What does it matter..... I agree, particually in terms of wins with this bunch of idiots running the show

 

What is the strength? You tell me, they went from bad at 6-10 to worse at 4-12

 

Why is Ralph Wilson trying to sell tickets a bad thing? Because that is all he cares about. Things would be very different if he cared more about winning then selling tickets

 

 

Yes he did a great job identifying that Trent was hopeless in game situations, and he coached up Fitz pretty well. Why then did he waste an entire off season -preseason and 2 games on the guy ? Fitz was already acknowladged to be better then Edwards by last season's coaching staff when Edwards was benched and replaced by Fitz.

 

 

The O-Line has two Top 50 picks, and a LT that played well in 2010. You can fill in a RT or Guard through the draft and FA and the improvement continues. There is Nothing left from the 2008 one of the Worst O-Lines in NFL history. You mean the LT that played poorly against the better teams, like Fitz running for his life against the Jets. Then perhaps another Cornell Green at 3 mill per at RT again, when players off the street played better? Did you miss the part about Fitz making a below average line look decent? How well did that line look with Brian Brohm behind center?

 

 

It is you. You should probably kill yourself. :death:I would never do something that foolish because the team I happen to like is run by morons...however, you can most certainly go F yourself though :D

Posted

But he is a one look and run QB, if the first look isn't open he will run, that doesn't work in the NFL !

 

 

worked pretty good for Vick

 

 

what does not work in the NFL is being indecisive in the pocket and not doing anything

 

QBs that can't decide what to do are the ones that fail miserably.

 

If an OC has a brain and designs plays to take advantage of matchups out of spread offense, then a QB is not rquired to make multiple reads all over the field.

 

 

Posted

worked pretty good for Vick

 

 

what does not work in the NFL is being indecisive in the pocket and not doing anything

 

QBs that can't decide what to do are the ones that fail miserably.

 

If an OC has a brain and designs plays to take advantage of matchups out of spread offense, then a QB is not rquired to make multiple reads all over the field.

 

 

Actually it didn't, it took going to prison to change his work habits...it took Andy Reid to help him become a better pocket QB.

 

No NFL team wants their 50 million dollar QB running if they can make throws like Aaron Rodgers / Tom Brady, running is a last resort after all the check downs are covered and the back in the flat is covered.

 

Does Cam Newton like dogs....?

Posted (edited)

I don't think the Rams regret taking Bradford. I think they would have regrets if they'd taken Clausen.

 

There may be a franchise QB in this year's draft. The question is "who?" There is no one I see who stands out without serious questions. But maybe that's just me.

 

From WalterFootball on 2010 QB prospects:

4/9/10: Jimmy Clausen completed 57-of-59 passes at his Pro Day, with the two misfires coming on fade routes to a relatively slow receiver (should have been Michael Floyd). Clausen is still arguably the top quarterback in this class.

1/3/10: Jimmy Clausen has declared for the 2010 NFL Draft. <...>Jimmy Clausen has a great shot at going No. 1. <...>The Rams would be making a grave mistake by eschewing Clausen.

 

I remember reading similar things from Kiper and a couple other "big shot" draft analysts.

 

To say there was only one highly ranked QB in the draft last year is 20-20 hindsight at its best.

 

Clausen was taken in the range in which he was rated by the pro scouts. The issue regarding Bradford had to do with his health. Once he was deemed as healthy he was considered the top qb in the draft. The Rams were never going to take Jimmy C with the first pick because he didn't warrant being taken that high.

 

You can find a lot of hype commentaries by the amateur draft experts but there were reasons why Clausen was bypassed in the first round, including the Bills. For me, I believe the reports that the Bills were interested in moving back into the first round to take Tebow, but Denver beat us to the punch. They didn't have the same interest in Clausen.

 

In fairness to Clausen being drafted in the second round is not an insult to his abilities. He can develop into a good qb. He struggled in his rookie year on a very bad team. Just as any other young qb would have.

Edited by JohnC
Posted (edited)

You wouldn't hear me complaining. But, it makes too much sense, no?

 

If the Bills rate Newton and Gabbert with high first round rankings it would be foolish to bypass them, even for a number of picks. The Bills were one of the worst teams in the league. Why not use their low ranking to get the caliber of qb that can only be had by a very high pick?

 

Drafting a qb in the first round is not going to slow down the multi-year rebuilding project. It will enhance it. Why would it be wrong to solidify the most important position on a team?

Edited by JohnC
Posted

If the Bills Packers rate Newton and Gabbert with high first round rankings it would be foolish to bypass them, even for a number of picks. The Bills were one of the worst teams in the league. Why not use their low ranking to get the caliber of qb that can only be had by a very high pick?

 

Drafting a qb in the first round is not going to slow down the multi-year rebuilding project. It will enhance it. Why would it be wrong to solidify the most important position on a team?

Fixed.

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